All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angles – Wando Stakes

Wando S.
8.5F on All Weather (April 21)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 28 stakes at 8.5 furlongs for 3-year-olds over Woodbine main track
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 32 contenders, 11 winners (34%, $26.30 flat win bet profit, 141 ROI%, 21 in the money 65%)

Woodbine kicks off its 2018 season on Saturday with a two-stakes card. Recently crowned Canadian Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd will be odds on to capture his ninth straight in the Jacques Cartier Stakes but the co-featured Wando Stakes figures to be a much more interesting handicapping puzzle. The 1 1/16 mile contest has attracted a field of 7 sophomores, some of whom have their sights set on the $1 million Queen's Plate on June 30.

Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze the last 28 three-year-old stakes going 1 1/16 miles on the Woodbine Polytrack course we find that Speed This Distance has been key for this race type. 11 of the 32 contenders (34%) have had found the winner's circle with another 10 filling out the extactor and triactor spots (66% in-the-money). A $2 flat bet on these contenders has shown a $26.30 win profit buoyed by Shaman Ghost, hero of the 2016 Marine Stakes at 13-1.

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Sharp Angles – Arkansas Derby

Arkansas Derby
9F on Dirt (April 14)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: last 5 runnings of the Arkansas Derby
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 5 contenders, 3 winners (60%, $7.40 flat win bet profit, 174 ROI%, 4 in the money 80%, $9.20 place bet profit, $4.50 show bet profit)

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby had drawn another field worthy of its grade with the unbeaten sensation Magnum Moon and Solomini (a G1 winner until the stewards intervened) the headliners. Using Betmix Angler to analyze the past five runnings of the Arkansas Derby we find that Best Lifetime Speed has been a strong predictor of success.

In fact, three of the past five winners, along with a 7-1 runner up, have ranked first in this factor with positive ROIs showing across the board. It's true that favored American Pharoah (2015) and Classic Empire (2017) are among the three winners. But the latter entered last year's contest under a cloud of uncertainty after a curious third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes. The sample also includes 2013 winner Overanlyze who was among three contenders under 4-1 (including eventual Preakness hero Oxbow). This year's race shapes up similarly on the tote board and this Sharp Angle can provide an extra degree of confidence when deciding between closely matched runners.

How to apply this Sharp Angle:
Using the Factor Ranking sliders in Betmix Birddog, find the horse that ranks 1st in Best Lifetime Speed.

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Sharp Angles – Fred W. Hooper S.

Fred W. Hooper S.
8F on Dirt (January 27)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 13 one mile Gulfstream Park graded stakes on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 6 winners (46%, $16.60 flat win bet profit, 163 ROI%, 9 in the money 69%, $6.20 place bet profit, $0.30 show bet profit)

Anchored by the second Pegasus World Cup Invitational at Gulfstream Park, Saturday, January 27 is the first ‘event day’ on the 2018 thoroughbred racing calendar. While the big race is expected to be a going away party for the odds-on Gun Runner, the rest of the card offers some intriguing betting opportunities. The Fred W. Hooper Stakes, for example, has drawn a competitive field of 11 and we've found a profitable Sharp Angle to help formulate a betting strategy for the race.

By using the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze the past 13 one mile dirt Graded stakes at Gulfstream, we found that Average Last 3 Late Pace has pointed the winners of nearly half of those races. Another three runners ranking first in this factor hit the board with positive ROIs generated in the win, place and show slots.

How to apply this Sharp Angle:
Using the Factor Ranking sliders in Betmix Birddog find the horse that ranks 1st in Average Last 3 Late Pace.

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Sharp Angles – Las Cienegas S.

Las Cienegas S. (G3)
6.5F on the turf at Santa Anita (January 20)
Races Analyzed: 32 graded stakes at 6.5 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Earnings This Track + 1st or 2nd in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 8 winners (53%, $20.60 flat win bet profit, 166 ROI%), 13 in the money (86%, $7.40 flat place bet profit, $2.40 flat show bet profit)

The 6.5-furlong sprints on the downhill hill turf course at Santa Anita are the most unique races in North America and present a most unique handicapping challenge as well. With several years of horse racing data from the gorgeous Arcadia, California course, Betmix users are in a unique position to isolate the most important factors in these races.

Using Betmix Angler we find that familiarity and a turn of foot has been successful in this race type. A total of 15 runners in the past 32 graded stakes ‘down the hill’ have ranked 1st in Average Earnings This Track AND 1st or 2nd in Last Turn Time. Eight (53%) have found the winner's circle and, incredibly, only two of the 15 contenders has failed to hit the board.

How to apply this Sharp Angle:
Using the Factor Ranking sliders in Betmix Birddog find the horse that ranks 1st in Average Earnings This Track AND among the top 2 in Last Turn Time.

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Pedigree Handicapping – 2017 Sprint Sires

In recent posts we've been highlighting some of the powerful pedigree data that can be mined within the Betmix Angler handicapping software. This time we take a look at some of the most successful sprint sires of 2017. We started with the top Top 20 sires by 2017 North American earnings and then used Angler to gather sprint race figures for those 20 sires.

Into Mischief is the leader by 2017 sprint win % at 18.82% followed closely by Ghostzapper (18.56%) and Tapit (18.55%). All three sires have a better sprint win % than their overall 2017 win % as well (noted by green shading in chart below).

Medaglia d'Oro is next in line with a 17.86% win rate and he's the only sire in this sample with a positive $2 Win ROI. That number is buoyed by $135 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint upsetter Bar of Gold, but his sprint runners also won at an higher clip than his general runner population in 2017.

Pedigree Handicapping Visual

 

Sharp Angles – Mucho Macho Man S.

Mucho Macho Man S.
8F on Dirt (January 6)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 16 one mile Gulfstream Park stakes for 3YOs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 19 contenders, 9 winners (47.4%, $16.40 flat win bet profit, 143 ROI%, 16 in the money, $16.20 place bet profit, $4.00 show bet profit)

Here we go! The road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby kicks off with the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita and the $100,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park. An octet of three-year-old square off in the latter, going a flat mile in South Florida. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we find that Best Lifetime Speed has been a key factor in these Gulfstream 8 furlong stakes for sophomores. While it’s no surprise that the race would tend to go to the fastest horse, the payouts have been good the Angle has pointed to 4 of the 5 winners of this race, including last year’s $11.40 winner Sonic Mule.

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Pedigree Handicapping (5 Blogs)

Betmix Pedigree Handicapping Visual

Click to read:

2017 Sprint Sires

Into Mischief is the leader by 2017 sprint win % at 18.82%...

2017 Stakes Sires

Medaglia d'Oro's stakes runners have produced a huge win bet return...

2017 Turf Sires

Our starting point is the list of top 15 North American sires of turf starters in 2017.

2017 Juvenile Sires

The juvenile progeny of Canadian stallion Silent Name have been very kind to win bettors in 2017

2017 First Crop Sires

Looking at the Top 15 Freshman sires (according to Bloodhorse.com) we find that three have shown a ($2) flat win bet profit on all their starters so far

Sharp Angles – Tropical Park Derby & Oaks

Tropical Park Derby & Tropical Park Oaks.
8.5F on Turf (December 30)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 46 Gulfstream Park turf stakes for 3YOs at 8 & 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: 45 contenders, 12 winners (26.7%, $48.20 flat win bet profit, 153 ROI%)

Sophomore turfers get one last chance for a blacktype win against their own age group in Saturday’s Tropical Park Derby and Tropical Park Oaks. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze middle distance Gulfstream Park turf stakes for 3-year-olds we find an emerging Angle for this race type. Average Turf Earnings pointed to the double digit winners of both these contests last year - Giant Surprise, winner of the Derby at 8.90-1 and Ultra Brat who lit up the tote board in the Oaks at $36.70-1. The trend continued into 2017 with odds-on Adorable Miss taking the July 4 Martha Washington Stakes.

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Pedigree Handicapping – 2017 Stakes Sires

The stallions at the top the Blood-Horse General Sire are typically there because they consistently sire winners of North America's richest stakes races. This is certainly a useful snapshot for breeders. But what about bettors?

Using the Sire filter in Betmix Angler we can find out. We looked at all the stakes starters by the top 15 General Sires and the chart below shows the results. Medaglia d'Oro's stakes runners have produced a huge win bet return buoyed by his two big Breeders' Cup champions, Filly & Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold ($135.40) and Turf winner Talismatic ($30.20). Even outside of those two runners the Darley stallion was a boon for thoroughbred handicappers. He had two other $30-plus stakes winners and the 26.14% win percentage by his 2017 stakes starters is second only to Ghostzapper's 27.78%.

2017 Sire Chart

Sharp Angles – Springboard Mile & Trapeze S.

Springboard Mile S. & Trapeze S.
8F on Dirt (December 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 Remington Park two-year-old Stakes at 8F
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 2 winners (20%, $50.60 flat win bet profit, 268 ROI%), 8 win/place/show (53%, $34.10 place bet profit, $7.10 show bet profit).

Remington Park has invested in its late season juvenile Stakes in recent years, a move that's paid big dividends. Sunday's $400,000 Springboard Mile S. has not only drawn a full and competitive field of 12 from around the country, the race has also been anointed an official points race for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

Runners proven at the Springboard's 8 furlong distance have been profitable to bettors over the past four years with a $50.60 flat win bet profit posted by contenders ranking first in Speed This Distance. Over 50% of the qualifiers have hit the board while showing healthy place and show profits as well.

This Sharp Angle can also be applied to the Springboard's sister race, the $100,000 Trapeze S. on the same Sunday card in Oklahoma.

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