August 8, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s horses struggle outside of Florida.

Background:

After Skippylongstocking won Saturday’s $500,000 West Virginia Derby, it silenced a bit of the chatter that trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s horses simply aren’t as good away from Gulfstream Park. The high-percentage trainer has risen in profile over recent years with Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup-type performers, extending beyond a regional operation. But is the moniker true that he’s far superior at Gulfstream than the road?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database over the past 10 years going back to summer 2012 with Saffie Joseph’s starters. More than 3,000 starters appear in the search with just over 2,600 of them coming at Gulfstream Park (or Gulfstream Park West).

Overall Win Percentage: 21.8% (ROI $0.84)

Gulfstream Park Win Percentage: 23.0% (ROI $0.87)

Non-Gulfstream Park Win Percentage: 14.9% (ROI $0.66)

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Gulfstream Park Favorites Win Percentage: 40.1%

Non-Gulfstream Park Favorites Win Percentage: 34.4%

Bottom line:

Saffie Joseph Jr’s win percentage is 8.1% higher over the past decade at Gulfstream Park than on the road. There’s no doubt credence to his home success far outweighing his road trips. The roadies are in interesting mixed back with a fantastic 19-72 at Belmont and Aqueduct (26%), but a woeful 5-71 (7%) at Saratoga when under the national spotlight. He holds out at 16% with Tampa Bay shippers across the state of Florida, but when you remove those, his overall shippers outside Gulfstream drop to 14.5%. When you look at the ROI, it’s obvious that the Joseph runners are being overbet and underperforming on the road at a return $0.21 less than at Gulfstream. Joseph favorites win 5.7% higher at Gulfstream than on the road as well. It’s impossible to argue against his performance home and away.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check the race classes of the Joseph shippers and see where they may or may not be as successful when on the road.

Saratoga Derby Inv. (G1)
9.5F on Turf (August 6)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 26 Saratoga turf stakes at 9-10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer 1-Year Win %
Factor Stats: 47 contenders, 11 winners (23.4%, $26.30 Win Return, 128 ROI%), 28 Place/Show (59%, $7.50 Place Return, $4.40 Show Return)

Saturday's Saratoga Derby Invitational continues the New York Turf Triple for sophomore males and has drawn a compelling field of 10.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world´ s most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights and learned that the Trainer 1-Year Win % handicapping factor has been profitable in this race type.

The 11 winners this factor has pointed to include the winner of last year´ s Derby, 21-1 State of Rest.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer 1-Year Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

August 2, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horseplayers catch on at boutique meetings Saratoga and Del Mar after the first few weeks.

Background:

Many horseplayers will note that the start of a big meet like Saratoga or Del Mar – or anywhere for that matter – is a time to feel things out. That they’ll wait for later in the meet to settle in. But do the results of the races bear that out as a real strategy?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to separate the July and August/September results at both Saratoga and Del Mar over the past 5 years.

Saratoga average July winners were 5.18-1 odds.
Saratoga average August/September winners were 4.87-1 odds.
Saratoga percentage of winning July favorites was 34.3%.
Saratoga percentage of winning August/September favorites was 35.0%.

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Del Mar average July winners were 5.53-1 odds.
Del Mar average August/September winners were 5.37-1 odds.
Del Mar percentage of winning July favorites was 34.10%.
Del Mar percentage of winning August/September favorites was 33.8%.

Bottom line:

The average winner in August/September dropped by .31 odds at Saratoga and .16 odds at Del Mar compared to July early season winners. Saratoga’s percentage of winning favorites grew .7% later in the meet, while Del Mar’s dropped .3%. These results mostly would suggest that the meets get a bit easier to handicap at they proceed deeper into the season, certainly an easy argument to support at Saratoga than Del Mar.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check each track by race condition to see which types of races have changed the most in terms of payoffs and favorites. Also, do similar studies for the tracks you follow in terms of early and late seasons.

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week HorsePlayer.com´s Jeremy Plonk uses the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Below are some recent Angler deep dives that apply to the important Saratoga and Del Mar meetings.

Saratoga Assumption

Turf sprints make the Saratoga meet even tougher handicapping. (July 25). Click for full post.

Del Mar Assumption

Del Mar Assumption: The Ship-and-Win program horses for Del Mar’s summer meet are strong bets who are sent west with great intent. Click for full post.

Saratoga Assumption

Saratoga Assumption: There are no secrets with Saratoga first-time starters. Click for full post.

Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

July 25, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Turf sprints make the Saratoga meet even tougher handicapping.

Background:

Horsesplayers often lament the chaotic nature of turf sprints in their handicapping, especially at Saratoga, where they are an increasingly more prevalent part of the daily schedule. While turf sprints often have larger field sizes, do they actually create a significantly more difficult piece of the handicapping puzzle?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all race types at Saratoga since the start of 2018 meet. Four groupings: turf sprints, turf routes, dirt sprints, dirt routes were examined for both average win odds and reliability of favorites in terms of win percentage. Here’s what we found:

Turf sprints have an average win odds of 5.2-1.
Dirt sprints have an average win odds of 4.9-1.
Turf routes have an average win odds of 5.0-1.
Dirt routes have an average win odds of 3.7-1.

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Turf sprints have a favorite’s win percentage of 32.1%.
Dirt sprints have a favorite’s win percentage of 36.4%.
Turf routes have a favorite’s win percentage of 32.7%.
Dirt routes have a favorite’s win percentage of 36.7%.

Bottom line:

Turf sprints do produce the longest-priced winners at 5.2-1 and are 0.3 longer than turf routes, 0.4 longer than dirt sprints and a significant 1.5 longer than dirt routes. Turf sprints also have the shortest win percentage among favorites at 32.1%, a slight 0.6% less than turf routes, but significantly shorter than dirt sprints by 4.3% and dirt routes by 4.6%. By the numbers, the turf sprints do make handicapping more difficult for players, but not to much degree more than turf routes. It’s simply the turf races are tougher to evaluate than the dirt races, particularly in the route ranks.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, evaluate the turf sprints when equalizing field sizes, and also look at turf sprints vs. other races at various race classes.

Haskell S. (G1)
9F on Dirt (July 21)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 editions of the Haskell Inv.
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 6 winners (42%, $19.40 Win Return, 169 ROI%), 7 Place/show (50%, $4.70 Place Return)

Saturday´ s Haskell Stakes has drawn a fascinating field of 8 sophomores including the winners of the Santa Anita, Arkansas and Florida Derbies. And neither may be the favorite with the unbeaten one-turn sensation Jack Christopher also in the starting gate.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world´ s most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights and learned that the Best Lifetime Speed handicapping factor has pointed to 42% winners of this race while generating a $19.40 Win Return. The sample includes the double-digit winners Girvin ($20.40) and Bayern ($11.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Lifetime Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

July 18, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The Ship-and-Win program horses for Del Mar’s summer meet are strong bets who are sent west with great intent.

Background:

For more than a decade, Del Mar has added purse incentives to attract horses from outside California for its summer meeting. The theory is to bolster field quantity and quality. But have said ‘shippers’ added to the product or merely worked some loopholes? While the program has good intentions, I wanted to find out how it's impacting the horseplayers.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at the past five summer meets at Del Mar, 2017-2021. I wanted to see how horses who last raced outside of California have fared, how well they were regarded in the betting and who was training these horses – west coasters or actual non-California barns. More than 650 horses show up in the database at Del Mar during that time, exiting races outside California, 180+ of them in stakes races. While there are some eligibility requirements to the complete Ship & Win program, this short dive gives a good look at the out of town impact.

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Ship-and-Win horses have average odds of 14.33-1 vs. 16.04-1 for all starters.

Ship-and-Win horses have a 13.6% win rate and 25.9% exacta rate vs. 11.9% and 23.8% for all starters.

Ship-and-Win horses have a $0.59 ROI vs. $0.77 for all starters.

Notable Non-California trainers to have 10+ Ship-and-Win horses: 6 (Mark Casse, Victoria Olivier, Mike Maker, Dallas Keen, Tom Proctor, Molly Pearson).

Bottom line:

The overwhelming majority of starters from non-California races come from California-based trainers – Bob Hess, Peter Miller, Phil D’Amato and Doug O’Neill all with 30+. None of the non-California trainers with 10+ starters has topped 18 starters in the 5-year study, so that means they’re bringing 3 or 4 horses per summer max from any barn. The Ship-and-Win horses have as slightly better win and exacta rate by 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively, but their odds are shorter and their ROI significantly less by $0.18. They do not provide a better value betting opportunity to the horseplayer evaluating them vs. the locals.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, look at each class of race and turf vs. dirt for these Del Mar ship-ins.

Sanford S. (G3)
6F on Dirt (July 16)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 16 6-furlong graded dirt stakes for 2-year-olds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey Current Year
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 6 winners (29%, $28.60 Win Return, 147 ROI%), 12 Place/show (40%, $14.40 Place Return)

Here we go! The first Saturday of the Saratoga meeting features a pair of graded stakes, including the historic Sanford for juvenile colts. A full dozen are set to break from the starting gate so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some insights.

The world´ s most powerful online handicapping database tells us that the Jockey This Year handicapping factor has pointed to 20% winners of this racetype while generating a $28.60 Win Return and a $14.40 Place Return

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey This Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

July 11, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

There are no secrets with Saratoga first-time starters.

Background:

Thursday opens the Saratoga racing season, and it’s known for outstanding maidens that often become tomorrow’s stars. With the intense focus of the Spa and close-knit racing community there, it’s often said that word spreads on a good one. Is it any more true than anywhere else? Let’s check the numbers.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all first-time starters at Saratoga over the past 5 years – delivering more than 2,000 debut runners. I studied all Saratoga first-time starters in terms of average win payoff, win percentage and ROI. I compared those numbers with NYRA circuit sister tracks Aqueduct and Belmont, as well as summer counterpart Del Mar and the national averages.

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Saratoga first-time starters won at average offs of 6.0-1.

National first-time starters won at average offs of 6.9-1.
Aqueduct first-time starters won at average offs of 8.2-1.
Belmont first-time starters won at average offs of 7.4-1.
Del Mar first-time starters won at average offs of 6.2-1.

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Saratoga favorited first-time starters won 34.6% with a $0.87 ROI for every $1 bet.

National favorited first-time starters won 33.7% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.
Aqueduct favorited first-time starters won 31.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Belmont favorited first-time starters won 35.2% with a $0.84 ROI for every $1 bet.
Del Mar favorited first-time starters won 47.0% with a $1.10 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

First-time starters who won were nearly a full point lower on the tote than the national average, more than 2 points lower than those at Aqueduct and 1.2 points lower than Belmont – easily the most ‘identified’ on the NYRA circuit. They also were slightly lower in returns than rookie winners at Del Mar by .2 points. Saratoga’s favorites among the debut runners won slightly more often than the national average by .9%. They easily outperformed those from Aqueduct, but actually came home 3.4% less often than Belmont debut favorites and a whopping 15.2% less often than their Del Mar brethren. The average odds lean toward Saratoga gives an impression that there are fewer big surprises among first-time starters than the comparable tracks and national average; but the performance of favorites suggests that the betting public has no decided advantage identifying a live rookie at Saratoga more so than anywhere else.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, break these numbers down for maiden special or maiden claiming races, dirt vs. turf, and see if any indicators may exist in more specialized races.

Indiana Derby & Oaks at Horseshoe Indianapolis
8.5F on Dirt (July 9)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 Horseshoe Indy graded dirt stakes at 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 7 winners (38%, $27.20 Win Return, 175 ROI%), 10 Place (55%, $13.40 Place Return), 13 Show (72%, $6.00 Show Return)

The rebranded Horseshoe Indianapolis (formerly Indiana Grand) will host its biggest card of the season on Saturday. Horseplayers will be challenged by a total of 8 stakes races, including the Indiana Derby and Indiana Oaks, going a mile and one sixteenth on the main track.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Last E2 Pace handicapping factor has pointed 38% winners in the raced type while generating a healthy $27.20 Win Return. Among the winners are a pair of Derby winners and 5 Oaks heroines.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix