Best Factors for Saratoga

July 21 is opening day at Saratoga! Let's take a look at the best 2 factor combinations using data over the last 3 years.

In our previous post for Del Mar stats, we looked at the best single factor for each race. At Saratoga we are going to use a combination of 2 factors for each race type.

The more factors you use in an Angle, the more accurate it will be, but if you use too many you run the risk of creating an Angle that rarely returns a result.

Think about it this way.  In every non-maiden race there is going to be a horse that is ranked 1st in Speed Last Race.  There may also be ties, so you could have 2 or 3 horses with the same speed score in their last race.  If that was the only factor you were using in your Angle, then it would find at least one horse in every race.

If you add another factor you start reducing the results.  If your Angle says a horse must be ranked 1st in Speed Last Race & ranked in the top 4 for Trainer Current Year, then it is very possible that you wont find a match - the horse ranked 1st in Speed Last Race may be ranked 6th in Trainer Current Year.  The more conditions you add the fewer results you will get. You need to find that "sweet spot".  You certainly want to use more than one factor in your Angles, but if you use too many you may be creating a very accurate angle, but it will very rarely find a matching horse.

In this table below we have some good 2 factor combos to use for races at Saratoga.  There is also a short videoto show you how to create an Angle and demonstrate how the results get narrowed when you add more conditions to your angles.

What does this data mean?
Take a look at the table above and find the section for Turf Route Races. Then, look for Allowance races. We can see that there were 165 allowance races run on the turf at a mile or over, and the best factor combination was being ranked 1st in Trainer Current Year and having run within the last 90 days.  If you bet $2 to win on every horse at Saratoga that met those conditions over the last 3 years you would have made a profit of $115.

Using this information in BetMix
There are several ways to use this in BetMix. You could create a mix for each race type that used the best factor for each race, you could simply look at the factor stats in BirdDog to identify the top ranked horse for each factor, or you could create Angles that identify the horses for you. This quick video below will show you how to create an Angle using multiple factors.  Its easy to do, and when you run your angles for the day you will always know where the best betting opportunities are.