Tag Archives: Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Sharp Angles – Turf Dash Stakes

December 28, 2016Handicapping BlogTampa Bay Downs, Thoroughbred Betting, Thoroughbred Handicapping, Thoroughbred Horse Racing, Turf Dash StakesMatt O

Turf Dash S. on December 31
5F on the turf at Tampa Bay Downs
Races Analyzed: 9 turf stakes at 5F on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 9 overall qualifying horses; 4 winners (44%, 626 ROI% & $94 flat bet profit/$2) & 6 total win/place/show (66%, 313 ROI%)

The $100,000 Turf Dash Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday may not be the most talked about race this New Year’s weekend, but it just might be the most attractive contest from a wagering perspective.

It’s not a complete shock to find that early speed does well in 5 furlong races of any kind. But part of the power of Betmix is to parse the data with tremendous objective clarity. In this case we know that four of the past nine (44%) turf stakes run at this distance over the Tampa lawn have been won by the horse ranking first in Last E1 Pace (the fastest horse in the early part of the race). What Betmix Angler users also know is that these contenders have largely been ignored at the betting windows by the general public, going off at an average of over 14-1 odds. All four of the winners have paid double digits, including the most recent winner of this race, Fast Flying Rumor ($24.80) and the $63 winner Double Secret (2015 Lightning City Stakes).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Danzatrice ($8.40) & Include Betty both qualified, they ran 1-2 for a $17.80 exacta

Want to look for your own angles?

Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial.

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BetMix Tip – PaceCast

May 5, 2016Handicapping BlogBetmix, Thoroughbred Betting, Thoroughbred Handicapping, Thoroughbred Horse RacingMatt O

We've added a neat new tool to BirdDog that lets you see how a race should unfold based on pace factors.

Its real easy to use, just click on the "Play All" button and you will see a simulation of the race looking at E1 (early), E2 (middle) and Late pace factors. Its a great way to see who might be on the lead early, and who should be running late.

This widget is found in BirdDog, to add it to your screen just click on the options icon and then select "BetMix PaceCast".

The simulation in PaceCast is based on several pace and speed factors for the race type you are handicapping.

Here's a quick video that explains PaceCast:

Give it a try now: BirdDog Free Race of the day

Betmix Tip – BirdDog For Beginners

April 5, 2016Handicapping BlogBetmix, BirdDog, Thoroughbred Betting, Thoroughbred Handicapping, Thoroughbred Horse RacingMatt O

BirdDog can provide you with all the handicapping information and tools you would ever want to see. Or, you can ease your way into it with some basic information that is very powerful. We added a new widget to BirdDog that will appeal to new users and experts. It's called "Handicapping Overview" and it provides you with some very accurate handicapping without having to do a thing. Give it a try using the free BirdDog race of the day, or watch the video at the bottom of this email for more info.

Quick Handicapping Buttons

Top 10 - Uses a weighted blend of the 10 most important factors for the race type
Win% - Uses a weighted blend of the factors with the best win percentages
Hit The Board - Uses factors that predict high percentage of horses that ran 1, 2 or 3
Blend - Uses a mix of factors from each category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, etc.)
Longshot - Uses a mix based on factors with high win ROI numbers.
Overall Rankings - Uses the ideal setting from Overall Rankings. This is based on the setting that predicted the most exactas within the top 4 ranked horses of the sample of similar races.

FACTOR GROUPS

These rankings will give you an idea of how the horses rank within each category using a weighted mix of the factors within that group. Factors that are more highly ranked within the group will be given more weight. You can click on the buttons the represent each factor to see the mix used.

SCORE & BIRDDOG
The "Score" rankings are based on ranking the horses using the default factors in the main horse table: Last Finish Position, Lengths Beaten, Speed Last Race and Class Difference. The score rankings are computed by looking at each horse's rank within each of those factors.

The "BirdDog" rankings use the top 10 factors from the BirdDog table. This table looks at a large number of similar races with the same amount of starters as the race you are looking at. If you are handicapping a 6f dirt claiming race with 8 starters, the BirdDog stats will be based on a large group of races that were 6f dirt with exactly 8 starters. The BirdDog table lets you see how often a horse wins when ranked at a certain position. The BirdDog ranks takes the 10 best factors for the race type and computes a score from that.

COMBINED RANKINGS
The combined results of all of the rankings (Quick Handicapping, Factor Groups, Score & BirdDog)

If you are already using BirdDog you can add this widget to your screen by selecting options and then selecting the Handicapping Overview check box: