Transylvania S. (G3)
8.5F on the turf at Keeneland (April 7)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes for 3YOs at 8.5F furlongs on turf
Date Range: April 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 3 winners (20%, $3.80 flat win bet profit, 112 ROI%), 6 first or second (40%, $2.40 flat place bet profit, 108 ROI%)
Opening day of the Keeneland Spring meeting signals the real end of winter for thoroughbred racing fans and handicappers. The first Spring card once again features the Transylvania Stakes (G3) for sophomore male turfers and we found a useful Angle for this contest.
To begin our search we first narrowed our criteria down to look only at Keeneland graded grass races for three-year-olds (male and female). We found there have been eight such races since 2013 and they've yielded 15 contenders ranked first in the In the Money % factor. 20% of these are winners who have shown a small flat win bet profit. In this case we can accept these figures because it's been especially predictive in the Transylvania with two recent winners - Shakhimat ($14.20) last opening day and Jack Milton ($7.20) in 2013. Three more runners have completed the exacta in this sample, including Up With the Birds who combined with Jack Milton for a $35 exacta.
How to play: find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse or horses ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Last week’s results:
Florida Derby: Gunnevera 3rd at $1.10-1, Talk Logistics 6th at $48-1, Coleman Rocky 7th at $103-1.
Mervin Muniz H.: Kasaqui 2nd at $1.90-1.
Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix