Pedigree Handicapping – 2021 Juvenile Sires

The 2021 juvenile racing season officially came to a close when the ball dropped on New Year´ s Eve. With the data finalized, we took the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for a spin to see if we could gain any insights for the 2022 season.

Gun Runner burst on the scene as a potentially important sire for breeders and Angler tells us he ranks first among all of the 2021 Top 25 Juvenile Sires (by progeny earnings) in terms of Win %.

As the chart below indicates, a little over 23% of the starts by his first crop runners resulted in a winner´ s circle pictures.

Just a few percentage points behind Gun Runner in this category is leading second crop sire Not This Time, who topped this category in 2020 with a 23.4% clip. So with two full seasons of juvenile racing data, it is safe to say that Not This Time 2-year-old runners deserve an extra long look.

What was surprising looking at the 2021 numbers was the dearth of sires generating flat bet profits. In 2021, only the Cairo Prince juveniles showed a positive Win Return ($57.30). This compared with 2020 when a quartet of stallions showed a flat Win bet profit, led by Not This Time ($82.50).