All posts by Matt O

New From Betmix! Jockey Switch Evaluation

New Jockey - Better or Worse?

We've added a new stat to the main horse table in BirdDog.

Next to the Jockey name you can see the win % for that jockey over the last year. If this is a new rider compared to last race you will also see how much better or worse this new jockey is.

The horse above (#10) is being ridded by Santana, same as last race, so all you see is Santana's win % over the last year.

#6 - Spokane Eagle is being ridden by Rosario, which is a different jockey than last race. Rosario's 1 year win % is 4.19% better than the previous jockey that rode this horse.

If the new jockey has a lower win % than the previous jockey it will show up as a red number:

Getting a better jockey does not always mean the horse is going to run better than it did in its previous start - remember, the horse is carrying the jockey, not the other way around. 

The big stand out statistically is when a horse is getting a worse jockey, and that jockey is worse by 7% or more. Those types of horses will usually underperform.

So far this year there have been 5,540 horses getting new riders that are at least 7% WORSE than the previous jockey. Of those 5,540 horses only 496 won (8.95%).

This new stat is an easy thing to keep an eye on and hopefully it helps point you towards a few more winners.

Sharp Angles – Matt Winn S.

Matt Winn S. (G3)
8.5F on Dirt (May 23)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 7 runnings of the Matt Win
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 7 contenders, 6 winners (85%, $30.60 flat win bet return, 318 ROI%), 7 place/show (100%, $11.20 flat Place Return, $4.20 Show Return)

In a normal year, Saturday's Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs would attract a moderate-sized field comprised largely Triple Crown refugees and later-blooming sophomores intent on making a summer splash.

This year it's drawn a large and competive field of colts trying to make the cut for the upside down 2020 Triple Crown. Fortunately for handicappers the Betmix Angler online handicapping database provides a steady and consistent stream of important data.

An Angler scan tells us that horses ranking first in the Average Speed Last 3 handicapping factor have triumphed in 6 of the past 7 running of the Matt Winn. Among those is 2018 King Zachary, who returned $26.60 to his backers and the only contender not to win, Fame and Power in 2015, completed the exacta.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Sunday Silence S.

Sunday Silence S.
9F on Dirt (May 17)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 22 9-furlong non graded stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 8 winners (38%, $8.00 flat win bet return, 119 ROI%), 14 place/show (66%, $17.30 flat Place Return, $.20 Show Return)

Sunday Silence was the dramatic winner of the 1989 Breeders' Cup Classic at Gulfstream Park and the South Florida oval honors that great champion with it's featured race on Sunday.

We scanned the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a useful Sharp Angle for the 9-furlong non-graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Contenders ranking first in Last E2 Pace have triumphed 38% of the time and hit the board at a 66% clip. There are also green numbers down the line for Win, Place and Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

BetNet Toteboarding Tool

BetNet is a new tool within Toteboarding.

You can quickly search for horses to bet using simple filters. Find horses by trainer, jockey or sire. Search for specific race types by class, distance, surface and number of starters. Easily find horses that rank highly in common handicapping factors.

Run all of your saved Angles and bet them all at once with the click of a button...

BetNet is a powerful tool that combines the power of Betmix data with XpressBet wagering. Take a look at the video below and get started...

Pedigree Handicapping – 2-Year-Old Sires

North American racing is slowly beginning to stir from its forced slumber and that means the stunted juvenile racing season will start to bloom as well.

We published our survey of 2019 juvenile sires in late December and that results chart is posted again here:

2019 Juvenile Sire Survey

We went a step further this time to add more data to the juvenile handicapping arsenal. For qualifying sires (with more than one crop) we went back to the begining of 2018 and mined the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for a two-year picture:

Juvenile Sires by Win Return (2018 & 2019)

Paynter's outrageous Win Return has been buoyed by Knicks Go, the 70-1 winner of the 2018 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. But he's more than just a one-hit wonder as half of his 48 juvenile winners over the past two seasons have paid double digits.

Juvenile Sires by Win % (2018 & 2019)

Sire progeny percentages can also be useful when selecting contenders in juvenile heats. Munnings and Into Mischief are the stallions that stick out in this regard. Both sired 18% juvenile winners/starters in 2018 & 2019 with Into Mischief topping our sample with a 47% In The Money rate.

Using Angler to find Arkansas Derby Contenders

For those of you that have questions about how to use Angler, or may be wondering what Angler is all about, we have put together a video that shows how you can use Angler to find contenders.

The method used in this video is just one of many ways that Angler be used to help you find logical plays.

Angler is one of the best handicapping tools anywhere, and becoming comfortable with using it on a daily basis will make you a much better handicapper...

Sharp Angles – Bachelor S.

Bachelor S.
6F on Dirt (April 25)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 48 6-furlong stakes for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 53 contenders, 23 winners (43%, $40.40 flat win bet return, 138 ROI%), 38 place/show (71%, $2.10 flat Place Return)

An intriguing field of nine sophomore sprinters are set to contest the $100,000 Bachelor Stakes, one of two sprint stakes on Saturday's Oaklawn Park card.

To lessen the intrigue we turned to the Betmix Angler online database and found that the Best Speed Last 3 handicapping factor has shown good results in this racetype.

Over 40% of the qualifiers in 3-year-old sprint stakes at Oaklawn have been victorious while showing a very healthy $40.40 Win Return. 71% of the qualifiers have factored in the trifecta.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Apple Blossom S.

Apple Blossom S. (G1)
8.5F on Dirt (April 18)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 28 8.5-furlong graded stakes (4YO & up) at Oaklawn Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 12 winners (40%, $25.60 flat win bet return, 142 ROI%), 20 place/show (66%, $5.40 flat Place Return)

Quantity may be lacking in horse racing nowadays but fans and bettors can revel in a Breeders' Cup-quality Apple Blossom S. on Saturday at Oaklawn Park.

With 14 fillies & mares set to break from the gate, the Betmix Angler handicapping database was the obvious place to turn for an edge in such a competitive contest.

Our query revealed that Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace has been predictive in the graded 8.5-furlong heats for older runners at the Hot Springs oval. 40% of the contenders have won, including four recent Apple Blossom heroines.
On Fire Baby ($26.40) is among that group.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Oaklawn Mile

Oaklawn Mile
8F on Dirt (April 11)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 28 8-furlong non-graded stakes at Oaklawn Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 10 winners (34%, $65.80 flat win bet return, 213 ROI%), 19 place/show (65%, $30.20 flat place bet return & $11.10 flat show return)

Oaklawn Park offers a pair of big-money and big-field stakes on Saturday, including the 14-horse Oaklawn Mile.

We scanned the Betmix Angler online handicapping database fand found that Average Last 3 E2 Pace has been a very profitable factor for handicappers.

Over a third of the contenders have found the winner's enclosure and over two-thirds have helped trifecta players. The $65.80 Win Return is particularly compelling as are the double-digit Place and Show Returns.

Among the winners is Exulting, the $23.80 winner of the inaugural running of this race in 2019.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Purple Mountain S.

Purple Mountain S.
6F on Dirt (April 4)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 45 6-furlong non-graded dirt stakes for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 51 contenders, 20 winners (39%, $20.80 flat win bet return, 120 ROI%), 39 place/show (78%, $8.30 flat place bet return & $2.50 flat show return)

Saturday's Purple Martin S. at Oaklawn Park has drawn a particularly tough field of 10 sophomore fillies. Half of the field are already stakes winners and a third of the runners are making their 2020 debuts.

Difficult races are just what the Betmix Angler online handicapping software is for. A query of the Angler database revealed that Speed Last Race has been a very positive handicapping factor in the non-graded sprints for 3-year-olds in Hot Springs.

Nearly 40% of the contenders have earned a trophy and over 70% have factored in the trifecta with positive Returns across the board.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Speed Last Race slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix