Ack Ack S. (G3)
8F on dirt at Churchill Downs (September 28)
Races Analyzed: Last 20 Churchill Downs 8F dirt stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Races Classes
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 7 winners (33%) $24.40 Win Return, 13 place/show (61%), $1.80 place return, $7.70 show return.

The complexion of the Ack Ack Stakes changed when likely fave Omaha Beach stayed home in California. The race now features a very evenly-matched field of nine middle-distance runners.

We analyzed the past 20 one-mile dirt stakes at Churchill Downs in the Betmix Angler handicapping software and found that Average of Last 3 Race Classes has been highly predictive.

A third of the contenders ranking first in this factor have had their pictures taken and 61% have factored in the trifecta. Among the winners are three recent Ack Ack heroes - Awesome Slew (2017, $3.20), Bradester (2014, $4.40), Pants on Fire (2013, $7.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 Races Classes slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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After a summer of juvenile racing we thought it was a good time to check in on which sires have rewarded handicappers most in the baby races.

We began by using the Betmix Angler handicapping database to examine the sires with at least 30 juvenile starters in North America this year.

Tapiture, a Tapit son standing at famed Darby Dan Farm, has his first 2-year-olds on the track now and he leads all sires in our sample with a Win Return of nearly $100.

He's the sire of six double-digit mutuel winners already. Among those is Axiomo, a Maiden Special winner on the turf at Churchill Downs in June at 45-1 and multiple dirt winner Sky of Hook who paid $25.80 on debut on May 10 and $20.60 when victorious in the July 17 Rick Violette Stakes.

All eyes have been on another first year sire - Triple Crown hero American Pharoah. He's gotten off to a great start for owners, breeders and, as it turns out, bettors too. 20% of his starters have won in North America while producing a $13.80 Win Return.

The chart below shows the full results of the Angler 2-year-old sire data query.

Woodbine Mile
8F on turf at Woodbine (September 14)
Races Analyzed: Last 40 Woodbine 8F turf stkes (3 & up)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 41 contenders, 10 winners (24%) $41.50 Win Return, 24 place/show (58%) , $15.90 place return, $9.10 show return

Got Stormy is the morning line and most assuredly the public choice for Saturday's $1 million Woodbine Mile off a scintillating course-record performance over males in Saratoga's Fourstardave S. (G1) last month.

But she hasn't scared away many competitors and handicappers will have to decide whether to stand with the filly at a short price or focus on one of the other 10 contenders.

The Betmix Angler handicapping software can help with that decision.

We scanned the database and examined the past 40 one-mile turf stakes at Woodbine. We found that a more obscure handicapping factor, Horses Beaten %, has shown nice results in this race type - a $41.50 win return and a 58% in the money percentage along with positive place and show returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Ladies Turf Sprint S.
6.5F on turf at Kentucky Downs (September 7)
Races Analyzed: Last 11 Kentucky Downs 6.5 furlong stakes (3 & up)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%) $26.80 Win Return, 8 place/show (47%)

Huge purses drawing huge fields to contest races over a sprawling European-style course means there are no gimmes for handicappers at Kentucky Downs. Luckily for bettors, there is the Betmix Angler handicapping database.

We used Angler to analyze the recent 6.5 furlong stakes at the Southern Kentucky course with the hope of isolating a positive angle for the 15-horse Ladies Turf Sprint S. that carries a purse of $500,000. Not surprisingly, Angler came through.

The Best Speed Last 3 factor has pointed to 35% winners and a nearly $27 Win Return in the 6.5 furlong stakes for older runners at Kentucky Downs.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Tourist Mile S.
8F on turf at Kentucky Downs (August 31)
Races Analyzed: Last 14 Kentucky Downs 8 furlong stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Turf
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 8 winners (44%), 10 place/show (55%) $5.60 place bet return

America's most unique racecourse, all turf Kentucky Downs, kicks off another season on Saturday, August 31. Fueled by a popular Instant Racing operation purses for the southern Kentucky track routinely draw overflow fields.

The Tourist Mile is a case in point with 14 middle distance turf specialists set to face the starter. It's a good thing the Betmix Angler handicapping database has plenty of info on this race type.

An Angler scan reveals that Best Speed Turf has been predictive in the 8 furlong stakes at Kentucky Downs. In fact, 5 of the past 6 winners of the Tourist Mile S. have ranked first in this factor.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Best Speed Turf slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Travers S. (G1)
10F on dirt at Saratoga (August 24)
Races Analyzed: Last 13 Saratoga 10F dirt graded stakes at Saratoga
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 4 winners (30%), $29.10 win bet return, 211 ROI%, & 6 place/show (46%), $8.00 place return.

They're running the Travers stakes for the 150th time on Saturday, August 24 and it's drawn an extremely evenly matched group of sophomore colts.

A scan of the Betmix Angler handicapping database shows that Last Late Pace has shown a good return in 10-furlong dirt graded stakes at Saratoga. Overall, 30% of the last 13 winners of this race type have ranked first in this factor, including a pair of Travers winners who returned double-digit win mutuels to their backers - Will Take Charge ($21.20) and Arrogate ($25,40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Del Mar Oaks (G1)
9F on turf at Del Mar (August 17)
Races Analyzed: Last 32 Del Mar 9F turf graded stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 39 contenders, 10 winners (25%), $17.20 win bet return, 122 ROI%, & 20 place/show (51%).

A full field of 14 sophomore fillies will fill the starting gate for Saturday's Del Mar Oaks, the 'other' Grade 1 on a fantastic Pacific Classic day card. An ultra competitive contest like this one begged Betmix BirdDog analysis.

The Angler handicapping database shows that runners ranked first in Speed Last Race have won the 9-furlong graded turf stakes at the seaside oval a quarter of the time.

The sample includes last year's Oaks heroine Fatale Bere, who scored at nearly 7-1. Her victory helped up the Win Return figure for this factor to $17.20. Since that win, 3 of 4 subsequent contenders ranked first in this factor have hit the board, including last month's Eddie Read S. winner Bowies Hero ($8.80). So the arrow is pointing decidedly up on this Angle.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Speed Last Race slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Fourstardave S. (G1)
8F on turf at Saratoga (August 10)
Races Analyzed: Last 9 Saratoga 8F turf graded stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 5 winners (55%), $31.00 win bet return, 272 ROI%, & $2.20 place return.

It was a surprise to learn that there have been only 9 graded stakes carded at a flat mile on the turf at Saratoga over the past several years. That figure includes a pair of stakes already at this expanded 2019 meeting and a scan of the Betmix Angler handicapping database was able to quickly find a rapidly emerging Sharp Angle for this race type.

Regal Glory ($6.00) winner of the Lake George S. (G2) on July 19 and Casa Creed ($6.00) hero of last Friday's Hall of Fame S. (G2) both ranked first in Average of Last 3 E1 Pace. This factor has also pointed to 3 recent Fourstardave winners, including last year's champ Voodoo Song, who conquered a quartet of Grade 1 winners at nearly 7-1.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Curlin S. & Jim Dandy S. (G2)
9F at Saratoga (July 26 & July 27)
Races Analyzed: Last 25 3-year-old male dirt stakes, 9F at Saratoga
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 27 contenders, 11 winners (40%), $72 win bet return, 233 ROI%, 15 place/show (55%) $3.20 place return.

The 3-year-old males take center stage at Saratoga this weekend with a pair of Travers preps - the Curlin Stakes on July 26 and the Jim Dandy S. (G2) the following afternoon.

Both heats are contested at 9-furlongs on the Saratoga main track so we queried the Betmix Angler database for handicapping data on this race type. The exercise seems especially important given how inscrutable many of this year's sophomore dirt stakes have been.

We discovered that the Average of Last 3 E2 Pace factor has been pointed to large and consistent payouts. Three recent Jim Dandy heroes have ranked first in this factor, including a big one, Laoban, who broke his maiden in the race at 27-1 in 2016.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average of Last 3 E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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The west coast juvenile scene kicks into high gear with the July 17 opening of Del Mar. Last week, we used the Betmix Angler database to find out which sires' progeny have performed well at Saratoga. This week we look at 2-year-old sire performance where the 'Surf Meets the Turf'.

With an astounding Del Mar juvenile Win Return of $119.20, bettors are advised pay attention to the juvenile starters by the Three Chimneys stallion Sky Mesa. It's true he was represented by a 36-1 in 2015 but five of his seven winners have paid double digits, including another at 21-1 and a $13.80 winner just last year.

Adena SpringsGhostzapper and Gainesway Farms Tapit led all sires with a 29.17% Win %. Ghostzapper also shows a very healthy Win Return of $27.40.

Claiborne Farm's War Front was the In the Money % leader on the Saratoga chart last week and he's tops again here in that category - 67% of his juvenile starters have placed at Del Mar. While he has a negative Win Return at The Spa, he ranks third with a $44.20 figure at Del Mar.

The leader among the California-based sires we surveyed is Tommy Town Thoroughbreds Ministers Wild Cat whose juveniles show a Win Return of $5.40 (but a low Win percentage of 11.39%).