Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

New! – Custom Factor View in BirdDog

We have added a Custom factor tab to BirdDog that will only show the factors that you select.

To add factors to your custom tab just click on the OPTIONS icon on the BirdDog page:

When you are in the options menu click on the drop-down list of custom factors.  Click on any factor you want to see in on your custom tab.

After selecting your factors you will see them in the custom tab in the Factor Statistics view:

Having a view of the factors you use most often can speed up your handicapping and help you quickly spot contenders.

Pedigree Handicapping – 2019 2-Year-Old Sires

There are several 2019 first year stallions that have breeders excited and a couple of them have been beneficial to handicappers as well.

Tapiture and Constitution rank 1-2 in their sire crop by winners and both showed bettors a positive Win Return in 2019. Summer Front, a first year son of War Front, is also among the six total stallions whose progeny showed a plus Win Return this year. Another first year sire, Competitive Edge, is tops among all sires in our sample by with a 29.58% Win percentage.

The leader among all 2019 juvenile sires with a whopping $239.70 Win Return is Bodemeister. That figure for the 2019 fourth crop stallion was buoyed by Toy Show, a $180 Maiden Claimer victor at Woodbine on December 7 and by Cheermeister, who returned $80.80 to his backers for his October 14 Maiden victory. The former WinStar stallion will stand future seasons in Turkey but bettors may want to pay closer attention to the juveniles he's left behind in North America.

See the chart below for full progeny stats on the most prominent 2-year-old sires of 2019.

Pedigree Handicapping – 2019 Turf Sires

In our past couple annual surveys of the most profitable turf sires in North America we were surprised to find a small number of stallions whose progeny have put bettors on the green in the black.

In 2018, for example, only two sires - Quality Road and Giant's Causeway - showed a positive Win Return with their grass runners. As the chart below shows, that figure doubled in 2019 with Stormy Atlantic, his son Get Stormy, Into Mischief and Hard Spun all showing in the plus column.

The chart also shows that Hard Spun had the highest turf Win % and Twirling Candy was tops in In the Money % (42.25%) by a slight margin over Ghostzapper ($45.22).

Sharp Angles – Sugar Swirl S.

Sugar Swirl S.
6F on dirt at Gulfstream Park (December 14)
Races Analyzed
: Last 36 graded stakes at Gulfstream going 6 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 16 winners (43 %) $55.60.00 Win Return, 25 place/show (67%) $19.80 place return

The Sugar Swirl Stakes for female sprinters is one of a quintet of blacktype races on the December 14 card at Gulfstream Park. An evenly-matched lineup of nine will break from the gate so we turned to the Betmix Angler handicapping database for some help.

We found that In the Money % has pointed to 43% winners who've produced a hefty $55.60 Win Return in graded dirt sprint at the South Florida oval.

What's more is this factor has pointed to the last five Sugar Swirl winners - Dream Pauline ($5.40), Rich Mommy ($27.20), Dearest ($3.20), Best Behavior ($12.20) and Merry Meadow ($7.20).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Autumn Days S.

Autumn Days S.
6F on turf at Aqueduct (December 7)
Races Analyzed
: Last 13 turf stakes at Aqueduct going 6 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%) $37.00 Win Return, 8 place/show (61%) $9.60 place return, $8.80 show return

Saturday is the last big day of 2019 on the NYRA circuit with a six-stakes card at Aqueduct. Among them is the Autumn Days going 6 furlongs on the grass.

Turf sprint stakes are relatively new at The Big A - only 13 have been run in the past 8 years - but the Betmix Angler handicapping database reveals a positive trend.

The Average Last 3 E2 Pace factor has produced 30% winners and over 60% the money finishes in this race type while showing healthy Win ($37), Place (9.60) and Show ($8.80) returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Jimmy Durante S. & Cecil B. DeMille S.

Jimmy Durante S. & Cecil B. DeMille S. (G3)
8F on turf at Del Mar (November 30 & December 1)
Races Analyzed
: Last 26 juvenile turf stakes, one mile on Del Mar turf
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Earnings Today's Distance
Factor Stats: 36 contenders, 10 winners (27%) $20.40 Win Return (128% Win ROI), 19 place/show (52%) $2.50 show return.

A pair of competitive juvenile turf stakes - Saturday's Jimmy Durante S. and Sunday's Cecil B. DeMille S. - help close out the final weekend of 2019 racing at Del Mar.

We queried the Betmix Angler handicapping database for clues to success in the juvenile turf stakes going a mile over the Del Mar lawn and found that Average Earnings Today's Distance has yielded a solid win profit.

The factor has pointed to 27% winners of this racetype and over half of the contenders have factored in the trifecta.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Earnings Today's Distance slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Red Smith S.

Red Smith S. (G3)
11F on turf at Aqueduct (November 23)
Races Analyzed
: Last 12 marathon graded turf stakes at Aqueduct (11 furlongs or longer).
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked Jockey Current Year
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 5 winners (33%) $36.00 Win Return, 11 place/show (73%) $22.50 place return, $15.80 show return

The Sharp Angles blog has provided valuable handicapping insights to readers all year, especially the past two weeks. Last Saturday, the Betmix Angler database highlighted Mr. Misunderstood ($11.20) in the River Cities H. and the week prior Mr. Dumas ($21.40) was the Sharp Angles play in the Commonwealth Turf.

This week we queried the Angler handicapping database for insights in the Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct that drew an overflow field. We found that Jockey Current Year has been predictive in the graded turf marathons over the Aqueduct lawn.

The factor has pointed to 33% winners of this racetype including 3 of the past 6 Red Smith winners - Imaging ($8.30 to win), Mr Maybe ($6.80) and Village King ($11.80) last year.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey Current Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – River Cities S.

River CitiesS. (G3)
9F on turf at Churchill Downs (November 16)
Races Analyzed
: Last 30 9-furlong turf graded stakes at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Win %
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 11 winners (29%) $18.00 Win Return, 20 place/show (54%) $11.00 place return.

Sharp Angles readers were pointed to a nice score last Saturday at Churchill when Mr Dumas returned $21.40 to his backers in the Commonwealth Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs. We head back to the Churchill turf this week for the 10-horse River Cities Stakes.

We queried the Betmix Angler handicapping database for 9-furlong grass stakes under the Twin Spires and found that Win % has been a positive factor.

The factor has pointed to nearly 30% winners who've generated a Win Return of $18.

Among the winners is last year's River Cities conqueror Mr. Misunderstood who will defend his title on Saturday. Is he the one again? Find this race in Betmix BirdDog and use the Win % slider to find out.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Commonwealth Turf S.

Commonwealth Turf S. (G3)
8.5F on turf at Churchill Downs (November 9)
Races Analyzed
: Last 28 8.5-furlong turf graded stakes for 3YOs at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 26 contenders, 8 winners (30%) $38.90 Win Return, 14 place/show (53%) $5.00 place return & 4.10 show return.

Breeders' Cup swallowed up many of the early November graded races in North America, leaving just one this weekend. But it's a good one. The Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes for sophomore turfers has drawn an overflow field.

Competitive races like this are perfect for Betmix Angler handicapping database analysis. Sure enough, we found a profitable predictive factor for this race type.

Average of Last 3 Late Pace is that factor and it's pointed to 30% winners, 53% in-the-money finishers and yielded positive returns across the board. And it's already worked this year with last spring's American Turf S. (G2) hero Digital Age ($19.20) among the winners.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Classic

Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)
10F on dirt at Santa Anita (November 2)
Races Analyzed
: Last 16 10-furlong dirt Grade 1's at Santa Anita
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%) $43.40 Win Return, 13 place/show (76%) $9.00 place return & 8.50 show return.

Here we go! Will it be the filly or the favorite? Baffert or McGaughey? Rosario or Smith?

This year's Breeders' Cup Classic is more riddle than most in recent years so we turned to the Betmix Angler handicapping database to look for some answers.

Looking at the 10-furlong dirt Grade 1's at Santa Anita since 2012, a span that includes a trio of BC Classics, we found that Last Late Pace has been a good predictor.

Over one third of the contenders ranking first in this factor have emerged with a trophy sparking a very generous Win Return of $43.40. Among the winners are Classic champs Arrogate ($5.40) and Mucho Macho Man ($10.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Paceslider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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