Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs
8.5F on Dirt (February 8)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 14 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Tampa Bay Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Year
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 7 winners (33%, $33.80 flat win bet return, 180 ROI%), 15 win/place/show (71%, $22.60 flat place bet return & $12.00 flat show bet return)

The Sam F. Davis S. has attracted one of the early Kentucky Derby favorites in unbeaten Independence Hall. While he figures to leave the gate as a heavy favorite, we scanned the Betmix Angler database to see if we could find an edge in this race.

We did find that trainers matter in the 8.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at Tampa. Since all of the races in the sample happen to be for colts prepping for the spring classics (the Sam F. Davis & the Tampa Bay Derby) there is some extra confidence.

One-third of the contenders have won, generating a healthy $33.30 Win Return. Over 70% of the contenders have hit the board so the Sharp Angles play can be a great starting point in constructing exotic tickets for the race.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Trainer This Year slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Trainer / Jockey Display and Stats

The main horse table in BirdDog has been updated to show Trainer and Jockey names.

The Trainer or Jockey ranked first in the Trainer 1yr, or Jockey 1yr factors are highlighted in green.

In the factor statistics widget we have added two new tabs: Trainer Stats and Jockey Stats.  This information is also available in the Analyze Button.

Clicking on those tabs will display information about how the trainer or jockey has done in this race type (distance, surface, class) over the last 2 years.

Races - The number of similar races the Trainer or Jock has participated in over the last 2 years.

Win $ - What a flat $2 win bet would have returned over all races.

Place $ - What a flat $2 place bet would have returned over all races.

Show $ - What a flat $2 show bet would have returned over all races.

Win % - Win % in this race type over last 2 years.

Place % - Place % in this race type over last 2 years.

Show % - Show % in this race type over last 2 years.

Avg. Fin - The average finish position of the horse ridden or trained in this race type over the last 2 years.

Avg. Odds - The average off odds of the horse ridden or trained in this race type over the last 2 years.

Avg. Win Odds - The average off odds of horses ridden or trained that won this race type over the last 2 years.

HTB as FAV - When a horse was ranked 1st, 2nd or 3rd in odds (one of the top 3 choices) what % of the time did that horse finish 1, 2 or 3.  This is VERY useful in determining if a trainer or jockey is performing as expected with one of the favored horses.  Are they getting the job done when they should?

HTB not FAV - The opposite of the above stat. When a horse was NOT ranked 1st, 2nd or 3rd in odds (one of the top 3 choices) what % of the time did that horse finish 1, 2 or 3.  This is VERY useful in determining how well a trainer or jockey is performing with horses that are not expected to hit the board.  Are they bringing in longshots?

OTB as FAV - How often the trainer or jockey FAILS to hit the board with horses that are one of the top 3 betting choices.

OTB - Finally, how often the trainer or jockey does not hit the board when not expected to hit the board.

Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream Park
8.5F on Dirt (February 1)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 30 8.5-furlong graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Fast Track
Factor Stats: 34 contenders, 15 winners (44%, $51.00 flat win bet return, 175 ROI%), 28 win/place/show (82%, $1.90 flat place bet return & $8.30 flat show bet return)

The heat gets turned up a little more on the Kentucky Derby trail this weekend with a trio of two-turn graded stakes for sophomore colts, including the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

A query of the Betmix Angler online handicapping databases shows that the Best Speed Fast Track factor has been key in the 8.5 furlong graded dirts stakes at Gulfstream and in the Holy Bull specifically.

Some 44% of contenders ranking first in this factor have won, producing a healthy $51 Win Return. Among the winners are FIVE Holy Bull heroes last decade - Audible ($8.40), Moyhamen ($2.60), Upstart ($6.20), Cairo Prince ($6.20), Itsmyluckyday ($11.40).

What's more is the fact that 83% of the contenders have hit the board, so it surely looks wise to factor this factor into your Holy Bull wagering strategy.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Fast Track slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Pegasus World Cup Inv. (G1)
9F on dirt at Gulfstream Park (January 25)
Races Analyzed: 14 most recent 9F G1 dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 9 winners (50%) $37.20 Win Return, 10 place/show (55%) $7.60 place return

The 4th running of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational became suddenly and unfortunately wide open with the late week defections of Omaha Beach and Spun to Run.

While the race is much less compelling from a fan standpoint it's a now a much more intriguing contest to handicap.

A perusal of the Betmix Angler handicapping database shows that it's been difficult for bettors to make hay in the 9-furlong dirt Grade 1's at Gulfstream Park. There have been only four double-digit win mutuels, capped by Graydar who paid $13.40 for his victory in 2013 when the Pegasus was still the Donn Handicap.

But digging a little deeper we were able to parse out the Win % factor that's hit 50% of the time, often enough to yield a $37.20 Win Return along with a positive Place Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Win% slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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LeComte S.
8.5F on dirt at Fair Grounds (January 16)
Races Analyzed: Last 28 8.5F dirt stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Race Class
Factor Stats: 49 contenders, 9 winners (18%) $237.20 Win Return, 23 place/show (46%) $97.40 place return, $26.60 show return

The Triple Crown trail at Fair Grounds kicks off with the January 16 LeComte Stakes, a race won by a pair of eventual Preakness Stakes heroes last decade (Oxbow in 2013 and War of Will last season).

A scan of the Betmix Angler handicapping software has uncovered a risk/reward factor for this racetype. Last Race Class has pointed to only 17% winners but the $237.20 Win Return, as well as very strong Place & Show Returns, make this Sharp Angle worth a look in what is an especially competitive edition of the LeComte.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Race Class slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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Grade 1 contests generate the most media attention, inside and outside of the thoroughbred industry, making them some of the most fun races to handicap.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping software allows searches by sire and we found some interesting statistics in our surveys of the most profitable Juvenile sires and Turf sires of 2019. We conclude with a look at the the sire of Grade 1 races, with a twist.

With a much smaller sample of top-level races, we performed a two-year scan of sire progeny performance in North American Grade 1's.

Despite only three progeny Grade 1 victories, Darley stallions Hard Spun is the leader with a $101.60 Win Return. All three of his Grade 1 winners paid at least $20 including last spring's Ashland Stakes heroine Out For a Spin, who lit up the tote board with a $106.20 Win payout.

The progeny of More Than Ready appear to be the most reliable in top-tier races over the past two seasons. His sons and daughters have scored in a third of their Grade 1 starts generating positive returns across the board.

We have added a Custom factor tab to BirdDog that will only show the factors that you select.

To add factors to your custom tab just click on the OPTIONS icon on the BirdDog page:

When you are in the options menu click on the drop-down list of custom factors.  Click on any factor you want to see in on your custom tab.

After selecting your factors you will see them in the custom tab in the Factor Statistics view:

Having a view of the factors you use most often can speed up your handicapping and help you quickly spot contenders.

There are several 2019 first year stallions that have breeders excited and a couple of them have been beneficial to handicappers as well.

Tapiture and Constitution rank 1-2 in their sire crop by winners and both showed bettors a positive Win Return in 2019. Summer Front, a first year son of War Front, is also among the six total stallions whose progeny showed a plus Win Return this year. Another first year sire, Competitive Edge, is tops among all sires in our sample by with a 29.58% Win percentage.

The leader among all 2019 juvenile sires with a whopping $239.70 Win Return is Bodemeister. That figure for the 2019 fourth crop stallion was buoyed by Toy Show, a $180 Maiden Claimer victor at Woodbine on December 7 and by Cheermeister, who returned $80.80 to his backers for his October 14 Maiden victory. The former WinStar stallion will stand future seasons in Turkey but bettors may want to pay closer attention to the juveniles he's left behind in North America.

See the chart below for full progeny stats on the most prominent 2-year-old sires of 2019.

In our past couple annual surveys of the most profitable turf sires in North America we were surprised to find a small number of stallions whose progeny have put bettors on the green in the black.

In 2018, for example, only two sires - Quality Road and Giant's Causeway - showed a positive Win Return with their grass runners. As the chart below shows, that figure doubled in 2019 with Stormy Atlantic, his son Get Stormy, Into Mischief and Hard Spun all showing in the plus column.

The chart also shows that Hard Spun had the highest turf Win % and Twirling Candy was tops in In the Money % (42.25%) by a slight margin over Ghostzapper ($45.22).

Sugar Swirl S.
6F on dirt at Gulfstream Park (December 14)
Races Analyzed: Last 36 graded stakes at Gulfstream going 6 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 16 winners (43 %) $55.60.00 Win Return, 25 place/show (67%) $19.80 place return

The Sugar Swirl Stakes for female sprinters is one of a quintet of blacktype races on the December 14 card at Gulfstream Park. An evenly-matched lineup of nine will break from the gate so we turned to the Betmix Angler handicapping database for some help.

We found that In the Money % has pointed to 43% winners who've produced a hefty $55.60 Win Return in graded dirt sprint at the South Florida oval.

What's more is this factor has pointed to the last five Sugar Swirl winners - Dream Pauline ($5.40), Rich Mommy ($27.20), Dearest ($3.20), Best Behavior ($12.20) and Merry Meadow ($7.20).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix