Last week we took a look at the 2020 juvenile sires that helped handicappers out the most. This week, we surveyed the Betmix Angler online database to shed light on the most profitable 2020 turf sires.
As in past years, we found that only a handful of stallions' progeny provided bettors with a year-long flat Win Return profit. In 2020 it was only three - Lookin At Lucky, Speightstown and Pioneerof the Nile.
What's useful, though, is that these three stallions are much better known for their dirt runners. With these results, Angler tells us to pay attention to these three sires grass runners in 2021, potentially providing an edge over horseplayers lacking this knowledge.
The Preakness-winning Curlin son Lookin At Lucky was a revelation. His Win Return was certainly buoyed by $149.20 winner Lessons from Avery in a May 24 Allowance contest at Churchill Downs. But he was anything but a one-hit wonder as evidenced by his sample-leading 31.04% turf Win % and he had 10 more 2020 turf winners that paid over $20 to win bettors.
Richard R. Scherer Memorial S. 5.5F on Turf at Fair Grounds (December 19) Races Analyzed: Last 50 Fair Grounds 5.5-furlong turf stakes Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money % Factor Stats: 56 contenders, 15 winners (26%) 61.40 Win Return, 154 ROI%, 27 place/show (48%) $9.40 Place Return
It's Fair Grounds turn to offer a multiple stakes card on Saturday and horseplayers will be treated to six competitive blacktype events.
The Richard R. Scherer Memorial drew an especially tough field of 11 turf sprinters, so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help.
Angler tells us that In the Money % has yielded 26% winners who have generated a fantastic $61.40 Win Return. Nearly half of the contenders have, indeed, hit-the-board producing a plus Place Return as well.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use theIn the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Fort Lauderdale S. (G2) 9F on Turf at Gulfstream Park (December 12) Races Analyzed: Last 20 Gulfstream Park 9-furlong graded turf stakes Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 6 winners (30%) $92.80 Win Return, 332 ROI%, 11 place/show (55%) $10.30 Place Return 7 $2.90 Show Return.
Gulfstream Park hosts a spectacular five-stakes card on Saturday that includes a very salty renewal of the Ft. Lauderdale S. (G2) for middle distance turfers.
This contest begged analysis from the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and, true to form, Angler highlighted a positive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded grass events in Hallandale, Florida.
Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace has pointed to 30% winners of this race type, producing a mouth-watering $92.80 Win Return. Among the winners is last year's Ft. Lauderdale champ, Instilled Regard ($8.60).
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use theAvg. of Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Seabiscuit H. (G2) 8.5F on Turf at Del Mar (November 28) Races Analyzed: Last 22 Del Mar 8.5-furlong graded turf stakes Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Lifetime Speed Factor Stats: 31 contenders, 7 winners (22%), $59.80 Win Return, 196 ROI%, 13 place/show (41%), $8.00 Place Return.
There is a cornucopia of stakes racing across North America over Thanksgiving weekend. Among the many blacktype races at Del Mar, in particular, is the Grade 2 Seabiscuit Handicap that drew a full field of middle distance turfers.
A query of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database has revealed a positive handicapping factor for these 8.5-furlong graded races run over the Del Mar lawn.
Best Lifetime Speed has pointed to 22% winners of this race type, producing a juicy $59.80 Win Return. Among the winners is Next Shares, who captured the 2019 Seabiscuit at odds of 27-1.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use theBest Lifetime Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Ontario Derby (G3) 9F on All-Weather at Woodbine (November 21) Races Analyzed: Last 14 Woodbine 9-furlong main track stakes Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer/Jockey Combo Win %Meet Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 6 winners (42%), $31.80 Win Return, 213 ROI%, 12 place/show (85%), $7.80 Place Return.
Saturday's Grade 3 Ontario Derby at Woodbine has drawn a solid field of eight sophomores, seven of whom are seeking their first graded trophy.
A query of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database has revealed a positive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded races run over Woodbine's main oval.
Trainer/Jockey Combo Win % Meet has pointed to 42% winners of this race type, producing a $31.80 Win Return. It's a whopping 85% in-the-money figure so this factor appears to be perfect place to start handicapping this race.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use theTrainer/Jockey Combo Win % Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) 6F on Dirt (November 7) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 Keeneland graded dirt stakes at 6F Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Last 3 Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 9 winners (42%, $9.60 Win Bet Return, 122 ROI%), 15 place/show (71%, $25.20 Place Bet Return & $6.90 Show Bet Return)
The Sprint is often one of the most difficult Breeders' Cup races for handicappers to decipher and this year's 13-horse heat is no different.
With this in mind, we queried the Betmix Angler online handicapping database to look for clues in the 6-furlong graded dirt stakes at Keeneland, host of this year's Breeders' Cup.
It's intuitive that speed would be king in these top-level sprint races and Angler confirms this. The Best Speed Last 3 handicapping factor has pointed to the 42% winners in these races, including the first Keeneland Breeders' Cup Sprint hero Runhappy ($5.20).
There is also some recency on the side of this Sharp Angle with Empire of Gold the 51-1 runner up in Keeneland's October 2 Phoenix Stakes.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Breeders' Cup week is here and horseplayers are salivating at the bounty of wagering opportunities on tap at Keeneland.
Betmix online handicapping database users inherently have an advantage because of the wealth of information and perspective that's not available to the general public.
One such edge is sire information. With five Breeders' Cup races now carded on the grass at one mile and under, we queried the Betmix Angler database to specifically look at sire performance in these race types.
The chart below lays out the data for sires with runners in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, Juvenile Turf Sprint, Mile, Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf.
The young Florida-based Chitu was surprisingly the most profitable sire in terms of Win Return, albeit from a smaller sample of 51 progeny starts. Overall, 11 sires have shown been a positive for handicappers in North American turf sprints/miles since 2012, including Sir Prancelot who has a pair of Breeders Cup contenders that handicappers must consider.