All posts by Dave Williams

A few new Betmix tools and features

June 11, 2014Handicapping BlogDave Williams

New Betmix tools and features to help you win more races!

Hope everyone had a profitable Triple Crown season!

We've added a few new features that we hope you will find helpful:

Color Coded Running Lines
When you bring up the Horse Information Box (Click on the horse's name) you will now see running lines. We have color coded them to help you easily see the running style of the horse. The colors are displayed in shades of: RED (Far back), YELLOW (Mid pack) and GREEN (On the lead).
Here is an example of a classic "Closer", as the colors in the running lines go from Red to Green."
Closer running style horse racing

This horse is a typical "Front runner" who is on or near the lead throughout the race
FrontRunner

New Tools for Scoring Mixes
When you test or create a Mix in Race Results or Test My Report you are now able to see the profit, number of wins and win %. You will find this useful when you are creating a Mix since you can now build your mixes to find the highest ROI or the most Winners in a particular category. If you are looking at a sample of 15 races you may find that the most profitable Mix returned a profit of $50 on win bets, but it only picked 3 winners who paid around $25 each, or you may decide to go with the most consistent Mix that picked 9 winners who were shorter prices and returned a profit of $30. As you know, there are several strategies for building Mixes and many users have started creating several Mixes for each race type. One Mix may focus on finding the most winners, another on potential longshots, and yet another to find the most Trifectas. Depending on how you like to bet, you should create multiple Mixes tailored to the types of bets you make.

Here is an example of a Mix for 6f dirt Claiming races at Finger Lakes. Looking at the last 25 races that were run under those conditions the top ranked horse ran at least 3rd in 24 out of 25 races. The one race that it did not run 3rd was a field of only 4 horses, so there was no show betting! It ran second in that race (05/27). The profit for making a show bet on those 25 races is not enormous, but if you are Show bettor or are looking for a Key horse in your Trifectas or Supers, this would be a good place to start. If you are interested in adding this Mix to your saved mixes it can be found in the MixLibrary and is called " Finger Lakes 6f Dirt Clm"
Results
MixMaker Results added
In the past when using MixMaker to help you build a Mix you had to click a button to find the race results and then manually enter that information. Now the information for the top 3 horses is added automatically. You can also see the finish position for each horse in the race which helps when you go to "tweak" the mix.
NewMixMaker

We hope that you all find these new features to be useful and that they help you cash more tickets. We have several exciting new features in the works and will continue to work towards making Betmix the most accurate and easy to use handicapping software available!

What is class in horse racing?

May 22, 2014Handicapping BlogDave Williams

How to use Class in handicapping horse races

We've added 4 new factors to Betmix in the last couple of days: Last Race Class, Avg. Last 3 Race Classes, Days Since Last Race and Last Finish Position.Before we get into details on the Class factors, let's take a step back and think about what a Mix in Betmix actually is, and how you go about building one.

When trying to explain Betmix and how it works to new users I often use a cooking analogy. Its sometimes easier for people to understand the concept if they look at the factors as ingredients, and the Mix they create as a recipe. Each factor that you use in your mix would be similar to the items that go into a recipe and the value that you assign to those factors would be the amount of the ingredient you use. Some factors would be considered main ingredients, and others would be spices. If you are not using the right ingredients in the correct amounts, your recipe will not turn out too well. In addition your recipe may be greatly improved by adding a few spices. But, if you add too many different spices or pour in the whole bottle of hot sauce you could easily mess the whole thing up.That may be an over simplification of how Betmix actually works, but for most people its easier to grasp that concept than it is to understand normalized variable multiple regression equations. Right?

The ingredients you would use to bake a cake are going to be different than the ingredients you would use to make a pot of Burgoo. Just like the factors you choose to handicap a 5F turf race are going to be different than the factors you would use to handicap the Kentucky Derby.

A great chef needs to have a wide range of ingredients and spices, and a great handicapper needs to consider as many factors as possible. Both the Chef and the Handicapper have to use the right ingredients in the right amounts in different situations.

CLASS

If you get a group of 5 handicappers together you are probably going to get 5 different definitions of what class really means. Is it the purse value of the races the horse has been running in? Is it the competition at the racetrack? Is an allowance race at Saratoga always better than an allowance race at Parx? Some handicappers are convinced that Class is the key to beating the races, while others don't place much importance on it at all.We created a class rating for every race in our database. In order to define the class of the race we looked at every horse in that race, how fast they had run recently and during their careers, what kind of races they had been running in recently, and how much money they have been earning. The smallest component of our class rating was the purse value of the race. We wanted to know how "Classy" the race was based on the quality of the horses in the race, not just the venue or the purse value. We found out some interesting things. Looking at the recent Keeneland meet, most people would say that the $750,000 Blue Grass stakes (G1) was the "Classiest" race at the meet. But looking at the overall quality of horses in each race and what they had actually accomplished in their careers it was the only the 6th "classiest" race at Keeneland this spring.

So how predictive are the Class factors? Used individually they may not be as predictive as the Class handicappers would argue. Just because a horse came out of the toughest race last time out, it doesn't mean that he will run better today. But, when you look at the Class Factors as a "Spice" and use them in combination with other "Main Ingredients" they can make your mix more predictive. Last Race Class in combination with recency (Last Finish Position and Days Since Last Race) is a much more predictive mix than using any of those metrics as single factors.

As you begin to use the new factors in your mixes you will notice that they are more predictive in certain race types and at certain race tracks then they are in others. The bottom line is that in most mixes (or recipes) Class is going to be a spice and not a main ingredient. The Class factors will absolutely make your Mixes more accurate, but don't ruin the Burgoo!

Betmix FAQ

March 20, 2014Help/FAQsDave Williams

How much does a Betmix membership cost?
For only $50 per month, you can have full and complete access to all of the races and handicapping tools offered by BetMix. Yearly subscriptions are $500 (a $100 savings), and a daily pass is $8. Monthly and yearly subscribers have the ability to access our historic race database, making it easy to test your saved mixes against previously run races. Monthly and Yearly subscribers also have access to MixMaker, MixLibrary, All Races Report, Create/Test My Report and Race Results. The $8 Daily Pass gives you 24 hr access to all tracks and races currently running and the ability to save mixes. The Daily Pass does not give you access to the historical race database, MixMaker, MixLibrary or All Races Report. More information can be found here Membership Options.

What makes BETMIX better than any other handicapping site?
BETMIX possesses the most advanced and easiest handicapping software with more options and analytic power than any other program currently available. With 40 sliders each representing ranking power for a specific handicapping factor, BETMIX gives you the power to choose not only what is important to you, but lets you determine HOW IMPORTANT it is in your decision. Once you create a MIX you can save and name that MIX, and apply it to any race with similar conditions (Subscribers only) and test that MIX against previously run races to see how accurate your MIX is.

What do the various factors mean?
Click on each factor's name and you will see a brief description of what it is. For a more detailed explanation please visit the Handicapping Factors page.

How much weight should I assign to each factor?
That is entirely up to you. Each user will have their own idea about how important a particular factor is in a race. It is important to remember that certain factors will have a bigger impact depending on what type of race you are handicapping. Obviously, Turf Pedigree would not be turned on for a dirt race, and the Lifetime earnings factors would not mater much in a maiden race. For those looking to get started with a MIX, here are some settings for a TURF RACE:

SPEED
Best Lifetime Speed Number: 8
Best Speed Number at today's track: 2
Best Speed Turf: 8
Best Speed Fast Track: 0
Best Speed Distance: 6
Best Speed Last 3: 0
Avg. Speed Last 3: 0
Avg. Best 2 of Last 3: 10

PACE
Last E1 Pace: 0
Last E2 Pace: 0
Last Turn Time: 0
Avg of Last 3 E1 Pace: 0
Avg of Last 3 E2 Pace: 0
Avg of Last 3 Turn Time: 0
Last late Pace: 0
Avg of Last 3 Late Pace: 6

EARNINGS
Horses Beaten: 8
Avg. Earnings Today's Distance: 3
Avg. Earnings Today's Track: 2
Avg. Turf Earnings: 8
Avg. All Weather Earnings: 0
Avg. Off Track Earnings: 0
Avg. Lifetime Earnings: 5

TRAINER/JOCKEY
Trainer Current Meet: 4
Jockey Current Meet: 2
Trainer Current Year: 8
Jockey Current Year: 4

PEDIGREE
Dirt Pedigree Rating: 0
Mud Pedigree Rating: 0
Turf Pedigree Rating: 9
Distance Pedigree Rating: 7

What do the Green and Red arrows mean?
There are two columns in the results S and F and you may see a green or red arrow within that column.

The arrows were put in place to give you an idea of the horse's form.

A Green Up Arrow under the S column means the last three races have shown consecutive improvements in speed numbers. Example: (100, 92, 90) for last three races with the 100 being the most recent race.

A Red Down Arrow under the S column means the last three races have shown consecutive declines in speed numbers. Example: (90,92,98) for last three races with the 90 being the most recent race.

A Green Up Arrow under the F column means the last three races have shown consecutive improvements in finish position. Example: (3rd, 5th, 7th) for last three races with 3rd being the most recent race.

A Red Down Arrow under the F column means the last three races have shown consecutive declines in finish position.. Example: (5th, 3rd, 2nd) for last three races with the 5th being the most recent race.

Horse Racing Results Data

March 5, 2014Handicapping BlogDave Williams

In order to test your Mixes or create new Mixes, you need to test them against historical results. We have a couple of ways for you to do that....

RACE RESULTS
When you look at the race results page, you can select a date and track, and then see the results for races on that day. You can test any of your saved mixes to see how profitable they would have been, or you can create mixes using the results as a guide.

The results box shows you what would have happened if you bet $2 win, place and show on your top ranked horse, and if you boxed the top 3 ranked horses in a $1 exacta and the top 4 in a $1 Trifecta.

You can see from the above results that the mix we used for that day would have returned a profit on Win, Place, Show and Exacta bets and a loss on Trifecta bets. As you change the factors you are using in your mix or give more or less weight to a particular factor you are using, the results box will update instantly. You can also apply any saved mix you have to the results and they will update. This is useful if you are the type of handicapper that uses the same mix for each race type.

If you design your Mixes for specific race types, then you will want to use the My Race Report tool. There you can select a group of similar races using the search features. So, for example, if you wanted to see how well your Mix did on the past fifteen 7F dirt Claiming races at Gulfstream Park you could do that by searching for those races, and then adding them to a report.

Once you have found a group of races that you want to use in the results, you can click each race to add it to your report. You give that report a name, then save it, and you can then test it using the results data for those races.

Now, using a group of similar races, you can create a very accurate Mix for predicting the winners of 7F Dirt Claiming races at Gulfstream Park.

For more information on how to use horse racing results data to win more bets watch this tutorial video.

Horse Race Search

December 30, 2013Handicapping BlogDave Williams

Find any race in the Betmix database

We've added a neat new tool to Betmix called RACE SEARCH. Using this tool you can search our entire database to find any race. Search by date, track, post time, surface, race type, distance, age/sex, purse or claiming price.

The results will display a list of all matching races - clicking on any race will open it up in MixMaker where you can create a mix or test your existing mixes on similar race types.

RaceSearch
Using the Race Search feature will improve your mixes tremendously, and allow you to build very specific mixes for any track or race type. If you have created a 'super mix' for 1 mile turf allowance races, then just search for matching races running today and you will have a short list of races to bet on. This is an enormously helpful tool and we hope you take advantage of all it has to offer.

The race search tool is one of many exciting new features we will be adding in the coming months, and we cant wait to roll them all out...

Betmix 2.0

December 9, 2013Handicapping BlogDave Williams

Introducing BETMIX 2.0 - The best handicapping software available

We've made some major changes to Betmix.com and are anxious to share them with you. The site has been completely redesigned, and there are many new features to help you handicap with greater accuracy. Here are just a few of the new features we have added...

New Factors, new sliders
We have added several new factors (Speed Last Race, Win %, In the money %, Last Purse, Avg Last 3 Purses, Trainer Jockey Combo win % and Trainer Jock ROI). In the old version of Betmix, the sliders had to be "turned on", they are now "on" by default but will only be used in calculations when they have a value.
NewFactors

We also made major changes to our database structure that will allow us to easily add new factors (we will be adding more soon!) and create new and exciting analysis tools.

New Tools

Winning Factors allows you to find all the previous wins in our database for a particular horse and instantly compares that winning effort to today's race. You can quickly see if today's race sets up in a similar way to the last race the horse won.

Your Mix displays all of the factors you have chosen in a pie chart and provides you with a simple graphic explanation of how the computer is interpreting your mix. By mousing over each pie slice you can see the percentage for each factor and the total number of points you have assigned.

Overall Rankings can now be seen on the main screen as well as by hitting the RANKINGS button so that you can get an instant read on how the horses stack up.

Improved MixMaker

We have greatly improved the artificial intelligence behind MixMaker. Now you can choose to create a mix that puts an emphasis on finding the winner or choose to create a mix that finds the trifecta. The accuracy of MixMaker is much better now, as it has the ability to consider all possible factors in any given race.