Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Sharp Angles – QE II Challenge Cup

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)
9F on turf at Keeneland (October 12)
Races Analyzed
: Last 10 9-furlong turf stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 3 winners (30%) $25.60 Win Return, 4 place (40%) $8.20 Place return & 6 show (60%), 3.50 Show return.

The Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup typically draws a deep and competitive field of 3-year-old filly turfers and this year is no exception.

We used the Betmix Angler online handicapping data base to scan the 9-furlong turf stakes at Keeneland. We discovered that his race type is relatively rare at the historic Lexington course - only 10 such races have been carded since 2012.

However we were able glean some perspective and Angler tells us that the Horses Beaten % factor has pointed to 60% in-the-money finishes and a 30% winning clip that's generated a very nice $25.60 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Alcibiades & Breeders Futurity

Alcibiades S & Breeders Futurity at Keeneland
8.5F on Dirt (October 8 & 9)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 30 G1 8.5-furlong dirt stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 11 winners (36%, $19.60 Win Return, 132 ROI%), 16 Place (53%, $11.10 Place Return), 18 Show (60%)

Here we go! Keeneland roars back to life with typically deep and contentious cards to open up the 2021 Fall Meeting.

Perhaps the two toughest contests over the first three days of the meet are the two Grade 1's for the juvenile set, Friday's Alcibiades and Saturday's Breeders' Futurity. At least 12 starters are scheduled to break from the gate in each.

So what does the Betmix Angler online handicapping database have to say about these races? Angler tells us that the Average Lifetime Earnings handicapping factor has pointed to 36% winners of the recent 8.5 furlong dirt Grade 1s at the historic Lexington oval.

This factor has generated positive Win & Place returns while pointing to recent Alcibiades heroines like My Conquestadory ($4.40), Heavenly Love ($13.40) and Restless Rider ($4.60) along with Breeders' Futurity heroes like Maxfield ($14.80), Essential Quality ($5.80) and Free Drop Billy ($5.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st Average Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Laurel Dash S.

Laurel Dash S. at Laurel
5.5F on Turf (October 2)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 48 5.5-furlong turf stakes at Laurel Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 54 contenders, 14 winners (25%, $87.20 Win Return, 180 ROI%), 19 Place (35%, $10.70 Place Return), 25 Show (46%, $4.90)

The 12-horse Laurel Dash is one of five stakes on a fantastic fall Saturday card at Laurel. With a full field going 5.5 furlongs over the Laurel lawn we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some help.

Sure enough, Angler tells us that 1st Average Last 3 E1 Pace has pointed to 25% winners of this racetype AND an incredible $87.20 Win Return. This handicapping factor has also generated healthy positive Place & Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st Average Last 3 E1 Pacet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Violet S.

Violet S. at Monmouth
9.5F on Turf (September 25)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 33 8.5-furlong non-graded turf stakes at Monmouth Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % This Meet
Factor Stats: 35 contenders, 10 winners (28%, $34.60 Win Return, 149 ROI%), 12 Place (34%), 22 show (62%)

The grassy Violet Stakes anchors the September 25 card at Monmouth Park and it's drawn a very evenly-matched field of salty middle-distance mares.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that the human element has factored prominently in these 8.5-furlong non-graded events at the Jersey Shore. The Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % This Meet handicapping factor has pointed 28% winners of this race type while generating a juicy $34.60 win return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % This Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Canadian International

Canadian International S. (G1) at Woodbine
12F on Turf (September 18)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 15 12-furlong Grade 1 turf stakes at Woodbine
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed This Distance
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 5 winners (29%, $96.50 Win Return, 383 ROI%), 5 Place (29%, $13.20 Place Return), 6 show (35%)

Woodbine offers horseplayers a competitive Saturday card anchored by a trio of graded stakes on the turf. Among those is the Grade 1 Canadian International that features defending champ Desert Encounter versus seven salty rivals.

Will the Desert Encounter repeat? We queried the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for clues and found that Best Speed This Distance has pointed to the winners of nearly one third of the recent 12-furlong Grade 1 grass contests at Woodbine. And the Win Return is a whopping $96.50!

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed This Distance slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Mint Ladies Sprint S. & Franklin-Simpson S.

Mint Ladies Sprint & Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs
6.5F on Turf (September 11, 2021)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 21 6.5-furlong graded stakes at Kentucky Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 27 contenders, 8 winners (29%, $21.40 Win Return, 139 ROI%), 9 Place (33%), 10 show (37%)

The center of the racing world shifts from the coasts to bucolic Kentucky Downs on the Kentucky-Tennessee border. The Saturday card features 5 stakes worth nearly $4 million, including a pair of graded turf sprints, the Mint Ladies Sprint & the Franklin-Simpson.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database stores a wealth of data on races at the European-style course and we ran a query looking for positive handicapping factors for 6.5-furlong graded events. As usual the database didn't disappoint and revealed that horses ranking first in Best Speed Last 3 have won nearly one-third of these races while generating a $21.40 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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August Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries during August.

How Do Maidens Match Up in 2-Year-Old Stakes Races?

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all North American 2-year-old stakes races since 2013 and the performances of the maidens entered in those.

Click here to read more

Is It Harder for Sprinters to Maintain Their Form Than Route Runners?

The rigorous, all-out nature of sprint races leads many horseplayers to believe that it’s more difficult for these horses to maintain their best form. Sprint fields also are less spread-out typically than routes, giving more opportunity for bad racing luck.

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Is 10-furlongs a Hurdle for Horses to Prove Their Mettle? 

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all North American dirt races at one mile and one-quarter, finding 226 such races since 2014. The comparison will be for average winning payoff, percentage of winning favorites and percentage of races won by longshots 10-1 or more.

Click here to read more

Is Luis Saez Getting on the Best Mounts?

Horseplayers (and trainers) often will shrink the importance of riders and associate their success simply by who is the best passenger on the best horse. The winningest jockeys get the best mounts, or, the best mounts go to the jockeys atop the standings.

Click here to read more

July Handicapping Myths

May Handicapping Myths

April Handicapping Myths

Sharp Angles – Sword Dancer S.

Sword Dancer S. (G1) at Saratoga
12F on Turf (August 28)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 12-furlong graded turf stakes at Saratoga
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 8 winners (44%, $24.10 Win Return, 166 ROI%), 9 Place (50%), 10 show (55%)

The 2021 Saratoga meeting reaches its pinnacle on Saturday with a star-studded card that includes 6 Grade 1 heats.

The Sword Dancer S. is among those and has drawn a very competitive field of 7, all with a chance for glory in the 12-furling turf marathon.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that consistency has has been important in the mile and one half turf stakes at The Spa. The In the Money % handicapping factor has pointed to 44% winners and 55 on the board finishers in this racetype. The Win Return of $24.10 has made bettors smile as well.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Del Mar Mile

Del Mar Mile S. (G2) at Del Mar
8F on Turf (August 21)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 43 8-furlong turf graded stakes at Del Mar
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 50 contenders, 17 winners (34%, $19.80 Win Return, 119 ROI%), 24 Place (48%, $0.70 Place Return), 34 show (68%, $23.40)

The Grade 2 Del Mar Mile helps anchor Saturday's big Pacific Classic day card at Del Mar. The field has drawn a highly competitive bunch of older vying for a berth in the Breeders Cup Mile.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for guidance and discovered that 34% of the past 43 8-furlong graded turf stakes at the Pacific shore oval fell to the horse ranking first in the Best Speed Last 3 handicapping factor.

The 17 winners in the sample have generated a healthy $19.80 Win Return and nearly 70% of the contenders have factored in the trifecta with the Show Return ($23.40) actually exceeding the Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Fourstardave S.

Fourstardave S. (G1) at Saratoga
8F on Turf (August 14)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 16 one-mile graded turf stakes at Saratoga
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%, $31.90 Win Return, 192 ROI%), 6 Place (35%), 7 show (41%)

A trio of Grade 1 winners square off against 5 other Graded winners in Saturday's renewal of the Fourstardave S. (G1) at Saratoga.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database was built to help separate the contenders from the pretenders evenly matched fields like this one. A query reveals that the Avg. Last 3 E2 Pace handicapping factor has pointed to 35% winners of the recent 8-furlong grassy graded stakes at The Spa. These winners have rewarded their backers with a sterling $31.50 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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