Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Pedigree Handicapping – Breeders’ Cup Turf Speed Sires

Breeders' Cup week is here and horseplayers are salivating at the bounty of wagering opportunities on tap at Keeneland.

Betmix online handicapping database users inherently have an advantage because of the wealth of information and perspective that's not available to the general public.

One such edge is sire information. With five Breeders' Cup races now carded on the grass at one mile and under, we queried the Betmix Angler database to specifically look at sire performance in these race types.

The chart below lays out the data for sires with runners in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, Juvenile Turf Sprint, Mile, Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The young Florida-based Chitu was surprisingly the most profitable sire in terms of Win Return, albeit from a smaller sample of 51 progeny starts. Overall, 11 sires have shown been a positive for handicappers in North American turf sprints/miles since 2012, including Sir Prancelot who has a pair of Breeders Cup contenders that handicappers must consider.

Sharp Angles – Breeders S.

Breeders S.
12F on Turf at Woodbine (October 24)
Races Analyzed
: Last 40 Woodbine 12-furlong turf stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 51 contenders, 12 winners (23%), $99.30 Win Return, 197 ROI%, 25 place/show (49%), $7.40 Place Return.

The North American classics season officially and belatedly closes out this weekend at Woodbine with the Breeders Stakes.

It's another competitive, double-digit field for this Canadian Classic and begged a closer look from the Betmix Angler online handicapping database.

Angler reveals that Best Speed Last 3 has been a very profitable handicapping factor in the 12-furlong grass stakes at Woodbine. It's produced 23% winners and a very compelling $99.30 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Raven Run S.

Raven Run S. (G2)
7F on Dirt (October 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 31 Keeneland graded dirt stakes at 7F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey Current Meet
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 6 winners (30%, $46.40 Win Bet Return, 216 ROI%), 9 place/show (45%, $14.60 Place Bet Return)

Two years ago, Shamrock Rose used an upset tally in the Raven Run Stakes as a springboard to victory in the Breeders' Cup F & M Sprint.

Time will tell if any of the 10 fillies lined up for Saturday's Raven Run will go on to greater glory, but handicappers must first decipher this very competitive field.

We scanned the Betmix Angler online handicapping database looking for clues to handicapping success in these 7-furlong graded dirt stakes at Keeneland and found that Jockey Current Meet has been very productive.

A full 30% of the contenders carrying the meet's top rider have cashed and cashed well - a $46.40 Win Return. The sample includes two of the past four Raven Run heroines - Lightstream the $6.80 winner under Julien Leparoux in 2016 and the aforementioned Shamrock Rose (Tyler Gaffalione) who returned $39.40 to her backers in 2018.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Fayette S.

Fayette S. (G2)
9F on Dirt (October 8)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 32 Keeneland graded dirt stakes at 9F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 32 contenders, 8 winners (25%, 59.00 Win Bet Return, 192 ROI%), 21 place/show (65%, $28.80 Place Bet Return and $20.20 Show Bet Return)

Saturday's co-featured Fayette S. at Keeneland had attracted a very evenly-matched field of older handicap runners.

We queried the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some help and found that Average Last 3 E1 Pace has yielded a very nice profit in the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Keeneland.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Pimlico Special & Preakness S.

Pimlico Special (G3) & Preakness S. (G1)
9.5F on Dirt at Pimlico (October 2 & 3)
Races Analyzed
: Last 13 Pimlico 9.5-furlong dirt graded stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 5 winners (38%), $51.60 win bet return, 298 ROI%, 8 show (61%), $4.50 Place Return & $7.10 Show Return.

The timing may be strange but there are plenty of good wagering opportunities on this October Preakness Stakes weekend, including a Double linking Friday's Pimlico Special and Saturday's Preakness Stakes.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help in the 9.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at Pimlico which wholly includes these two races.

Angler tells us that us Last E2 Pace has pointed to 38% winners, 61% show finishes and positive Returns all across the board.

This factor has also pointed to three of the past seven Preakness winners, including the double digit winners Oxbow ($32.80) and Cloud Computing ($28.80) as well as two recent Special winners - Irish War Cry ($10.00) and Last Gunfighter ($3.20).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Ack Ack S.

Ack Ack S. (G3)
8F on Dirt at Churchill Downs (September 26)
Races Analyzed
: Last 25 Churchill Downs 8-furlong dirt graded stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Purse
Factor Stats: 25 contenders, 8 winners (32%), $34.40 win bet return, 168 ROI%, 14 place/show (56%), $3.00 Place Return & $2.00 Show Return.

Racing fans are treated a slew of Breeders' Cup preps this weekend, including the Ack Ack S. at Churchill Downs. The race has drawn a field of 13 sprinter/milers vying for a berth in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

These tough and competitive contests are made for Betmix Angler analysis and a query of this powerful online database has uncovered a profitable handicapping factor.

Angler tells us that class rules in the 8-furlong dirt graded stakes under the Twin Spires as Average Last 3 Purse has pointed to 32% winners, 56% in-the-money finishes and positive Returns for the Win, Place and Show spots.

This factor has also pointed to three of the past four Ack Ack winners, including the double digit winners Tom's Ready ($11.80 in 2016) and Mr. Freeze, who returned $14.80 to his backers last year.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 Purse slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Woodbine Mile S.

Woodbine Mile (G1)
8F on Turf at Woodbine (September 19)
Races Analyzed
: Last 45 Woodbine 8-furlong turf graded stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey 1-year Win %
Factor Stats: 44 contenders, 10 winners (22%), $99.10 win bet return, 212 ROI%, 20 place/show (45%), $20.80 Place Return.

The lone Saturday Grade 1 in North America is the Woodbine Mile north of the U. S. border in Toronto.

This year's edition has drawn a field of talented and hard-knocking turf milers so we scanned the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some perspective.

Looking at the past 44 one-mile graded turf stakes at Woodbine, Jockey 1-Year Win % has yielded positive returns for handicappers.

This factor has pointed to 3 of the past 6 Woodbine Mile heroes, including last year's champ El Tormenta. His 44-1 shocker is a big reason the overall Win Return for this handicapping factor shows at a whopping $99.10.

However, this factor has also pointed to, among others, 2015 winner Mondialiste ($9.60) and Dixie Moon, the 13-1 runner-up in 2017.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey 1-Year Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Queen’s Plate

Queen's Plate
10F on Tapeta at Woodbine (September 12)
Races Analyzed
: Last 21 Woodbine 10-furlong main track stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 24 contenders, 8 winners (33%), $71.70 win bet return, 249 ROI%, 15 place/show (61%), $3.70 Place Return and $.50 Show Return.

It's finally time for the 161th running of the $1 million Queen's Plate!

This year's edition has drawn a typically competitive field of 14, just the kind of race that makes the Betmix Angler online handicapping software so valuable.

We scanned the Angler database for 10-furlong main course stakes at Woodbines since 2012 and found that Average of Last 3 E1 Pace has been a lucrative handicapping factor.

Over one third of the contenders ranking first in this factor have found the winner's circle while producing a spectacular $71.70 Win Return for bettors. The sample includes two of the past 7 Queen's Plate winners, Midnight Aria ($35.20) and Holy Helena ($6.30) plus two other Plate placers - Amis Gizmo (2nd at $2.55-1) and Asserting Bear (3rd at $8.40-1).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Pedigree Handicapping – Derby & Oaks Sires

A total of 21 stallions have contenders in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks and Derby fields. While the September placement of these two Classics means we have a better idea of the actual distance aptitudes of this year's runners, adding some pedigree context should prove useful.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database has a wealth of sire information. We queried Angler for Derby/Oaks sire progeny performance in all two-turn races (8.5 furlongs and longer since 2012) and the results are presented in the chart below, sorted by Win %.

From a small sample, Daredevil, sire of two Oaks players including close second choice Swiss Skydiver, leads the way in that category. The great veteran sire Uncle Mo, sire of an Oaks and Derby contender this year, checks in next with a two-turn win rate of nearly 19%.

Angler also revealed some interesting figures in terms of Win Return. The young sire Bayern is the sire of a pair of longshot Oaks entrants and his longshots appear right at home in two-turn races with a $110.60 Win Return. Paynter, sire of Derby longshot Winning Impression, is another with a three-figure Win Return.

Sharp Angles – Sword Dancer S.

Sword Dancer S. (G1)
12F on Turf (August 29)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 13 Saratoga Graded turf stakes at 12F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 8 winners (57%, $32.10 Win Bet Return 214 ROI%), 10 place/show (71%, $6.60 Place Bet Return)

The penultimate Saturday of the 2020 Saratoga meeting is anchored by a pair of Grade 1 heats, including the Sword Dancer for turf marathoners.

We queried the Betmix online handicapping database for clues to decipher this competitive 8-horse affair and found that consistency is the key.

Contenders ranking first in In the Money % in the 12-furlong graded grass races at The Spa have found the winner's circle on 8 occasions, generating a sparkling $32.10 Win Return.

The 8 winners include 6 of the past 7 Sword Dancer conquerors, including 2017 champ Sadler's Joy ($16.00) and last year's hero Annals of Time ($7.10).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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