King T. Leatherbury S. at Laurel 5.5F on Turf (April 23)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 50 5.5-furlong turf stakes at Laurel Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 56 contenders, 15 winners (26%, $86.20 Win Return 177 ROI%), 20 Place (35%, $9.10 Place Return), 26 Show (46%, $3.10 Show Return)

The Saturday card at Laurel featureS five stakes races, including the King T. Leatherbury Stakes that drew a tough field of 10 turf sprinters.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database was made for difficult handicapping puzzles like this one so we ran a query to find if any handicapping factors have been predictive in this race type. Sure enough, Angler came back with a longshot angle (and play) in the race honoring the most prolific trainer in Maryland racing history.

Angler shows us that Avg. E1 Pace has produced 26% winners of the Laurel 5.5 furlong turf stakes going back 2012 while generating a whopping $86.20 Win Return.

This factor has pointed to quintet of double-digit winners, including 2019 Leatherbury hero Dirty ($13.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

April 18, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Three-year-olds dropping off the Triple Crown trail have a class advantage that wins allowance races.

Background:

With the slew of Triple Crown prep races nearly now all in the books, the successful runners move on to the main events. Those not successful will be seeking out more realistic spots for their gear-up to the rest of their careers, often in allowance races. But are those Triple Crown trail alumni really stockpiled in talent?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all April and May 3-year-old male allowance runners who last raced in a stakes, dating back 5 years to 2017. I wanted to see how successful they were in comparison to horses who were not coming out of the Triple Crown preps when matched up this time of year. I also wanted to see if those allowance horses bet to favoritism exiting the various class levels were any more or less trustworthy.

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April & May 3YOs dropping from stakes to allowance won 16.6% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
April & May 3YOs racing back in repeat allowance attempts won 14.7% with a $0.76 ROI for every $1 bet.
April & May 3YOs rising from maiden special weight to allowance attempts won 16.0% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.

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April & May 3YOs dropping from stakes to allowance won 35.8% as favorites
April & May 3YOs racing back in repeat allowance attempts won 38.8% as favorites.
April & May 3YOs rising from maiden special weight to allowance attempts won 40.0% as favorites.

Bottom line:

Triple Crown trail stakes droppers won at a .6% higher rate in allowance races than maiden risers and 1.9% higher rate than those staying in the allowance ranks for a repeat effort. The Triple Crown trail droppers had an identical ROI to those rising from maiden races and both were $.03 better than allowance repeat runners. In terms of favorites, Triple Crown trail droppers were worst in the survey, 3 full percent below allowance repeaters and 4.2% lower than maiden risers bet to favoritism.

The numbers bear out that the Triple Crown trail class droppers aren’t any more profitable to bet, win at a negligible better rate, but are wrongly over-bet by the public in terms of favorites with the lowest rate.
Overall, the numbers say it’s a myth that the Triple Crown trail class droppers this time of year are strong allowance plays with any sort of advantage.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, sort by tracks and races to see if any particular races historically have been better when its races’ also-rans drop into allowance company.

Lexington S. (G3) at 8.5F on Dirt (April 14)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 49 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 49 contenders, 18 winners (36%, $26.40 Win Return 126 ROI%), 25 Place (51%, $8.20 Place Return), 29 Show (59%)

Last call for Kentucky Derby contenders! That will be the underlying theme when the bugler calls 11 sophomore colts postward for the Lexington Stakes on Saturday afternoon at Keeneland.

It´ s been an exceptionally competitive Derby prep season, as evidenced by the fact that 40 qualifying points doesn´ t guarantee a spot in this year´ s Run for the Roses. Horseplayers face yet another handicapping challenge with this Lexington field so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for insights.

Angler shows us that Avg. Lifetime Earnings has produced good results in this racetype at Keeneland, pointing to 36% winners of the 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes since 2012, while generating a very healthy $26.40 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

April 11, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The Kentucky Derby morning line is a meaningless formality and does not reflect the final odds.

Background:

With the major preps in the books for the May 7 Kentucky Derby, the major focus for horseplayers now will be evaluating which horse at which price will catch their wagering dollar. While the morning line maker Mike Battaglia has been doing it for more than 40 years in the Run for the Roses, there’s still a wide swath of horseplayers critical of the projections and process.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at the last 10 Kentucky Derby renewals and studied the morning line projected odds and the final off odds of its winners.

2012: I’ll Have Another | 12-1 ML, 15-1 off odds
2013: Orb | 7-2 ML, 5-1 off odds
2014: California Chrome | 5-2 ML, 5-2 off odds
2015: American Pharoah | 5-2 ML, 5-2 off odds
2016: Nyquist | 3-1 ML, 2-1 off odds
2017: Always Dreaming | 5-1 ML, 9-2 off odds
2018: Justify | 3 ML, 5-2 off odds
2019: Country House | 30 ML, 65 off odds
**2019: note disqualified winner Maximum Security | 9-2 ML, 9-2 off odds (not counted in our summary)**
2020: Authentic | 8 ML, 8 off odds
2021: Medina Spirit | 15 ML, 12 off odds

Bottom line:

Six times in 10 years, the Kentucky Derby morning line has been within 1 point of its off odds, 7 times within 1-1/2 points, 9 times within 3 points. In two of the “3-point” instances, I’ll Have Another and Medina Spirit were within a single click on the toteboard as the odds posted show from 12-1 to 15-1 in a single increment. The only wild distribution was Country House at 65-1 off odds from his 30-1 morning line, but it’s a rarity to have a Kentucky Derby contender lined at more than 30-1 out of a time-honored respect for connections entering horses in prestigious races and not embarrassing their horse. Right or wrong on that theory, and whether it applied in 2019, is not for data debate. What also is not for debate, based on the data, is the success of the morning line projections Battaglia has put forth. It’s a myth that the Derby morning line is meaningless and does not reflect the actual betting.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, take a look at second, third-place finishers … or morning line favorites … in the Derby and see how they stack up. Do the same for the Preakness or Belmont.

Blue Grass S. (G1) at Keeneland
9F on Dirt (April 9)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 Blue Grass Stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 4 winners (40%, $15.60 Win Return, 178 ROI%), 6 place & show (60%, $3.60 Place Return & $1.30 Show Return)

The Blue Grass Stakes is back to being a Grade 1 and this year´ s field of 12 is certainly worthy of its restored top tier status. Of course, this doesn´ t make things any easier for horseplayers.

We took the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for a spin and found that Last Late Pace has pointed to 4 of the past 9 Blue Grass champs while generating a solid $15.60 Win Return along with plus figures in the Place and Show spots.

Two of those winners, Dance With Fate ($14.80) and Java´ s War ($11.20) came during the "All Weather" era that contributed to the temporary downgrade of the Blue Grass to a Grade 2. However, the last two Blue Grass winners, Art Collector ($6.60) and Essential Quality ($3.00), have also ranked first in this handicapping factor.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix



April 4, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Early season 2-year-old races offer few surprises and the winners are often no secret.

Background:

With April comes the year’s first juvenile tests at tracks like Keeneland, Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Sunland and Turf Paradise traditionally the most prevalent of the baby races. Wesley Ward’s success at Keeneland is widely known as the dominant player in the division.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all April juvenile races since 2015, a total of 155 in all. I wanted to compare the average winning payouts and percentage of winning favorites to these races nationally compared to the general race population, as well as juvenile races run later in the year. Also, I looked at the obvious Wesley Ward factor vs. other juvenile race winners this time of year in April.

Findings:

The average win odds in 2-year-old April races since 2015 has been 3.6-1.
The average win odds in all April races since 2015 has been 4.7-1.
The average win odds of 2-year-old races May-December since 2015 has been 4.8-1.

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The percentage of winning favorites in 2-year-old April races since 2015 has been 46.8%
The percentage of winning favorites in all April races since 2015 has been 36.8%
The percentage of winning favorites in 2-year-old May-December races since 2015 has been 36.5%

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Trainer Wesley Ward’s April 2-year-olds have an average win odds of 0.8-1.
Trainer Wesley Ward’s percentage of winning favorites in 2-year-old April races since 2015 has been 52.1%. Non-Ward favorites win 42.5%

Bottom line:

The numbers speak for themselves in that April juvenile racing is far heavier toward favorites and shorter prices than the rest of the year and the rest of the month’s racing population. Win odds are a full point shorter, and the percentage of winning favorites 10% higher. Even when you factor out the obvious Wesley Ward influence in April, other national favorites still win at a rate about 6% higher than subsequent months and older horses within the same month. This myth is absolutely confirmed that secrets are hard to come by in April 2-year-old races.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which trainers besides Wesley Ward are worth your attention this early in the year with the freshman class?

Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park
9F on Dirt (April 2)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 11 9-furlong graded dirt stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Jockey/Trainer Win % Meet
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 8 winners (66%, $35.20 Win Return, 259 ROI%), 9 place & show (75%, $10.80 Place Return & $4.8 Show Return)

Saturday´ s Florida Derby caps off an exciting 2022 South Florida route to the Kentucky Derby and is one of 10 blacktype races on the Gulfstream Park card.

We took the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for a spin for some Florida Derby insights & trends and found that good team work has paid off.

The Trainer/Jockey Win % Meet handicapping factor has pointed to 8 of the past 11 winners of 9-furlong Gulfstream Park graded dirt stakes for the sophomore set.

The sample includes 6 of the past 9 Florida Derby champs including the double digit winners Maximum Security ($11.60) & Known Agenda ($12.80).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer/Jockey Win % Meet slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix



March 28, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Anyone can run third, fourth or fifth to bottom an exotics ticket.

Background:

Handicappers spend a lot of time trying to tab winners and logical contenders to top their tickets. But they often resign to the refrain that anyone can hit the bottom of the ticket. That’s why you’ll most often see an ‘all’ in the third, fourth and fifth spots of trifectas, superfectas and even super high-5s. A tired horse can plummet through the field; a late-runner can pass tired ones. The bottom of a ticket gets ugly to predict. How ugly? Let’s look at the numbers.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at the average odds of finishers by race placing in all races run in 2022 nationally through March 27. I also wanted to see how longshots 10-1 or more performed in terms of hitting the board to see where they may be most likely to land.

Overall Findings:

4.77-1 average win odds
6.87-1 average place odds
9.48-1 average show odds
11.65-1 Average fourth-place odds
15.11-1 Average fifth-place odds

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10-1+ shots win 3.5%
10-1+ shots finish second 6.4%
10-1+ shots finish third 9.1%

Bottom line:

The numbers suggest the higher the placing, the higher the average odds, with the gap growing the higher up you get – nearly 3.5 points higher for fifth, than fourth, for instance. At each placing, the average odds goes up at least 2.1 points (the narrowest between 1st and 2nd-place finishers). And when looking at longshot prices, it follows suit in that horses 10-1 or more are more likely to finish third than second and second than first. In short, the public does a good job sorting these things out. It may be a stretch to say ‘anything’ can bottom your exotics ticket, but the numbers certainly bear out that the most likely place for the prices improves the further down the finish order.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check these same numbers at your local track or by class of races to see if any are more or less trustworthy to deliver the same results.

Mervin Muniz Memorial H. (G2) at Fair Grounds
9F on Turf (March 26, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 19 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 6 winners (30%, $42.00 Win Return, 205 ROI%), 10 win/place (50%, $19.20 Place Return & $2.90 flat Show Return).

Handicappers are presented with some solid betting opportunities on Saturday´´ s big 8-Stakes card at Fair Grounds.

One potentially lucrative race for horseplayers is the Mervin Muniz Memorial that drew a salty group of nine middle distance turf runners.

We used the Betmix Angler handicapping software to analyze the past 19 9-furlong grass stakes at Fair Grounds and found that Average of Last 3 Turn Time has been a good predictor of success.

Nearly one third of the contenders ranking first in this factor have had their pictures taken while showing a sparkling $40.00 flat win return. Among those are 4 Muniz heroes since 2014 - Skyring ($17.40), Take The Stand ($18), Bricks and Mortar ($2.60) and Factor This ($21).

Want to look for your own Angles?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

March 21, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Fair Grounds’ long stretch can trip up horses trying to navigate extra distance.

Background:

The 1,346-foot Fair Grounds home stretch can seem like an eternity when watching your horse try to hang on to the lead. By the same token, horseplayers often hold out hope longer on late-runners given the additional real estate. But does that demanding stretch run have an impact on horses running longer distances?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all Fair Grounds dirt races over the past 3 years, going back to March 21, 2019. At the most common distance run in both sprints and routes, the idea was to evaluate horses adding distance, staying at the same distance or cutting back distance and chart their success.

Overall Findings:

At 6 furlongs, horses adding distance won 11.3% with an ROI of $0.67 for every $1 bet.
At 6 furlongs, horses returning at the same distance won 14.0% with an ROI of $0.76 for every $1 bet.
At 6 furlongs, horses shortening distance won 12.7% with an ROI of $0.76 for every $1 bet.

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At 1-1/16 miles, horses adding distance won 11.8% with an ROI of $0.52 for every $1 bet.
At 1-1/16 miles, horses returning at the same distance won 16.0% with an ROI of $0.86 for every $1 bet.
At 1-1/16 miles, horses shortening distance won 17.0% with an ROI of $1.09 for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

Horses adding distance had the least success of those racing at both 6 furlongs and at 1-1/16 miles. The win percentage was 1.4-3.7 points less in sprint races and 4.2-5.2 points less in routes. In the same situations, horses adding distance also had the worst ROI when compared to those returning at the same distance or cutting back in distance, 11 cents per runner in sprints and between 34-57 cents less per runner in routes. The initial assumption that the long Fair Grounds’ stretch is difficult on horses stretching out in distance is absolutely confirmed by this data.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which jockeys have the best win percentages with horses making distance moves at Fair Grounds, perhaps finding an edge with the right pairing of horse, situation and rider.