10F on Tapeta at Woodbine (July 2)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 12 stakes at 10 furlongs on all weather
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. of Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 15 contenders, 4 winners (27%, $41.30 flat win bet profit, 237 ROI%), 67% in-the-money ($2.00 flat show profit, 106 ROI%)
Canada’s Derby Day is Sunday, July 2 when the Queen’s Plate is run for 158th time. The perception in ten furlong Classics like this is that off-the-pace & stamina types fare best. This is especially true in contests over all-weather surfaces, which often play like turf races. However, a Betmix Angler analysis of 10-furlong stakes over the Woodbine main course shows that early speed is the place to start when handicapping these race types.
Ten of the last 15 contenders (67%) who ranked first in Average of Last 3 E1 Pace have hit the board 10-furlong stakes over Woodbine’s Polytrack/Tapeta surfaces. Four of them have found the winner’s circle, including Midnight Aria, the $35.20 hero of the 2013 Queen’s Plate.
How to apply this Sharp Angle:
Under Factor Ranking in the Betmix Birddog handicapping software, use the Avg. of Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Last Sharp Angles result - Courtly Manner 7th at $9.30-1 in Bold Ruckus S.