Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

July Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries for the big Del Mar & Saratoga meetings.

Do Barns Really Step Up for Del Mar?

The summer showcase meet at Del Mar is considered boutique for its relatively short length and high quality. For those reasons, there’s a narrative that everyone wants to find the winner’s circle at Del Mar. But are there trainers who actually find more success behind those apparent desires?

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Fast Starts Imperative at Saratoga & Del Mar?

Given the relatively short nature of high-class racing meetings at tracks like Saratoga and Del Mar, which get underway this week, horseplayers long have long leaned on those jockeys and trainers who get off to a successful start to the meet. The thought is that momentum is important and time is short on correcting a lack of it.

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Betmix Stats: Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields returns to live racing on July 23 to start a pair of three-day racing weeks. The winter-spring meet ended June 13, so it’s been about 6 weeks since the track last conducted live racing. With horses returning to the Bay Area from racing on the Pleasanton fair circuit, Emerald Downs in Washington and via Southern California, let’s dig into the Betmix database to see if we can gain any clues.

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May Handicapping Myths

April Handicapping Myths

March Handicapping Myths

Sharp Angles – Eddie Read S.

Eddie Read S. (G2) at Del Mar
9F on Turf (July 224)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 41 9-furlong turf graded stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey Current Meet
Factor Stats: 45 contenders, 13 winners (28%, $38.80 Win Return, 140 ROI%), 20 Place (44%, $10.00 Place Return), 25 show (55%, $5.70)

The Grade 2 Eddie Read S. helps anchor the second Saturday card of the 2021 Del Mar summer meeting and it's drawn a salty group of older middle-distance turf stars.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for guidance for this difficult handicapping puzzle. Angler tells us that 28% of the past 45 8-furlong graded turf stakes at the Pacific shore oval fell to the horse ranking first in the Jockey Current Meet handicapping factor.

The sample includes six of the past seven Eddie Read champs - United (2020/$4.80), Bowies Hero (2019/$8.80), Catapult (2018/$44.00), Hunt (2017/$8.60), Gabriel Charles (2015/$11.40), Tom's Tribute (2014/$6.60).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Del Mar & Saratoga Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries for the big Del Mar & Saratoga meetings.

Is Saratoga Still The 'Graveyard of Favorites'?

Long ago given the moniker “The Graveyard of Favorites,” Saratoga is where Upset beat Man o’ War in 1919 and Onion knocked off Secretariat in 1973. It’s a badge worn both of hope and fear, but is it accurate? Do favorites perform any better or worse these days at Saratoga than other tracks?

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Do Barns Really Step Up for Del Mar?

The summer showcase meet at Del Mar is considered boutique for its relatively short length and high quality. For those reasons, there’s a narrative that everyone wants to find the winner’s circle at Del Mar. But are there trainers who actually find more success behind those apparent desires?

Click to read more

Fast Starts Imperative at Saratoga & Del Mar?

Given the relatively short nature of high-class racing meetings at tracks like Saratoga and Del Mar, which get underway this week, horseplayers long have long leaned on those jockeys and trainers who get off to a successful start to the meet. The thought is that momentum is important and time is short on correcting a lack of it.

Click to read more

Sharp Angles – Belmont Derby & Belmont Oaks

Belmont Derby (G1) & Belmont Oaks (G1) at Belmont Park
10F on Turf (July 10)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 41 10-furlong graded grass stakes at Belmont
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 45 contenders, 14 winners (31%, $77.10 Win Return, 185 ROI%), 17 Place (37%), 23 show (51%)

The Belmont Derby & Belmont Oaks have quickly become important fixtures for the 3-year-old grass set since they appeared on NYRA's reconfigured in 2014. The 2021 editions of these races have drawn typically competitive fields so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some extra help.

Angler reveals that the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed factor has pointed to some juicy winners of these races, especially the Derby.

Three Derby winners - Mr Speaker (2014/$23.50), Force the Pass (2015/$22.20), Catholic Boy (2016/$12.20) - are part of this sample. The great Lady Eli ($3.60) ranked first in this factor ahead of her victory in the 2015 Oaks.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Smile Sprint Invitational S.

Smile Sprint Inv S. (G3) at Gulfstream Park
6F on Dirt (July 3)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 30 6-furlong main track stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 43 contenders, 16 winners (37%, $43.20 Win Return, 150 ROI%), 26 Place (60%, $22.80 Place Return), 29 Show (67%)

The Grade 3 Smile Invitational S. is the co-feature on Saturday's annual Summit of Speed card at Gulfstream Park.

This year's edition drew an evenly-matched group of eight so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some clues. Angler tells us that 37% of the past 30 6-furlong main track graded stakes at Gulfstream Park have been won by the horse ranking first in the In the Money % handicapping factor.

Overall, this factor has generated a juicy $43.60 Win Return and a very healthy Place Return as well.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Chicago S.

Chicago S. (G3) at Arlington Park
7F on All Weather (June 26)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 20 7-furlong main track stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 26 contenders, 9 winners (34%, $17.20 Win Return, 133 ROI%), 11 Place (42%), 18 show (69%, $5.70 Show Return)

The Grade 3 Chicago S. highlights the Saturday card at Arlington Park and has drawn a field of 11 distaff sprinters.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for guidance for this dificult handicapping puzzle. Angler tells us that 34% of the past 20 7-furlong main track stakes at Arlington Park have been won by the horse ranking first in the Best Lifetime Speed handicapping factor.

Overall, this factor has generated a $17.20 Win Return and nearly 70% of the contenders have ranked filled out spot in the trifecta.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Lifetime Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angle – Poker S.

Poker S. (G3) at Belmont Park
8F on Turf (June 20)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 30 one mile graded turf stakes at Belmont Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Earnings this Distance
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 13 winners (43%, $36.90 Win Return, 161 ROI%), 16 Place (53%, 9.60 Place Return), 20 show (66%)

The Poker S. on Sunday at Belmont Park has drawn a salty bunch of turf milers, a good race to get the kind of big data handicapping perspective available only with the Betmix online handicapping database.

Angler tells us that 43% of the in the past 30 one-mile graded turf stakes at Belmont Park have been won by the horse ranking first in the Avg. Earnings this Distance handicapping factor.

There have been some nice payouts too, including at $12.20 victory by Gucci Factor in the 2019 Poker. Overall, this factor has generated a $36.90 Win Return and a plus Place Return as well.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Earnings this Distance slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Salvator Mile

Salvator Mile (G3) at Monmouth Park
8F on Dirt (June 12)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 graded dirt stakes at Monmouth Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 4 winners (44%, $16.20 Win Return, 190 ROI%), 6 Place (55%), 6 show (66%)

Saturday's Salvator Mile highlights the card at Monmouth Park and has drawn a competitive field of 10.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that one-mile graded dirt stakes at the Jersey Shore are relatively rare - just nine such contests have carded since 2012. But Angler also reveals a positive handicapping factor for this race type.

The Last Turn Time factor has pointed to 55% winners, including four recent Salvator Mile champs - Ismyluckyday ($4.40) in 2014, Res Judicata ($18) in 2016 and the past two winners Sunny Ridge ($5.20) & Pirate's Punch ($6.60).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Belmont Stakes

Belmont S. (G1) at Belmont Park
12F on Dirt (June 5)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 7 Belmont Stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 4 winners (44%, $39.10 Win Return, 317 ROI%), 4 Place (44%, $9.10 Place Return), 5 show (55%, $9.70 Show Return)

Saturday's Belmont Stakes is known as the 'Test of Champions' due to its demanding mile and one half distance.

While stamina is surely needed to the get trophy in the Belmont, the Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that early speed is also key to winning this Classic.

Angler shows that 4 of the past 7 Belmont Stakes heroes ranked first in Last E1 Pace. While the two most recent Triple Crown champions, American Pharoah ($3.50) and Justify ($3.60) are among these winners, a pair of longshots round out the sample. 2013 winner Palace Malice returned $29.60 to his backer and a year later Tonalist paid $20.40.

This handicapping factor also pointed to Joevia, third in the 2019 Belmont at 21-1.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

May Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries in May.

Bet Against Derby Alumni Next Out?

The taxing nature of the Kentucky Derby, its mile and one-quarter distance under 126 pounds and uniquely large field size, are reasons why many handicappers openly look to beat those runners in their next starts.
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Are Fewer Horses Showing Up for the Preakness?

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at how many horses have come out of the Derby to run back in the Preakness over the past 8 years.
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Better Bets as the Day Progresses?

How a racing office puts together a day’s card is most often the best way to maximize betting handle. Races with smaller fields and heavy favorites tend to draw less handle, and often are placed early in the racing day. 
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Are Early Season 2YO Races All About the Chalk?

As the juvenile campaign deepens, form fills in a bit with 2-year-olds and the handicapping process starts to balance some. But early in the year, we really only have workouts, trainer stats, pedigree and the tote to guide us. Many horseplayers are adamant that the live money shows on the babies.
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