Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Question of the Week – BirdDog

Handicapping Blog

Q: Can I make BirdDog open up using the last 100 races as the default?

A: Yes!  We recently made some changes to BirdDog that allow you to pick the number of past races that are used to compile the statistics for each of the handicapping factors.  You can choose to use the last 200, 100, 40, 20 or 10 most recent races.  By default BirdDog will open up a hew race using the last 40 races since that is most similar to what we showed in the past. If you want to change your default race number all you have to do is click on the options button then select the number of races you want, then click save. After that every race you open will use that number as the default setting.

Step 1: Click on the options button in BirdDog

Step 2: Pick the number of races you want as the default, then click save.


 

Have a question about the Betmix handicapping software? Email Dave - dave@betmix.com

Sharp Angles – Travers Stakes

Handicapping Blog

Travers Stakes
10F on dirt (August 26)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 9 Grade 1's for three-year-olds at 10F on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 3 winners (33%, $31.60 flat win bet profit, 275 ROI% & $5.30 flat place bet profit)

It makes intuitive sense that late runners should excel at the American classic distance of a mile and a quarter. One of the many advantages of using handicapping software like Betmix is the ability to move theory into reality. We know by using Betmix Angler that two of the last four Travers winners (and a recent Alabama Stakes winner) have ranked first in Last Late Pace. Both of the Travers winners paid double digits and would later be named Eclipse Champions - Will Take Charge the $21.20 winner in 2013 and Arrogate who paid $25.40 last year, a payout that looks especially absurd with the benefit of hindsight.

Results: Good Samaritan 5th at $3.85-1

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

NEW! Better BirdDog Statistics

Handicapping Blog
At the core of almost everything in BetMix are the statistics about handicapping factors. When you are handicapping a 6 furlong dirt claiming race at Saratoga which factors are the most important?  When you know that you start to build mixes, angles, etc.  We use those stats to rank the horses in the Handicapping Overview section and in numerous other areas.
In the past we ranked the factors based on the stats for the last 40 similar races. The problem with that was that if you wanted to handicap a race from last week, last month or 2 years ago the statistics would be based on the 40 most recent races. We did that assuming everything should be forward looking based on the most recent information available. But, that is not always ideal.  When you want to back test your handicapping ideas you should only be looking at the data as it existed at the time the race occurred and it should never change. In addition, you might want to look at more or less than 40 races worth of data to rank the factors.Our new BirdDog update makes all of that possible.

By default, when you open a race the factors will be ranked using data for the last 40 similar races.  With the click of a button you can change that to 200, 100, 40, 20 or 10 races.

Sometimes its better to use a very large sample of data, other times you might want to just consider the 10 most recent races.  You can learn a lot by comparing data for the last 100 races to data from the last 10.

This short video will give you some more information on how to use the new and improved factor stats options.

Sharp Angles – Albany Stakes

Handicapping Blog

Albany Stakes
9F on dirt (August 25)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 (non-graded) stakes for three-year-olds at 9F on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 6 winners (40%, $11.80 flat win bet profit, 139 ROI%)

A day before they try to sort out the open three-year-old male division in the Travers Stakes, the New York-bred sophomores square off in the Albany Stakes. Including the race named for New York's capital, there have been 14 main track non-graded stakes for three-year-olds at The Spa since 2013. Last E2 Pace has pointed to the winners of six of those contests including recent Albany winners So Lonesome ($20.80) and Hit It Once More ($3.90).

Results: D'yer Mak'er 5th at 37.25-1

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angles – Del Mar Oaks

Handicapping Blog

Sharp Angle - Saturday, August 18
Del Mar Oaks (G1)
9 furlongs on turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 12 graded stakes for 3yos at 9 furlongs on turf at Del Mar
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 5 winners (31%, $43.80 flat win bet profit, 236 ROI% and a $3.80 flat place profit)

Arrogate may be the headliner of Saturday's Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar, but the 14-horse Del Mar Oaks offers a superb betting opportunity. Analyzing the horse racing data in Betmix Angler for 3yo graded races on the Del Mar grass course shows that Last E1 Pace has been a lucrative approach. The five winners from 15 contenders include two Oaks heroines - Discreet Marq ($11.40) in 2013 and Personal Diary ($20.20) a year later.

Results: Beau Recall, 2nd by a nose at $5.40-1

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Track of the Week – Arlington Park

Handicapping Blog

It's hard to believe that it's been 35 years since John Henry nosed out The Bart in the inaugural Arlington Million at our Track of the Week, Arlington Park. While the suburban Chicago track faces more challenges today than it did three decades ago, Million Day remains a major event on the Chicago sports calendar. This week we'll parse some data and highlight some Angles to help formulate plays for the four Million weekend cards.

Sharp Angle - Saturday, August 12
Beverly D. Stakes (G1).
9.5 furlongs on turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 Stakes at 9.5 furlongs on turf at Arlington
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Late Pace 
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 5 winners (33%, $26.60 flat win bet profit, 188 ROI%), 11 in the money (73%, $10.00 flat place bet profit & $10.10 flat show bet profit)

The Beverly D. Stakes has drawn a Breeders' Cup-worthy field this year and it's just as competitive at the windows. With a 73% in-the-money rate and two of the past three Beverly D. heroines represented (including $19.80 winner Watsdachances) this Sharp Angle is an ideal starting point in handicapping the race.

Results: 1st Dacita paying $15.80

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

This week's other Angles:

Since Aug 1, 2016, for 1-Mile Turf Claiming races at Arlington Park:

Single Factor Angle: Horses 1st in Average Speed last 3 have won 19 of 49 races (38.7%)

Since June 1, for Turf Sprints at Arlington Park:

Single Factor Angle: Horses ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3 have won 8 of 25 races (32%)
Multiple Factor Angle: Horses ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3 & Top 4 in Turf Pedigree Rating have won 8 of 20 races (40%)

Track of the Week – Mountaineer Park

Handicapping Blog

They've been racing at Mountaineer Park, this week's Betmix Track of the Week, since 1951. On Saturday afternoon the track will host it's biggest day of the season with a seven stakes card highlighted by the $750,000 West Virginia Derby (G2). Leading up to Saturday there are a trio of weeknight cards. See below for tips and Angles that can be applied to the Free Race of the Day.

Sharp Angle - Saturday, August 5
West Virginia Derby (G1).
9F on dirt
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last four runnings of the West Virginia Derby
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle (multi-factor): Ranked Top 3 in Average E2 Pace & Top 3 in Average Last 3 Race Class
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 4 winners (44%, $4.60 flat win bet profit, 125 ROI%)

The West Virginia Derby has been 'chalky' the past four years with an average win payout of just $5.65. But the multiple factor angle presented here has found all four recent winners and points to a 2017 contender who will pay considerably more.

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Other Angles four Mountaineer Park:

Since June 1, for non-Maiden Dirt Sprints at Mountaineer Park

Single Factor Angle: Horses ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of last 3 Speed have won 42 of 113 races (37%)
Multiple Factor Angle: Horses ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of last 3 Speed & 1st Avg. Last 3 Race Classes are 19 for 36 (53%)

Click here to visit the BirdDog handicapping software Free Race of the Day page and use the Factor Statistics sliders to rank the factors shown above.

Since June 1, for non-Maiden Dirt Routes at Mountaineer Park

Single Factor Angle: Horses ranked 1st in Last Race Class have won 21 of 54 races (34%)
Multiple Factor Angle: Horses ranked 1st in Last Race Class & 1st in Trainer/Jock combo win % are 8 for 13 (61%)

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

 

Track of the Week – Monmouth Park

Handicapping Blog

It's Haskell weekend at Monmouth Park, our track of the week. See below for some Angles that can help you play the historic Jersey Shore track via the Free Race of the Day page.

Sharp Angle - Sunday, July 30
Haskell Invitational (G1).
9F on dirt
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 11 stakes for three-year-olds at 8.32-9F on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Lifetime Speed
Factor Stats: 23 contenders, 11 winners (47%, $21.20 flat win bet profit, 146 ROI%), 60% 1st or 2nd ($6.80 flat place bet profit, 114 ROI%)

Top-figure horses are always dangerous but are often overbet. Betmix Angler data shows that Best Lifetime Speed has indeed been a predictably good predictor of success in the three-year-old dirt stakes at Monmouth Park. The data also shows these horses tend to pay reasonably well. In addition, the past three Haskell winners have all ranked first in Best Lifetime Speed, returning $7.20 (Exaggerator), $2.20 (American Pharoah) and $11.40 (Bayern).

Results: Girvin (1st at $9.20-1) & Timeline (5th at $1.90-1)

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Sharp Angle - Saturday, July 29
Lamplighter S.
8.5F on turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 11 stakes for three-year-olds at 8/8.5F on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Turf Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 7 winners (41%, $77.60 flat win bet profit, 328 ROI%), 65% in-the-money ($7.00 flat show profit, 120 ROI%)

It makes sense that Turf Pedigree ranking would be a strong predictor in turf stakes. This is especially true for younger horses like the mid-year three-year-olds contesting the Lamplighter S. The massive $77 flat win bet profit certainly indicates this factor is one to be taken seriously.

Results: Mo Maverick (1st at $1.00-1) & Harlan Strong (3rd at $12.30-1)

Click here to visit the BirdDog handicapping software Free Race of the Day page and use the Factor Statistics sliders to rank the factor shown above.

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Friday, July 28 
7th Race at Monmouth Park
Allowance
8.32 furlongs on the dirt

Since June 1, for non Maiden Dirt Route Races at Monmouth

Single Factor Angle: Horses ranked 1st in Trainer Current Year have won 14 of 30 races (47%)
Multiple Factor Angle: Horses ranked 1st in Trainer Current Year and ranked 1st or 2nd in Best Lifetime Speed are 12 for 20 (60%)

Single Factor results: Spring For More (1st at $3.20-1) & Twofour Six Oh One (3rd at $4.30-1)
Multiple Factor results: Spring For More (1st at $3.20-1)

Click here to visit the BirdDog handicapping software Free Race of the Day page and use the Factor Statistics sliders to rank the factors shown above.

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Best Factors for Saratoga

Handicapping Blog

July 21 is opening day at Saratoga! Let's take a look at the best 2 factor combinations using data over the last 3 years.

In our previous post for Del Mar stats, we looked at the best single factor for each race. At Saratoga we are going to use a combination of 2 factors for each race type.

The more factors you use in an Angle, the more accurate it will be, but if you use too many you run the risk of creating an Angle that rarely returns a result.

Think about it this way.  In every non-maiden race there is going to be a horse that is ranked 1st in Speed Last Race.  There may also be ties, so you could have 2 or 3 horses with the same speed score in their last race.  If that was the only factor you were using in your Angle, then it would find at least one horse in every race.

If you add another factor you start reducing the results.  If your Angle says a horse must be ranked 1st in Speed Last Race & ranked in the top 4 for Trainer Current Year, then it is very possible that you wont find a match - the horse ranked 1st in Speed Last Race may be ranked 6th in Trainer Current Year.  The more conditions you add the fewer results you will get. You need to find that "sweet spot".  You certainly want to use more than one factor in your Angles, but if you use too many you may be creating a very accurate angle, but it will very rarely find a matching horse.

In this table below we have some good 2 factor combos to use for races at Saratoga.  There is also a short videoto show you how to create an Angle and demonstrate how the results get narrowed when you add more conditions to your angles.

Best factors for Saratoga last 3 years
Dirt Sprint (Less than 8F)
Race Class Best Factor Combinations Races Win Win% Profit
Mdn Clm
Ranked 1st Speed Last Race & Top 4 in Avg Lifetime Earnings
 56 18 32.10 $8.50
Mdn Sp Wt Ranked 1st Last Purse & Top 2 in Speed Last Race 123 30 24.30 $8.50
Claiming Ranked 1st Speed Last Race & Last Race finish position 1-4 113 34 30.00 $39.20
Allowance Won Last Race & Top 2 in Trainer Current Year 83 14 16.80 $44.30
Stake 1st or 2nd in Last Race & Top 4 in Avg Speed Last 3 18 14 77.00 $19.40
Graded Stake Won Last Race & Top 6 in Speed Last Race 43 39 90.70 $87.80
Dirt Route (8F and greater)
Race Class Best Factor Races Win Win% Profit
Mdn Clm Ranked 1st Trainer Current Meet & Top 4 in Lifetime Earnings 6 4 66.60 $34.40
Mdn Sp Wt Ranked 1st Last Late Pace and Top 4 Trainer Current Meet 13 5 38.50 $39.60
Claiming Ranked 1st Jockey current Year & Top 4 Avg Lifetime Earnings 34 13 38.20 $37.40
Allowance Ranked 1st Last Purse & Top 5 in Dirt Pedigree Rating 44 18 40.10 $56.50
Stake Ranked 1st in Last Purse & Top 5 in Avg E2 Pace 24 10 41.70 $21.40
Graded Stake Won last race & Ranked Top 4 in Win % 24 13 54.20 $24.50
Turf Sprint (Less than 8F)
Race Class Best Factor Races Win Win% Profit
Mdn Clm Top 3 in Jockey Current Year & Top 7 in Turf Earnings 19 14 52.6 $44.40
Mdn Sp Wt Ranked 1st in Turf Earnings & Top 2 In The Money % 56 13 23.20 $14.90
Claiming Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Year & Top 6 Jockey Current Year 32 9 28.10 $24.90
Allowance Won last race & Ranked Top 6 in Win % 59 24 40.70 $43.80
Stake Ranked 1st in Avg Late Pace & Top 4 in Avg Best 2 of 3 Speed 22 10 45.40 $37.00
Turf Route (8F and greater)
Race Class Best Factor Races Win Win% Profit
Mdn Clm Ranked 1st Speed Last Race & Top 2 in Avg Turf Earnings 57 13 22.80 $16.80
Mdn Sp Wt Ranked 1st in Last Purse & Top 4 in Best Lifetime Speed 89 28 31.00 $32.60
Claiming Ranked 1st Avg Last 3 Race Classes & Ranked 1st Speed Last Race 74 8 12.00 $6.40
Allowance Ranked 1st Trainer Current Year & Days since last race < 90 165 39 23.60 $115.00
Stake Ranked 1st in Last Purse & Top 7 in Avg Turf Earnings 40 17 42.50 $24.60
Graded Stake Ranked 1st in Last Purse & Top 5 in Best Speed Turf 42 18 42.80 $52.70

What does this data mean?
Take a look at the table above and find the section for Turf Route Races. Then, look for Allowance races. We can see that there were 165 allowance races run on the turf at a mile or over, and the best factor combination was being ranked 1st in Trainer Current Year and having run within the last 90 days.  If you bet $2 to win on every horse at Saratoga that met those conditions over the last 3 years you would have made a profit of $115.

Using this information in BetMix
There are several ways to use this in BetMix. You could create a mix for each race type that used the best factor for each race, you could simply look at the factor stats in BirdDog to identify the top ranked horse for each factor, or you could create Angles that identify the horses for you. This quick video below will show you how to create an Angle using multiple factors.  Its easy to do, and when you run your angles for the day you will always know where the best betting opportunities are.
Get started with your own angles today at Betmix.

Best Factors For Del Mar

Handicapping Blog
July 19 is opening day at Del Mar, and to kick it off we are going to look at the best factors for different race types at the track.

This data is based on the last 2 years of racing at Del Mar and is broken down by Dirt/Turf, Sprint/Route and Race Class.When looking at this table keep in mind that some race types are pretty uncommon at Del Mar (only 5 Mdn Sp Wt Turf Sprints) so the best factor information for those types of races will be less reliable than common race types like Claiming Dirt Sprints (138 races).

This information should be used as a starting point for your handicapping and give you a good head start on creating some profitable angles at Del Mar.

Best factors for Del Mar last 2 years
Dirt Sprint (Less than 8F)
Race Class Best Factor Races Win Win% Profit/Loss
Mdn Clm Best Speed Last 3 145 45 31.00 $20.00
Mdn Sp Wt Avg Late Pace 102 24 23.30 $2.20
Claiming Avg Best 2 of 3 Speed 138 51 33.80 $90.60
Allowance Won Last Race 62 23 37.00 $163.00
Stake In the Money % 23 14 60.80 $12.40
Graded Stake Best Speed Last 3 16 8 50.00 $8.20
Dirt Route (8F and greater)
Race Class Best Factor Races Win Win% Profit/Loss
Mdn Clm Lifetime Earnings 31 10 32.20 $23.40
Mdn Sp Wt Jockey Current Year 16 6 37.50 $8.20
Claiming Speed Last Race 67 24 35.80 $30.40
Allowance Best Speed Last 3 40 19 47.50 $33.60
Stake Trainer Current Year 7 4 57.10 $72.40
Graded Stake Avg Last 3 Purse 13 7 53.80 $11.20
Turf Sprint (Less than 8F)
Race Class Best Factor Races Win Win% Profit/Loss
Mdn Clm N/A
Mdn Sp Wt Distance Worked 5 3 60.00 $97.40
Claiming Distance Worked 10 4 40.00 $20.00
Allowance Speed Last Race 49 17 34.60 $63.60
Stake TurF Earnings 4 2 50.00 $16.40
Graded Stake N/A
Turf Route (8F and greater)
Race Class Best Factor Races Win Win% Profit/Loss
Mdn Clm AVG Speed Last 3 10 3 30.00 $25.20
Mdn Sp Wt AVG Best 2 of 3 Speed 70 22 31.40 $35.00
Claiming Avg Earnings Track 50 15 30.00 $56.20
Allowance Avg Laste Pace 105 23 21.90 $69.20
Stake Won Last Race 22 9 40.90 $23.20
Graded Stake Last Race Class 33 15 45.40 $39.60


What does this data mean?
Take a look at the table above and find the section for Turf Route Races. Then, look for Graded Stakes. We can see that there were 33 Graded turf route races over the last 2 years, and the best factor was Last Race Class. Horses ranked 1st in Last Race Class won 15 of the 33 races and if you would have bet $2 to win on every horse ranked 1st in Last Race Class you would have made a profit of $39.60. Keep in mind that there could be ties in factors, so there may be 2 horses ranked 1st in Last Race Class in a given race so you would have to bet them both.

Using this information in BetMix
There are several ways to use this in BetMix. You could create a mix for each race type that used the best factor for each race, you could simply look at the factor stats in BirdDog to identify the top ranked horse for each factor, or you could create Angles that identify the horses for you. This quick video below will show you how to create an Angle for a factor.  Its easy to do and when you run your angles for the day you will always know where the best betting opportunities are.
We will send out similar information for Saratoga later this week.  Get started with your own angles today at Betmix.