August 29, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Look for horses cutting back in distance over Kentucky Downs’ demanding course.

Background:

Kentucky Downs opens Thursday with the first of 7 racecards for 2022. The short and unique meeting is held exclusively over turf footing and the course is undulating and challenging. Many handicappers seek horses who have run farther than entered today in their recent efforts.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at the past 5 years at Kentucky Downs and races at the two most heavily contested distances to see if the winners were horses adding distance, staying the same or, indeed, cutting back from farther trips. More than 250 races are in the database during that timeframe.

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At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at a shorter distance last time owned a 10.2% win rate. They had a $1.01 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at the same distance last time owned a 7.8% win rate. They had a $0.61 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at a longer distance last time owned a 8.2% win rate. They had a $0.67 ROI for every $1 bet.

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At 1 mile, horses who raced at a shorter distance last time owned a 6.3% win rate. They had a $0.64 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile, horses who raced at the same distance last time owned a 11.3% win rate. They had a $0.98 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile, horses who raced at a longer distance last time owned a 11.7% win rate. They had a $0.71 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

The same distance and cut-back horses had decidedly more success at the mile trip, but in the 6-1/2 furlong sprint ranks, the stretch-out horses defied the horseplayer assumption and horses adding distance were most successful and most profitable. If you’re betting cut-back horses at Kentucky Downs, consider it more effective in the longer races.

Additional details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which class levels these cut-back and stretch-out horses performed best in.

Travers S. (G1)
10F on dirt at Saratoga (August 27)
Races Analyzed: Last 21 Saratoga 10F dirt G1 Stakes at Saratoga
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 28 contenders, 11 winners (39%), $68.20 win bet return, 221 ROI%, & 16 place/show (58%), $15.70 place return.

Saturday´´ s Travers Stakes features a showdown for 3-year-old male honors and offers horseplayers a challenging handicapping puzzle.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for clues and found that the Win % handicapping factor has shown good returns in the 10-furlong dirt Grade 1s at Saratoga. It´´´ s pointed to 39% winners of this racetype, and while the winningest horses tend to be well-bet, no one will complain about a $68.20 Win Return along with a double digit Place Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

August 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:
Having a prep over the track is advantageous in the Travers.

Background:

Saturday’s Midsummer Derby is upon us, and horses converging for the Travers will have had preps across the country and at Saratoga. Is there a local edge for those coming out of races like the Jim Dandy, Curlin or Spa allowances?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look the last 9 Travers editions held in the traditional timeslot, eliminating the 2020 COVID year when it was earlier in the meet and prior to the Kentucky Derby. This produced 101 starters, of which I evaluated the win, place and show percentages of those who prepped locally and those that did not, as well as the $1 ROI on such bets.

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Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 3-for-55 to win (5.45%) with a $0.59 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 7-for-55 to place (12.73%) with a $0.58 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 10-for-55 to show (18.18%) with a $0.42 ROI.

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Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 6-for-46 to win (13.04%) with a $1.13 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 11-for-46 to place (23.91%) with a $0.94 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 17-for-46 to show (36.96%) with a $0.97 ROI.

Bottom line:

It’s the horse who DID NOT prep at Saratoga that have had a strong advantage in the Travers since 2013. Despite fewer starters, they produced twice the winners and nearly double up the successful percentage at all levels of finishing in the money. The ROI is significantly higher backing the ship-ins as well. It’s categorically false in recent years to apply any advantage in the Travers to those who last prepped there.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which tracks have had the most success as prep locales for the Travers and more.

Queen´ s Plate
10F on All Weather (August 21)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 25 Woodbine main track stakes at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 8 winners (27%, $61.70 Win Return, 204 ROI%), 15 Show (51%)

Woodbine is running the Queen´ s Plate in it´ s new August slot after a long run on Dominion Day weekend. What hasn´ t changed is the historic race drawing a large and competitive field.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world´ s most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights on the 11-horse field and learned that the Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace handicapping factor has been profitable in this race type.

The 8 winners pointed to by this factor have produced a very nice $61.70 Win Return, including a double-digit Queen´ s Plate winner in Midnight Aria ($35.20).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

August 15, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Woodbine’s Tapeta course plays more favorably to turf horses than dirt.

Background:

With the Queen’s Plate on deck Sunday at Woodbine, many eyes will be on the greater Toronto’s ovals that typically don’t play local races. Does the old theory that synthetic tracks favor turf courses carry over to Woodbine’s Tapeta?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all Woodbine main track races in 2021 and so far in 2022. The more than 1,000 races provide large sample size. I separated all starters based on their most recent start, whether it was on dirt, turf or synthetic and compared win percentages and $1 ROI.

Horses who last raced on traditional dirt won 12.0% on Woodbine’s Tapeta with an ROI of $0.62.
Horses who last raced on turf won 12.6% on Woodbine’s Tapeta with an ROI of $0.76.
Horses who last raced on synthetic surfaces won 11.8% on Woodbine’s Tapeta with an ROI of $0.80.

Bottom line:

The win percentages varied only 0.8% no matter the last surface raced upon. There appears to be no discernible edge in that regard. The dirt-prepped horses, however, provided a much lower ROI, some $.14 less per dollar compared to turf-prepped horses and $.18 less than those last raced on synthetic. This may suggest that even after 15+ years of synthetic racing in North America en masse, the public still doesn’t do a good job identifying which dirt horses will handle the synthetic, and which will not. The similar win rates, but much lower ROI, give me the impression that the dirt-to-synthetic myth remains more in the horseplayer than the horses.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which class levels these surface changes have the most impact. Or, look at other synthetic venues like Turfway, Presque Isle, Golden Gate to see if it plays out similarly.

Yellow Ribbon S. (G2)
8.5F on Turf (August 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 27 Del Mar graded turf stakes at 8.5F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Race Classes
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 8 winners (27%, $60.40 Win Return, 204 ROI%), 15 Show (51%)

Saturday´ s Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar drew a field of 7 middle distance turf distaffers set to scramble for the lion´ s share of the $250,000 purse.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world´ s most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights and learned that the Avg. Last 3 Race Classes handicapping factor has been profitable in this race type.

The 8 winners pointed to by this factor has produced a very nice $60.40 Win Return, including a pair of Yellow Ribbon winners since 2018 in Cambodia ($5.40) and Beau Recall ($6.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Race Classes slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

August 8, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s horses struggle outside of Florida.

Background:

After Skippylongstocking won Saturday’s $500,000 West Virginia Derby, it silenced a bit of the chatter that trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s horses simply aren’t as good away from Gulfstream Park. The high-percentage trainer has risen in profile over recent years with Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup-type performers, extending beyond a regional operation. But is the moniker true that he’s far superior at Gulfstream than the road?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database over the past 10 years going back to summer 2012 with Saffie Joseph’s starters. More than 3,000 starters appear in the search with just over 2,600 of them coming at Gulfstream Park (or Gulfstream Park West).

Overall Win Percentage: 21.8% (ROI $0.84)

Gulfstream Park Win Percentage: 23.0% (ROI $0.87)

Non-Gulfstream Park Win Percentage: 14.9% (ROI $0.66)

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Gulfstream Park Favorites Win Percentage: 40.1%

Non-Gulfstream Park Favorites Win Percentage: 34.4%

Bottom line:

Saffie Joseph Jr’s win percentage is 8.1% higher over the past decade at Gulfstream Park than on the road. There’s no doubt credence to his home success far outweighing his road trips. The roadies are in interesting mixed back with a fantastic 19-72 at Belmont and Aqueduct (26%), but a woeful 5-71 (7%) at Saratoga when under the national spotlight. He holds out at 16% with Tampa Bay shippers across the state of Florida, but when you remove those, his overall shippers outside Gulfstream drop to 14.5%. When you look at the ROI, it’s obvious that the Joseph runners are being overbet and underperforming on the road at a return $0.21 less than at Gulfstream. Joseph favorites win 5.7% higher at Gulfstream than on the road as well. It’s impossible to argue against his performance home and away.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check the race classes of the Joseph shippers and see where they may or may not be as successful when on the road.

Saratoga Derby Inv. (G1)
9.5F on Turf (August 6)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 26 Saratoga turf stakes at 9-10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer 1-Year Win %
Factor Stats: 47 contenders, 11 winners (23.4%, $26.30 Win Return, 128 ROI%), 28 Place/Show (59%, $7.50 Place Return, $4.40 Show Return)

Saturday's Saratoga Derby Invitational continues the New York Turf Triple for sophomore males and has drawn a compelling field of 10.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world´ s most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights and learned that the Trainer 1-Year Win % handicapping factor has been profitable in this race type.

The 11 winners this factor has pointed to include the winner of last year´ s Derby, 21-1 State of Rest.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer 1-Year Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

August 2, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horseplayers catch on at boutique meetings Saratoga and Del Mar after the first few weeks.

Background:

Many horseplayers will note that the start of a big meet like Saratoga or Del Mar – or anywhere for that matter – is a time to feel things out. That they’ll wait for later in the meet to settle in. But do the results of the races bear that out as a real strategy?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to separate the July and August/September results at both Saratoga and Del Mar over the past 5 years.

Saratoga average July winners were 5.18-1 odds.
Saratoga average August/September winners were 4.87-1 odds.
Saratoga percentage of winning July favorites was 34.3%.
Saratoga percentage of winning August/September favorites was 35.0%.

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Del Mar average July winners were 5.53-1 odds.
Del Mar average August/September winners were 5.37-1 odds.
Del Mar percentage of winning July favorites was 34.10%.
Del Mar percentage of winning August/September favorites was 33.8%.

Bottom line:

The average winner in August/September dropped by .31 odds at Saratoga and .16 odds at Del Mar compared to July early season winners. Saratoga’s percentage of winning favorites grew .7% later in the meet, while Del Mar’s dropped .3%. These results mostly would suggest that the meets get a bit easier to handicap at they proceed deeper into the season, certainly an easy argument to support at Saratoga than Del Mar.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check each track by race condition to see which types of races have changed the most in terms of payoffs and favorites. Also, do similar studies for the tracks you follow in terms of early and late seasons.

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week HorsePlayer.com´s Jeremy Plonk uses the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Below are some recent Angler deep dives that apply to the important Saratoga and Del Mar meetings.

Saratoga Assumption

Turf sprints make the Saratoga meet even tougher handicapping. (July 25). Click for full post.

Del Mar Assumption

Del Mar Assumption: The Ship-and-Win program horses for Del Mar’s summer meet are strong bets who are sent west with great intent. Click for full post.

Saratoga Assumption

Saratoga Assumption: There are no secrets with Saratoga first-time starters. Click for full post.

Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.