All posts by Matt O

Pedigree Handicapping – 2YO Distance Sires

There have been a little over 500 North American races for juveniles going 8 furlongs or longer in 2018. Pedigree can be a prime factor in determining which horses are likely to excel when released from sprint compeition. Luckily the Betmix Angler handicapping software provides Betmix handicappers the option of analyzing sire performance.

The charts below show some of the top active sires by 2YO distance Win % and 2YO distance Win Return.

Juveniles by the great Ashford Stud stallion Uncle Mo should definitely be given a long look when stretching out. His progeny have won at a strong 27% clip in 2018 posting positive returns across the board.

The first crop sire Cairo Prince, based at Airdrie Stud, is another to watch when his sons & daughters get added distance. He's tied with Kitten's Joy with 65 2YO distance starts, an indication that trainer's feel comfortable sending his progeny long. Five of his 11 2YO distance winners have paid double digits, including Silent Surprise who lived up to her name with a $50-1 victory in an 8.5F turf Maiden Special contest at the Keeneland Fall meeting.

WinStar Farm's Paynter is another whose Win Return figure got a big boost this autumn at Keenelend when his juvenile son Knicks Go sprang the 70-1 upset in the Breeders' Futurity. He has six other 2YO distance winners in 2018, all but one also paying double digits. So longshot players might want to be on the look out as the sons and daughters of the 2012 Haskell Inv. (G1) winner/Belmont Stakes (G1) runner-up stretch out.

2018 2YO Sires by Distance Win % (for races at 8-furlongs or longer)

2018 2YO Sires by Distance Win Return (for races at 8-furlongs or longer)

 

Sharp Angles – Miss America S.

Miss America S. at Golden Gate Fields (2 divisions)
8.5F on Turf (December 8)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 17 8.5-furlong turf stakes at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%, $37.60 flat win bet return, 210 ROI%), 11 win/place/show (64%, $25.60 flat place bet return & $14.30 flat show bet return)

The Miss America Stakes at Golden Gate Fields drew an overflow field that led track officials to split the race into two divisions. This could be a very good thing for Betmix users. After a scan of the BirdDog online handicapping software we found that horses ranking 1st in Win % have done extremely well in 8.5 turf stakes at the Bay Area track.

It's easy to intuit that consistently winning horses won't offer generous payouts so we were surprised to find that this Angle has produced exceptional win, place and show returns. Coachwhip, the 16-1 runner up in last year's Miss America, is one of three straight qualifiers who've finished 1st or 2nd in this race type.

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Sharp Angles – Go For Wand H. & Cigar Mile H.

Go For Wand H. & Cigar Mile H. at Aqueduct
8F on Dirt (December 1)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 24 8-furlong graded dirt stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked in Top 3 Days Since Last Race & 1st in In The Money %
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 6 winners (33%, $68.00 flat win bet profit, 288 ROI%), 10 win/place/show ($25.20 flat place bet return & $7.50 flat show bet return)

NYRA hosts its last big race card of the year on Saturday, December 1. The four-stakes menu is anchored by the Grade 1 Cigar Mile and also features the Grade 2 Go For Wand H. for the distaffers going a flat mile. A scan of the Betmix Angler handicapping software reveals that recency and consistency have been strong indicators in the 8-furlong graded races on the Aqueduct main track. The final formula reads: rank among the top 3 in Days Since Last Race along with showing first in In The Money %.

Of the 18 runners in this race type who've qualified, one third have found the winner's circle producing a very generous $68 flat win bet profit. Four more contenders have hit the board sparking very good place bet ($25.20) and show bet ($7.50) returns.

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Sharp Angles – Oakland S.

Oakland S. at Golden Gate Fields
6F on All-Weather (November 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 30 6-furlong main track stakes at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 40 contenders, 11 winners (27%, $46.80 flat win bet profit, 158 ROI%), 18 win/place (45%, $4.30 flat place return)

The Oakland Stakes, Saturday's feature at Golden Gate Fields has drawn a healthy field of nine older male sprinters. Using the Betmix Angler Handicapping software to analyze the past 30 sprint stakes at the Northern California oval we found that Last Turn Time has been a very positive factor for this race type.

11 of the 40 contenders ranking first Last Turn Time have had their pictures taken and this factor appears to be on an upward trajectory with Tribal Storm taking the Lost in the Fog Stakes earlier this year at 20-1.

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Sharp Angles – Richard W. Small S.

Richard W. Small S. at Laurel
8F on Dirt (November 10)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 31 9-furlong dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 34 contenders, 12 winners (35%, $58.60 flat win bet profit, 186 ROI%), 15 win/place (44%, $10.90 flat place return)

The two-day Breeders' Cup extravaganza has come and gone but there is a still a wealth of stakes action across the country this weekend, including a five-stakes Saturday card at Laurel Park. The $100,000 Richard W. Small Stakes is one of those and it's drawn an overflow field of 15 older males.

When tough races like this arise it's wise to turn to the Betmix Handicapping software. Looking at the last 31 9-furlong dirt stakes at Laurel we find that Last Late Pace has pointed to 12 winners that have produced a very healthy Win Return of $58.60. Among the winners is Afleet Willy, who found the winner's circle in this race last year at an $8.60 win mutuel

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Sharp Angles – Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint & Turf Sprint

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint & Turf Sprint
5.5F on Turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 141 turf sprints at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 149 contenders, 34 winners (22%, $30,60 Win Return), 60 Win/Place (40% $3.20 Place Return)

Turf Sprints have grown in number at North American tracks in recent years and there are now a pair of Breeders' Cup contests for the speedy turfers - Friday's inaugural Juvenile Turf Sprint and Saturday's Turf Sprint. Both races will be contested at 5.5F over the Churchill Downs turf course.

We have a good-sized sample of 141 turf sprints to analyze in the Betmix Angler handicapping software and we found a profitable angle for this race type. Average of Last 3 E1 Pace turns out to be a solid predictor of success with a 22% Win% and a sparkling $30.60 Win Return. The 40% total Win/Place rate also indicates this Factor is a good place to start when looking for a horse to key in these always competitive races.

Another resource for handicapping North American turf sprints is the May 31 Pedigree Handicapping analysis of turf sprint sires.

Best of luck on Breeders Cup weekend!

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Pedigree Handicapping – Breeders’ Cup Decisions

When Breeders' Cup pre-entries were announced on October 24, a total of 23 horses were cross-entered in multiple Breeders' Cup races. In most cases the connections have all but decided which race to target but there are a few decisions yet to be finalized. We decided to utilize the Sire Search feature within the Betmix handicapping software to see if any insights could be gleaned.

Perhaps the biggest Breeders' Cup decision to be made is with Roaring Lion. Will he go in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the Churchill Downs main track or stay on course for the Turf over a surface on which he's already won a quartet of Group 1's?

Below is the Turf vs. Dirt performance comparison for stakes starters by Roaring Lion's sire, Kitten's Joy, along with the dirt stakes distance comparisons for the stallions Quality Road and Uncle Mo. The connections of the Quality Road son City of Light will choose between the $1,000,000 Dirt Mile and the 10-furlong $6,000,000 Classic. Uncle Mo's Mopotism has secured a spot in the $2,000,000 Distaff at 9 furlongs and is the first alternate for the 7-furlong $1,000,000 Filly & Mare Sprint.

 

 

Sharp Angles – Maryland Millions Turf

Maryland Millions Turf at Laurel
8F on Turf (October 20)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 18 8-furlong turf stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Ranking
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 8 winners (44%, $15.80 flat win bet profit, 143 ROI%), 14 win/place/show (77%, $3.60 flat place return, $2.10 flat show return)

The annual Jim McKay Maryland Millions day at Laurel features 11 stakes for thoroughbreds born in the Free State. Among the more competitive stakes is the Maryland Millions Turf which drew a full field of 11 with three more waiting on the also-eligibles list.

While a good grass pedigree may seem obvious for success in a turf stakes, this factor has definitely proven profitable in this race type. And by using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we can zero in on exactly which runner has the highest-rated turf pedigree. Runners ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Ranking have won 8 of the past 18 one-mile stakes over the Laurel turf course (44%), producing a $15.80 Win Return (along with plus Place & Show Returns).

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Sharp Angles – Floral Park S.

Floral Park S. at Belmont Park
6F on Turf (October 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 27 6-furlong turf stakes at Belmont
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Win % 2yrs./Race Type
Factor Stats: 24 contenders, 9 winners (37%, $99.70 flat win bet profit, 307 ROI%), 17 win/place/show (70%, $29.20 flat place return, $21.20 flat show return)

Since the first Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was carded in 2008 (and won by Desert Code), sprint stakes are being run at an ever increasing rate at North American tracks. The inaugural Floral Park Stakes on October 13 at Belmont Park is a case in point. The 6-furlong dash on the grass has drawn an overflow field of distaff turf sprinters.

Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we find that paying attention to trainers in these turf sprints is paying big dividends. The Trainer Win % Past 2 Years this Race Type has produced an astounding $99.70 Win Return and over 70% of the horses ranking first in this factor have hit the board, producing juicy Place and Show Returns to boot.

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Pedigree Handicapping – Keeneland Turf Sires

The Keeneland Fall meeting will feature some important turf events leading up to the Breeders' Cup not to mention a slew of competitive 'undercard' grass races. With the ability to search for sire data in the Betmix Angler handicapping software, we decided to investigate which sires' progeny have performed best for bettors in recent years.

Based on our findings the sons and daughters of The Factor and Artie Schiller bear particularly close watching. Like his grandsire (Danzig) and sire (War Front) The Factor was best in one-turn dirt races. And, like his sire-line, he's siring a lot of successful grass runners. From a small sample of 17 runners his progeny have won over 23% of their starts over the Keeneland lawn. Among them is the Wesley Ward-trained Bound For Nowhere, winner of the $19 winner of the Shakertown S. (G2) at the Keeneland Spring meeting.

As a Sadler's Wells grandson and winner of the Breeders' Cup Mile, Artie Schiller was always expected to sire good grass performers. Over 20% of his runners over the Keeneland turf have found the winner's circle. All but one of them has paid double-digits in doing so, leading to his spectacular $102.20 Win Return.

The charts below show the Keeneland turf figures for the Top 25 stallions on the North American General Sires List as of October 3.

Keeneland Turf Sires by Win % 

Keeneland Turf Sires by Win Return