February 21, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Turf sprints are chaotic.

Background:

The proliferation of turf sprint races to the daily schedule has exploded in the last several years, often filling cards with larger field sizes and more difficult handicapping tasks. Because of the close quarters, larger fields and often tighter finishes on turf, do these turf sprints actually turn out any less predictable – thus, more chaotic – than other races? Let’s go to the numbers.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at every turf sprint in America for the 2021 racing season. I compared those results in terms of average winning odds and favorites’ win percentage to non-turf sprints. I also normalized for field size in a separate data dive. For turf sprints, I considered turf races at 6-1/2 furlongs or less; for turf routes, those at 1 mile or longer.

Overall Findings:

Favorites won 37.9% in turf sprints.
Favorites won 36.9% in turf routes.
Favorites won 37.2% in dirt races.

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The average turf sprint winner was 5.05-1.
The average turf route winner was 5.04-1.
The average dirt winner was 5.30-1.

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In fields of 10, favorites won 32.2% in turf sprints.
In fields of 10, favorites won 35.2% in turf routes.
In fields of 10, favorites won 31.6% in dirt races.

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In fields of 10, the average turf sprint winner was 7.01-1.
In fields of 10, the average turf route winner was 5.84-1.
In fields of 10, the average dirt winner was 6.55-1.

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Overall Findings:

Overall, turf sprints had a higher win % than turf routes and dirt races by a 0.7 to 1% difference. The average winner paid nearly identical in turf sprints to turf routes, which was 0.25-0.26 lower than in dirt races last year. As the fields expanded to our ‘full’ sample of 10, turf sprints became less predictable than turf routes by 3% in terms of winning favorites and 1.17 greater in average winning odds. They drew closer to even with dirt sprints in trustworthy favorites, but paid .46 more on average than dirt runners in the 10-horse fields.

Bottom line:

Turf sprints, as a whole, aren’t more chaotic than turf routes or dirt races, rather they stack up as more reliable and predictable in their results. But in full-field situations, the turf sprints become much more in tune with their chaotic reputation. The bigger the field, the truer this myth looks.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, test these numbers specifically to the track you play to see if they shake out the same or differently.

Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds
9F on Dirt (February 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 19 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 5 winners (25%, $48.60 Win Return, 221 ROI%), 8 Place (40% $17.60 Place Return) 12 show (60% $6.40 Show Return)

The first of the ¨"Championship Series" Kentucky Derby points races is Saturday with the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Now run at a mile and one eighth after being run a sixteenth of a mile shorter for most of it´ s history, the Risen Star drew a 10-horse field of sophomores from around the country.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that Avg. Last 3 Late Pace has been a predictive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds.

This factor was particularly effective in 2020 when the Risen Star was carded at 9 furlongs for the first time and run in two divisions. Enforceable, the 4.60-1 runner up in the 1st division was top-ranked in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace as was Modernist, the $27.60 winner of the 2nd division.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

February 13, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Bridge-jumpers are best sought in smaller-pool, nighttime signals.

Background:

Bridge-jumpers in horse racing terms are those who bet large sums to show on what appears to be a sure thing. When said sure thing doesn’t deliver a top-3 finish, said handicappers are assumed to be looking for the next bridge from which to jump. Or so the legend goes. But these bridge-jumping handicappers exist and you’ll see their appearances heavily tilt show pools each week. It seems as though it happens most often on smaller, night-time signals. One of the reasons being that the state of West Virginia, home to Mountaineer and Charles Town, mandates a minimum $2.20 payout vs. $2.10 in nearly all other jurisdictions. The bridge-jumper stands to make an additional 5% return in West Virginia, doubling his or her winnings from other states. We do see high-profile bridge-jumping situations. Recall Arrogate finishing 4th of 5 at 1-20 odds in the 2017 San Diego at Del Mar, causing $22, $67 and $38 returns to show. But is it true that the smaller venues are where to find most of this action?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at every $20-plus show payoff since the start of 2017, a little more than five years. The database found just over 1,600 such returns, often multiple in the same race as all 3 runners across the board saw large payoffs. I filtered by tracks to see the top-10 most prevalent, and by class.

Overall Findings:

-Charles Town had 133 show returns of $20-plus.

-Gulfstream had 133 show returns of $20-plus.

-Parx had 94 show returns of $20-plus.

-Mountaineer had 91 show returns of $20-plus.

-Delta Downs had 83 show returns of $20-plus.

-Woodbine had 71 show returns of $20-plus.

-NYRA (Aqu-Bel-Sar) had 70 show returns of $20-plus.

-Remington Park had 65 show returns of $20-plus.

-Laurel Park had 56 show returns of $20-plus.

-Mahoning Valley had 49 show returns of $20-plus.

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Maiden claimers had 392 show returns of $20-plus.

Maiden special weight had 236 show returns of $20-plus.

Claiming races had 676 show returns of $20-plus.

Allowance races had 215 show returns of $20-plus.

Stakes races had 103 show returns of $20-plus.

Overall Findings:

Charles Town, in West Virginia, tied for the most bridge-jumper show returns along with Gulfstream Park, which runs the most live dates of any singular, daytime signal in America by far annually. Four of the top-8 most likely venues for a $20-plus show return, indeed, were smaller, nighttime signals (CT, Mnr, DeD, RP). In terms of race-class and impact on bridge-jumper results, more than 1000 of the 1600+ such returns came in either claiming or maiden claiming races. The higher the class, the fewer such examples.

Bottom line: While it’s not wildly obvious and confirmed, the numbers do indicate there’s a reasonable amount of truth to the assumption that the smaller night-time signals are the bridge-jumpers’ havens. And notably, Mountaineer has cut its racing dates in recent years, otherwise may rank higher than its current No. 4 spot overall.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, research the impact of field size on bridge-jumper returns or perhaps distance and surfaces to try and unearth where the next might be most likely to happen.

Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs
8.5F on Dirt (February 12)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 20 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Tampa Bay Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 8 winners (40%, $30.40 flat win bet return, 176 ROI%), 11 show (55%)

The Sam F. Davis Stakes has drawn another overflow field of Kentucky Derby hopefuls, presenting a big challenge for horseplayers.

We queried the Betmix Angler online handicapping database about the 8.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at Tampa and we uncovered a lucrative handicapping factor that´´ s been especially relevant to the Davis.

Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace has pointed to 40% winners of this race type overall but, more specifically to the last FOUR Sam F. Davis winners - Flameaway ($22.80) in 2018, Well Defined ($16.00) in 2019, 2020 winner Sole Volante ($13.60) and last year's hero Candy Many Rocket ($8.20).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

February 7, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Cheaper races are less reliable than larger-purse races.

Background:

You’ll often hear horseplayers turn their nose up at lower-end racing and say it’s simply too unpredictable and not trustworthy. But how do the lower-purse races stack up with their richer brethren in terms of reliability? Is there truth to the assumption that the higher the purse, the better quality and more trustworthy the likely results?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all races in 2021 nationally based on purse levels. I wanted to see the average win odds and the percentage of winning favorites to see how chaotic or trustworthy races were based on purse alone.

Races with $10,000 or less purse had an average winner of 4.68-1 odds and 39.5% winning favorites.

Races with $15,000-$25,000 purse had an average winner of 4.91 odds and 37.7% winning favorites.

Races with $30,000-$50,000 purse had an average winner of 4.81 odds and 37.0% winning favorites.

Races with $55,000-$95,000 purse had an average winner of 4.77 odds and 37.7% winning favorites.

Races with $100,000-$200,000 purse had an average winner of 4.98 odds and 37.2% winning favorites.

Overall Findings:

In 2021, the $10,000 or less purses produced the highest percentage of winning favorites and the lowest average winning odds. The results didn’t waiver a great deal across the remaining purse levels, varying only 0.7% in winning favorites and 0.21 in terms of average winning odds.

Bottom line:

The trustworthiness of a horse does not appear to be tied in any way to the purse level of the race. After all, the competition is the competition, and while a more lucrative racehorse will race in more lucrative races, he/she doesn’t hold any more distinct advantage over that similar class. If you like a horse, regardless of purse, bet them with the same confidence – this one is a myth based on the numbers.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, search your favorite track by purse levels and see if there’s any trust gained or lost across the board.

Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream Park
8.5F on Dirt (February 5)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 40 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Fast Track
Factor Stats: 47 contenders, 21 winners (44%, $59.60 flat win bet return, 163 ROI%), 38 place & show (80%, $3.50 Place Return & $11.40 Show Return)

There is no shortage of hope for owners of 3-year-old colts in early February. Consequently, there is a shortage of space in the starting gate for the Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park where 9 evenly-matched runners will square off.

A query of the Betmix Angler online handicapping databases shows that the Best Speed Fast Track factor has been key in the 8.5 furlong graded dirts stakes at Gulfstream and in the Holy Bull specifically.

Some 44% of contenders ranking first in this factor have won, producing a healthy $52.80 Win Return. Among the winners are six Holy Bull heroes in the last decade - Greatest Honour ($7.60) winner of one of the Holy Bull divisions last year preceded by Audible ($8.40), Moyhamen ($2.60), Upstart ($6.20), Cairo Prince ($6.20) and Itsmyluckyday ($11.40).

What's more is the fact that 80% of the contenders have hit the board, so it surely looks wise strongly consider this factor into your Holy Bull wagering strategy.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Fast Track slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix



February 1, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities. 

Assumption: 

Tampa Bay Downs is a ‘quirky’ main track, and horses often struggle to successfully handle the footing. 

Background: 

Ranking up there almost as high as racetracker cliches like “You can’t beat the races,” “Bet the gray on a rainy day” and “The rail is dead today,” you can’t watch 2 races at Tampa Bay Downs without hearing about how ‘quirky’ the main track is. From TV commentators to railbirds, it’s a common refrain. But is it true? 

Data Points: 

I dialed up the Betmix database for all Tampa Bay Downs main track races over the past 3 years, going back to January 31, 2019. That sample of more than 1,100 races looked at horses who came out of races at Tampa Bay Downs and those who exited races elsewhere. I studied races at all class levels and based on common odds. 

Overall Findings: 

All horses last raced at Tampa Bay Downs won 12.9% with a $0.77 ROI. 
All horses last raced away from Tampa Bay Downs won 13.2% with a $0.70 ROI. 

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All maiden horses last raced at Tampa Bay Downs won 12.0% with a $0.76 ROI. 
All maiden horses last raced away from Tampa Bay Downs won 12.9% with a $0.68 ROI. 

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All claiming horses last raced at Tampa Bay Downs won 13.4% with a $0.79 ROI. 
All claiming horses last raced away from Tampa Bay Downs won 12.3% with a $0.64 ROI. 

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All allowance horses last raced at Tampa Bay Downs won 14.1% with a $0.67 ROI. 
All allowance horses last raced away from Tampa Bay Downs won 16.4% with a $0.95 ROI. 

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All stakes horses last raced at Tampa Bay Downs won 9.5% with a $0.64 ROI. 
All stakes horses last raced away from Tampa Bay Downs won 15.2% with a $0.88 ROI. 

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All horses 5-1 or less last raced at Tampa Bay Downs won 24.6% with a $0.80 ROI. 
All horses 5-1 or less last raced away from Tampa Bay Downs won 25.4% with a $0.79 ROI. 

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All favorite horses last raced at Tampa Bay Downs won 36.4% with a $0.83 ROI. 
All favorite horses last raced away from Tampa Bay Downs won 39.9% with a $0.90 ROI. 

Overall Findings: 

Horses last raced away from Tampa Bay Downs won at a slightly higher percentage overall in all races than those exiting local races. They were a bit more successful in maiden races, more than 2.3% more successful in the allowance ranks and a whopping 5.7% at the stakes level. The only class where the locals fared best were in the claiming ranks with a 1.2% advantage. Among those horses expected to run well by the public, the out of towners won at 0.8% better among runners 5-1 or less and by a significant 3.5% higher rate with favorites. 

Bottom line: 

There’s nothing in the results that makes you consider Tampa a ‘quirky’ surface in which to avoid those from out of town. Outside of the claiming races, where the class probably is less a deciding factor than at other levels, the locals have trailed their ship-in foes. This one is a total myth, a falsity that Tampa is ‘quirky’ and unpredictable. 

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which trainers have done best bringing horses into Tampa? 

Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1)
9F on Turf (January 29)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 23 8-furlong turf graded stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 24 contenders, 7 winners (29%) $87.40 Win Return, (282 ROI%), 8 Place (33%) $4.50 Place Return, 12 Show (50%)

The Pegasus World Cup card at Gulfstream Park. has very quickly become the highlight of winter racing for many horseplayers in North America. The card took another leap in 2019 when the Pegasus Turf was added and this year´ s fourth edition of the race (formerly named Gulfstream Park Turf H.) has drawn a predictably deep and contentious field.

Deep and contentious fields are exactly what the Betmix Angler online handicapping database was built for. A scan of the database has revealed that the Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace has been predictive and profitable for big data handicappers. Angler tells us that the hottest trainers have had and edge in these 6-furlong non-graded stakes at Oaklawn.

Nearly 30% of the contenders ranking first in this factor have had their pictures taken while generating a whopping $87.40 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

American Beauty S. at Oaklawn Park
8F on Dirt (January 22)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 121 6-furlong non-graded stakes at Oaklawn
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 133 contenders, 31 winners (23%) $48.00 Win Return, (118 ROI%), 53 Place (39%), 66 Show (49%)

Saturday´ s Card at Oaklawn Park is highlighted by the $150,000 American Beauty Stakes for distaff sprinters and it´ s drawn a deep and competitive field. These kind of fields are typical in Hot Springs, Arkansas these days.

Deep and competitive fields can be a boon to horseplayers who use the Betmix Angler online handicapping database. Indeed, Angler tells us that the hottest trainers have had and edge in these 6-furlong non-graded stakes at Oaklawn.

The horse ranking first in the Trainer This Year handicapping factor has scored in 23% of these contests while generating a juicy $48 Win Return

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer The Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

January 17, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

January and February are when the rising star 3-year-olds make their stakes presence known.

Background:

As the road to the Triple Crown picks up passengers early in the year, horseplayers are often looking for the next big thing to take on the known stakes players. But should you, as bettors, be looking more for the proven commodities at this point or the rising stars?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all 3-year-old stakes in January and February over the past 3-plus years. I sorted each starter by the class of race each horse exited last time out and how they fared in stakes races.

Overall Findings:

January & February 3-year-old stakes horses exiting maiden claiming races won 4.8% with a $1.16 ROI for every $1 bet.

January & February 3-year-old stakes horses exiting maiden special weight races won 15.8% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

January & February 3-year-old stakes horses exiting claiming races won 5.9% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

January & February 3-year-old stakes horses exiting allowance races won 10.6% with a $0.58 ROI for every $1 bet.

January & February 3-year-old stakes horses exiting listed stakes races won 13.2% with a $0.64 ROI for every $1 bet.

January & February 3-year-old stakes horses exiting graded stakes races won 17.9% with a $1.01 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings:

Graded stakes alumni had the best win percentage by more than 2 points and also the second-best ROI for every $1 bet (note the maiden claiming ROI was principally one $153 upsetter skewing the results). The maiden special weight runners were second-most likely winners , more than 2.5 points higher than listed stakes alumni. But the ROI for the maiden special weight risers was far short of the graded stakes types.

Bottom line:

Known commodities from the graded stakes ranks are still the best way to go this time of year in the 3-year-old stakes ranks. While the maiden special weight class risers win a solid share, their ROI indicates they’re over-valued by the betting public at this point on the calendar.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which trainers do best in the 3-year-old stakes via various class levels of development?