All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angles – Maryland Millions Turf

Maryland Millions Turf at Laurel
8F on Turf (October 20)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 18 8-furlong turf stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Ranking
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 8 winners (44%, $15.80 flat win bet profit, 143 ROI%), 14 win/place/show (77%, $3.60 flat place return, $2.10 flat show return)

The annual Jim McKay Maryland Millions day at Laurel features 11 stakes for thoroughbreds born in the Free State. Among the more competitive stakes is the Maryland Millions Turf which drew a full field of 11 with three more waiting on the also-eligibles list.

While a good grass pedigree may seem obvious for success in a turf stakes, this factor has definitely proven profitable in this race type. And by using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we can zero in on exactly which runner has the highest-rated turf pedigree. Runners ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Ranking have won 8 of the past 18 one-mile stakes over the Laurel turf course (44%), producing a $15.80 Win Return (along with plus Place & Show Returns).

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Sharp Angles – Floral Park S.

Floral Park S. at Belmont Park
6F on Turf (October 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 27 6-furlong turf stakes at Belmont
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Win % 2yrs./Race Type
Factor Stats: 24 contenders, 9 winners (37%, $99.70 flat win bet profit, 307 ROI%), 17 win/place/show (70%, $29.20 flat place return, $21.20 flat show return)

Since the first Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was carded in 2008 (and won by Desert Code), sprint stakes are being run at an ever increasing rate at North American tracks. The inaugural Floral Park Stakes on October 13 at Belmont Park is a case in point. The 6-furlong dash on the grass has drawn an overflow field of distaff turf sprinters.

Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we find that paying attention to trainers in these turf sprints is paying big dividends. The Trainer Win % Past 2 Years this Race Type has produced an astounding $99.70 Win Return and over 70% of the horses ranking first in this factor have hit the board, producing juicy Place and Show Returns to boot.

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Pedigree Handicapping – Keeneland Turf Sires

The Keeneland Fall meeting will feature some important turf events leading up to the Breeders' Cup not to mention a slew of competitive 'undercard' grass races. With the ability to search for sire data in the Betmix Angler handicapping software, we decided to investigate which sires' progeny have performed best for bettors in recent years.

Based on our findings the sons and daughters of The Factor and Artie Schiller bear particularly close watching. Like his grandsire (Danzig) and sire (War Front) The Factor was best in one-turn dirt races. And, like his sire-line, he's siring a lot of successful grass runners. From a small sample of 17 runners his progeny have won over 23% of their starts over the Keeneland lawn. Among them is the Wesley Ward-trained Bound For Nowhere, winner of the $19 winner of the Shakertown S. (G2) at the Keeneland Spring meeting.

As a Sadler's Wells grandson and winner of the Breeders' Cup Mile, Artie Schiller was always expected to sire good grass performers. Over 20% of his runners over the Keeneland turf have found the winner's circle. All but one of them has paid double-digits in doing so, leading to his spectacular $102.20 Win Return.

The charts below show the Keeneland turf figures for the Top 25 stallions on the North American General Sires List as of October 3.

Keeneland Turf Sires by Win % 

Keeneland Turf Sires by Win Return

 

 

Pedigree Handicapping – First Crop Sires

After a spring/summer of North American racing we have the initial returns on the new sire class of 2018. Betmix Angler's Sire Search feature allows us to parse the data so far and the chart below shows results for stallions with at least 15 starters through September 24.

Spendthrift Farm's Cross Traffic (by Unbridled's Song) leads his crop in the early going with a 26% Win rate and profitable Win & Place Returns. Half of his runners have finished in the money, indicating there could very well be more winners in the near future for the 2013 Whitney H. (G1) winner. The progeny of Hopeful S. (G1) winner Strong Mandate, a son of Tiznow, may also bear watching as he ranks second with a 20% Win rate and full 60% of his runners have hit the board.

Revolutionary (by War Pass), winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Pimlico Special (G3), has been the most profitable First Crop sire so far with a $69.40 Win Return buoyed by a pair of big-priced debut winners - Esterina in a Waiver Maiden Claimer at Delaware Park and Maiden Beauty, the $47.60 winner of the Lynbrook Stakes at Belmont Park.

 

Sharp Angles – De Francis Dash S.

Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. (G3) at Laurel
6F on Dirt (September 22)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 20 Laurel 6 furlong dirt stakes (3yo and up)
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 56 contenders, 20 winners (35%, $72.20 flat win bet profit, 164 ROI%), 27 win/place (48%, $.70 flat place bet return)

The De Francis Dash has been moved around the calendar quite a bit since its inception in 1990. The most recent shuffle came just last week when Laurel track management moved the race back seven days to September 22 to avoid Hurricane Florence.

A competitive 9-horse field goes postward in this year's edition and the Betmix Angler handicapping software can offer some insight. Looking at the last 20 (non-juvenile) dirt sprint stakes at Laurel we find that Best Speed Last 3 has shown a very juicy Win Return, $72.20 in fact. The sample includes a pair of 2018 winners of this race type in Rocky Policy ($7.80) and Chalon ($3.60).

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Sharp Angles – Woodbine Mile S.

Woodbine Mile (G1) at Woodbine
8F on Turf (September 15)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 17 Woodbine turf stakes (3yo and up) at one mile
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 7 winners (41%, $71.10 flat win bet profit, 309 ROI%), 11 win/place/show (64%, $27.20 flat place bet return, $5.50 flat show place return)

Woodbine takes center stage this weekend with several Grade 1's that help shape the fields for the grassy Breeders' Cup events in seven weeks. Four of the past six winners of the Breeders' Cup Mile have emerged from the Woodbine Mile, the focus of this week's Sharp Angles analysis.

Horse Beaten % is a lesser known handicapping factor has been highly predictive in the 8 furlong grass stakes at Woodbine in recent years. In fact, 7 of the past 17 winners (41%) of this race type have ranked first in this category, including three winners that paid over $20 to win ($71.10 flat win bet profit). Four others hit the board bringing the total in-the-money percentage to nearly 65%.

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Sharp Angles – Kentucky Cup Turf S.

Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) at Kentucky Downs
12F on Turf (September 8)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 11 Kentucky Downs Allowance/Stakes races at 12 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer 2-Year Win % This Race Type
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%, $20.60 flat win bet profit, 179 ROI%), 6 win/place (46%, $10.60 flat place bet return)

With a European-style course layout that can accommodate overflow fields drawn to astronomical purses, races at Kentucky Downs pose a unique challenge for thoroughbred bettors. Unique handicapping puzzles are exactly what the Betmix BirdDog handicapping software was designed to solve.

Looking at the last 11 marathon turf races at the Southern Kentucky track, BirdDog tells us that Trainer 2-Year Win % This Race Type has pointed to 4 winners (30%). The sample includes two recent Kentucky Turf Cup winners - 2013 hero Temerane ($6.40) and last year's winner Oscar Nominated ($9.40).

Trainer 2-Year Win % This Race Type is one of several new and more detailed filters recently added to Betmix BirdDog.

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Sharp Angles – Woodward Stakes

Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratgoa
9F on Dirt (September 1)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 17 Saratoga Dirt Stakes at 9 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 7 winners (41%, $19.30 flat win bet profit, 156 ROI%), 11 win/place (64%, $11.80 flat place bet return)

Short fields have been the norm for the past few runnings of the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes. Not this year. An very evenly-matched field of 14, who competed at a combined seven different tracks last out, is entered for Saturday's edition. Luckily, there's the Betmix Angler handicapping software to help sort it all out.

Average Last 3 Late Pace has pointed to the winners of seven of the past 17 9-furlong dirt stakes at The Spa. The 17 contenders have gone off at average odds of nearly 6-1 and have an average finish position of 2.94.

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Sharp Angles – Travers Stakes

Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratgoa
10F on Dirt (August 25)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 11 Saratoga Grade 1 Dirt races at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey 6 Month Win %
Factor Stats: 11 contenders, 3 winners (27%, $36.20 flat win bet profit, 264 ROI%), 9 win/place/show (81%, $13.50 flat place bet return, $11.00 flat show bet return)

With Justify easing into retirement in Central Kentucky, handicappers have to find the key to a diverse and competitive 2018 Travers Stakes. One of the recently added filters in the Betmix Angler handicapping software looks like a strong indicator.

The new Jockey 6 Month Win % factor has pointed to profits in this race type with three winners and a nearly 82% in the money rate. The sample includes two of the past four Travers winners - V. E. Day ($41.00) and West Coast ($14.20).

Stay tuned for more information and insights on the new Betmix Angler filters!

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Pedigree Handicapping – Distance Sires

With some important 10 furlong fixtures like the Pacific Classic (G1), Alabama S. (G1) and Travers S. (G1) on tap over the next two weekends, we decided to analyze which stallions are true 'distance sires'. The Horses & Sires feature in the Betmix handicapping software makes it easy.

The first two charts below show the top sires by Win Return and by Win % at distances of 9 furlongs or longer.

Quality Road has had a sensational 18 months and leads all sires in the sample with a $60.70 Distance Win Return. This figure is buoyed by Spring Quality's double-digit wins in this year's Manhattan H. (G1) at 10 furlongs and last year's 11-furlong Red Smith S. (G3) (not to mention Abel Tasman's $20.40 victory in the 2017 Kentucky Oaks at 9 furlongs).

The Adena Springs tagline is 'Classic Bloodlines, Classic Performance' and that's proven true for horseplayers as well as for breeders. Their Breeders' Cup Classic winner Awesome Again and his son Breeders' Cup Classic-winning son Ghostzapper are the only other sires with positive Distance Win returns. Ghostzapper is also the leader with a nearly 20% distance win rate.

Another way to parse this data is to look at the percentage of distance starts for each sire. Anecdotally, sires like Giant's Causeway, Medaglia d'Oro, Kitten's Joy, English Channel and Tapit are top U. S. 'distance' sires. Chart #3 backs that up as those five are the leaders in percentage of distance starts, an indication that owners and trainers are more willing to send the progeny of these stallions longer distances.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button