Tag Archives: Tampa Bay Downs

Sharp Angles – Sam F. Davis S.

Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
8.5F on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs (February 11)
Races Analyzed: 8 graded stakes for 3YO colts at 8.5 furlongs on dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 11 qualifying horses, 4 winners (36%, $30.60 flat bet win profit, ROI% of 239), 6 win/place (54%, $9.4 flat bet place profit, ROI% of 142.7)

The 2017 Kentucky Derby trail winds through Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, February 11 with the 38th edition of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). The Davis is run at the same 8.5F distance on the main track as the upcoming Tampa Bay Derby (G2) so the last four runnings of each fixture constitutes our eight-race group.

It’s a small sample but one that has yielded very good and very specific success in this very race. Ranking first in Win % has pointed to three of the past four Sam Davis winners: 2015 champ Ocean Knight ($5.20), 2014 winner Vinceremos ($26.80) and Falling Sky ($17.80) who triumphed by a neck in 2013. We’ll certainly take those double-digit payoffs.

Last Sharp Angles results: Classic Empire, 3rd at .50-1 in Holy Bull Stakes

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Sharp Angles – Turf Dash Stakes

Turf Dash S. on December 31
5F on the turf at Tampa Bay Downs
Races Analyzed: 9 turf stakes at 5F on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 9 overall qualifying horses; 4 winners (44%, 626 ROI% & $94 flat bet profit/$2) & 6 total win/place/show (66%, 313 ROI%)

The $100,000 Turf Dash Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday may not be the most talked about race this New Year’s weekend, but it just might be the most attractive contest from a wagering perspective.

Horse racing at Tampa Bay Downs 2012 - 2013 season. @Al Messerschmidt 727 938 2442

It’s not a complete shock to find that early speed does well in 5 furlong races of any kind. But part of the power of Betmix is to parse the data with tremendous objective clarity. In this case we know that four of the past nine (44%) turf stakes run at this distance over the Tampa lawn have been won by the horse ranking first in Last E1 Pace (the fastest horse in the early part of the race). What Betmix Angler users also know is that these contenders have largely been ignored at the betting windows by the general public, going off at an average of over 14-1 odds. All four of the winners have paid double digits, including the most recent winner of this race, Fast Flying Rumor ($24.80) and the $63 winner Double Secret (2015 Lightning City Stakes).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Danzatrice ($8.40) & Include Betty both qualified, they ran 1-2 for a $17.80 exacta

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