April 25, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
Horses are aimed to fire at Keeneland, and may not produce as well immediately after.
Background:
With Keeneland ending Friday, horseplayers will be posed with a choice to make upon their reappearances. Do you trust the form, or expect a decline after a premier, boutique meet?
Data Points:
I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all April/May/June starters nationally the past 5 seasons following a Keeneland Spring Meet. Specifically, how did Keeneland runners directly exiting that meet fair in their next start? I also looked at favorites exiting Keeneland whether the public’s trust in the meet performers was warranted.
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Keeneland alumni won 13.5% in maiden claiming-level races in their next starts with a $0.64 ROI on every $1 bet. {13.2%, $0.77 for all non-Kee runners}.
Keeneland alumni won 14.0% in maiden special weight-level races in their next starts with a $0.72 ROI on every $1 bet. {13.0%, $0.71 for all non-Kee runners}
Keeneland alumni won 17.9% in claiming-level races in their next starts with a $0.83 ROI on every $1 bet. {13.8%, $0.76 for all non-Kee runners}
Keeneland alumni won 14.9% in allowance-level races in their next starts with a $0.78 ROI on every $1 bet. {14.2%, $0.76 for all non-Kee runners}
Keeneland alumni won 15.5% in stakes-level races in their next starts with a $1.02 ROI on every $1 bet. {12.9%, $0.77 for all non-Kee runners}
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Keeneland alumni won 42.4% as maiden claiming favorites in their next starts with a $0.97 ROI for every $1 bet. {39.8%, $0.86 for all non-Kee favorites}
Keeneland alumni won 39.7% as maiden special weight favorites in their next starts with a $0.86 ROI for every $1 bet. {38.3%, $0.81 for all non-Kee favorites}
Keeneland alumni won 43.9% as claiming favorites in their next starts with a $0.98 ROI for every $1 bet. {37.4%, $0.83 for all non-Kee favorites}
Keeneland alumni won 36.5% as allowance favorites in their next starts with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet. {38.2%, $0.85 for all non-Kee favorites}
Keeneland alumni won 35.7% as stakes favorites in their next starts with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet. {41.6%, $0.77 for all non-Kee favorites}
Bottom line:
Keeneland alumni won at a higher percentage at all 5 class levels from 0.3% to 4.1% in span. The Keeneland alumni were more reliable winning favorites in maiden claiming, maiden special weight and claiming races, but not as reliable as allowance or stakes favorites next time. Overall, it’s clear that the Keeneland horses perform better than the general population next out, but the public’s misfires on favorites in higher-profile races appears to be the source of the reputation that Keeneland horses are aimed for that meet and vulnerable next out.
Additional details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out how the Keeneland alumni performed by specific tracks you follow.