All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angle – Pegasus World Cup

Pegasus World Cup (G1)
9F on Dirt at Gulfstream Park (January 28)
Races Analyzed
: Last 29 Gulfstream Park 9-furlong Graded dirt stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 31 contenders, 14 winners (45%) $25.8 Win Return, 141 ROI%, 21 Place (67%) $19.70 Place Return, 26 Show (86%) $17.10 Show Return.

Racing fans will be treated to the first big Saturday of 2023 when Gulfstream Park offers its annual Pegasus World Cup card.

We turned to the Betmix online handicapping database for a deeper perspective on the Pegasus and the query turned up a positive handicapping factor.

The Speed Last Race factor has pointed to 45% winners in the 9-furlong dirt Graded Stakes at Gulfstream Park over the past 10 years, producing a very healthy $25.80 Win Return. The place/show returns are also will into green figures.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Speed Last Race slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angle – Leonatus S.

Leonatus S. at Turfway Park
8F on All Weather (January 21)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 23 8-furlong Stakes at Turfway Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer 2 Year Win % This Race Type
Factor Stats: 23 contenders, 5 winners (21%) $41.32 Win Return, (189 ROI%), 8 Place (34%) $25.64 Place Return, 10 Show (43%) $5.44 Show Return

A field of 9 sophomores line up for Saturday´s $125,000 Leonatus Stakes at the newly-reburbished Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky.

The group has tallied only 9 combined victories, none in Stakes, so we turned to the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database for insights on who may be sitting on a breakthrough performance.

Angler indicates that the Trainer 2 Year Win % This Race Type handicapping factor has proven lucrative in the 8-furlong Stakes at the Florence, Ky oval, producing 21% winners, 43% in the money finishes while generating positive across the board Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer 2 Year Win % This Race Type slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angle – Fifth Season S.

Fifth Season S. at Oaklawn Park
8F on Dirt (January 14)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 41 8-furlong non-graded main at Oaklawn
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 42 contenders, 13 winners (31%) $49.40 Win Return, (158 ROI%), 20 Place (47%) $24.60 Place Return, 28 Show (66%) $9.70 Show Return

The $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes, the Saturday feature at Oaklawn Park, has drawn a salty field of 10 seasoned older colts and geldings.

The field includes defending champ R Rated Superstar and Breeders´Cup veteran Ginobilli and we turned to the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database for clues to cashing.

Angler indicates that Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace has been highly predictive and lucrative in the 8-furlong listed stakes in Hot Springs, producing 30% winners, 66% in the money finishes and positive Returns across the board.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angle – Pippin S.

Pippin S.
8.5F on Dirt at Oaklawn Park (January 7, 2023)
Races Analyzed
: Last 48 Oaklawn Park 8.5-furlong non-graded stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Earnings Today´s Track
Factor Stats: 49 contenders, 17 winners (34%) $64.80 Win Return, 166 ROI%, 21 place/show (42%), 27 Show (55%).

A competitive field of 10 fillies and mares are set to square off in Saturday´s $150,000 Pippin Stakes on the road to the Grade 1 Apple Blossom S. at Oaklawn Park.

We fired up the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database to look for clues in the 8.5 furlong non graded Stakes at the Hot Springs oval and found that the Avg. Earnings Today´s Track has produced 34% winners and a mouth-watering $64.80 Win Return.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angle – Ft. Lauderdale S.

Ft. Lauderdale S. (G2)
9F on Turf at Gulfstream Park (December 31)
Races Analyzed
: Last 24 Gulfstream Park 9-furlong graded turf stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 7 winners (28%) $85.40 Win Return, 270 ROI%, 12 place/show (32%) $2.50 Place Return, 12 Show (48%).

Gulfstream Park hosts a spectacular 6-stakes card on Saturday that includes 13 middle distance turfers breaking from the gate in the Ft. Lauderdale S. (G2).

This contest begged analysis from the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and, true to form, Angler highlighted a positive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded grass events in Hallandale, Florida.

Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace has pointed to 28% winners of this race type, producing a mouth-watering $85.40 Win Return. Among the winners is 2019 Ft. Lauderdale champ, Instilled Regard ($8.60).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

MONDAY MYTHS: IS 7 FURLONGS A ‘SPECIALIST’ DISTANCE?

December 19, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Seven furlongs is a specialist’s distance.

Background:

Handicappers often claim that 7-furlong dirt races, the elongated sprint if you will, are races where horses who perform often and well at 7 furlongs, are preferred.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all 7-furlong main track races in North America this year. I wanted to see if horses who ran shorter, longer or the same had any statistical advantage.

//

7-furlong starters who last raced less than 7 furlongs won 13.1% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.

7-furlong starters who last raced more than 7 furlongs won 12.8% with a $0.71 ROI for every $1 bet.

7-furlong starters who last raced exactly 7 furlongs won 14.7% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

No doubt the horses coming out of 7-furlong races had more success, winning 1.6-1.9% higher and posting an ROI $.09-$.10 more. I found interesting that horses exiting top-3 finishes at 7 furlongs last time jump to nearly 17% wins. The old adage of cut-back horses excelling at 7 furlongs is debunked with those horses performing worst of all. To compare, at 6 furlongs, horses going the same distance as last time win 13.9%, compared to 13.6% for those adding distance (much closer to the identical influence). Note the cut-backs win 12.7% at 6 furlongs.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out the results for your favorite or local track. Or, see which trainers do best at 7 furlongs with the various prep distance moves.

Sharp Angle – H. Allen Jerkens S.

H. Allan Jerkens S. at Gulfstream Park
16F on Turf (December 17)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 8 16-furlong turf stakes at Gulfstream Pak
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer 6 Month Win %
Factor Stats: 8 contenders, 5 winners (62%, $21.80 Win Return, 2036ROI%), 5 Place (62%, 1.80 Place Return), 6 Show (75%, $14.20 Show Return)

Handicappers get a rare challenge on Saturday at Gulfstream Park with the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes covering 2 miles on the newly refurbished Hallandale grass course.

We scanned the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a very intriguing Sharp Angle for this one. Angler reveals that 5 of the past 8 two mile grass marathons were won by the horse ranking first in the Trainer 6 month Win % handicapping factor. All 5 winners came in the Jerkens, including Run Time, who returned $22.20 in 2017, not to mention Cowtown, who completed the trifecta at 37-1 two years ago.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer 6 month Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Monday Myths: Are Longshots Fit for the Place Slot?

December 12, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Longshots are more likely to run second.

Background:

You’ll hear a lot of handicappers talk about back-wheeling a longshot in the exacta because said price horse is more likely to finish second than win. Is that true by the numbers or a defensive approach that lacks confidence in the selection because the public may disagree?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at its max sample size of 10,000 runners to see how horses 10-1 or more perform in terms of results. I then looked at the last 10,000 favorites and last 10,000 horses 5-1 in odds to see if the results were proportional.

//

Longshots: 3% win, 6% finish second, 9% finish third, 81% finish out of the money

Favorites: 38% win, 21% finish second, 23% finish third, 27% finish out of the money

5-1 Shots: 15% win, 16% finish second, 17% finish third, 52% finish out of the money

Bottom line:

Longshots 10-1 or more, in fact, finish second twice as often as win by a 6% to 3% ratio. That’s in stark contrast to favorites, who win far more often than finish second (by a 17-point margin). Mid-range horses at 5-1 finish across the board first, second or third in about the same margins, give or take a point. The numbers suggest that putting a longshot second is a sound strategy. The $1 ROI for betting the 10-1 plus runners is $.73 to win and $.69 to place, so even though they click more often second, betting them to place is not a fruitful exchange. Second in the exacta makes more financial sense.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, run this assumption at your favorite or local track to see how it shakes out.

Sharp Angle – Bear Fan S.

Bear Fan S. at Golden Gate
6F on All Weather (December 10)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 52 6-furlong main track at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 57 contenders, 16 winners (28%, $114.40 Win Return, 200 ROI%), 20 Place (35%), 32 Show (56%)

A field of 11 filly and mare sprinters are set to face the starter in the Bear Fan Stakes, the Saturday feature at Golden Gate Fields.

We scanned the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a very intriguing Sharp Angle for this one. Angler reveals that the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace handicapping factor has not only pointed to 28% winners of this racetype but to an astounding $114 Win Return.

What´s even more compelling is that it´s not just one longshot winner that produced that juicy Win Return, but actually 5 double digit winners, including 3 that paid over $40!

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix