Louisville S. (G3)
12F on Turf (June 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 12 Churchill Downs graded turf stakes at 12F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 5 winners (41%, $12.60 Win Bet Return, 152 ROI%), 8 place/show (66%, 3.80 Place Bet Return)
Turf marathons are often difficult for handicappers to process given the prevalence of sprint/speed-oriented racing in North America.
With the 12-furlong Louisville Stakes on the Churchill Downs lawn on tap for Saturday we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for clues to success in this endangered race type.
Not surprisingly there have been only 12 turf stakes careded going the 12 furlong distance under the Twin Spires, but Angler revealed that Speed Last Race has been predictive in this small sample.
Over one-third of the contenders have factored in the trifecta with over 40% cashing for the win. Even more compelling is the fact that four of the past six Louisville S. winners have ranked first in this handicapping factor.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Speed Last Race slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.