August 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
Having a prep over the track is advantageous in the Travers.
Background:
Saturday’s Midsummer Derby is upon us, and horses converging for the Travers will have had preps across the country and at Saratoga. Is there a local edge for those coming out of races like the Jim Dandy, Curlin or Spa allowances?
Data Points:
I dialed up the Betmix database to look the last 9 Travers editions held in the traditional timeslot, eliminating the 2020 COVID year when it was earlier in the meet and prior to the Kentucky Derby. This produced 101 starters, of which I evaluated the win, place and show percentages of those who prepped locally and those that did not, as well as the $1 ROI on such bets.
//
Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 3-for-55 to win (5.45%) with a $0.59 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 7-for-55 to place (12.73%) with a $0.58 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 10-for-55 to show (18.18%) with a $0.42 ROI.
//
Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 6-for-46 to win (13.04%) with a $1.13 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 11-for-46 to place (23.91%) with a $0.94 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 17-for-46 to show (36.96%) with a $0.97 ROI.
Bottom line:
It’s the horse who DID NOT prep at Saratoga that have had a strong advantage in the Travers since 2013. Despite fewer starters, they produced twice the winners and nearly double up the successful percentage at all levels of finishing in the money. The ROI is significantly higher backing the ship-ins as well. It’s categorically false in recent years to apply any advantage in the Travers to those who last prepped there.
Additional details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which tracks have had the most success as prep locales for the Travers and more.