Tag Archives: Fair Grounds

Sharp Angles – Florida Derby & Mervin Muniz H.

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We've been on a very good roll with the Sharp Angles blog the past six weeks, pointing to a total of five winners from nine qualifying contenders. That's a 55% strike rate. The flat win bet ROI on all Sharp Angles plays so far in 2017 is now $8.20 and they've shown a small show bet profit as well. This week we're brining back a pair of winning Sharp Angles that can also be applied to two of the big races on the first 'Super Saturday' of the year.

Florida Derby (G1)
9F on the dirt at Gulfstream Park (April 1)
Races Analyzed: 15 dirt graded races at 9F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 9 winners (43%, $115.00 flat win bet profit, 373 ROI%, 11 total win/place, $16.10 flat place bet profit, 138 ROI%).

This Angle hit just last week when third choice Fear the Cowboy powered to victory in the Skip Away Stakes (G3). While that race is for older runners Last Turn Time has also pointed to the winners of three of the past four editions of the Florida Derby: Nyquist ($4.40) in 2016, Constitution ($7.60) in 2015 and Orb ($7.80) in 2013.

How to use this Sharp Angle: Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That horse is the Sharp Angles play.

Mervin Muniz H. (G2)
9F on the turf at Fair Grounds (April 1)
Races Analyzed: 9 graded stakes at 9F furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%, $14.60 flat win bet profit, 156 ROI%), 6 first or second (46%, $13.00 flat place bet profit, 150 ROI%)

We first highlighted this Angle back in late February for the Fair Grounds Handicap and got Enterprising home first at an $8.00 mutuel. It’s been especially effective in recent runners of the Mervin Muniz with three of the past four winners ranking first in Last Turn Time: Chocolate Ride in($10.60) 2015, Skyring ($17.40) in 2014 and Amira’s Prince ($4.60) in 2013.

How to use this Sharp Angle: Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That horse is the Sharp Angles play.

Last Week’s Results - Fear the Cowboy ($9.20) 1st in Skip Away Stakes.

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Sharp Angles – Fair Grounds H.

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Fair Grounds H. (G3)
9F on the turf at Fair Grounds (February 25)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes at 9F furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 3 winners (25%, $8.60 flat win bet profit, 135 ROI%), 5 first or second (41%, $11.20 flat place bet profit, 146 ROI%)

This week the racing world turns it’s attention to Fair Grounds in New Orleans where the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap is one of six stakes on the docket. The 9-furlong grass race serves as a prep for the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial H. over the same course & distance on April 1. We’ve uncovered a nice Sharp Angle that applies to both fixtures.

The last eight 9-furlongs turf graded stakes in the Big Easy have yielded a total of 12 contenders who’ve ranked first in Last Turn Time. Three of those (25%) have found the winner's circle, two at double digit odds. Among the group is Skyring, winner of the 2014 Muniz H. at nearly 8-1. He also qualified as a contender in that year's Fair Grounds H. where he ran second at 15-1.

Last Sharp Angles results: Imperial Hint ($7.60) & Never Gone South (37-1), 1st & 3rd in General George S. ($248 tri with favorite 2nd); Clothes Fall Off, 3rd at 8.30-1 in Barbara Fritchie S.

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Sharp Angles – Tiffany Lass Stakes

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Tiffany Lass S.
8.32F on the dirt at Fair Grounds
Races Analyzed: 10 dirt stakes for fillies & mares from 8-8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Purse Rank
Factor Stats: 16 overall qualifying horses; 4 winners (25%, 42.2 ROI%) & 12 win or place (75%, 115 ROI%)

belive-youThe four winners haven’t paid much, averaging less than even money, actually. 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can is largely responsible for the less-than-inspiring payouts, having won both the 2013 Tiffany Lass (when it was run in February) and the subsequent New Orleans Ladies S. at super-low odds. But with 75% of the qualifiers impacting the exacta Last Purse Rank appears to be the best place to start when handicapping these middle distance distaff stakes at Fair Grounds. This angle has also pointed to a pair of well-paying second-place finishers in 36-1 Private Promise and 8-1 Forest Lake.

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Dearest, 1st in Sugar Swirl S at 1.50-1 (defeating odds-on fave Stonetastic)

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