All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angles – De Francis Dash S.

Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. (G3) at Laurel
6F on Dirt (September 22)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 20 Laurel 6 furlong dirt stakes (3yo and up)
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 56 contenders, 20 winners (35%, $72.20 flat win bet profit, 164 ROI%), 27 win/place (48%, $.70 flat place bet return)

The De Francis Dash has been moved around the calendar quite a bit since its inception in 1990. The most recent shuffle came just last week when Laurel track management moved the race back seven days to September 22 to avoid Hurricane Florence.

A competitive 9-horse field goes postward in this year's edition and the Betmix Angler handicapping software can offer some insight. Looking at the last 20 (non-juvenile) dirt sprint stakes at Laurel we find that Best Speed Last 3 has shown a very juicy Win Return, $72.20 in fact. The sample includes a pair of 2018 winners of this race type in Rocky Policy ($7.80) and Chalon ($3.60).

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Sharp Angles – Woodbine Mile S.

Woodbine Mile (G1) at Woodbine
8F on Turf (September 15)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 17 Woodbine turf stakes (3yo and up) at one mile
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 7 winners (41%, $71.10 flat win bet profit, 309 ROI%), 11 win/place/show (64%, $27.20 flat place bet return, $5.50 flat show place return)

Woodbine takes center stage this weekend with several Grade 1's that help shape the fields for the grassy Breeders' Cup events in seven weeks. Four of the past six winners of the Breeders' Cup Mile have emerged from the Woodbine Mile, the focus of this week's Sharp Angles analysis.

Horse Beaten % is a lesser known handicapping factor has been highly predictive in the 8 furlong grass stakes at Woodbine in recent years. In fact, 7 of the past 17 winners (41%) of this race type have ranked first in this category, including three winners that paid over $20 to win ($71.10 flat win bet profit). Four others hit the board bringing the total in-the-money percentage to nearly 65%.

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Sharp Angles – Kentucky Cup Turf S.

Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) at Kentucky Downs
12F on Turf (September 8)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 11 Kentucky Downs Allowance/Stakes races at 12 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer 2-Year Win % This Race Type
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%, $20.60 flat win bet profit, 179 ROI%), 6 win/place (46%, $10.60 flat place bet return)

With a European-style course layout that can accommodate overflow fields drawn to astronomical purses, races at Kentucky Downs pose a unique challenge for thoroughbred bettors. Unique handicapping puzzles are exactly what the Betmix BirdDog handicapping software was designed to solve.

Looking at the last 11 marathon turf races at the Southern Kentucky track, BirdDog tells us that Trainer 2-Year Win % This Race Type has pointed to 4 winners (30%). The sample includes two recent Kentucky Turf Cup winners - 2013 hero Temerane ($6.40) and last year's winner Oscar Nominated ($9.40).

Trainer 2-Year Win % This Race Type is one of several new and more detailed filters recently added to Betmix BirdDog.

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Sharp Angles – Woodward Stakes

Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratgoa
9F on Dirt (September 1)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 17 Saratoga Dirt Stakes at 9 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 7 winners (41%, $19.30 flat win bet profit, 156 ROI%), 11 win/place (64%, $11.80 flat place bet return)

Short fields have been the norm for the past few runnings of the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes. Not this year. An very evenly-matched field of 14, who competed at a combined seven different tracks last out, is entered for Saturday's edition. Luckily, there's the Betmix Angler handicapping software to help sort it all out.

Average Last 3 Late Pace has pointed to the winners of seven of the past 17 9-furlong dirt stakes at The Spa. The 17 contenders have gone off at average odds of nearly 6-1 and have an average finish position of 2.94.

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Sharp Angles – Travers Stakes

Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratgoa
10F on Dirt (August 25)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 11 Saratoga Grade 1 Dirt races at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey 6 Month Win %
Factor Stats: 11 contenders, 3 winners (27%, $36.20 flat win bet profit, 264 ROI%), 9 win/place/show (81%, $13.50 flat place bet return, $11.00 flat show bet return)

With Justify easing into retirement in Central Kentucky, handicappers have to find the key to a diverse and competitive 2018 Travers Stakes. One of the recently added filters in the Betmix Angler handicapping software looks like a strong indicator.

The new Jockey 6 Month Win % factor has pointed to profits in this race type with three winners and a nearly 82% in the money rate. The sample includes two of the past four Travers winners - V. E. Day ($41.00) and West Coast ($14.20).

Stay tuned for more information and insights on the new Betmix Angler filters!

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Pedigree Handicapping – Distance Sires

With some important 10 furlong fixtures like the Pacific Classic (G1), Alabama S. (G1) and Travers S. (G1) on tap over the next two weekends, we decided to analyze which stallions are true 'distance sires'. The Horses & Sires feature in the Betmix handicapping software makes it easy.

The first two charts below show the top sires by Win Return and by Win % at distances of 9 furlongs or longer.

Quality Road has had a sensational 18 months and leads all sires in the sample with a $60.70 Distance Win Return. This figure is buoyed by Spring Quality's double-digit wins in this year's Manhattan H. (G1) at 10 furlongs and last year's 11-furlong Red Smith S. (G3) (not to mention Abel Tasman's $20.40 victory in the 2017 Kentucky Oaks at 9 furlongs).

The Adena Springs tagline is 'Classic Bloodlines, Classic Performance' and that's proven true for horseplayers as well as for breeders. Their Breeders' Cup Classic winner Awesome Again and his son Breeders' Cup Classic-winning son Ghostzapper are the only other sires with positive Distance Win returns. Ghostzapper is also the leader with a nearly 20% distance win rate.

Another way to parse this data is to look at the percentage of distance starts for each sire. Anecdotally, sires like Giant's Causeway, Medaglia d'Oro, Kitten's Joy, English Channel and Tapit are top U. S. 'distance' sires. Chart #3 backs that up as those five are the leaders in percentage of distance starts, an indication that owners and trainers are more willing to send the progeny of these stallions longer distances.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button

 

Sharp Angles – Arlington Million & Secretariat S.

Arlington Million (G1) & Secretariat S. (G1) at Arlington Park
10F on Turf (August 11)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 12 Arlington graded turf stakes at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 16 contenders, 5 winners (31%, $25.60 flat win bet profit, 180 ROI%), 9 win/place (56%, $9.60 flat place bet return, $3.00 flat show bet return)

The 32nd Arlington Million is one of the highlights of the Chicago sports calendar and Saturday's compelling card figures to add to the event's rich history. Utilizing the Betmix Angler handicapping software we found a promising Angle for both the main event and the Secretariat Stakes that, like the Million, is run over 10 furlongs.

Horses ranking first in Speed This Distance have been victorious in 5 of the past 12 graded stakes at 10 furlongs over the Arlington green. Among those is last year's Million hero Beach Patrol ($7.60) and two Secretariat champs in Oscar Performance ($5.00) and Adelaide ($4.20).

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Pedigree Handicapping – Grade 1 Sires

There are over 60 North American Grade 1 races set for the last five months of 2018, including signature events at the Saratoga, Del Mar, Arlington and Keeneland Fall meetings. So what better time to look at how the progeny of North America's top sires have fared in races at the highest level. The charts below show the progeny performances of the Top 25 sires on the 2018 General Sires list with a minimum of 35 Grade 1 starters since January 1, 2012.

Quality Road has rocketed to elite sire status over the past 18 months and his progeny have helped handicappers as well as owners and breeders. The Lane's End Farm stallion is the current leader with four Grade 1 winners in 2018 and his progeny rank first by Grade 1 Win % (26%) and In the Money % (56%). His success for bettors is further accentuated by his robust Win Return of $100.90 that ranks second only to Medgalia d'Oro (whose figure is boosted tremendously by last year's 66-1 Breeders' Cup F & M Sprint heroine Bar of Gold).

Harlan's Holiday is also worth a mention as his sons and daughters are winless in Grade 1 competition over the past 4-plus years. That's a bit of surprise for the sire of previous standouts like Into Mischief, Majesticperfection and Eclipse Champion Shanghai Bobby. The late sire's last crop are 4-year-olds of 2018.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button

Grade 1 Sires by Win % (all surfaces, minimum 35 G1 starters since January 1, 2012)

Grade 1 Sires by Win Return (all surfaces, minimum 35 G1 starters since January 1, 2012)

 

Sharp Angles – Bowling Green Stakes

Bowling Green S. (G2) at Saratoga
11F on Turf (July 28)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 18 Saratoga grass stakes at 11-12 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer Current Year
Factor Stats: 31 contenders, 9 winners (29%, $37.20 flat win bet profit, 160 ROI%), 15 win/place (48%, $18.20 flat place bet return)

There are more high profile stakes races this weekend across North America than Saratoga's Bowling Green Stakes. But with with many of those races having drawn short fields or prohibitive favorites we pointed the Betmix Angler handicapping software toward the Bowling Green, which fields nine evenly-matched turf marathoners.

The Trainer Current Year factor has pointed nine winners of 11-12 furlong grass stakes at Saratoga over the past few years. The sample includes the last three Bowling Green winners: Hunter O'Riley ($34.60) last year, Flintshire ($2.20) in 2016 and Red Rifle who paid $15.40 to his backers in 2015.

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Pedigree Handicapping – Saratoga Dirt Sires

The 40-day Saratoga meeting is perhaps the most challenging puzzle for handicappers to decipher each year. Betmix was built for the challenge and the ability to mine sire data is just one of the powerful ways Betmix users can get an edge over the general wagering public.

Click here for Del Mar Sire Stats

The chart below shows the top 20 national sires by 2017 runners and the top 10 New York sires, ranked by Win Return on the Saratoga main course since 2012.

Perennial leading sire Speightstown took down the 2004 Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) en route to Eclipse Award honors as Champion Sprinter. His progeny have similarly excelled at Saratoga showing a robust $49.50 Win return, tops in our sample.

The late NY sire Disco Rico leads the way among the Empire State stallions with a 21% progeny Win % as well as positive Win & Place returns.

The progeny of Ghostzapper are definitely worth an extra look at the 2018 Saratoga meeting. His sons and daughters won at a nearly 25% clip over the past six years and have hit the board a remarkable 60% of the time while showing healthy Win, Place & Show returns.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button