Angler Odds vs. Performance Analysis

We've added some very informative new stats to Angler Analysis in BirdDog.

These new stats are all about letting you know how often horses, trainers, jockeys, etc. do what they are supposed to do. You need to know if the horse you are betting on has a history of doing what its supposed to do or not. When a horse does (or doesn't do) what is expected that can be good, bad or ugly.

If you bet a favorite to win or use it in your trifecta and it runs 5th that is a real ugly outcome.

However, if you bet against that favorite and it runs off the board that is a real good thing. The new stats described below will help you determine if your horse has a history of doing what you need it to do today. Sometimes you want them to win, other times you want them to lose... What's good for me can be bad for you - it all depends on the bets we made.

To make money consistently you need to make value bets - bet on horses that have a better chance to win than the public thinks. That means finding horses, trainers, owners, jockeys, etc. that overperform and not betting on those that are likely to underperform.

The Angler Analysis tool gives you a lot of information about the horses, trainers, jockeys, sires, etc. in a race.

Below is a description of each of the columns and what they mean, the 4 new columns (11,12,13,14) are VERY informative.

RACES - The number of races for the horse, trainer, etc. used in the sample.
WIN $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to win in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
Place $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to place in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
Show $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to show in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
WIN % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) win the race.
Place % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) run at least second.
WIN % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) ruin at least 3rd.
The average finish position.
The average off odds.
The average odds for the horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) when they win

The new data appears in columns 11,12,13 & 14. This info will give you a good indication of how often the horse (or trainer, jockey, owner, etc) does what it is supposed to do. This information is based on Angler data that looks at the "off odds" for each horse and how those odds are ranked.

In every race the horse that has the lowest odds is the favorite and that horse is ranked 1st in off odds. The longest shot in the race is ranked last. A horse that goes off as the 1:9 favorite in a race is ranked 1st in off odds, a horse that goes off as the 2:1 favorite in another race is also ranked 1st in off odds. The actual odds don't matter here, just the rank - lowest odds are ranked 1st, horses with highest odds are ranked last.

In a perfect world the horse that is ranked 1st (lowest odds) should run 1st, and a horse that is ranked 4th (4th choice in odds) should run 4th. We all know that rarely happens, and these stats are designed to help you profit from that.

11 - HTB as Favorite.
Does the horse hit the board when its supposed to? If the horse is ranked 1, 2 or 3 in off odds (one of the top 3 betting choices) it should run 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Looking at all of the races in the sample this shows you what % of the time the horse performs well when expected to.

12 - HTB not Favorite. Does the horse hit the board when its NOT supposed to? If the horse is ranked 4th or worse in off odds (not one of the top 3 betting choices) and it ends up running 1, 2 or 3 then it is running better than expected. Horses, trainers, jockeys, etc that have a high number in this column are potential longshots. They have been underestimated in the past by the betting public and have hit the board when they were not expected to.

13 - OTB as Favorite. Shows you when the horse does NOT hit the board when its supposed to. If the horse is ranked among the top 3 betting choices and FAILS to run 1st, 2nd or 3rd you will see that percentage in this column. If a horse has a very high percentage in this column it is a "money burner".

14 - OTB. This shows you how often the horse does not hit the board and was not expected to hit the board (kind of a sad statistic). The horse is not expected to do well and it doesn't. If a horse has a big number here it lets you know that the horse is usually not a favorite and runs poorly.

This is a fantastic tool for spotting potential overlays and underlays, and also will help you decide when to pull the trigger on a potential longshot (horse often hits the board when its not expected to) or toss a vulnerable favorite (horse has shown that it will fail to HTB when it should).

This information is available in each table in Angler Analysis and really helps you to see which horses, jockeys, owners, trainers can do well when they should - and more importantly - do well when they are not supposed to.

Give Angler Analysis a try now: BirdDog Free Race

The full version of Angler should be ready early next week (knock on wood). If you are currently a subscriber to Betmix (monthly or yearly) then you will have access to Angler and Angler Analysis as part of your current subscription.

Starting August 1st, Angler and Angler Analysis will be part of the Betmix Pro subscription plan and will be offered at a higher subscription rate, so if you are currently not subscribed you might want to jump in now...