All posts by Matt O

Keeneland Handicapping Tips

Friday is opening day for Keeneland's Fall Meet.  Its a short meet: (Oct. 6-28), and when you run into short meets at tracks with big purses like Keeneland, the best approach is often to focus on dominant trainers and jockeys.

Keeneland is located in Lexington, KY,which is the heart of the thoroughbred industry. Most prominent owners, breeders,trainers and jockeys are focused on getting a win there in front of the types of people that could be future customers or employers. Trainers often prep their horses at other tracks for wins at Keeneland. Owners tell their trainers to get the horse ready for this meet so they can get their pictures taken with friends and family, etc.

Looking at the past 3 fall meets in Angler, we are able to identify the trainers, jockeys and T/J combos you should pay close attention to:

Keeneland Fall Meets (2014-2016)
Trainer Starts Wins Places Shows Win% Profit on $2 win bet
Mark Casse 102 28 38 47 27.45 $18.20
Todd Pletcher 82 22 37 44 26.83 $35.80
Ken McPeek 107 21 40 49 19.63 $42.80
Graham Motion 89 19 28 39 21.35 $47.00
Ian Wilkes 123 15 27 42 12.2 $30.80
Andrew McKeever 35 6 12 13 17.14 $73.80
Victoria Oliver 48 6 8 14 12.5 $33.80
Chad Brown 33 5 8 13 15.15 $26.00
Michelle Lovell 14 5 7 9 35.71 $21.80
Chris Hartman 19 4 5 7 21.05 $15.00
Angel Montano 12 4 6 7 33.33 $27.40
Jockey Starts Wins Places Shows Win% Profit on $2 win bet
Julien Leparoux 296 57 105 140 19.26 ($65.80)
CJ Lanerie 320 53 94 145 16.56 ($184.40)
Florent Geroux 250 36 66 100 14.4 ($100.80)
Ricardo Santana 187 26 46 66 13.9 $62.60
Chris Landeros 136 22 35 44 16.18 $187.80
Shaun Bridgmohan 149 21 37 53 14.09 ($113.00)
Paco Lopez 109 18 37 60 16.51 ($56.60)
John Velazquez 64 16 26 30 25 $22.40
HOT COMBOS Starts Wins Places Shows Win% Profit on $2 win bet
Casse/Leparoux 30 14 18 19 46.67 $36.60
McPeek/Leparoux 25 8 11 13 32 $32.00
Wilkes/Landeros 34 7 9 11 20.59 $109.00
McPeek/Landeros 25 6 10 11 24 $62.80
Motion/Prado 9 4 4 4 44.44 $29.40
Casse/Florent 10 4 4 4 40 $18.20
Pletcher/Rosario 8 4 5 6 50 $6.20

Breaking down the race by Dirt/Turf and Sprint/Route, the information below shows you the best factor combinations to look for:

Dirt Sprint Matches Wins Win% Profit on $2 Win Bet
1st Best Speed Last 3 & 1st Avg E2 Pace 85 34 40 $19.80
Dirt Route
1st Avg Speed Last 3 & 1st Avg E2 Pace 51 21 41.2 ($0.08)
Turf Sprint
1st Avg Last 3 Race Class 14 5 35.7 $42.40
Turf Route
Won last race & Top 3 in Speed Last Race 109 25 22.9 $46.60

The best way to use this information is to build Trainer / Jockey Angles.  If you are new to Betmix, or have not yet worked with Angler, take a look at this video that explains how easy it is to create an angle. Putting this information into Angler will pay off handsomely at Keeneland and at other tracks you play.

Trainer / Jockey Angles
 

Get started with your own angles today at Betmix.

Sharp Angles – Ack Ack Stakes

Ack Ack S. (G3)
8F on dirt (September 30)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 21 stakes at one mile on dirt at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 23 contenders, 7 winners (30%, $31.40 flat win bet profit, 168% ROI) 10 win/place (43%, $6.00 place bet profit, 114% ROI)

The Breeders' Cup prep season begins in earnest this weekend with big days at Belmont Park and Santa Anita. The Churchill Downs card also features multiple stakes, including the Ack Ack S. (G3) that serves as the midwest prep for the BC Dirt Mile. Last Late Pace has proven to be a good indicator of success in the mile dirt stakes at Churchill Downs (which are at one turn). The seven winners in this sample have gone off at average odds of nearly 4-1.

Want to look for your own Angles?
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Sharp Angles – Natalma S. & Summer S.

Natalma Stakes (G1) & Summer Stakes (G2)
8F on turf (September 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 8 stakes for two-year-olds at 8F on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 4 winners (44%), $50.30 flat win bet profit (379 ROI%) and $15.90 flat place bet profit & $8.90 flat show bet profit.

The creation of the Breeders' Cup two-year-old turf races several years ago put a couple of late summer stakes at Woodbine front and center - the Natalma Stakes and the Summer Stakes. Using the Betmix Angler online handicapping software we find that Last Late Pace has been a very profitable approach to playing this racetype at the Toronto track. This Angle has pointed to the last three Summer winners (average win payout of $16.86) and to Victory to Victory, heroine of last year's Natalma at a $17.70 win mutuel.

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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Question of the Week – What is Mixbot?

Q: What is Mixbot and how does it work?

A: MixBot handicaps previous similar races, trying to find a mix that would have selected the winner in those races, and then applies that mix to the current race you are handicapping. The MixBot results are found in the handicapping overview section and are categorized by what the winner in previous races paid.

Watch this video for more information on how MixBot works, and how you can use it to win more races:

Question of the Week – Where Can I Find More Track Info?

Q: Where can I find out more information about what is happening at the tracks I play?

A: In addition to all of the horse specific handicapping data we compile at Betmix, we maintain data about each race track. You can find some of that information in the Handicapping Journal, and more detailed stats about each racetrack and race type on any individual race page.

Looking at today’s free race, you will see a button labelled Track Report. When you click that you get detailed information about post and payouts for different race types.

Before handicapping a race its helpful to click on that button and get some idea of how often favorites are winning the type of race you are getting ready to play.

Sharp Angles – Del Mar Derby

Sharp Angle - Sunday, September 3
Del Mar Derby (G2)
9 furlongs on turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 stakes for 3YOs at 9 furlongs on turf at Del Mar
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 5 winners (37%, $39.80 flat win bet profit, 210 ROI% and a $5.60 flat place profit)

The three-year-old male turfers return to the spotlight at Del Mar on Sunday in the Del Mar Derby. We isolated the Last E1 Pace factor for 9-furlong turf stakes a few weeks ago for the Del Mar Oaks and narrowly missed hitting that one after Beau Recall fell a nose shy at nearly 6-1. This factor has also highlighted 2015 Del Mar Derby hero Om, who brought bettors peace with a $15 win mutuel.

Results: Bowies Hero 3rd at $3.40-1

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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Question of the Week – BirdDog

Q: Can I make BirdDog open up using the last 100 races as the default?

A: Yes!  We recently made some changes to BirdDog that allow you to pick the number of past races that are used to compile the statistics for each of the handicapping factors.  You can choose to use the last 200, 100, 40, 20 or 10 most recent races.  By default BirdDog will open up a hew race using the last 40 races since that is most similar to what we showed in the past. If you want to change your default race number all you have to do is click on the options button then select the number of races you want, then click save. After that every race you open will use that number as the default setting.

Step 1: Click on the options button in BirdDog

Step 2: Pick the number of races you want as the default, then click save.


 

Have a question about the Betmix handicapping software? Email Dave - dave@betmix.com

Sharp Angles – Travers Stakes

Travers Stakes
10F on dirt (August 26)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 9 Grade 1's for three-year-olds at 10F on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 3 winners (33%, $31.60 flat win bet profit, 275 ROI% & $5.30 flat place bet profit)

It makes intuitive sense that late runners should excel at the American classic distance of a mile and a quarter. One of the many advantages of using handicapping software like Betmix is the ability to move theory into reality. We know by using Betmix Angler that two of the last four Travers winners (and a recent Alabama Stakes winner) have ranked first in Last Late Pace. Both of the Travers winners paid double digits and would later be named Eclipse Champions - Will Take Charge the $21.20 winner in 2013 and Arrogate who paid $25.40 last year, a payout that looks especially absurd with the benefit of hindsight.

Results: Good Samaritan 5th at $3.85-1

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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NEW! Better BirdDog Statistics

At the core of almost everything in BetMix are the statistics about handicapping factors. When you are handicapping a 6 furlong dirt claiming race at Saratoga which factors are the most important?  When you know that you start to build mixes, angles, etc.  We use those stats to rank the horses in the Handicapping Overview section and in numerous other areas.
In the past we ranked the factors based on the stats for the last 40 similar races. The problem with that was that if you wanted to handicap a race from last week, last month or 2 years ago the statistics would be based on the 40 most recent races. We did that assuming everything should be forward looking based on the most recent information available. But, that is not always ideal.  When you want to back test your handicapping ideas you should only be looking at the data as it existed at the time the race occurred and it should never change. In addition, you might want to look at more or less than 40 races worth of data to rank the factors.Our new BirdDog update makes all of that possible.

By default, when you open a race the factors will be ranked using data for the last 40 similar races.  With the click of a button you can change that to 200, 100, 40, 20 or 10 races.

Sometimes its better to use a very large sample of data, other times you might want to just consider the 10 most recent races.  You can learn a lot by comparing data for the last 100 races to data from the last 10.

This short video will give you some more information on how to use the new and improved factor stats options.

Sharp Angles – Albany Stakes

Albany Stakes
9F on dirt (August 25)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 (non-graded) stakes for three-year-olds at 9F on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 6 winners (40%, $11.80 flat win bet profit, 139 ROI%)

A day before they try to sort out the open three-year-old male division in the Travers Stakes, the New York-bred sophomores square off in the Albany Stakes. Including the race named for New York's capital, there have been 14 main track non-graded stakes for three-year-olds at The Spa since 2013. Last E2 Pace has pointed to the winners of six of those contests including recent Albany winners So Lonesome ($20.80) and Hit It Once More ($3.90).

Results: D'yer Mak'er 5th at 37.25-1

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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