Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Pedigree Handicapping – Grade 1 Sires

There are over 60 North American Grade 1 races set for the last five months of 2018, including signature events at the Saratoga, Del Mar, Arlington and Keeneland Fall meetings. So what better time to look at how the progeny of North America's top sires have fared in races at the highest level. The charts below show the progeny performances of the Top 25 sires on the 2018 General Sires list with a minimum of 35 Grade 1 starters since January 1, 2012.

Quality Road has rocketed to elite sire status over the past 18 months and his progeny have helped handicappers as well as owners and breeders. The Lane's End Farm stallion is the current leader with four Grade 1 winners in 2018 and his progeny rank first by Grade 1 Win % (26%) and In the Money % (56%). His success for bettors is further accentuated by his robust Win Return of $100.90 that ranks second only to Medgalia d'Oro (whose figure is boosted tremendously by last year's 66-1 Breeders' Cup F & M Sprint heroine Bar of Gold).

Harlan's Holiday is also worth a mention as his sons and daughters are winless in Grade 1 competition over the past 4-plus years. That's a bit of surprise for the sire of previous standouts like Into Mischief, Majesticperfection and Eclipse Champion Shanghai Bobby. The late sire's last crop are 4-year-olds of 2018.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button

Grade 1 Sires by Win % (all surfaces, minimum 35 G1 starters since January 1, 2012)

Grade 1 Sires by Win Return (all surfaces, minimum 35 G1 starters since January 1, 2012)

 

Sharp Angles – Bowling Green Stakes

Bowling Green S. (G2) at Saratoga
11F on Turf (July 28)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 18 Saratoga grass stakes at 11-12 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Trainer Current Year
Factor Stats: 31 contenders, 9 winners (29%, $37.20 flat win bet profit, 160 ROI%), 15 win/place (48%, $18.20 flat place bet return)

There are more high profile stakes races this weekend across North America than Saratoga's Bowling Green Stakes. But with with many of those races having drawn short fields or prohibitive favorites we pointed the Betmix Angler handicapping software toward the Bowling Green, which fields nine evenly-matched turf marathoners.

The Trainer Current Year factor has pointed nine winners of 11-12 furlong grass stakes at Saratoga over the past few years. The sample includes the last three Bowling Green winners: Hunter O'Riley ($34.60) last year, Flintshire ($2.20) in 2016 and Red Rifle who paid $15.40 to his backers in 2015.

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Pedigree Handicapping – Saratoga Dirt Sires

The 40-day Saratoga meeting is perhaps the most challenging puzzle for handicappers to decipher each year. Betmix was built for the challenge and the ability to mine sire data is just one of the powerful ways Betmix users can get an edge over the general wagering public.

Click here for Del Mar Sire Stats

The chart below shows the top 20 national sires by 2017 runners and the top 10 New York sires, ranked by Win Return on the Saratoga main course since 2012.

Perennial leading sire Speightstown took down the 2004 Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) en route to Eclipse Award honors as Champion Sprinter. His progeny have similarly excelled at Saratoga showing a robust $49.50 Win return, tops in our sample.

The late NY sire Disco Rico leads the way among the Empire State stallions with a 21% progeny Win % as well as positive Win & Place returns.

The progeny of Ghostzapper are definitely worth an extra look at the 2018 Saratoga meeting. His sons and daughters won at a nearly 25% clip over the past six years and have hit the board a remarkable 60% of the time while showing healthy Win, Place & Show returns.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button

Pedigree Handicapping – Del Mar Dirt Sires

Here we go! The boutique summer racing season kicks off on Wednesday, July 18 when Del Mar opens its gates. In our continuing effort to provide Betmix users unique handicapping data we dove into some sire performance trends for the seaside track.

Click here for Saratoga Sire Stats

The chart below shows the top 20 national sires by 2017 runners and the top 10 California sires, ranked by Win Return on the Del Mar dirt course.

With a limited sample Stay Thirsty leads the way with a $68.40 Win Return. The Travers/Cigar Mile winner stood his first season in California in 2018 and it will be interesting to see how his numbers hold up when his Cal-bred crops hit the races in the coming years.

California veteran sire Tribal Rule shows a much larger sample and his $27.20 Win Return indicates his runners should be given extra consideration.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button


Sharp Angles – Suburban Handicap

Suburban H. (G2) at Belmont Park
10F on Dirt (July 7)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 10 Belmont Park Dirt Stakes at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked Average Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 4 winners (40%, $15.50 flat win bet profit, 177 ROI%), 6 place/show (60%)

The Suburban Handicap (G2) is one of the older stakes events in North America. Saturday's 132nd running has attracted a field of 11 and, with the help of the Betmix Angler handicapping software, we can narrow zero in on the likely winner.

The Average Speed Last 3 factor has pointed a quartet of 10-furlong stakes winners at Belmont Park over the past few years. Among those is Effinex, the two-time Suburban winner, who paid $15.60 in 2015 and $6.30 the following year.

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Sharp Angles – Ohio Derby

Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown
9F on Dirt (June 23)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 7 dirt stakes for 3YOs going 9 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Purse Rank
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 6 winners (33%, $10.40 flat win bet profit, 128 ROI%), 10 place/show (55%, $6.00 place bet profit)

Saturday's Ohio Derby (G3) is the highlight of the Ohio thoroughbred racing calendar. The race regained it's graded status last year and this year's 12-horse field promises to be a boon for track management and handicappers alike. Luckily, the Betmix Angler handicapping software can provide some insight to bettors ready to tackle the challenge.

Last Purse Rank
has pointed to the last two Ohio Derby heroes - Irap ($7.60) and Mo Tom ($4.20) - as well the winners of four other 9 furlong sophomore stakes at the suburban Cleveland track.

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Sharp Angles – Wise Dan S.

Wise Dan S. (G2) at Churchill Downs
8.5F on Turf (June 16)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 48 middle distance turf stakes at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Year
Factor Stats: 60 contenders, 15 winners (25%, $121.40 flat win bet profit, 229 ROI%), 23 win/place ($32.70 place bet profit)

The second half of the thoroughbred racing season kicks off (unofficially) with Saturday night's Stephen Foster program at Churchill Downs. This year's card has drawn deep and competitive fields for all five stakes contests, including the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes.

Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we discovered that Trainer Current Year has pointed to the winners of 13 of the past 40 turf stakes run at 8 or 8.5 furlongs under the Twin Spires. The sample includes Pleuven, the $17.20 winner of last year's Wise Dan.

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Pedigree Handicapping – Belmont Dirt Sires

The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival has quickly emerged as one of the most compelling racing and handicapping weekends of the year. With 10 of the 15 stakes events contested on the main track, we used the Sire Analysis feature within Betmix Angler to look at the progeny of all stallions with starters in the Festival dirt stakes. Full results are shown below, sorted by Win Return. An additional chart with the qualifying stallions listed alphabetically is provided for reference below that.

There are four runners by 2007 Belmont Stakes runner-up Curlin this weekend and they certainly merit extra consideration based on this data. Over one quarter of Curlin's Belmont main track runners have found the winner's circle and at a fantastic $134.10 Win Return. Among those is his first crop star Palace Malice, who won the 2013 Belmont Stakes at nearly 14-1 and returned to take the 2012 Met Mile as the $1.35-1 favorite.

To search Betmix Angler for sire progeny data for any race type:
Open Betmix Angler>Set Race Conditions>Click Expand Horses & Sires>Type in Sire Name>Click Search>Click Off Box>Click Start Search Button

Alphabetical Listing:

Pedigree Handicapping – Turf Sprint Sires

Late last year we took a look at the progeny performance of the leading 2017 Turf Sires from a handicapping perspective.

This time we'll be a little more specific and delve into the data for Turf Sprints (grass races under 7.5 furlongs). We started with the top 25 sires by 2018 turf starts and then analyzed the progeny performance of those sires in all Turf Springs from January 1, 2017 to May 30, 2018. The chart immediately below shows that Scat Daddy and Broken Vow have been the most profitable sires over the past 17 months.

The late Scat Daddy is better known to racing fans as the sire of Triple Crown hopeful Justify, but breeders know him as an extremely versatile sire. His Win Return has been buoyed by eight winners paying $20 or more, ranging in class from Grade 3 winner Mr. Roary (2017 Eddie D. Stakes at 22-1) to the $92 Maiden Claimer winner Escarpela.

Broken Vow ranks second by Win Return but lands on top by Win % and in second again by In the Money %. These stats make his runners in Turf Sprints worth a long look.

 

 

To access Sire information, click Expand Horses & Sires within Betmix Angler.

Sharp Angles – Gold Cup at Santa Anita

Gold Cup at Santa Anita
10F on Dirt (May 26)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 13 Santa Anita dirt Graded Stakes at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 6 winners (46%, $51.40 flat win bet profit, 297 ROI%, 10 place/show $17.00 place bet profit & $7.90 show bet profit)

The historic Hollywood Gold Cup moved east to Santa Anita Park in 2014 where it remains one of four 10-furlong dirt Grade 1's for older horses in North America. With the Santa Anita Handicap among the others (along with the Breeders' Cup Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup) a pretty good sample size has accumulated for this specific condition over the past few years. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we find that a very strong predictive factor has emerged as well.

Last Late Pace has pointed to the winners of nearly half of the the past 13 Gold Cup/Big 'Cap winners and over three quarters have hit the board. As shown above, the win, place and show flat bet profits are all juicy and the winner's sample includes 2015 Gold Cup hero Hard Aces ($17.80 to win) and this year's Big 'Cap winner Accelerate ($7.00).

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