All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angles – Elkhorn S.

Elkhorn S. (G3) at Keeneland
12F on Turf (April 10)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 31 12-furlong graded turf stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 9 winners (24%, $32.60 flat win bet return, 144 ROI%), 19 show (51%)

The Elkhorn Stakes highlights the final Saturday card of the 2021 Keeneland Spring meeting and the turf marathon has drawn a typically competitive 10-horse field.

We used the Betmix Angler online handicapping database to see what handicapping factors have been predictive in these grassy graded long-distance heats and found that Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed may be the one to focus on.

Nearly a quarter of the contenders ranking first in this factor have been led into the infield winner's circle while producing a $32.60 Win Return. The sample includes the last three Elkhorn winners: Zulu Alpha ($4.00), Bigger Picture ($16.60) and One Go All Go ($21.20).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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Sharp Angles – Lexington S.

Lexington S. (G3) at
9F on Dirt (April 10)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 44 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 44 contenders, 16 winners (36%, $21.60 flat win bet return, 124 ROI%), 22 place (50%, $2.80 flat place bet return)

We're down to the final two Kentucky Derby points races this weekend. While the Arkansas Derby drew a short field with an overwhelming favorite, the Lexington Stakes is a more attractive races for horseplayers.

We used the Betmix Angler online handicapping database to analyze the field of 10 sophomores and found that Avg. Lifetime Earnings has shown good results in this racetype at Keeneland.

Over one third of the contenders ranking first in this handicapping factor, generating a $21.60 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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Sharp Angles – Santa Anita Derby

Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita
9F on Dirt (April 3)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 43 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Santa Anita
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 45 contenders, 17 winners (37%, $28.10 flat win bet return, 131 ROI%), 27 place (60%, $21.60 flat place bet return, 34 show (75% $2.40 flat show bet return)

The Santa Anita Derby became a very interesting race for handicappers the moment that projected odds-on favorite Life Is Good was sidelined with a minor ankle surgery,

Ten more evenly-matched sophomore colts will now try to earn their way into the Kentucky Derby starting, a perfect situation to call on the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some help.

Angler tells us that the horse ranking first in the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace handicapping factor has triumphed in 37% of the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes in Arcadia since 2012, generating plus returns across the board.

Among those are a trio of Santa Anita Derby champs since 2014 - California Chrome ($3.40), Dortmund ($3.20) and Roadster, the $8.20 winner two years ago.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

March Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries in March.

Older Horses on the Comeback Trail

Stars Monomoy Girl and Got Stormy returned victorious from Breeders’ Cup layoffs (112-113 days) this past weekend at age 6. Were they notable exceptions to the long-prescribed theory that it takes older horses more time to race back into shape than younger ones? 
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Miss the Wedding, Attend the Funeral?

This point of interest comes up this week as we just witnessed longshot winners of the Gotham (Weyburn) and Tampa Bay Derby (Helium) on Saturday, and we’ll have to decide what to do with them next time on the Triple Crown trail.
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Short Field, Big Price

When posed with small field sizes, you’ll often hear TV commentators and handicappers utter the phrase “small field, big price.” They’ll back it up many times with how the race dynamics of a small field lend themselves unpredictable pace scenarios and more traffic than you’d expect. The cat-and-mouse games are supposed to create some sense of chaos and not lean to the obvious.
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Best Jockeys on the Best Horses

But if all things were equal, how much does the jockey matter? I wanted to find out if the success of the jockey could actually help the success of the horse, and if so, by how much. By looking at race favorites, those horses projected to be best in every race, we can gauge the rider’s impact.
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Are Classier Horses More Likely to Repeat Wins?

Most horseplayers say that that the lower-class horses are least-trustworthy when it comes to maintaining their winning form race after race. Is that true? And are the highest-class horses like Greatest Honour the most trusted to repeat victories? Let’s find out.
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Sharp Angles – Florida Derby

Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park
9F on Dirt (March 26)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 10 9-furlong graded dirt stakes for 3YOs at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % Meet
Factor Stats: 11 contenders, 7 winners (63%, $27.40 flat win bet return, 224 ROI%), 8 win/place/show (72%, $6.20 flat place bet return & $3.60 flat show bet return)

Since the turn of the century, a total of six Florida Derby winners have gone on to capture the Kentucky Derby. Time will tell where the 2021 Florida Derby ranks historically, the more urgent concern for handicappers is which colt will get his picture taken Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

A query of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database shows that the 1st in Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % Meet factor has yielded a high percentage of winners in 9-furlong graded dirt stakes for the sophomore set in Hallandale.

63% of the contenders ranking first in this factor have scored and they've rewarded win bettors with a healthy $27.40 Win Return. This sample of winners include 5 of the past 9 Florida Derby champs.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st in Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Muniz Memorial Classic S.

Muniz Memorial Classic S. (G2) at Fair Grounds
9F on Turf (March 20)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%, $48.00 Win Return, 241 ROI%), 9 show (53% $25.20 Place Return, $4.50 Show Return)

The Fair Grounds card of the year is here with 8 stakes on tap in the Big Easy. Among those the Muniz Memorial Classic for the middle distance turfers, which is anything but an easy puzzle for handicappers.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace has been a predictive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Fair Grounds.

Over a third of the contenders ranked first in this factor have been photographed in the winner's circle, including a quartet of Muniz champs - Take the Stand ($18.00), Skyring ($17.40), Bricks And Mortar ($2.60) and Factor This, last year's winner at an $18.80 mutuel.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Rebel S.

Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park
8.5F on Dirt (March 13)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 35 8.5-furlong graded stakes for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: 40 contenders, 8 winners (20%, $126.00 flat win bet return, 257 ROI%), 20 show (50%, $12,80 Place Return, $5.30 Show Return)

The train towards the May 1 Kentucky Derby rolls on and gains steam with every passing week. Next stop: Saturday's $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that Avg. Last 3 Turn Time has produced 20% winners of the 8.5 furlong 3-year-old graded stakes in Hot Springs since 2012. It's true that the wild $126.00 Win Return is due in large part to Super Steed, the 62-1 winner of the 2019 Southwest Stakes. However, this handicapping factor has pointed to two other double-digit winners of this race type.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Tampa Bay Derby

Tampa Bay Derby. (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs
8.5F on Dirt (March 6)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 18 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Tampa Bay Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 7 winners (38%, $29.60 flat win bet return, 182 ROI%), 10 show (55%)

The Tampa Bay Derby is typically one of the most intriguing Kentucky Derby preps as it tends to attract a couple of proven stakes 3-year-olds and many more seeking to graduate from promising maiden or allowance performances.

This year's 12-horse edition is no different so we took the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for a spin. The query uncovered the Avg. Last 3 E2 pace handicapping factor that's pointed to 38% winners of this race type. Even more encouraging is the fact that those scorers produced a healthy $29.60 Win Return as well.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

February Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his February discoveries.

Did They Know?

If there’s one thing that horseplayers – almost without fail – believe, it’s that inside information abounds, especially with first-time starters and horses coming off of long layoffs. The assumption is that rumors spread and money follows. And not only is that influence prevalent, it’s accurately on the money.
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When the Morning Line Dives

The suggestion that any horse bet down hard off its morning line qualifies in that vein prompted me back to the database. Is it true? That’s the entire point of this series. Let’s find out.
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Do Second-Time Starters Improve the Most?

A time-honored, bandied-about phrase among handicappers and horsemen has been that you can expect a horse making his or her second start to show their biggest leap forward in their career. The assumption is that the initial experience and a more seasoned and fit runner in the second appearance provides a recipe for instant improvement.
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Click here for January's Myth Busters

Sharp Angles – Mac Diarmida S.

Mac Diarmida S. (G2) at Gulfstream Park
11F on Turf (February 27)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 18 11-furlong graded turf stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 9 winners (50%, $39.40 flat win bet return, 209 ROI%), 13 win/place/show (72%, $13.40 flat place bet return & $9.70 flat show bet return)

It's another big card at Gulfstream Park this Saturday with the Mac Diarmida S. (G2) carded as the second of nine stakes (Race 4).

A query of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database shows that the Best Speed Last Race factor has yielded a high percentage of good-priced winners in the 11-furlong graded grass stakes in Hallandale.

Exactly half of contenders ranking first in this factor have scored and they've rewarded win bettors with a healthy $39.40 Win Return. This sample of winners include 7 of the past 8 Mac Diarmida champs.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last Race slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix