Using Betmix to find longshots
The most important thing that Betmix offers its users is a consistent method for handicapping and the ability to quickly look at entire race cards to find horses worth betting.
Looking for races with potential longshot horses is a great way to use Betmix. In this example we will be using the Longshot45 mix, available for free to monthly subscribers in the MixLibrary. If you are a subscriber just go the MixLibrary and type “Longshot45″ into the search box then click the search button. When it comes up, click the “Save to MyMix” button and it will be available for you to use when handicapping any race.
How to use the Longshot45 Mix
The best way to use this mix is through the All Races Report. That view allows you to select a date and a racetrack, and apply a mix to the entire card. You can scroll through the results of every race. After you have selected your date and racetrack, select the Longshot45 Mix from your saved mixes. Every race on that card will now be shown ranking the horses using the Longshot45 Mix. This is a selective mix, so we are only going to be betting the top ranked horse that meets the following conditions.
1. Morning Line odds of 5:1 or greater
2. Last finish position 4th or better
3. No long layoffs (Greater than 60 days)
The above image shows the 2nd race from Churchill Downs on April 27th. As you can see, the top ranked horse using the Longshot45 mix has ML odds of 5:1, he finished 4th or better in his last race, and he is not coming off a long layoff (last race was 28 days ago).
The data below shows the results of using the Longshot45 mix at Churchill Downs during the 2013 Spring meet. Through May 18th there were 17 horses that qualified under the Mix conditions. If you would have bet $2 WPS on each of those horses you would have bet a total of $102 (17 x $6) and you would have collected $168.60, for a profit of $66.60 (65% ROI). If you had just bet $2 to win on each horse the total bet would have been $34 (17 x $2) and the return would have been $67.20 for a profit of $33.20 (97% ROI).
The point of this post is not to say that the Longshot45 Mix will show the same results at every racetrack or even that it will produce the same ROI at Churchill for the remainder of this meet. What we hope you take away from this post is how to use Betmix to screen races for playable horses, and to demonstrate that you shouldn’t bet every race – pick your spots!. We also hope that you will create your own Mixes for certain racetracks and conditions and create a set of rules to follow to find the most profitable betting scenarios. Betmix gives you a consistent handicapping method. When you combine a consistent method with solid money management rules you are well on your way to being a winning horseplayer.
Date Race # Horse Win Place Show
04/27 2 5 D’Wildcard 15.80 6.00 3.80
04/27 7 1 Destrehen 22.60 9.00 5.20
05/01 4 1 Scatman 0.00 0.00 3.60
05/01 10 6 Soto’s Hija 0.00 13.60 8.00
05/02 4 4 Bluebrass B. 0.00 4.00 3.00
05/03 2 7 Cora Mesa 0.00 0.00 0.00
05/03 4 8 Love Train 0.00 0.00 0.00
05/03 10 6 Positivley 0.00 0.00 0.00
05/04 7 8 Bryma 0.00 0.00 0.00
05/04 11 9 Overanlayze 0.00 0.00 0.00
05/04 13 5 Column 19.20 8.20 5.40
05/11 6 1 Chocolat City 0.00 0.00 0.00
05/11 10 9 Palazzo Babe 0.00 3.60 2.80
05/11 11 9 Lafitte 0.00 0.00 0.00
05/17 8 4 Barksdale 0.00 0.00 4.20
05/18 7 2 Southern S. 0.00 7.60 5.00
05/18 9 8 Treasured Up 9.60 4.80 3.60