Lexington S. (G3) at Keeneland
8.5F on Dirt (April 13, 2019)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 8.5F Graded Stakes for 3-year-olds at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Earnings Today's Distance
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 5 winners (38%, $18.60 flat win bet return, 171 ROI%), 7 win/place (53% $6.90 flat place bet return)
We'll know the final top 20 (U. S.) Kentucky Derby points leaders by the end of the day on Saturday. The Arkansas Derby offers the most Derby qualifying points but a couple runners are looking to sneak into the Derby starting gate via the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. The race has drawn an evenly matched field of 10.
Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we isolated a factor that's pointed to three of the past four Lexington winners. That factor is Average Earnings Today's Distance, which has highlighted winners in 2015 (Divining Rod/$7.80), 2017 (Senior Investment/$24.20) along with 2018 hero My Boy Jack ($3.20). The latter made it into the Derby field with his victory, subsequently running 5th to Justify at Churchill.