Lexington S. (G3) at 8.5F on Dirt (April 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 25 8.5F Graded dirt Stakes for 3YOs at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Purse
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 5 winners (16%, $20.60 Win Return, 134 ROI%), 11 Place (36%, $5.20 Place Return), 15 Show (50%)
Last call for Kentucky Derby points! That will be the underlying theme when the bugler beckons 10 sophomore colts postward for the Lexington Stakes on Saturday afternoon at Keeneland.
It's been an exceptionally competitive Derby prep season, as evidenced by the fact that 45 qualifying points doesn't guarantee a spot in the 2024 Run for the Roses. Horseplayers face yet another handicapping challenge with this Lexington field so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for insights.
Angler shows us that the Avg. Last 3 Purse handicapping factor has produced good results in the 8.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at Keeneland, pointing to 16% winners who have produced a $20.60 Win Return. The sample includes 3 of the past 6 Lexington winners - Senior Investment (the $24.20 winner in 2017), My Boy Jack ($5/2018) and King Fury ($38.40/2021).
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Purse slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
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