Who will win the Kentucky Derby?

Who will win the Kentucky Derby? That is the question that all serious and casual horse racing fans will be asking over the next few weeks. The Kentucky Derby is the most watched horse race in the world, and the payoffs can be life changing.

There are many reasons why picking a Derby winner is so difficult. To start with, there are usually 20 horses in the race. Getting a trouble free trip in a race with that many horses is never guaranteed. These young 3 year old colts will be running 1 1/4 miles, a distance they have never run before and will probably never run again. The atmosphere at Churchill Downs is something that will be completely new to the horses. How will they react to over 100,000 screaming fans? Betmix can help solve some of the puzzle.

Did Betmix Pick the Kentucky Derby Winner? The 2014 Kentucky Derby was won by California Chrome, he was the overwhelming favorite so it was pretty easy to find a reason to put him on top of your tickets.  The real trick was coming up with Commanding Curve (38:1) in second, and Danza (9:1) in third.  The correct mix to use at Betmix was heavy on Best Lifetime Speed, Late Pace, Turn Time and Pedigree.  To win the Kentucky Derby a horse needs to have a history of running fast and closing well.  Having the pedigree to run long is also important.

Using a Mix of Best Lifetime Speed (84), Avg last 3 Late Pace (60), Avg last 3 Turn Time (49), Last Turn Time (54) Distance Pedigree Rating (22) and Trainer Current Year (1)
Kentucky Derby Mix

You would have had these rankings, and hit the Kentucky Derby Trifecta:
2014 Kentucky Derby Betmix Rankings

Kentucky Derby Pedigree (Who has the best KY Derby pedigree?)
Can a horse get the distance? Is the horse bred to be able to run the 10 furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby? Using the Distance Pedigree Rating factor you can determine which horses have the bloodlines that may benefit them when running this distance. The data behind the pedigree ratings is based on an analysis of hundreds of thousands of starts in North America, each start of all offspring from the Sire, Dam, and Damsire are evaluated and measured for their individual racing aptitudes and preferences. Chances are that if the horse in questions had parents or siblings that were able to handle the distance, they will be able able to as well.

Pace in the Kentucky Derby (Who are the late/early runners in the Ky Derby?)
Betmix can't predict what kind of trip each horse may get in the Kentucky Derby, but it can give you insight into the pace scenario. Pace ratings tell you how fast a horse ran up to a specific point in the race. The higher the number, the faster the horse ran. Looking at the pace factors in Betmix you can determine who will be running fast early, in the middle, or late. In a typical race if the majority of the field runs early then you would give the advantage to a horse who is the lone closer. The same would be true of a lone speed horse in a race full of closers. With 20 horses in the Derby there is probably not going to be a pace advantage for any one horse, but you can try and map the race out to see where a horse will be positioned. Using that in conjunction with the post positions (usually drawn the Wednesday before the race) you can start to map out how the race may unfold.

How important is speed in the Kentucky Derby
(Who is the fastest KY Derby horse?)
Speed is important in any race, and the Derby is no exception. We can look at speed in several ways in Betmix. You can look at the fastest lifetime number, the fastest number on dirt, the fastest number at this track (Churchill Downs), the average of the last 3 races, etc. Any successful Derby mix will use speed factors heavily.

The Trainer and Jockey factor in the Kentucky Derby
(Who are the best Jockeys and Trainers in the KY Derby?)
In Betmix you can evaluate the trainer and jockey based on their statistics for the current meet and for the current year. In looking at the Derby, the stats for the year are going to be much more important than for the meet. This is because the Chuurchill meet will have only been running for about 1 week prior to the Derby and because the Derby contenders will be shipping in from all over the country. The best trainers and jockeys in the world will be involved with the Derby horses, and you will want to look at how they compare for the year to get a true picture of who has the best.

There are 45 handicapping factors that you can use in Betmix and while some of them may not be relevant to the Kentucky Derby, you can create a very accurate handicapping method that will give you a big advantage when trying to pick a Kentucky Derby winner.