Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup First Look

Betmix Angler was introduced over the summer and has lived up the hype. It’s an extremely powerful handicapping tool, but one that does require a bit of trial and error to yielded consistent results. We’re kicking off a new blog series called Sharp Angles that will put the focus on some winning angles we’ve discovered by using Angler. By highlighting profitable angles, and the methodology behind them, we hope to advance the overall Angler understanding so that Betmix users can more effectively apply this important tool to their own handicapping challenges.

In three weeks time, the purple and gold Breeders Cup colors will adorn Santa Anita for the fourth time this decade. Two Breeders’ Cup contests, the Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile, are uniquely configured at the SoCal track so we’ve put those races in the Sharp Angles spotlight first.

turf-sprintBreeders' Cup Turf Sprint - 6.5 furlongs on the hillside turf course
Races Analyzed: 25 Graded Stakes races (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 14, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Finish Position Rank
Factor Stats: Has won 11 of the 25 races (44%) for $106.80 Win ROI

This sample includes a $20-plus winner in each of the past three years - 2014 Las Cienegas Stakes heroine Tribal Spy, 2015 San Simeon Stakes winner Get Happy Mister ($27.20) and Holy Lute ($23.40) winner of a division of the Eddie D. Stakes on the opening day card of this year's fall meeting. Sharp form recent form does appear to be key in these ‘down the hill’ Graded events. We find that Speed Last Race has also been predictive, having been the winning factor in 9 of the 25 races (36%) and showing a $79 Win ROI.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - 8 furlongs on the main track (around two turns)
Races Analyzed: 6 Grade 1 races (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Miles)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 14, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: Has won all 6 races (100%) for $25.6 Win ROI

This is obviously a small sample size and a relatively small ROI but it’s hard to argue with perfection. A look at some additional data also suggests this angle is on very solid ground. First of all, opening up the search to all Graded races at the mile distance would increase the sample by two more races and yield two more winners. Second, it does appear that ‘home track advantage’ is a strong indicator in this race type as Average Earnings Today’s Track (66%/$11 ROI) and Trainer Current Meet (66%/$12 ROI) are the next two winningest factors.

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