October 10, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Horses are requiring more time between starts to be successful in the Breeders’ Cup.
With the major Breeders’ Cup preps In the rear-view mirror, just what exactly is the optimum time between starts? And does one size fit all?
I fired up the Betmix database to look at all Breeders’ Cup winners’ days between starts for all 14 divisions over the past 5 years, trying to keep the comparable as modern as possible to fit the current training style. I looked at the high, low and average days for each division.
Juvenile Turf Sprint (contested only 4 years)
> High: 90 | Low: 26 | Average: 57
> High: 43 | Low: 20 | Average: 33
Juvenile Fillies Turf
> High: 47 | Low: 23 | Average: 35
> High: 35 | Low: 28 | Average: 33
> High: 33 | Low: 26 | Average: 29
Filly and Mare Sprint
> High: 64 | Low: 14 | Average: 36
> High: 147 | Low: 28 | Average: 78
> High: 70 | Low: 21 | Average: 41
Filly and Mare Turf
> High: 84 | Low: 28 | Average: 51
> High: 70 | Low: 28 | Average: 38
> High: 55 | Low: 27 | Average: 39
> High: 86 | Low: 27 | Average: 58
> High: 84 | Low: 27 | Average: 50
> High: 63 | Low: 35 | Average: 41
The average layoff for all Breeders’ Cup winners the past 5 years has been 45 days, a number that would have seemed impossible in past decades when major preps were 21-28 days from the target at most. The Juvenile Fillies is the only division where it has held close to past norms at 29 days between starts. The Turf Sprint races on each day are most friendly to longer layoffs.
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out top-3 finishers in each race for exotics help.