Delaware Oaks (G3) at Delaware Park
8.5F on Dirt (July 2)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 17 Delaware Park graded dirt stakes at 8.5 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Race Class
Factor Stats: 28 contenders, 7 winners (25%, $80.40 Win Return, 243 ROI%), 11 Place (39%), 13 Show (46%, $54.30 Show Return)

We head to historic Delaware Park for this week's Sharp Angles dive into the Betmix Angler online handicapping database. Saturday's feature is the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks that has brought together a competitive field of eight sophomore fillies.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Last Race Class handicapping factor has pointed 25% winners in the 8.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at the Stanton, Delaware oval. This group includes Calamity Kate who exited the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes to capture the Del Oaks at a whopping $110.80 win mutuel.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Race Class slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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DO THE BIG BELMONT BARNS LOOK AHEAD TO SARATOGA?

Assumption:

The pocket between the Belmont Stakes and the start of Saratoga is a place where the top barns reload for the summer.

Read more

CREDENCE TO 7-FURLONG SPECIALISTS?

Assumption:

Seven furlongs is a specialist’s distance.

Read more

June 27, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Seven furlongs is a specialist’s distance.

Background:

With Saturday’s Princess Rooney Stakes at Gulfstream one of the calendar’s most important 7-furlong sprints annually, the old racetrack axiom that 7-furlong races are for specialists comes to mind. The distance is demanding on the fleet dashers, but quicker than most routers can handle. Let’s see if the numbers suggest.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all 7 furlong dirt races run this year in the US. I wanted to see how horses performed exiting races shorter, longer and at the same trip. A total of 916 races were surveyed. I also looked at horses in those 3 scenarios in terms of how often each category won over 7 furlongs.
I also extended that out to look at the last 10,000 such starters at 7 furlongs to see if 2022 was representative, long-term.

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This year so far:

7-furlong entrants who last raced shorter than 7 furlongs won 13.5% with a $0.70 ROI for every $1 bet.
7-furlong entrants who last raced longer than 7 furlongs won 12.4% with a $0.68 ROI for every $1 bet.
7-furlong entrants who last raced 7 furlongs won 15.7% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Over the past 10,000 starters at 7 furlongs:

7-furlong entrants who last raced shorter than 7 furlongs won 12.2% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
7-furlong entrants who last raced longer than 7 furlongs won 11.4% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.
7-furlong entrants who last raced 7 furlongs won 14.0% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

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This year so far:

Horses exiting races shorter than 7 furlongs won 462 of the 916 races at 7-furlongs (50.4%).
Horses exiting races exactly at 7 furlongs won 192 of the 916 races at 7-furlongs (21.0%).
Horses exiting races shorter than 7 furlongs won 239 of the 916 races at 7-furlongs (26.0%).

**first-time starters accounted for the other 23 victories**

Bottom line:
Both current and long-term, horses exiting 7-furlong races won 7-furlong races at a higher strike rate (+2.2% short-term, +1.8% long-term) than those changing distances. Horses remaining at 7 furlongs also had the higher ROI (+$0.10 short-term, +$0.05 long-term). Those horses remaining at the same distance are fewer in number and therefore accounted for the least amount of total victories as horses stretching out in distance easily won the most races. But there’s no doubt when you find a horse for 7 furlongs exiting a 7-furlong race, the specialist distance assumption rings true by a decent margin. And this narrow study does not even account for past success at the 7-furlong trip.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, consider which tracks have the most impact in terms of 7-furlong specialists.

Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown
9F on Dirt (June 25)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 5 runnings of the Ohio Derby
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 5 contenders, 3 winners (60%, $32.20 Win Return, 422 ROI%), 4 Place/Show (80%, $9.80 Place Return, $4.20 Show Return)

Saturday's Grade 3 Ohio Derby kicks of the "second season" for the 3-year-old division. A field of 8 lines up for the $500,000 race, including a trio of Kentucky Derby alumni.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed handicapping factor has pointed to 3 of the past 5 Ohio Derby champions. This group includes Dean Martini, who rewarded his backers with a $31.20 Win mutuel in 2020.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

June 20, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Races like the Ohio Derby are prime landing spots for horses exiting the Triple Crown.

Background:

Saturday’s Ohio Derby will be one of the first regional Derby races offered after the Triple Crown, and these races often lure name players the public got acquainted through the Triple Crown. But are they good bets in this ‘re-set’ of races?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all Ohio Derby entrants over the past 8 years, 77 in all. I separated those who exited Triple Crown starts and those who did not and compared records.

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Non-Triple Crown Starters in the Ohio Derby
62: 4-13-19
6% Wins (2014, 2018, 2020, 2021)
$0.63 ROI
58% In The Money

Triple Crown Starters in the Ohio Derby
15: 4-3-5
27% Wins (2015, 2016, 2017, 2019)
$1.03 ROI
73% In The Money

Bottom line:

The Triple Crown alumni have less than one-quarter of the Ohio Derby starters over the past 8 years, yet are on equal footing in wins with a much higher win percentage (+21%). The Triple Crown starters also are more likely to finish in the money by 15% and have a much higher ROI (+$0.40) compared to non-Triple Crown starters. Even with non-Triple Crown horses winning the past 2 years in the Ohio Derby, the assumption that the Ohio Derby is a prime landing spot for TC alumni is true.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out where each Ohio Derby starter has come from most recently in terms of both tracks and race classes.

Monmouth S. (G3) at Monmouth Park
9F on Turf (June 11)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 28 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Monmouth
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 33 contenders, 9 winners (27%, $14.20 Win Return, 121 ROI%), 18 Place (54%), 21 show (63%)

Saturday's Monmouth Park card features four Stakes races that serve as auditions for Haskell Day next month at the Jersey Shore. Among the quartet of Stakes on Saturday is the Monmouth Stakes that drew a competitive field of a dozen middle-distance turf runners.

Angler tells that horses who have flashed good late speed in their previous start have been dangerous in this race type. This evidenced by the fact that horses ranking first in Last Late Pace have won 27% of the graded 9F turf stakes at Monmouth since 2012 while generating a $14.20 Win Return. They have also hit the board at a 63% clip.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

June 13, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The pocket between the Belmont Stakes and the start of Saratoga is a place where the top barns reload for the summer.

Background:

Saturday’s Triple Crown closer at Belmont Park featured a bevy of top-class stakes races over several racing days. But with Saratoga still about 4+ weeks away, there’s a feeling among horseplayers that some of the biggest barns will be looking ahead to the Spa. Can that be quantified?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at late-season Belmont Park results over the past 4 years when Saratoga immediately followed (discounting the re-arranged 2020 pandemic seasons). I wanted to see if any of the heavyweight barns performed less-than-expected during that time. When looking at NYRA racing, Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, Bill Mott, Christophe Clement and Shug McGaughey stand out with the highest-quality stables. I’ll use those as my benchmark.

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2021
Pletcher 9-41 (22%)
Brown 9-45 (20%)
Mott 3-24 (12.5%)
Clement 6-49 (12%)
McGaughey 4-15 (27%)

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2019
Pletcher 8-33 (24.2%)
Brown 7-42 (16.7%)
Mott 2-12 (16.7%)
Clement 8-34 (22.5%)
McGaughey 4-18 (22.2%)

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2018
Pletcher 5-47 (10.6%)
Brown 13-74 (17.6%)
Mott 7-44 (15.9%)
Clement 14-51 (27.5%)
McGaughey 2-25 (8.0%)

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2017
Pletcher 8-53 (15.1%)
Brown 16-78 (20.5%)
Mott 7-56 (12.5%)
Clement 9-48 (18.8%)
McGaughey 3-35 (8.6%)

Bottom line:
Todd Pletcher may have once been overlooking this time on the calendar, but his last 2 years indicate that’s not the case. Chad Brown has maintained a consistent 16-20% strike rate this time of year, but that’s definitely a cut below his normal Belmont output. Clement is coming off a down year, but previously was right on cue this time of year for his barn. McGaughey, like Pletcher, once may have been saving arsenal, but the last 2 years don’t give that impression.

To say outright that the top barns are awaiting Saratoga would be a generalization not based totally on the numbers. The increased purses on the NYRA circuit in racing years make it highly profitable no matter if it’s late Belmont or the Spa. Of the big players, Chad Brown would be the one to perhaps look at most consistently as a barn that’s awaiting Saratoga. But as the big swings show above, look at the immediate performance of these barns this week post-Belmont and you may find some horses to fade over the next few weeks.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check the classes of races and how these barns perform in the interim between the Belmont Stakes and Saratoga.

Belmont S. (G1) at Belmont Park
12F on Dirt (June 11)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 8 Belmont Stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 4 winners (40%, $37.10 Win Return, 285 ROI%), 4 Place (40%, $7.10 Place Return), 5 show (50%, $7.70 Show Return)

Saturday's Belmont Stakes is known as the 'Test of Champions' due to its demanding mile and one half distance.

While stamina is surely needed to the get trophy in the Belmont, the Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that early speed is also key to winning this Classic.

Angler shows that 4 of the past 8 Belmont Stakes heroes ranked first in Last E1 Pace. While the two most recent Triple Crown champions, American Pharoah ($3.50) and Justify ($3.60) are among these winners, a pair of longshots round out the sample. 2013 winner Palace Malice returned $29.60 to his backers and a year later Tonalist paid $20.40.

This handicapping factor also pointed to Joevia, third in the 2019 Belmont at 21-1.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Soaring Softly S. (G3) & Paradise Creek S. at Belmont Park
7F on Turf (May 28 & 29, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 56 7F turf stakes at Belmont Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Meet
Factor Stats: 61 contenders, 17 winners (27%, $49.20 Win Return, 140 ROI%), 27 Place (44%, $16.20 Place Return), 35 Show (57%)

There is huge buffet of stakes racing across North America this Memorial Day Weekend. Among them are a pair of relatively rare 7-furlong turf blacktype events at Belmont Park - the Grade 3 Soaring Softly for older females and the Paradise Creek for sophomore males.

A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database found that the Trainer Current Meet handicapping factor has been quite predictive in these 7-furlong turf stakes at Belmont.

The hot trainer has won 27% of the time while generating a very nice $49.20 Win Return. Among the winners is last year´ s Soaring Softly heroine By Bye who returned $19 to her backers.

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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Jim McKay S. at Pimlico
5F on Turf (May 21)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 30 5-furlong turf stakes at Pimlico
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 36 contenders, 16 winners (44%, $8.80 Win Return, 112 ROI%), 22 place (61%, $7.40 Place Return), 27 show (75%, $7.70 Show Return)

The Jim McKay Turf Sprint honors the late, great ABC sportscaster and Maryland racing advocate and this year it serves as the lead-in to Preakness 147 on Saturday´´ s tremendous card at Old Hilltop.

The 5-furlong turf affair has drawn a salty field of 10 and tough turf sprint stakes like these are prime candidates for the big data handicapping analysis provided by the Betmix Angler online database.

Angler reveals that the Avg. Speed Last 3 handicapping factor has shown good results in this race type. Some 44% of the contenders ranking first in this factor have won and 75% have factored in the trifecta, all while generating plus Returns across the board.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix