Wood Memorial (G2) & Gazelle S. (G2)
9F on the dirt at Aqueduct (April 8)
Races Analyzed: 16 graded stakes for 3YOs at 9 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Distance Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%, $12.10 flat win bet profit, 135 ROI%), 8 first or second (47%, $6.90 flat place bet profit, 120 ROI%)
Racing at Aqueduct has shifted from the Inner Dirt track to the main oval which allows for 9 furlong races. And there are two big ones this Saturday, the Wood Memorial and Gazelle Stakes, both Grade 2 stepping stones to the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs.
Looking at the past 16 graded dirt races for sophomores going 9 furlongs we find that Distance Pedigree Rating has been a predictive factor. This makes intuitive sense too as many of these contestants are trying 9 furlongs for the first time. In fact, the past two Wood winners have ranked first in this factor - Outwork ($6.80) last April and Frosted ($6.40) in 2015. We also find 2013 Gazelle heroine Close Hatches ($4.50) in this sample.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Distance Pedigree Rating slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
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