All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angles – Las Cienegas S.

Las Cienegas S. (G3)
6.5F on the turf at Santa Anita (January 20)
Races Analyzed: 32 graded stakes at 6.5 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Earnings This Track + 1st or 2nd in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 8 winners (53%, $20.60 flat win bet profit, 166 ROI%), 13 in the money (86%, $7.40 flat place bet profit, $2.40 flat show bet profit)

The 6.5-furlong sprints on the downhill hill turf course at Santa Anita are the most unique races in North America and present a most unique handicapping challenge as well. With several years of horse racing data from the gorgeous Arcadia, California course, Betmix users are in a unique position to isolate the most important factors in these races.

Using Betmix Angler we find that familiarity and a turn of foot has been successful in this race type. A total of 15 runners in the past 32 graded stakes ‘down the hill’ have ranked 1st in Average Earnings This Track AND 1st or 2nd in Last Turn Time. Eight (53%) have found the winner's circle and, incredibly, only two of the 15 contenders has failed to hit the board.

How to apply this Sharp Angle:
Using the Factor Ranking sliders in Betmix Birddog find the horse that ranks 1st in Average Earnings This Track AND among the top 2 in Last Turn Time.

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Pedigree Handicapping – 2017 Sprint Sires

In recent posts we've been highlighting some of the powerful pedigree data that can be mined within the Betmix Angler handicapping software. This time we take a look at some of the most successful sprint sires of 2017. We started with the top Top 20 sires by 2017 North American earnings and then used Angler to gather sprint race figures for those 20 sires.

Into Mischief is the leader by 2017 sprint win % at 18.82% followed closely by Ghostzapper (18.56%) and Tapit (18.55%). All three sires have a better sprint win % than their overall 2017 win % as well (noted by green shading in chart below).

Medaglia d'Oro is next in line with a 17.86% win rate and he's the only sire in this sample with a positive $2 Win ROI. That number is buoyed by $135 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint upsetter Bar of Gold, but his sprint runners also won at an higher clip than his general runner population in 2017.

Pedigree Handicapping Visual

 

Sharp Angles – Mucho Macho Man S.

Mucho Macho Man S.
8F on Dirt (January 6)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 16 one mile Gulfstream Park stakes for 3YOs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 19 contenders, 9 winners (47.4%, $16.40 flat win bet profit, 143 ROI%, 16 in the money, $16.20 place bet profit, $4.00 show bet profit)

Here we go! The road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby kicks off with the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita and the $100,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park. An octet of three-year-old square off in the latter, going a flat mile in South Florida. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we find that Best Lifetime Speed has been a key factor in these Gulfstream 8 furlong stakes for sophomores. While it’s no surprise that the race would tend to go to the fastest horse, the payouts have been good the Angle has pointed to 4 of the 5 winners of this race, including last year’s $11.40 winner Sonic Mule.

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Pedigree Handicapping (5 Blogs)

Betmix Pedigree Handicapping Visual

Click to read:

2017 Sprint Sires

Into Mischief is the leader by 2017 sprint win % at 18.82%...

2017 Stakes Sires

Medaglia d'Oro's stakes runners have produced a huge win bet return...

2017 Turf Sires

Our starting point is the list of top 15 North American sires of turf starters in 2017.

2017 Juvenile Sires

The juvenile progeny of Canadian stallion Silent Name have been very kind to win bettors in 2017

2017 First Crop Sires

Looking at the Top 15 Freshman sires (according to Bloodhorse.com) we find that three have shown a ($2) flat win bet profit on all their starters so far

Sharp Angles – Tropical Park Derby & Oaks

Tropical Park Derby & Tropical Park Oaks.
8.5F on Turf (December 30)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 46 Gulfstream Park turf stakes for 3YOs at 8 & 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: 45 contenders, 12 winners (26.7%, $48.20 flat win bet profit, 153 ROI%)

Sophomore turfers get one last chance for a blacktype win against their own age group in Saturday’s Tropical Park Derby and Tropical Park Oaks. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze middle distance Gulfstream Park turf stakes for 3-year-olds we find an emerging Angle for this race type. Average Turf Earnings pointed to the double digit winners of both these contests last year - Giant Surprise, winner of the Derby at 8.90-1 and Ultra Brat who lit up the tote board in the Oaks at $36.70-1. The trend continued into 2017 with odds-on Adorable Miss taking the July 4 Martha Washington Stakes.

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Pedigree Handicapping – 2017 Stakes Sires

The stallions at the top the Blood-Horse General Sire are typically there because they consistently sire winners of North America's richest stakes races. This is certainly a useful snapshot for breeders. But what about bettors?

Using the Sire filter in Betmix Angler we can find out. We looked at all the stakes starters by the top 15 General Sires and the chart below shows the results. Medaglia d'Oro's stakes runners have produced a huge win bet return buoyed by his two big Breeders' Cup champions, Filly & Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold ($135.40) and Turf winner Talismatic ($30.20). Even outside of those two runners the Darley stallion was a boon for thoroughbred handicappers. He had two other $30-plus stakes winners and the 26.14% win percentage by his 2017 stakes starters is second only to Ghostzapper's 27.78%.

2017 Sire Chart

Sharp Angles – Springboard Mile & Trapeze S.

Springboard Mile S. & Trapeze S.
8F on Dirt (December 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 Remington Park two-year-old Stakes at 8F
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 2 winners (20%, $50.60 flat win bet profit, 268 ROI%), 8 win/place/show (53%, $34.10 place bet profit, $7.10 show bet profit).

Remington Park has invested in its late season juvenile Stakes in recent years, a move that's paid big dividends. Sunday's $400,000 Springboard Mile S. has not only drawn a full and competitive field of 12 from around the country, the race has also been anointed an official points race for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

Runners proven at the Springboard's 8 furlong distance have been profitable to bettors over the past four years with a $50.60 flat win bet profit posted by contenders ranking first in Speed This Distance. Over 50% of the qualifiers have hit the board while showing healthy place and show profits as well.

This Sharp Angle can also be applied to the Springboard's sister race, the $100,000 Trapeze S. on the same Sunday card in Oklahoma.

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Pedigree Handicapping – Turf Sires

In our first couple Pedigree Handicapping posts we focused on the wagering prospects of runners by the leading First Crop and overall Juvenile sires in North America. This time we shift our focus to turf sires.

Our starting point is the list of top 15 North American sires of turf starters in 2017. Surprisingly, only one of these stallions shows a profit of any kind with their 2017 grass runners. That sire is Coolmore's Giant's Causeway. A $2 win bet on all of his turf starters in 2017 has yielded a profit of $165.90. Five of his highest-priced winners have come in claiming races this year, including a $101 winner in a $20,000 claimer last June at Delaware Park and the $96.40 winner Madeyourpoint, who ran for a $16,000 tag at Laurel on November 4.

 

To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.

Pedigree Handicapping – Profitable Juvenile Sires

In our last Pedigree Handicapping post we highlighted the Betmix Angler Sires feature and examined the ROI of runners by the Top 15 First Crop sires. This time we take a look at the Top 15 overall North American juvenile sires.

The juvenile progeny of Canadian stallion Silent Name have been very kind to win bettors in 2017 with a nearly $50 win ROI. Two-year-old runners by the late Kentucky sire Exchange Rate certainly merit extra consideration as well. They've collectively shown double-digit ROI's across the board in 2017.

This chart shows the return on all North American juvenile starters sired by the Top 15 juvenile sires (according to bloodhorse.com) through November 21.

To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.

Pedigree Handicapping – Profitable First Crop Sires

Sire statistics are a lesser-known feature within Betmix Angler and lesser known information can be a boon to thoroughbred handicappers. In the future, we'll be taking a more detailed look at how this unique info can be parsed and applied. Today we examine the early performance of North America's newest sires. Looking at the Top 15 Freshman sires (according to Bloodhorse.com) we find that three have shown a ($2) flat win bet profit on all their starters so far - New Year's Day, Animal Kingdom and Point of Entry. It may be wise to pay particular attention to runners by these stallions over the next few months. Point of Entry runners have been especially profitable with big place and show returns as well.

This chart shows the return on all North American starters sired by the Top 15 Freshman stallion through November 16.

To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.