The Race Profile Statistics Box
In every single race view in Betmix (Today's Races, Historical Races, MixMaker, Free Race of the Day) you will see the Race Profile statistics on the main screen just below the BetPad. All of the information in the Race Profile is based on similar runnings of the same race type at the track you are looking at. In the above example the data shown is for the last 22, 8.5F Turf Allowance races atTampa Bay.You will see information about the winning posts for that race type, average payouts for winners, the most accurate factors for Win, Place, Show and Accuracy and the ability to sort those by Category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, etc). You can click the Race Profile Report button and that will launch a report that grabs those last 22 races for you (no need to build it in Create My Report). Let's look at each feature in more detail:
Winning Posts
This graphic will display the winning posts for this race type and allow you to determine if there is any bias. When looking at certain race types you may decide that the rail is the best place to be, or that a horse has the best chance of winning from the middle or outside. Mousing over any column will show you the number of winners for that particular post. On the main display you will also see the Program number for each horse and their actual post if it differs from the program number.
Winning Payout
The winning payout graphic will show you how often favorites or longshots win this race type. It is broken down into four categories: $2.10-$6.00, $6.01 -$10.00, $10.01 - $20.00 and $20.01+. This data will let you know if this is a race type that is predictable by the public or not. Longshot players can use this screen to find races that tend to produce longshot winners and focus their handicapping on finding a long horse with a big chance. In this example race type you can see that although the race is typically won by favorites, there is also a large number of winners that pay between $10.00 and $20.00.
Races
The Races tab will show you a list of all the similar races that were used to compile the race profile statistics. You can sort by date or payout. You can click on any of those races and open them up in MixMaker.
Most Important Factors
Rank - Each factor is ranked from best (1) to worst (45). When handicapping or creating a mix use the best factors from each group to find the most likely winner and contenders in the race you are handicapping.
Factor - This name of each handicapping factor.
Top 4 Ranked - This shows you the top 4 horses within that category. In the example above, the best factor for predicting this race type is Last Late Pace, and the top for horses in that factor are 10,8,5,1.
Win % - This tells you the percentage of time that the horse ranked on top for that factor ended up winning the race. In the above example we are looking at a sample of 40 races, and the horse that ranked best for the factor TRAINER CURRENT MEET won 13 of 40 races (33%)
Place % - This tells you the percentage of times the top ranked horse ran at least 2nd.
Show % - This tells you the percentage of times the top ranked horse ran at least 3rd.
Accuracy - This number tells you how accurate the factor was. A perfect score in accuracy would be 100 and that would mean that in every race, that factor had correctly predicted the top 4 finishers in order. The more accurate a factor is (higher accuracy number) the more times you are likely to find the exacta, trifecta and superfecta in the top 4 horses. Factors with high accuracy scores should be used if you are making exotic bets. Factors with High Win%, High Accuracy and positive ROI are extremely important.
Win ROI - This shows you what you would have won or lost if you bet every top ranked horse for a factor to win. In the example above, if you would have bet $2 to win on every horse ranked highest for Trainer Current Meet you would have made a profit of $26.00. Many times you will see that a factor with a very high positive ROI has a low win %. This will tell you that the factor has produced some longshot winners. Over a 40 races, it may have only predicted 15% winners, but each of them may have been high odds horses that resulted in big win payouts. Conversely, low ROI and High Win % would indicate a lot of short priced winners (favorites).
Place ROI - This shows you what you would have won or lost if you bet every top ranked horse for a factor to place.
Show ROI - This shows you what you would have won or lost if you bet every top ranked horse for a factor to show.
TOP4 % - This tells you the percentage of times that a horse ranked within the to 4 in that factor wins the race. In the example above you can see that for the factor Jockey Current Meet the Top 4 % is 82. This means that in the group of similar races we are looking at, 82% of the time one of the top 4 horses in Jockey Current Meet will win this race type. This is very useful information for betting Pick 3's, Pick 4's etc.
Advantage - this is the last column (abbreviated as ADV). This shows you the point difference between the top ranked horse and the 2nd ranked horse for that factor. If the ADV is 0.0 that means that there is a tie and the top 2 horses have the same score for that factor. Advantage is very useful to spot dominant horses. Sometimes you will see and advantage of 100, which means that the top ranked horse for that factor may be the only horse in the race with data. Maybe only one horse has started on turf, so he will have advantages of 100 in Turf Speed and Turf Earnings. That may not be a useful advantage in a dirt race. However, pay very close attention to horses that have a big advantage in pace factors. Especially if those factors also have high win, ROI and accuracy scores. Horses that are dominant within predictive factors should never be ignored.Watch A
Tutorial Video for more information!
