Belle Mahone S. (G3) at Woodbine 8.5F on All Weather (June 3, 2023) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 83 Woodbine main track graded stakes at 8.5F Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey Combo 2-Year Win % Factor Stats: 86 contenders, 26 winners (30%, $43.50 Win Return, 125 ROI%), 40 Place (46%), 54 Show (63%)
Moira makes her 2023 debut in Saturday's G3 Belle Mahone S. at Woodbine and the reigning Canadian Horse of the Year figures to take attract the bulk of support at the windows. But is she vulnerable?
We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database, that holds data for the past 80+ 8.5F graded stakes on the Woodbine main track, for some insights.
Angler tells us that Trainer/Jockey Combo 2-Year Win % has pointed to 30% winners of this race type and that those winners have generated a very healthy $43.50 Win Return.
Triple Bend S. (G2) at Santa Anita 7F on Dirt (May 27, 2023) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 79 graded dirt stakes at Santa Anita Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3 Factor Stats: 95 contenders, 34 winners (35%, $58.40 Win Return, 130 ROI%), 48 Place (50%), 60 Show (63%)
The Triple Bend Stakes is one of two Stakes on the Saturday card at Santa Anita and one of eight big ones over Memorial Day weekend at The Great Race Place.
A field of seven salty sprinters has been drawn for the race that honors the former world record-holder at the 7 furlong distance (1:19.4) so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help.
Angler tells us that Best Speed Last 3 has pointed to 35% winners in these 7 furlong graded dirt stakes at Santa Anita and that those winners have generated a very healthy $58.40 Win Return.
Preakness S. (G1) at Pimlico 9.5F on Dirt (May 20, 2023) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 10 Preakness Stakes Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 3 winners (21%, $36.40 Win Return, 230 ROI%), 4 Place (28%, $14.00 Place Return), 6 Show (42%, $5.00 Place Return)
The 2023 Preakness Stakes offers high intrigue as usual. Will Mage become the first Derby winner to capture the Preakness since 2018 or will one of the seven new shooters wear the Black-Eyed Susans?
We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for insight and found that the Last Late Pace handicapping factor has been productive in the Preakness in recent years.
In fact, the past three Preakness winners have ranked first in this factor and all of them paid double digits - Early Voting ($13.40), Rombauer ($25.60) and Swiss Skydiver ($25.40)!
Peter Pan S. (G3) at Belmont Park 9F on Dirt (May 13, 2023) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 23 9F graded dirt stakes at Belmont Park Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Speed Last 3 Factor Stats: 27 contenders, 15 winners (55%, $25.10 Win Return, 146 ROI%), 20 Place (74%, $8.40 Place Return), 22 Show (81%)
The Kentucky Derby may be in the rearview mirror but there are still some important 3-year-old stakes to be run this spring. Case in point is Saturday´s Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park which has drawn field typical of the recent history of the race. This year´s starting gate includes colts trying to run their way into the Belmont Stakes along with runners just trying to prove they belong at the graded stakes level.
With such an eclectic group we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found that the Avg. Speed Last 3 handicapping factor has been helpful in the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Belmont.
Some 55% of the contenders have had their pictures taken while producing a $25.10 Win Return. And over 80% have factored in the trifecta. The winners include a trio of recent Peter Pan heroes - Unified ($3.10), Blended Citizen ($11.40) and Timeline ($2.90) - as well as last year´s Peter Pan runner-up Golden Glider.
(Click on Horse Name to view full 5-cross pedigree)
Forte Violence - Queen Caroline by Blame All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.65F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 245 starters, 25 wins, 10.20% Progeny at 10F/+: 20 starts, 2 wins, 10% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Vibrance, 3rd G3 Red Carpet S. (11F/Turf)
Likely favorite Forte is one of two colts by the Hill ´n´Dale Farms stallion Violence, a precocious son of Medaglia d´Oro (Raise Cain is the other). Violence was a 2YO debut winner going 6F at Saratoga, with future Derby champ Orb back in 3rd. He remained unbeaten that season with subsequent wins in the G2 Nashua Stakes going a mile and the G1 CashCall Futurity at 8.5F. One of the early faves for the 2013 Classics, Violence started only once at 3, a runner-up showing to none other than Orb in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Forte is his 4th G1 winner and first around 2 turns. Forte´s dam, Queen Caroline, was a 4x Stakes winner on turf at 8 and 8.5F and earned over $400,000. Her sire, Blame, is best known for handing Zenyatta her lone career defeat in the 2010 10F Breeders´ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. He hails from the distance-oriented sire line of Roberto, through Kris S. and Arch, and is considered one of the rising young broodmare sires. His daughters have produced nearly 10% blacktype winners from starters, including last year´s Kentucky Oaks co-third choice Kathleen O and this year´s Oaks contender Botanical.
Angel of Empire Classic Empire - Armony´s Angel by To Honor and Serve All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.80 Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 42 starts, 6 wins, 14.29% Progeny at 10F/+: 5 starts, 0 wins Best progeny finish at 10F/+: 0 wins
Angel of Empire hails from the second crop by the Pioneerof the Nile son Classic Empire. This Fappiano sire line has produced 6 Kentucky Derby winners starting with the Fappiano son Unbridled in 1990. Unbridled´s own first crop in 1995 had the Derby favorite (Unbridled´s Song) and Derby winner (Grindstone) and the Fappiano grandson Real Quiet (by Quiet American) scored three years later. Mine That Bird, a son of Grindstone´s Belmont hero Birdstone upset Pioneerof the Nile, a son of Unbridled´s 2003 beaten Derby fave/Belmont winner Empire Maker. Pioneerof the Nile subsequently avenged his Derby defeat as the sire of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah while the Empire Maker grandson Always Dreaming (by 2012 Derby 2nd Bodemeister) wore the roses in 2017. Angel of Empire´s dam, Armory´s Angel, was winless in 8 starts and is a half-sister to GSW miler Conquest Big E. Armory´s Angel is a daughter of the Bernardini son To Honor and Serve, a failed sire who whose signature victory on track came in the 2012 G1 Woodward at 9F over Mucho Macho Man.
Tapit Trice Tapit - Danzatrice by Dunkirk All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.68F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 999 starts, 127 wins, 12.71% Progeny at 10F/+: 391 starts, 48 wins, 12.2% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: G1 Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist, Creator and Tapwrit (12F/Dirt)
Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice probably has the bluest blood of this year´s Kentucky Derby contenders. He´s a $1.3 million yearling by living legend Tapit. While he´s yet to sire a Derby victor, he already has a trio of Belmont Stakes champions on his resume and is considered one of the few, true distance influences among current North American stallions. Tapit Trice´s pedigree also shows duplications of both Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Tapit´s damsire) and his own grandsire, Belmont winner A. P. Indy. His dam was a 3x Stakes winner/G3-placed at 8.5F and is a half sis to 2018 G1 Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Eclipse Award Champion Jaywalk.
Two Phil´s Hard Spun - Mia Torri by General Quarters All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.64 Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 443 starts, 52 wins, 11.74% Progeny at 10F/+: 249 starts, 49 wins, 19.6% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Hardest Core, G1 Arlington Million (10F/Turf) & Questing G1 Alabama (10F/Dirt)
Two Phil´s has been a perfect representative of his very good, very versatile sire Hard Spun. A son of the great Danzig, Hard Spun too scored graded victories on dirt and all weather and was a second to Street Sense in the 2007 Run for the Roses (finishing ahead of Curlin). He´s the sire of 15 G1 winners at all distances and on all surfaces, including winners of the 10F Alabama on dirt and Arlington Million on turf. His progeny win at nearly a 20% clip when sent 10 furlongs or longer. Two Phil´s dam Mia Torri is by General Quarters, who qualified for the 2009 Derby with a win in the G1 Blue Grass (over all weather) and scored in the G1 Turf Classic on Derby Day a year later. Mia Torri herself was a multiple SW/G3-placed sprinter in her racing days.
Derma Sotogake (Jpn) Mind Your Biscuits - Amour Poesie (Jpn) by Neo Universe (Jpn) All Progeny Average Winning Distance: NA Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: No starters Progeny at 10F/+: No U. S. starters Best progeny finish at 10F/+: No U. S. starters
Derma Sotogake is by the top sprinter/miler Mind Your Biscuits, who won the G1 Malibu at 7F and the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen at 6F in 2007 and 2008. He also ran 2nd in the G1 Met Mile and G1 Breeders´ Cup Sprint and hails from a speedy branch of the Deputy Minister sire line (Silver Deputy>>>Posse). He does get stamina from the bottom side of his pedigree. His dam was a stakes winner at 10.5F and is by multiple Japanese graded stakes winner Neo Universe, who won the Japanese Derby at 12F. It´s hard to find a top level Japanese pedigree without 1989 Kentucky Derby hero Sunday Silence involved, and indeed Neo Universe is a son of that legendary stallion.
Kingsbarns Uncle Mo - Lady Tapit by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.47F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 373 starts, 54 wins, 14.48% Progeny at 10F/+: 153 starts, 26 wins, 17% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: G1 Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal (12F/Dirt)
Uncle Mo sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist in his first crop and hasn´t looked back. He´s now up to 12 G1 winners, from 6F to 12F, on dirt and turf, including last year´s Belmont Stakes conqueror Mo Donegal. Kingsbarns is one of 4 Derby contenders out of the daughters of Tapit, who is a son of Mo Donegal´s damsire Pulpit. His dam, Lady Tapit, was placed at the G3 level and is a half sister to Gozzip Girl, winner of the grassy G1 American Oaks at 10F.
Raise Cain Violence - Lemon Belle by Lemon Drop Kid All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.65F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 245 starters, 25 wins, 10.20% Progeny at 10F/+: 20 starters, 2 wins, 10% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Vibrance, 3rd G3 Red Carpet S. (11F/Turf)
The ´other´ Violence in the field is out Lemon Belle, a winning daughter of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, who also captured the G1 Travers and G2 Suburban at 10F. Lemon Belle is a half-sister to 2010 G1 Breeders´ Cup Distaff (at 9F) heroine Unrivaled Belle. Should Raise Cain pull off a Derby upset he would be the 15th G1 winner out of a mare by Lemon Drop Kid.
Rocket Can Into Mischief - Tension by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.80F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 818 starts, 136 wins, 16.63% Progeny at 10F/+: 66 starts, 11 wins, 16.6% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Authentic, 1st G1 Kentucky Derby (10F/Dirt)
If you count Mandaloun, who would not run past the subsequently DQ´d Medina Spirit in 2021, 4x leading U. S. sire Into Mischief has a pair of Kentucky Derby winners on his legend-in-his-own time resume. He´s also the sire of the 2020 "pandemic" Derby winner Authentic. The Into Mischief progeny do tend to be best up to 9F and Rocket Can may prove to be a good example of that. He is another out of a mare by Tapit, whose other graded stakes winners as a damsire include 10F G1 Pacific Classic winner Tripoli. Rocket Can´s dam Tension was winless in 2 starts and is herself a daughter Tough Tiz´s Sis, a 2X G1 winner at 8.5F by 2X Breeders´ Cup Classic champ Tiznow.
Hit Show Candy Ride - Actress - Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.12F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 616 starts, 91 wins, 14.77% Progeny at 10F/+: 168 starts, 20 wins, 11.90% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Gun Runner, 1st Breeders´ Cup Classic (10F, Dirt), Shared Belief, 1st G1 Pacific Classic (10F, Dirt), etc.
Before he developed into one of North America´s leading sires, the unbeaten Candy Ride was a champion miler in his native Argentina before an abbreviated but brilliant 3-race campaign in North America culminating with a sensational victory in the 10F G1 Pacific Classic over Medgalia d´Oro. Hit Show is among Candy Ride´s 5 SWs from just 25 starters out of mares by Tapit, a 20% strike rate. His dam, Actress, was a graded SW at 7F who also captured the G2 8.5F Black-Eyed Susan. Her dam was a champion in Canada while also placing in the 10F Queen´s Plate (vs. males) and the G1 10F Alabama.
Confidence Game Candy Ride - Eblouissante by Bernardini All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.12F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 616 starts, 91 wins, 14.77% Progeny at 10F/+:168 starts, 20 wins, 11.90% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Gun Runner, 1st Breeders´ Cup Classic (10F, Dirt), Shared Belief, 1st G1 Pacific Classic (10F, Dirt), etc.
Confidence Game is another son of Candy Ride, who is a grandson of the tough Fappiano son Cryptoclearance. A foal of 1984, "Crypto¨ danced all the dances during his 1987 3-year-old season against the likes of Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch, Gone West and Java Gold, winning the Florida Derby and placing in the Preakness, Belmont and Travers. Confidence Game´s dam, Eblouissante, is by the magnificent broodmare sire Bernardini (by A. P. Indy), whose daughters have produced 15 G1 winners. Eblouissante is a winning half-sister to the great Breeders´ Cup Classic heroine and Hall of Famer Zenyatta (and to G1 9F Santa Oaks winner Balance).
Verifying Justify - Diva Delite by Repent All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.94F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 19 starts, 3 wins, 15.79% Progeny at 10F/+: No starters Best progeny finish at 10F/+: No starters
Verifying has one of the stronger pedigrees in this year´s Kentucky Derby field. He´s from the first crop by 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify out of the G3 Floria Oaks (8.5F) winner Diva Delite, who´s better known now as the dam of 2019 Eclipse Award Champion Midnight Bisou, a 13X SW from 7F to 9F, who earned nearly $7.5 million. No wonder Verifying cost $750,000 as a yearling.
Sun Thunder Into Mischief - Greenfield d´Oro by Medaglia d´Oro All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.80F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 818 starts, 136 wins, 16.63% Progeny at 10F/+: 66 starts, 11 wins, 16.6% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Authentic, 1st G1 Kentucky Derby (10F/Dirt)
Like Rocket Can, Sun Thunder is a son of Into Mischief, whose progeny do tend to be best up to 9F. Unlike Rocket Can, Sun Thunder has yet to break through with his first Stakes victory and his only blackype run was a 2nd in the G2 Risen Star at 9F. His dam, the Medaglia d´Oro daughter Greenfield d´Oro, was winless in 2 starts and she´s a half-sister Radio Silence, a G2-placed juvenile in Ireland. Sun Thunder´s 2nd dam is the Eclipse Champion Female Sprinter Maryfield. So the female line is also slanted toward speed.
Mage Good Magic - Puca by Big Brown All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.08F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 25 starts, 5 wins, 20% Progeny at 10F/+: No starters Best progeny finish at 10F/+: No starters
Mage is one of two colt from the first crop by Good Magic to run his way into the 2023 Kentucky Derby starting gate. A son of Curlin, Good Magic broke his maiden in the 2017 Breeders´ Cup Juvenile at 8.5F and validated that form at 3 with wins in the G1 Blue Grass and G1 Haskell Invitational, both at 8F. He was nearly 10-1 in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and only Triple Crown hero Justify prevented him from wearing the roses. Mage´s dam, Puca, is by 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown and is a half-sister to the millionaire G1-winning turf marathoner Finnegan´s Wake. Puca won the Steve Pini Memorial at 8.32F on Turf (defeating Forte´s dam Queen Caroline) and also ran 2nd in the G2 Gazelle at 9F on dirt. Puca previously produce Gunning, 3rd in Audubon Oaks at 7F.
Disarm Gun Runner - Easy Tap by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.29F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 133 starts, 24 wins, 18.05% Progeny at 10F/+: 17 starts, 1 win, 5.88% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Hitting Bombs, 1st Maiden Special (12F, Turf)
Disarm is by young super sire Gun Runner, who ran 3rd to Nyquist and Exaggerator in the 2016 Derby before blossoming into a Horse of the Year, future Hall of Famer and earner of nearly $16 million (2nd only to Arrogate among North American-based runners). Gun Runner is already the sire 6 G1 winners, including 2022 Derby competitors Taiba and Cyberknife, not to mention last year´s Preakness hero Early Voting. He has an exceptional record with Tapit mares too as 8 of his 22 starters on this cross have earned blacktype, a 36% strike rate. Those include 2022 G1 Cotillion winner Society and two other colts on the 2023 Triple Crown prep trail in Red Route One and Dreamlike. Disarm is a half brother to Tap Daddy, who placed in a pair of middle distance Stakes in the U. S. before becoming Champion Stayer in Venezuela.
Reincarnate Good Magic - Scat Daddy by Johannesburg All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.08F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 25 starts, 5 wins, 20% Progeny at 10F/+: No starters Best progeny finish at 10F/+: No starters
Reincarnate is the second member of the first crop by Good Magic to run his way into the 2023 Kentucky Derby starting gate. As mentioned in the Mage profile, Good Magic is a Kentucky Derby winner if not for Justify. Reincarnate´s dam, Allanah, is actually a daughter of Justify´s Florida Derby-winning sire Scat Daddy. She won the 6.5F Cincinnati Trophy S. in her racing days and is out of a daughter of the brilliant speedster Holy Bull, beaten fave in the 1994 Kentucky Derby.
Jace´s Road Quality Road - Out Post by Silver Deputy All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.46F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 412 starts, 39 wins, 9.47% Progeny at 10F/+: 161 starts, 20 wins, 12.42% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: 3 G1 winners at 10F - Spring Quality (Turf), Dunbar Road (Dirt), Bleecker Street (Turf)
Jace´s Road is by one of North America´s top stallions in Quality Road, the likely favorite for the 2009 Kentucky Derby if not for an training injury after his convincing wins in the G2 Fountain of Youth and G1 Florida Derby at 8F. Jace´s Road´s dam, Out Post, was a tough turf sprinter in her first career, hitting the board in 13 of her 20 starts and placing in two Stakes races while banking over $200,000. She´s a daughter of the Deputy Minister son Silver Deputy and Jace´s Road is bred on Quality Road´s best cross. Quality Road is the sire of 8 SWs out of mares by Deputy Minister line stallions, including his brilliant G1 winner City of Light (dam by the Deputy Minister son Dehere) and his G1 Kentucky Oaks heroine Abel Tasman (dam by Deputy Minister).
Skinner All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.64F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 655 starts, 95 wins, 14.50% Progeny at 10F/+: 334 starts, 43 wins, 12.8% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Several G1 winners, including Breeders´ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso
Santa Anita Derby 3rd Skinner is by Curlin out of an A. P. Indy granddaughter. Curlin has sired 23 stakes winners and 8 G1SWs, including champions Nest, Malathaat and Stellar Wind, when bred to daughters and granddaughters of A. P. Indy. Like Stellar Wind, Skinner is out of a daughter of Malibu Moon. His dam, Winding Way, was most adept at sprinting with her signature win coming in the 2012 G3 Rancho Bernardo H. at 6.5F at Del Mar.
Cyclone Mischief Into Mischief - Areyoucominghere by Bernardini All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.80F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 818 starts, 136 wins, 16.63% Progeny at 10F/+: 66 starts, 11 wins, 16.6% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Authentic, 1st G1 Kentucky Derby (10F/Dirt)
With Cyclone Mischief a late addition to the Derby starting gate, super sire Into Mischief will be represented by three colts in the race. His dam, Areyoucoming here, was unplaced in two starts but is a daughter of the the A. P. Indy son Bernardini, whose daughters have already produced 15 G1 winners, not to mention another 2023 Derby contender in Confidence Game (by Candy Ride). Areyoucoming is a half- sister to Suddenbreakingnews, the 2016 G1 Arkansas Derby runner-up (before a 5th place run in the Derby). While Cyclone Mischief is physically built more like a sprinter/miler, there is some distance aptitude on the bottom side of the pedigree with damsire Bernardini and the next two dams being being by Preakness/Belmont hero Afleet Alex and 2-time Prix de l´Arc de Triomphe (12F, Turf) winner Alleged.
Mandarin Hero (Jpn) Shanghai Bobby - Namura Nadeshiko (Jpn) by Fuji Kiseki (Jpn) All Progeny Average Winning Distance: NA Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 112 starters, 15 wins, 13.39% Progeny at 10F/+: 26 starts, 1 win, 3.85% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Alpha Zulu, 1st Maiden Special (10F, Turf)
Like his fellow Japanese-breds Continuar and Derma Sotogake, Mandarin Hero is by a prominent North American runner in Shanghai Bobby. But unlike the sires of those contenders, Shanghai Bobby initially stood in Kentucky so we have some North American data on his progeny. In his racing days, Shanghai Bobby was a precocious son of Harlan´s Holiday (also the sire of Into Mischief), who began his career with five straight victories, including the G2 Hopeful (7F, Dirt), G1 Champagne (8F, Dirt) and G1 Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (8.5F, Dirt). Shanghai Bobby never regained that top level form as a 3-year-old and never sired top level runners consistently enough to avoid being exported to Japan. Mandarin Hero´s dam is by the Sunday Silence son Fuji Kiseki (Jpn), a SW at 8F and 10F. His daughters have produced 5 G1 winners, one at 10F. The rest of the pedigree is also slanted toward one-turn success as the second dam is a granddaughter of champion sprinter Shecky Greene and the 3rd dam is by the classy European miler Known Fact.
King Russell Creative Cause - Believe You Will by Proud Citizen All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.03 Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 206 starts, 27 wins, 13.11% Progeny at 10F/+: 61 starts, 7 wins, 11.48% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Creative Thinking, 1st Keetana S. (12F, Turf)
King Russell, the last horse to make it into the 2023 Kentucky Derby field is the Airdrie Stud stallion Creative Cause. A son of champion Giant´s Causeway, Creative Cause has had other runners knocking on the Classics door in recent years, namely My Boy Jack (5th in the 2018 Kentucky Derby) and Creative Minister, 3rd in last year´s Preakness. King Russell´s dam, Believe You Will, is a daughter of 2002 Kentucky Derby runner-up Proud Citizen out of the El Prado dam El Fasto. This makes her a full sister to 2012 Kentucky Oaks heroine Believe You Can.
Elkhorn S. (G2) 12F on the turf at Keeneland (April 22) Races Analyzed: 40 Keeneland grade stakes at 12 furlongs on turf Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey Current Meet Factor Stats: 51 contenders, 8 winners (15%, $34.20 Win Return, 133 ROI%), 19 Place (37%, $18.60 Place Return), 25 Show 49%, $6.10 Show Return)
Sometimes finding a winner is as easy as hopping aboard with the hottest jockey. That appears to be the way to go in the marathon turf stakes at Keeneland. The past 40 12-furlong stakes at the Lexington oval have yielded a total of 51 contenders ranked first in Jockey Current Meet. Eight (15%) have won, half of them at double-digit odds. The flat win bet profit on those 21 contenders is a juicy $34.20.
Nearly half of the contenders have hit the board so this factor is very good place to start when putting together an exotics ticket.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Lexington S. (G3) at 8.5F on Dirt (April 15) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 11 editions of the Lexington Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Purse Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 4 winners (26%, $45.60 Win Return 252 ROI%), 5 Place (33%, $8.80 Place Return), 8 Show (59%, $8.00 Show Return)
Last call for Kentucky Derby points! That will be the underlying theme when the bugler calls 11 sophomore colts postward for the Lexington Stakes on Saturday afternoon at Keeneland.
It´s been an exceptionally competitive Derby prep season, as evidenced by the fact that 45 qualifying points doesn't guarantee a spot in the 2023 Run for the Roses. Horseplayers face yet another handicapping challenge with this Lexington field so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for insights.
Angler shows us that the Avg. Last 3 Purse handicapping factor has produced good results in the Lexington, pointing to 4 of the past 11 winners including a pair of double digit winners in Senior Investment ($24.20 in 2017) and King Fury ($38.40 in 2021).
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Purse slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita 9F on Dirt (April 8) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 56 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Santa Anita Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace Factor Stats: 61 contenders, 21 winners (34%, $22.70 Win Return, 118 ROI%), 33 place (54%, $6.70 Place Return, 42 show (68%)
A field of 9 Kentucky Derby aspirants face off in Saturday´s historic Santa Anita Derby.
We surveyed the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for clues to success in the 9-furlong graded dirt Stakes at The Great Race Place and found that Avg. Last 3 Late Pace has produced 34% winners that have produced a $22.70 Win Return.
Among those are a quartet of Santa Anita Derby champs since 2014 - California Chrome ($3.40), Dortmund ($3.20), Roadster ($8.20) and last year´s hero Taiba ($10.60).
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use theAvg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park 9F on Dirt (April 1) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 31 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time Factor Stats: 43 contenders, 14 winners (32%, $105.20 Win Return, 222 ROI%), 18 place (41%), 20 Show (46%)
Saturday´s Florida Derby caps off an exciting 2023 South Florida route to the Kentucky Derby and is one of 10 Stakes races on the fascinating Gulfstream Park card.
We took the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for a spin for some Florida Derby insights & trends and found that the Last Turn Time handicapping factor has pointed to around one-third of the winners of the past 43 9-furlong graded dirt events at the Hallandale oval. And the Win Return is a whopping $105.20!
The sample includes 5 recent Florida Derby champs including the double digit winner Known Agenda ($12.80) in 2021.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
9F on Turf (March 25, 2022) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 21 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Fair Grounds Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Turn Time Factor Stats: 22 contenders, 6 winners (27%, $38.00 Win Return, 186 ROI%), 8 Place (36%, $15.20 Place Return), 10 Show (45%)
Handicappers are presented with some solid betting opportunities on Saturday´s big 8-Stakes card at Fair Grounds.
One potentially lucrative race for horseplayers is the Mervin Muniz Memorial that drew a salty group of nine middle distance turf runners.
We used the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze the past 21 9-furlong grass stakes at Fair Grounds and found that Average of Last 3 Turn Time has been a good predictor of success.
Nearly one third of the contenders ranking first in this factor have had their pictures taken while showing a sparkling $38.00 flat win return. Among those are 4 Muniz heroes since 2014 - Skyring ($17.40), Take The Stand ($18), Bricks and Mortar ($2.60) and Factor This ($21).