Pedigree Handicapping – Saratoga 2YO Sires

After 150 years, Saratoga is making history yet again with an eight-week meeting that begins earlier than ever on July 11.

What's been constant at The Spa, at least in the modern era, is an abundance of high-quality juvenile racing. Trainers & pedigree, particularly sires, are the two most important factors in handicapping these races and Betmix has a wealth of data on both.

For this post we queried the Betmix Angler database for sire performance in all 2-year-old races at Saratoga since 2012. The chart below contains figures for over 40 of the most relevant stallions, including five based in the Empire State and whose runners will have to be considered in the many heats restricted to New York-breds.

In fact, perennial leading New York sire Freud (a full brother to the great Giant's Causeway) leads our sample in terms of Win Return ($47.80).

A pair of Kentucky stallions, both based at WinStar Farm, follow. 20% of Speightstown's juveniles have won at Saratoga over the past six seasons, returning a healthy $42.20 to bettors. Two-time Breeders' Cup Classic champ Tiznow now never raced at the upstate New York oval but he's the sire of a pair of Hopeful Stakes winners in the past 5 years. Strong Mandate ($16.60) romped by nearly lengths in 2013 while Sporting Chance ($13.40) swerved his way to victory four years later. Tiznow is one also of four stallions on this chart whose progeny have hit the board at a 60% or better clip.

With a 64% In the Money percentage, Quality Road, is among the others. He's also the clear leader in Win % as his juvenile progeny at The Spa have had their pictures takes at 27% rate.