All posts by Matt O

Sharp Angles – Sugar Swirl Stakes

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Sugar Swirl S. (G3)
6 furlongs on the dirt at Gulfstream Park
Races Analyzed: 14 6F graded dirt races
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in In the Money %
Factor Stats: 22 overall qualifying horses; 8 winners (36%, 151 ROI%) & 18 on the board (72%, 105 ROI%)

'15 Sugar Swirl S. winner Best Behavior ($12.20)

'15 Sugar Swirl S. winner Best Behavior ($12.20)

It’s not uncommon for horses to tie atop a given factor ranking, as is the case here where 22 horses across 14 races ranked first in In the Money %. In this instance, however, the angle has proven profitable over the long term even if multiple horses were bet in the same race. And it’s certainly a great starting point for this race type. A horse ranking first in this category has won 57% of the time and finished in the money nearly three quarters of the time.

It obviously makes sense that horses ranking first in In the Money % would continue to run in the money. But Betmix users have the data that confirms the intuition, data that can lead to more confident wagering.

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Sharp Angles – Saturday Stakes at Laurel

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Howard M. Bender Memorial S.
Willa On the Move S.
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 44 6F dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey ROI Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 10 of 44 races (23%, 102.7 ROI%)
Or: Won/placed in 29 of 44 races (66%, 109.9 ROI%)

laurelThe folks at Laurel are doing their best to help racing fans and horseplayers chase away the winter blues with a four-stakes card on Saturday, December 10. Two of the stakes are for older sprinters going 6 furlongs on the main track - the Howard M. Bender Memorial S. for males and the Willa on the Move S. for the distaffers. As noted above, Trainer/Jockey team success has been a very good predictor in this race type with 66% of the horses ranking first in this factor contributing to the exacta. The 10 winners are pretty evenly distributed between males (6) and females (4) so this angle can be safely applied to both of the Saturday stakes. The angle also has recency on it’s side. Among the winners are a pair of early 2016 stakes winners in Karen’s Silk ($8 winner of the January 16 Marshua S.) and Sweet on Smokey (winner of the January 2 What a Summer S. at a $6.60 mutuel).

Last week’s Sharp Angle result: Haybusa One, 4th in Hollywood Derby at 4.60-1.

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Sharp Angles – Hollywood Derby

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Hollywood Derby (G1)
9 furlongs on the turf at Del Mar
Races Analyzed: 9 Del Mar G1’s 9 furlongs on the turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer Current Meet
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 9 races (44%), 269% ROI

With Hollywood Park now transforming into the home of the Los Angeles Rams, the December 3 Hollywood Derby will be run for the third time over the Del Mar turf course at 9 furlongs. Three of the four winners in this 9 furlong grassy G1 winner sample have paid double digits with 2014 Del Mar Oaks winner Personal Diary (pictured) showing the highest mutuel. That filly paid $20.20 when she crossed the wire first for trainer Victoria Oliver.

personal_diary_del_mar_oaks_2014_615x400_orig

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Sharp Angles – Clark Handicap & Falls City Handicap

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Clark Handicap (G1) & Falls City H. (G2)
9 furlongs on the dirt at Churchill Downs
Races Analyzed: 7 Churchill Downs G1’s for older males at 9 furlongs on the dirt &
18 Churchill Downs Graded races at 9 furlongs on the dirt
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st or 2nd in Speed last Race
Factor Stats: Has won 5 of the 7 Grade 1 races for older males (71%/ROI%-590) or 9 of 18 Graded dirt races (50%/ROI%-766)

effinex-wins-clark-handicap-finish

Effinex over Hoppertunity & Looks to Spare (inside) in 2015 Clark Handicap

Speed Last race has been predictive for the top class older male events under the Twin Spires. Last year’s Clark winner Effinex ($7.40) ranked first in this factor as did 2015 Stephen Foster H. conqueror Noble Bird ($11.40). Three more winners are revealed when setting the Speed Last Race slider to show horses ranking 1st or 2nd. That group includes the 2016 Stephen Foster upsetter Bradester ($20.40) and the 2013 and 2014 Clark winners, Will Take Charge ($6.80) and Hoppertunity ($6.40).

Speed Last Race can also be applied to the G2 Falls City Handicap for fillies & mares, the Thanksgiving Day feature in Louisville. Expanding our analysis to all 9 furlong Graded races on the dirt, we find that half of the 18 races were won by runners ranking 1st or 2nd in Speed Last race for a nifty $106.40 Win ROI. This grouping includes Frivolous, winner of the 2014 Falls City at a $40.80 mutuel. That filly ranked 1st in Speed Last Race.

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Sharp Angles – Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

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Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash (G3)
6 furlongs on the dirt at Laurel
Races Analyzed: 41 Laurel stakes races at 6 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 22 of the 41 races (53%) for $127.80 Win ROI

In it’s heyday the DeFrancis Dash was won by champions like Housebuster, Cherokee Run and Smoke Glacken. The race has had it’s ups and down, along with the Maryland racing industry, but has regained graded status for the 2016 edition. Indeed, a very solid field has gathered for Saturday’s running at Laurel. As noted above, over half of the 6F dirt stakes at Laurel have been won by the horse ranked first in Best Speed Last 3. The large Win ROI is due largely to Zee Bros, who scored in the 2014 De Francis for D. Wayne Lukas at 29-1.

zee-bros-de-francis-dash

Zee Bros, the 29-1 winner of the 2014 Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

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Sharp Angles – Commonwealth Turf Stakes

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After providing some angles for the Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita, we'll continue on looking for angles in weekend stakes races. They're running the Commonwealth Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday, November 12 and we found a very nice angle for that contest.

camelotkitten_closeup_2016americanturf

Camelot Kitten (inside) wins American Turf S.

Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)
(8.5 furlongs on the turf at Churchill Downs)
Races Analyzed: 13 Churchill Downs Graded races at 8.5 furlongs on turf
Date Range: January 1, 2014 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Rating
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 13 races (30%) for $108.80 Win ROI

This factor has yielded two very juicy winners in the past calendar year in Camelot Kitten ($39.40), winner of the American Turf on Derby Day this year, and Isabella Sings ($56.60) who scored in the Mrs. Revere Stakes at Churchill last fall. Both of those winners are straight three-year-olds, as are the runner competing in the Commonwealth Turf.

 

Post Script

The angles presented in the Breeders' Cup Sharp Angles series pointed to a trio of winners on Championship Weekend:

New Money Honey (Ranked 1st In the Money %) won the Juvenile Fillies Turf, paying $15

Beholder (Ranked 1st in Avg. Speed Last 3) won the Distaff, paying $8.60

Arrogate (Ranked 1st in Best Last Speed) won the Classic, paying $5.40

The Distaff/Classic double with the two second choices paid $28.40

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Classic & Distaff

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Classic - 10 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 9 Graded 1 races at 10 furlongs on (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classics)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Last Speed
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 9 races (44%) for $24.40 Win ROI

The last two Santa Anita BC Classic heroes are in this sample - Mucho Macho Man (pictured, $10), the narrow winner in 2013 and Bayern ($14.20) the controversial winner in 2014.

Last Late Pace is another way to look at the Classic. It too has hit at 44% and actually has a higher Win ROI ($57). Bayern falls out with this approach but Mucho Macho Man remains. The real profitability comes courtesy of the double digit winners Melatonin ($34.60 in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap) and Hard Aces ($17.80 in the 2015 Gold Cup at Santa Anita)

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Distaff - 9 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 16 Grade1 races at 9 furlongs on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Distaffs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 8 of the 16 races (50%) for $24.60 Win ROI

A good win percentage but a thin ROI overall. The does include sample include Untapable ($5.20) who won the BC Distaff at Santa Anita as three-year-old in 2014.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Green

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There are four Breeders' Cup races for older runners on the turf. In the first Sharp Angles post we took a look at the Turf Sprint. Today we highlight some potentially profitable factors for the Turf, Mile and Filly & Mare Turf

Turf - 12 furlongs on the turf (starts on downhill course)
Races Analyzed: 7 Graded races at 12 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turfs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 3 of the 7 races (43%) for $18.80 Win ROI

We have a small sample here but this factor highlighted the most recent BC Turf winner at Santa Anita - Main Sequence (pictured), who got past likely 2016 favorite Flintshire at a $14.04 mutuel.

Other ‘speed’ factors like Best Last Speed have also proven profitable in this race type at Santa Anita.

main_sequence_bc_turf_2014_615x400_orig

Mile - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 13 Grade 1 races at 8 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Miles)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 13 races (46%) for $46.40 Win ROI

This factor has pointed to a pair of double digit winners, including Midnight Storm, the $11.20 victor in this summer’s Shoemaker Mile. Wise Dan is also included in the sample for his second Mile score in 2013 ($3.60)

Filly & Mare Turf - 10 furlongs on the turf (starts on downhill course)
Races Analyzed: 8 Graded 1 for fillies/mares at 12 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup F & M Turfs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 8 races (50%) for $19.80 Win ROI

We’d like to see a little higher ROI on an Angle that’s hit at a 50% rate but this factor has produced the last two Breeders’ Cup F & M Turf heroines at Santa Anita - Dank ($5) in 2013 and Dayatthespa ($13) in 2014.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Fast Lane

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In this week’s Sharp Angles post we’ll take a look at the two Breeders’ Cup ‘fast lane’ contests - the Sprint and Filly and Mare Sprint.

Breeders' Cup Sprint - 6 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 6 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for males on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: Has won 2 of the 6 races (33%) for a $39.20 Win ROI

The most relevant sample is pretty small, just six 6F Grade 1's for males at Santa Anita the past three years. However, this factor looks to be an emerging one. 2014 BC Sprint champ (at a $40.20 mutuel) Work All Week (pictured) ranked first in this factor. The most recent winner did too, Santa Anita Sprint Championship conqueror Lord Nelson ($3). Expanding the sample to include Grade 2 6F dirt races for males at the 'Great Race Place' would show another 2016 winner - Kobe's Back, the $7 victor of the Grade 2 Palos Verdes S. on February 7.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - 7 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 6 Santa Anita Graded races for females on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup F & M Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Today's Track
Factor Stats: Has won 3 of the 6 races (50%) for a $15.20 Win ROI

Small sample and small ROI for this one too but this factor has pointed to the last two BC Filly & Mare Sprint winners at Santa Anita - 2013 heroine Groupie Doll ($8) and 2014 winner Judy the Beauty ($8.20). The other winner was Teddy's Promise the $5 winner of the 2013 Santa Monica Stakes.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Baby Races

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Last week we used Betmix Angler to introduce some potentially profitable angles for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile. This time we'll take a look at the four Breeders' Cup races for Juveniles.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies - 8.5 furlongs on the dirt (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 12 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for 2YOs at 8.5F on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Race Class
Factor Stats: Has won 7 of the 12 races (58%) for a $167.80 Win ROI

Santa Anita cards a pair of Grade 1 Breeders' Cup preps for the juvenile set, the Frontrunner for colts and the Chandelier for fillies. Since they are run at the same 8.5F distance as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies we have a decent-sized sample of 12 Grade 1's to analyze in Angler.

The Last Race Class factor pointed to a big one at the 2014 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita- Take Charge Brandi, who scored in the Juvenile Fillies at 61-1. But among the other six winners is Secret Compass, the $23.40 winner of the 2013 Chandelier Stakes and Noted and Quoted, who took this year's edition of that race at a $16.80 mutuel. This angle might be a little stronger for the Juvenile Fillies overall as five of the seven winner are female. The two winning colts in the group are Nyquist and American Pharoah, favored winners of the Frontrunner Stakes in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

takechargebrandikld85_2

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 16 Santa Anita 2YO Turf Stakes (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 16 races (37%) for a $46 Win ROI

The overall win percentage and ROI are a little lower than we'd like to see with this this In the Money % factor. However, it has pointed to three of the past four Santa Anita Breeders Cup Juvenile/Juvenile Fillies Turf winners: 2014 Juvenile Turf victor Hootenanny ($14), 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Lady Eli ($6.80) and 2013 Juvenile Turf hero Outstrip ($14). This angle also has recency going for it as Big Score is among the six winners. That colt took the October 10 Zuma Beach Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths at nearly 5-1.

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