July 25, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Turf sprints make the Saratoga meet even tougher handicapping.

Background:

Horsesplayers often lament the chaotic nature of turf sprints in their handicapping, especially at Saratoga, where they are an increasingly more prevalent part of the daily schedule. While turf sprints often have larger field sizes, do they actually create a significantly more difficult piece of the handicapping puzzle?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all race types at Saratoga since the start of 2018 meet. Four groupings: turf sprints, turf routes, dirt sprints, dirt routes were examined for both average win odds and reliability of favorites in terms of win percentage. Here’s what we found:

Turf sprints have an average win odds of 5.2-1.
Dirt sprints have an average win odds of 4.9-1.
Turf routes have an average win odds of 5.0-1.
Dirt routes have an average win odds of 3.7-1.

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Turf sprints have a favorite’s win percentage of 32.1%.
Dirt sprints have a favorite’s win percentage of 36.4%.
Turf routes have a favorite’s win percentage of 32.7%.
Dirt routes have a favorite’s win percentage of 36.7%.

Bottom line:

Turf sprints do produce the longest-priced winners at 5.2-1 and are 0.3 longer than turf routes, 0.4 longer than dirt sprints and a significant 1.5 longer than dirt routes. Turf sprints also have the shortest win percentage among favorites at 32.1%, a slight 0.6% less than turf routes, but significantly shorter than dirt sprints by 4.3% and dirt routes by 4.6%. By the numbers, the turf sprints do make handicapping more difficult for players, but not to much degree more than turf routes. It’s simply the turf races are tougher to evaluate than the dirt races, particularly in the route ranks.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, evaluate the turf sprints when equalizing field sizes, and also look at turf sprints vs. other races at various race classes.

Haskell S. (G1)
9F on Dirt (July 21)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 editions of the Haskell Inv.
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 6 winners (42%, $19.40 Win Return, 169 ROI%), 7 Place/show (50%, $4.70 Place Return)

Saturday´ s Haskell Stakes has drawn a fascinating field of 8 sophomores including the winners of the Santa Anita, Arkansas and Florida Derbies. And neither may be the favorite with the unbeaten one-turn sensation Jack Christopher also in the starting gate.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world´ s most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights and learned that the Best Lifetime Speed handicapping factor has pointed to 42% winners of this race while generating a $19.40 Win Return. The sample includes the double-digit winners Girvin ($20.40) and Bayern ($11.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Lifetime Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

July 18, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The Ship-and-Win program horses for Del Mar’s summer meet are strong bets who are sent west with great intent.

Background:

For more than a decade, Del Mar has added purse incentives to attract horses from outside California for its summer meeting. The theory is to bolster field quantity and quality. But have said ‘shippers’ added to the product or merely worked some loopholes? While the program has good intentions, I wanted to find out how it's impacting the horseplayers.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at the past five summer meets at Del Mar, 2017-2021. I wanted to see how horses who last raced outside of California have fared, how well they were regarded in the betting and who was training these horses – west coasters or actual non-California barns. More than 650 horses show up in the database at Del Mar during that time, exiting races outside California, 180+ of them in stakes races. While there are some eligibility requirements to the complete Ship & Win program, this short dive gives a good look at the out of town impact.

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Ship-and-Win horses have average odds of 14.33-1 vs. 16.04-1 for all starters.

Ship-and-Win horses have a 13.6% win rate and 25.9% exacta rate vs. 11.9% and 23.8% for all starters.

Ship-and-Win horses have a $0.59 ROI vs. $0.77 for all starters.

Notable Non-California trainers to have 10+ Ship-and-Win horses: 6 (Mark Casse, Victoria Olivier, Mike Maker, Dallas Keen, Tom Proctor, Molly Pearson).

Bottom line:

The overwhelming majority of starters from non-California races come from California-based trainers – Bob Hess, Peter Miller, Phil D’Amato and Doug O’Neill all with 30+. None of the non-California trainers with 10+ starters has topped 18 starters in the 5-year study, so that means they’re bringing 3 or 4 horses per summer max from any barn. The Ship-and-Win horses have as slightly better win and exacta rate by 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively, but their odds are shorter and their ROI significantly less by $0.18. They do not provide a better value betting opportunity to the horseplayer evaluating them vs. the locals.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, look at each class of race and turf vs. dirt for these Del Mar ship-ins.

Sanford S. (G3)
6F on Dirt (July 16)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 16 6-furlong graded dirt stakes for 2-year-olds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey Current Year
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 6 winners (29%, $28.60 Win Return, 147 ROI%), 12 Place/show (40%, $14.40 Place Return)

Here we go! The first Saturday of the Saratoga meeting features a pair of graded stakes, including the historic Sanford for juvenile colts. A full dozen are set to break from the starting gate so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some insights.

The world´ s most powerful online handicapping database tells us that the Jockey This Year handicapping factor has pointed to 20% winners of this racetype while generating a $28.60 Win Return and a $14.40 Place Return

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey This Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

July 11, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

There are no secrets with Saratoga first-time starters.

Background:

Thursday opens the Saratoga racing season, and it’s known for outstanding maidens that often become tomorrow’s stars. With the intense focus of the Spa and close-knit racing community there, it’s often said that word spreads on a good one. Is it any more true than anywhere else? Let’s check the numbers.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all first-time starters at Saratoga over the past 5 years – delivering more than 2,000 debut runners. I studied all Saratoga first-time starters in terms of average win payoff, win percentage and ROI. I compared those numbers with NYRA circuit sister tracks Aqueduct and Belmont, as well as summer counterpart Del Mar and the national averages.

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Saratoga first-time starters won at average offs of 6.0-1.

National first-time starters won at average offs of 6.9-1.
Aqueduct first-time starters won at average offs of 8.2-1.
Belmont first-time starters won at average offs of 7.4-1.
Del Mar first-time starters won at average offs of 6.2-1.

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Saratoga favorited first-time starters won 34.6% with a $0.87 ROI for every $1 bet.

National favorited first-time starters won 33.7% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.
Aqueduct favorited first-time starters won 31.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Belmont favorited first-time starters won 35.2% with a $0.84 ROI for every $1 bet.
Del Mar favorited first-time starters won 47.0% with a $1.10 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

First-time starters who won were nearly a full point lower on the tote than the national average, more than 2 points lower than those at Aqueduct and 1.2 points lower than Belmont – easily the most ‘identified’ on the NYRA circuit. They also were slightly lower in returns than rookie winners at Del Mar by .2 points. Saratoga’s favorites among the debut runners won slightly more often than the national average by .9%. They easily outperformed those from Aqueduct, but actually came home 3.4% less often than Belmont debut favorites and a whopping 15.2% less often than their Del Mar brethren. The average odds lean toward Saratoga gives an impression that there are fewer big surprises among first-time starters than the comparable tracks and national average; but the performance of favorites suggests that the betting public has no decided advantage identifying a live rookie at Saratoga more so than anywhere else.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, break these numbers down for maiden special or maiden claiming races, dirt vs. turf, and see if any indicators may exist in more specialized races.

Indiana Derby & Oaks at Horseshoe Indianapolis
8.5F on Dirt (July 9)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 Horseshoe Indy graded dirt stakes at 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 7 winners (38%, $27.20 Win Return, 175 ROI%), 10 Place (55%, $13.40 Place Return), 13 Show (72%, $6.00 Show Return)

The rebranded Horseshoe Indianapolis (formerly Indiana Grand) will host its biggest card of the season on Saturday. Horseplayers will be challenged by a total of 8 stakes races, including the Indiana Derby and Indiana Oaks, going a mile and one sixteenth on the main track.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Last E2 Pace handicapping factor has pointed 38% winners in the raced type while generating a healthy $27.20 Win Return. Among the winners are a pair of Derby winners and 5 Oaks heroines.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Delaware Oaks (G3) at Delaware Park
8.5F on Dirt (July 2)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 Delaware Park graded dirt stakes at 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Race Class
Factor Stats: 28 contenders, 7 winners (25%, $80.40 Win Return, 243 ROI%), 11 Place (39%), 13 Show (46%, $54.30 Show Return)

We head to historic Delaware Park for this week's Sharp Angles dive into the Betmix Angler online handicapping database. Saturday's feature is the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks that has brought together a competitive field of eight sophomore fillies.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Last Race Class handicapping factor has pointed 25% winners in the 8.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at the Stanton, Delaware oval. This group includes Calamity Kate who exited the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes to capture the Del Oaks at a whopping $110.80 win mutuel.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Race Class slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

DO THE BIG BELMONT BARNS LOOK AHEAD TO SARATOGA?

Assumption:

The pocket between the Belmont Stakes and the start of Saratoga is a place where the top barns reload for the summer.

Read more

CREDENCE TO 7-FURLONG SPECIALISTS?

Assumption:

Seven furlongs is a specialist’s distance.

Read more

June 27, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Seven furlongs is a specialist’s distance.

Background:

With Saturday’s Princess Rooney Stakes at Gulfstream one of the calendar’s most important 7-furlong sprints annually, the old racetrack axiom that 7-furlong races are for specialists comes to mind. The distance is demanding on the fleet dashers, but quicker than most routers can handle. Let’s see if the numbers suggest.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all 7 furlong dirt races run this year in the US. I wanted to see how horses performed exiting races shorter, longer and at the same trip. A total of 916 races were surveyed. I also looked at horses in those 3 scenarios in terms of how often each category won over 7 furlongs.
I also extended that out to look at the last 10,000 such starters at 7 furlongs to see if 2022 was representative, long-term.

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This year so far:

7-furlong entrants who last raced shorter than 7 furlongs won 13.5% with a $0.70 ROI for every $1 bet.
7-furlong entrants who last raced longer than 7 furlongs won 12.4% with a $0.68 ROI for every $1 bet.
7-furlong entrants who last raced 7 furlongs won 15.7% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Over the past 10,000 starters at 7 furlongs:

7-furlong entrants who last raced shorter than 7 furlongs won 12.2% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
7-furlong entrants who last raced longer than 7 furlongs won 11.4% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.
7-furlong entrants who last raced 7 furlongs won 14.0% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

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This year so far:

Horses exiting races shorter than 7 furlongs won 462 of the 916 races at 7-furlongs (50.4%).
Horses exiting races exactly at 7 furlongs won 192 of the 916 races at 7-furlongs (21.0%).
Horses exiting races shorter than 7 furlongs won 239 of the 916 races at 7-furlongs (26.0%).

**first-time starters accounted for the other 23 victories**

Bottom line:
Both current and long-term, horses exiting 7-furlong races won 7-furlong races at a higher strike rate (+2.2% short-term, +1.8% long-term) than those changing distances. Horses remaining at 7 furlongs also had the higher ROI (+$0.10 short-term, +$0.05 long-term). Those horses remaining at the same distance are fewer in number and therefore accounted for the least amount of total victories as horses stretching out in distance easily won the most races. But there’s no doubt when you find a horse for 7 furlongs exiting a 7-furlong race, the specialist distance assumption rings true by a decent margin. And this narrow study does not even account for past success at the 7-furlong trip.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, consider which tracks have the most impact in terms of 7-furlong specialists.

Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown
9F on Dirt (June 25)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 5 runnings of the Ohio Derby
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 5 contenders, 3 winners (60%, $32.20 Win Return, 422 ROI%), 4 Place/Show (80%, $9.80 Place Return, $4.20 Show Return)

Saturday's Grade 3 Ohio Derby kicks of the "second season" for the 3-year-old division. A field of 8 lines up for the $500,000 race, including a trio of Kentucky Derby alumni.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed handicapping factor has pointed to 3 of the past 5 Ohio Derby champions. This group includes Dean Martini, who rewarded his backers with a $31.20 Win mutuel in 2020.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix