Bryan Station S at Keeneland
8F on Turf (October 29)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 46 8-furlong graded turf stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Earnings Today´ s Track
Factor Stats: 51 contenders, 15 winners (29%, $24.60 Win Return, 124 ROI%), 20 Place (39%), 23 Show (45%)

An overflow field of sophomore turfers is entered for Saturday´ s G2 Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland, one of two graded stakes on the card.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database is designed to help with difficult handicapping puzzles like this one and Angler reveals that the Avg. Earnings Today´ s Track handicaping factor has been lucrative in the 8 furlong graded stakes on the Keeneland lawn.

Nearly one third of the contenders have crossed the wire first, while generating a healthy $24.60 Win Return

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Earnings Today´ s Track slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Maryland Million Classic at Laurel
9F on Dirt (October 22)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 49 9-furlong (non graded) dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Earnings Today´ s Track
Factor Stats: 52 contenders, 421winners (40%, $18.30 Win Return, 117 ROI%), 28 Place (53%,) 34 Show (65%)

Saturday is Maryland Million Day at Laurel with 10 Stakes races for Maryland-bred runners. Per usual these races have drawn deep and competitive fields, including a full field for the Classic going 9 furlongs on the dirt.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database has all the data needed to look for successful handicapping factors for any racetypes. In this instance, Angler reveals that the Avg. Earnings Today´ s Track factor has been very predictive in the 9 furlong non graded stakes on the Laurel main track.

A tick over 40% of the contenders have crossed the wire first while generating a $18.30 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Earnings Today´ s Track slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

October 17, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Trainer Todd Pletcher is poised for a massive Breeders’ Cup success story.

Background:

The Pletcher runners have been on a major tear in October, winning 5 Grade 1 races between Keeneland and the Belmont-at-Aqueduct meeting. But does that success stretch throughout his barn, look any different than normal for this time of year, and foretell any Breeders’ Cup might?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at Pletcher’s October stats each of the past 10 years and cumulatively, tracking win percentage and $1 ROI. It gave us a sample size of more than 850 starters that included 16 Grade 1 wins in that month over the decade.

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2022 26% $1.52 TBD
2021 15% $0.41 BC
2020 24% $0.87
2019 16% $0.52 BC
2018 22% $0.79 BC
2017 21% $0.70
2016 24% $0.97
2015 19% $0.82 BC (2)
2014 24% $0.77
2013 18% $0.66

Overall 21% $0.80

Bottom line:

Pletcher’s 5 Grade 1 wins in October 2022 matches up strongly against his 11 in the prior 9 years of Octobers – with essentially the same national stakes schedule annually. His 26% win rate so far in October rates No. 1 in the decade for this month, while the $1.52 ROI is leaps and bounds higher than previous October performances. But notice Pletcher’s 3 previous best Octobers – 2020, 2016 and 2014 – did not result in a Breeders’ Cup win. His best BC the past decade in 2015 (at Keeneland nonetheless) came after a 19% month of October that ranked fourth-worst of the decade. Is Pletcher hotter than usual coming into the Cup? Absolutely, say the numbers. But does that mean he’ll light it up at the Breeders’ Cup? Albeit a small sample size, history says nothing is promised.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, do the same exercise for other trainers with contenders for this year’s Cup.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland
8.5F on Turf (October 15)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 11 9-furlong turf stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 4 winners (33%, $148.20 Win Return, 717 ROI%), 6 Place/Show (50%, $49 Place Return), $17.10 Show Return

The Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup goes as the lone Grade 1 in North America this weekend.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database has all the data needed to look for successful handicapping factors for any racetypes. In this instance, Angler reveals that the Last Late Pace factor has been very lucrative in the 9 furlong turf stakes on the Keeneland lawn.

One third of the contenders have crossed the wire first, including 74-1 Ever Dangerous (2020 Bryan Station S.) and a trio of recent QE II heroines.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

October 10, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses are requiring more time between starts to be successful in the Breeders’ Cup.

Background:

With the major Breeders’ Cup preps In the rear-view mirror, just what exactly is the optimum time between starts? And does one size fit all?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all Breeders’ Cup winners’ days between starts for all 14 divisions over the past 5 years, trying to keep the comparable as modern as possible to fit the current training style. I looked at the high, low and average days for each division.

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Juvenile Turf Sprint (contested only 4 years)
> High: 90 | Low: 26 | Average: 57

Juvenile Turf
> High: 43 | Low: 20 | Average: 33

Juvenile Fillies Turf
> High: 47 | Low: 23 | Average: 35

Juvenile
> High: 35 | Low: 28 | Average: 33

Juvenile Fillies
> High: 33 | Low: 26 | Average: 29

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Filly and Mare Sprint
> High: 64 | Low: 14 | Average: 36

Turf Sprint
> High: 147 | Low: 28 | Average: 78

Dirt Mile
> High: 70 | Low: 21 | Average: 41

Filly and Mare Turf
> High: 84 | Low: 28 | Average: 51

Sprint
> High: 70 | Low: 28 | Average: 38

Mile
> High: 55 | Low: 27 | Average: 39

Distaff
> High: 86 | Low: 27 | Average: 58

Turf
> High: 84 | Low: 27 | Average: 50

Classic
> High: 63 | Low: 35 | Average: 41

Bottom line:

The average layoff for all Breeders’ Cup winners the past 5 years has been 45 days, a number that would have seemed impossible in past decades when major preps were 21-28 days from the target at most. The Juvenile Fillies is the only division where it has held close to past norms at 29 days between starts. The Turf Sprint races on each day are most friendly to longer layoffs.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out top-3 finishers in each race for exotics help.

Alcibiades S & Breeders Futurity at Keeneland
8.5F on Dirt (October 8 & 9)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 33 G1 8.5-furlong dirt stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 12 winners (32%, $11.00 Win Return, 114 ROI%), 18 Place (48%, $8.30 Place Return), 20 Show (54%)

Here we go! Keeneland roars back to life with typically deep and contentious cards to open up the 2022 Fall Meeting.

Perhaps the two toughest contests over the first three days of the meet are the two Grade 1's for the juvenile set, Friday's Alcibiades and Saturday's Breeders' Futurity. At least 12 starters are scheduled to break from the gate in each.

So what does the Betmix Angler online handicapping database have to say about these races? Angler tells us that the Average Lifetime Earnings handicapping factor has pointed to 32% winners of the recent 8.5 furlong dirt Grade 1s at the historic Lexington oval.

This factor has generated positive Win & Place returns while pointing to recent Alcibiades heroines like My Conquestadory ($4.40), Heavenly Love ($13.40) and Restless Rider ($4.60) along with Breeders' Futurity heroes like Maxfield ($14.80), Essential Quality ($5.80) and Free Drop Billy ($5.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st Average Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

October 3, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The Kentucky Downs turf horses are where you should focus for Keeneland’s Fall Meet on grass.

Background:

With no turf racing at Churchill Downs during its September stand, the natural assumption for horseplayers at Keeneland – which begins Friday – will be to focus on the grass horses who last raced at Kentucky Downs. How do those performers fare historically? Let’s go to the numbers.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all Fall Meet races run at Keeneland going back to 2014. I looked at win percentages and $1 ROI for each horse who raced at Keeneland on turf and dirt via Kentucky Downs final preps and compared vs. all other venues.

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Horses exiting Kentucky Downs races won 9.2% on the Keeneland turf with a $0.59 ROI.
Horses exiting other venues than Kentucky Downs won 10.4% on the Keeneland turf with a $0.83 ROI.

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Horses exiting Kentucky Downs races won 11.9% on the Keeneland dirt with a $0.92 ROI.
Horses exiting other venues than Kentucky Downs won 12.8% on the Keeneland dirt with a $0.76 ROI.

Bottom line:

The Kentucky Downs-prepped turf horses have underperformed on grass at Keeneland in terms of win percentage (-2.2%) and especially $1 ROI for every $1 bet (-$0.24) when compared to horses from all other venues. Interestingly, it’s on dirt where the Kentucky Downs-prepped value lies, posting a sharp $0.92 ROI (+$0.16 compared to all other venues). The numbers – in the past at least – indicate the Kentucky Downs turf path isn’t what the perception is. But that could change without Churchill turfers available this meet. But expect the KD horses to be overbet to start the meet, and be flexible in hopping on board if this trend shifts due to the CD situation.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, was there a particular class of race in which the KD performers did better or worse at Keeneland?

Belmont Turf Sprint S. (G3) at Aqueduct
6F on Dirt (September 24, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 20 6F turf stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 6 winners (30%, $43.30 Win Return, 208 ROI%), 8 Place (53%, $3.90 Place Return), 12 Show (60%, $8.30 Show Return)

Not all of the big stakes on the Belmont at the Big A card at Aqueduct have drawn big, competitive fields but the Belmont Turf Sprint sure did. The race will actually be the first graded turf sprint at Aqueduct but there are 20 non graded 6 furlong turf stakes in the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database to analyze.

Angler tells us that the Avg. of Last E2 Pace handicapping factor has produced 30% winners of this racetype and a sterling $43.30 Win Return. It´s also produced 60% in the money finishes and positive Place and Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Cotillion S. at Parx
8.5F on Dirt (September 24, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 13 Graded 8.5F dirt Stakes at Parx
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey 2-year Win % This Race Type
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 6 winners (46%, $22.40 Win Return, 186 ROI%), 7 Place/Show (53%).

Saturday is the biggest day of the year at Parx featuring TEN stakes and a pair of Grade 1s, including the Cotillion for sophomore fillies.

With a tough field of 9 set to face the starter we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help and learned that the Jockey 2-year Win % This Race Type handicapping factor has been predictive in the 8.5F graded dirt stakes at Parx, especially the Cotillion.

This factor has pointed to nearly of the past 13 winners of this racetype including 4 Cotillion heroines, two who returned a double digit win mutuels, Midnight Bisou ($10.40) and Street Band ($17.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey 2-year Win % This Race Type slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

September 19, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Major stakes races have become increasingly more difficult to find a price play.

Background:

After a summer at Saratoga with short fields and short prices in graded stakes race, where 42% of favorites won and were an average favorite’s price of just 4-5, there’s a sense that stakes races aren’t providing the value bettors seek. But is that just a recent feeling and providing a bias, or is there more to it?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all graded stakes races in North America from 2014-present. I studied average win odds and percentage of winning favorites and compared those across the years.

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Favorites have won 45.5% in graded stakes in 2022.
Favorites won 45.03% in graded stakes in 2021.
Favorites won 43.8% in graded stakes in 2020.
Favorites won 36.2% in graded stakes in 2019.
Favorites won 38.4% in graded stakes in 2018.
Favorites won 38.2% in graded stakes in 2017.
Favorites won 37.5% in graded stakes in 2016.
Favorites won 33.4% in graded stakes in 2015.
Favorites won 35.1% in graded stakes in 2014.

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Average win odds is 5.08 in graded stakes in 2022.
Average wins odds were 4.90 in graded stakes in 2021.
Average wins odds were 5.11 in graded stakes in 2020.
Average wins odds were 5.49 in graded stakes in 2019.
Average wins odds were 5.37 in graded stakes in 2018.
Average wins odds were 5.28 in graded stakes in 2017.
Average wins odds were 5.57 in graded stakes in 2016.
Average wins odds were 5.30 in graded stakes in 2015.
Average wins odds were 5.20 in graded stakes in 2014.

Bottom line:

Favorites are winning at a higher percentage in graded stakes this year than any of the last 9 in the Betmix database, and up more than 7 points on the averages we were used to seeing from 2014-2020. The major spike began a year ago in 2021 and is holding beyond just a one-time seasonal anomaly. Also the average win odds for graded stakes races has been the lowest the past 2 years of the 9-year study with 2021 a tad shorter in price, though we still have a quarter of the 2022 season to see how things finish.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, how does this angle perform over various tracks?