Clark Handicap (G1) & Falls City H. (G2)
9 furlongs on the dirt at Churchill Downs
Races Analyzed: 7 Churchill Downs G1’s for older males at 9 furlongs on the dirt &
18 Churchill Downs Graded races at 9 furlongs on the dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st or 2nd in Speed last Race
Factor Stats: Has won 5 of the 7 Grade 1 races for older males (71%/ROI%-590) or 9 of 18 Graded dirt races (50%/ROI%-766)
Effinex over Hoppertunity & Looks to Spare (inside) in 2015 Clark Handicap
Speed Last race has been predictive for the top class older male events under the Twin Spires. Last year’s Clark winner Effinex ($7.40) ranked first in this factor as did 2015 Stephen Foster H. conqueror Noble Bird ($11.40). Three more winners are revealed when setting the Speed Last Race slider to show horses ranking 1st or 2nd. That group includes the 2016 Stephen Foster upsetter Bradester ($20.40) and the 2013 and 2014 Clark winners, Will Take Charge ($6.80) and Hoppertunity ($6.40).
Speed Last Race can also be applied to the G2 Falls City Handicap for fillies & mares, the Thanksgiving Day feature in Louisville. Expanding our analysis to all 9 furlong Graded races on the dirt, we find that half of the 18 races were won by runners ranking 1st or 2nd in Speed Last race for a nifty $106.40 Win ROI. This grouping includes Frivolous, winner of the 2014 Falls City at a $40.80 mutuel. That filly ranked 1st in Speed Last Race.
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