We've added a neat new tool to BirdDog that lets you see how a race should unfold based on pace factors.
Its real easy to use, just click on the "Play All" button and you will see a simulation of the race looking at E1 (early), E2 (middle) and Late pace factors. Its a great way to see who might be on the lead early, and who should be running late.
This widget is found in BirdDog, to add it to your screen just click on the options icon and then select "BetMix PaceCast".
The simulation in PaceCast is based on several pace and speed factors for the race type you are handicapping.
In his racing debut last August, Brody's Cause failed to fire as the 3-1 second choice in a Maiden Special on the Ellis Park turf. After that it didn't take long for the chestnut colt establish himself as one of North America's top juveniles - breaking his Maiden at Churchill Downs, scoring in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) over eventual Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Exaggerator and running a sold third to Nyquist in the subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).
His sophomore season has followed a similar dynamic so far. In the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby he ran an inexplicable seventh as the 2-1 favorite before bouncing back in his next start, a handy Blue Grass Stakes (G1) win on April 9. That victory puts him squarely in the Kentucky Derby/Triple Crown mix.
"Brody's Cause just keeps grinding away," is how Keeneland track announcer called the Blue Grass stretch run.
In fact, Brody's Cause worked out nearly identical trips in both of his Grade 1 victories at Keeneland. In the Breeders' Futurity and in the Blue Grass he was content to settle near the back of the field, hustling in to contention midway around the final turn and sustaining that run to wear down the frontrunners.
Watch the Breeders' Futurity and all the major 2016 Kentucky Derby preps on the Betmix YouTube channel.
Owned by Albaugh Family stable, Betmix subscriber and leading bloodstock agent Steve Castagnola is on the team that helped select Brody's Cause at the 2011 Keeneland September Yearling sale.
There was certainly a lot to like about this $350,000 colt's pedigree. He's a son of Giant's Causeway, a consistent source of top class two-turn runners around the world. There is plenty of class and stamina on the bottom side of the pedigree too. His dam, Sweet Breanna, placed in a pair of Canadian Triple Tiara contests. She is a daughter of Sahm, by Mr. Prospector out the great mare Salsabil, winner of the Epson Oaks and Irish Derby. Sweet Breanna's dam is the Roberto mare Sweet Roberta, runner up to Hall of Famer Go for Wand in the 1989 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).
There is may be a lack of brilliance in this year's sophomore colt crop at present but there are plenty of intriguing runners who have the stamina to get home first in an upcoming Classic. Brody's Cause is one of them and if he has luck on his side it's very easy to envision him draped in a garland of roses or Black-Eyed Susans or carnations.
We've added a few items to the Handicapping overview widget (found in BirdDog) that should make things a bit easier.
There are now check boxes by each section and group. When something is checked it will be part of the consensus score, if it is not checked it will not be used.
We have also updated the MixBot section. You will see the mix for the most recent race, most recent favorite (paid under $6.00), most recent mid-range winner (paid between $6 - $15) and most recent longshot (paid over $15.00)
Take a look at this short video for more information:
On February 12 Creator finished second to a horse named Call the Colonel in a Fair Grounds maiden special, the fifth straight loss of his racing career. Just over two months later the colt is a Grade 1 winner and one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
Creator was able to find the winner's circle in his next outing 15 days later at Oaklawn Park, dominating a maiden special by 7 1/4 lengths after a four wide trip. He was five wide while making up 12 lengths to be third in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 19, setting him up for his impressive April 16 victory in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
"He made a nice run in the end," jockey Ricardo Santana said of Creator's Arkansas Derby trip, three wide between horses in the final turn. "Last time it was 14 horses. Today it was 12 horses. (Trainer) Steve (Asmussen) told me to be patient, be patient, because you're going to have a lot of horse. It worked out—worked out really good. I hope I have the same trip in the Kentucky Derby."
As of the writing, Creator will be among three Tapit colts in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field (along with Mohaymen & Lani). He was purchased by WinStar Farm for $440,000 at the Keeneland September sale and turned over to soon-to-be Hall-of-Famer Steve Asmussen. Creator is the first horse WinStar has ever sent to Asmussen but there was a plan in mind.
"Steve has had a lot of confidence in this horse from the start," said WinStar CEO Elliot Walden after the Arkansas Derby. "He's been a very high-strung horse in the beginning. I liked what Steve had done with some of the Tapits he's had in the past, so that's why we sent Creator to him. ... I love his style. I love the way he's been brought along. I think based on today's performance that he would have a very good (Kentucky Derby) chance."
The gray colt has a very interesting female pedigree, one that suggests stamina. He's out of the mare Morena, a champion in Peru and a group winner at 11 and 12 furlongs in her native land. She was winless after being imported to the U. S. although she did place in five graded stakes (including two at Churchill Downs). Morena is a daughter of the obscure Private Account stallion Privately Held, who's best race was a second in the 11-furlong Meadowlands Endurance Stakes. There is further stamina in the pedigree from sire of Morena's dam, Chartytin, a daughter of 1981 Belmont Stakes winner Summing.
Creator will seek to become the first Derby winner since Monarchos in 2001 to have entered his sophomore season without a victory. Kentucky Derby bettors may be wise to forgive this colt's early career failures and instead view him as a talented runner who is peaking at precisely the right time.
If you are using Birddog, and the Handicapping Overview widget you will see some new information in the MixBot section.
The MixBot is performing a few tasks for you. First of all it will search the database for the most recent similar race. A similar race is one that was run at the same track, surface, distance and class as the one you are handicapping.
Once it finds that race it runs MixMaker to find the best Mix, then comes back and applies that mix to the current race for you. It will then put those rankings in the Handicapping Overview widget for you. The MixBot will then repeat the process, finding the most recent race won by a favorite (winner paid less than $6.00), and finally the most recent race won by a longshot (winner paid more than $15.00).
When you see the same horses showing up in the top spots for all three mix combinations you can be pretty confident in the selection.
Sometimes the most recent race will be the same as the most recent favorite or longshot race - if that happens then you will only see two lines of rankings in the MixBot section.
It's no exaggeration to say that Exaggerator is one of the most consistent colts in this year's three-year-old crop. He won a pair of graded races last year at two and put it all together in his third start at three, a sensational victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 9.
Exaggerator made his racing debut on June 5, 2015 in a 5-furlong Maiden Special at Santa Anita. He finished a non-threatening 5th that day, 9 1/2-lengths behind a horse named Nyquist. For trivia's sake Annie's Candy was the odds-on favorite over the two eventual Kentucky Derby favorites.
Exaggerator went off as the 2-1 choice in his next start, a 6F Maiden Special at Del Mar and got the money by a nose. Trainer Keith Desormeaux then shipped his budding star east for a very gutsy win in the Saratoga Special (G2). Under jockey Junior Alvarado, the colt was bottled up behind three horses at the top of the stretch before bullying his way between rivals to gain the advantage. He still had a fight on his hands as the Todd Pletcher-trained Saratoga Mischief didn't give up easily. Exaggerator prevailed by 3/4-length at the wire.
With Desormeaux's Hall of Fame brother Kent back in the saddle, Exaggerator performed well when stretched out to two turns last fall. He was runner up to Keeneland-loving Brody's Cause in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and 4th to old friend Nyquist in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) before a rich victory in the Delta Jackpot S. (G3) in the Desormeaux's home state of Louisiana.
There were questions about Exaggerator's distance capabilities from fans, handicappers and even his own trainer before his emphatic 9-furlong victory in the Santa Anita Derby. From a pedigree standpoint Classic distances should be within his capabilities. His sire, Curlin, is a two-time Horse of the Year with wins in the Preakness Stakes (G1), Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and Dubai World Cup (G1) on his racing ledger. At stud his scorecard shows runners like Belmont Stakes (G1) champion Palace Malice and 2015 Travers S. (G1) hero Keen Ice.
Although his dam, Dawn Raid, is a granddaughter of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew his female line is slanted more toward speed. In her racing days Dawn Raid set a 5-furlong track record at Woodbine. She's the daughter of a multiple stakes-placed sprinter and sister to Canadian champion Embur's Song, who was best up to 8.5-furlongs. A little further back in the pedigree we find a champion sprinter (Eternal Search) as well as a Queen's Plate winner (Niigon).
In terms of the Kentucky Derby, the main drawback with Exaggerator may be his form cycle. He popped his best race third off a layoff over a sloppy surface he relished. But bettors searching for a safe and consistent horse (likely at a square price in a 20-horse field) could do worse than Exaggerator. It also helps that he's fast and courageous too.
One of the great things about the new BirdDog interface is that it will allow us to add all sorts of new tools (called widgets). You can click on the options button to pick the ones that you want to see. You can also drag them around your screen to places that you want them. When you are happy with your layout click the Options button again and hit the "Save Layout Button."
We just added a new widget called "Class Analysis". You will notice that the horse display pop-up has also changed to show you the Class rating of each previous race in the horse's PP line.
There is a new column called "Class Rtg." in the pop-up that tells you the class level of each previous race. If it is Green that means it was a "Higher Class" race than today's race, red means it was "lower class".
The Betmix class rating is based on much more than just the purse level of the race. We look at how good the horses in each race were. How fast have they run recently and in their careers, how much money they have earned recently and lifetime, what kinds of races they have been in recently and then finally the purse value of the race. You may encounter situations where a race with a higher purse value is rated as a lower class race. That is because the horses in the higher purse value race may not have been all that good in comparison to the horses in the lower purse value race.
"Keep yourself in the best company and your horses in the worst"
That's the motto that most good horse trainers live by, so its always valuable to know when a horse is truly dropping in "Class".
The new Class Analysis Widget provides a lot of information about how each horse performed from a class standpoint.
There is a lot of information in this widget, and to be perfectly honest with you, we haven't totally wrapped our heads around the best way to use it! One thing that I can tell you about this is that when Class doesn't really matter, then analyzing this table might not lead you to any great insights. When I say "Class doesn't matter" I mean that for races where class factors are not ranked that highly. You can reference the new icons we discussed above to get an idea of how important class factors are for a race type.However, I also know that many of you are huge believers in Class and if you are a serious class handicapper this tool will provide you with a lot of data and we look forward to hearing about how you are using it. Also, please let us know if you think anything should be added - we really do rely on user input to help us know what we should be working on.Here is the information in the table, and if you are having trouble seeing the image above take a look at the Free Bird Dog race to see how it is displayed.
Last Finish Position: where the horse finished in its last race.
Last Race Class: The class level of the horse's last race (Green is higher class, Red is lower Class)
Class Diff: The difference between the last race and today's race.
Last Win Class: The class level of the most recent race the horse won.
Days Since Last Win: How many days since the horse won its last race.
Avg Win Class: The average class level of all the races the horse has won.
Avg Finish Lower Class: The average finish position for the horse in races that were "Lower Class" than today's race.
Avg Finish Higher Class: The average finish position for the horse in races that were "Higher Class" than today's race.
Lengths Beaten Lower Class: The average number of lengths the horse was beaten in all of the races it ran that were "Lower Class" than today's race.
Lengths Beaten Higher Class: The average number of lengths the horse was beaten in all of the races it ran that were "Higher Class" than today's race.
Highest Win Class: The "Highest Class" race that the horse has won.
We recently added a Handicapping Overview widget to BirdDog that contains a quick ranking of the horses in the race based on several different approaches.
One of the sections we added was for Factor Groups. It shows how the horses rank in each factor category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, Trainer/Jock, etc.)We have added a handy icon next to each of those buttons that indicates how important the factor groups are. Depending on the race type you are handicapping the most important group will change. Speed may be very important when handicapping a 6F dirt allowance race at Aqueduct, but when you are working on a 1 mile turf claimer at Tampa you better look at Trainer/Jockey stats.The factor group buttons are also weighted appropriately. There are 11 speed based factors, so depending on which race type you are looking at the weights of each of those factors will be different when you look at the Speed rankings.
Pay attention to the little "Signal Strength" icon next to each factor group button to see how important it is:
BirdDog can provide you with all the handicapping information and tools you would ever want to see. Or, you can ease your way into it with some basic information that is very powerful. We added a new widget to BirdDog that will appeal to new users and experts. It's called "Handicapping Overview" and it provides you with some very accurate handicapping without having to do a thing. Give it a try using the free BirdDog race of the day, or watch the video at the bottom of this email for more info.
Quick Handicapping Buttons
Top 10 - Uses a weighted blend of the 10 most important factors for the race type Win% - Uses a weighted blend of the factors with the best win percentages Hit The Board - Uses factors that predict high percentage of horses that ran 1, 2 or 3 Blend - Uses a mix of factors from each category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, etc.) Longshot - Uses a mix based on factors with high win ROI numbers. Overall Rankings - Uses the ideal setting from Overall Rankings. This is based on the setting that predicted the most exactas within the top 4 ranked horses of the sample of similar races.
FACTOR GROUPS
These rankings will give you an idea of how the horses rank within each category using a weighted mix of the factors within that group. Factors that are more highly ranked within the group will be given more weight. You can click on the buttons the represent each factor to see the mix used.
SCORE & BIRDDOG The "Score" rankings are based on ranking the horses using the default factors in the main horse table: Last Finish Position, Lengths Beaten, Speed Last Race and Class Difference. The score rankings are computed by looking at each horse's rank within each of those factors.
The "BirdDog" rankings use the top 10 factors from the BirdDog table. This table looks at a large number of similar races with the same amount of starters as the race you are looking at. If you are handicapping a 6f dirt claiming race with 8 starters, the BirdDog stats will be based on a large group of races that were 6f dirt with exactly 8 starters. The BirdDog table lets you see how often a horse wins when ranked at a certain position. The BirdDog ranks takes the 10 best factors for the race type and computes a score from that.
COMBINED RANKINGS The combined results of all of the rankings (Quick Handicapping, Factor Groups, Score & BirdDog)
If you are already using BirdDog you can add this widget to your screen by selecting options and then selecting the Handicapping Overview check box:
Take a look at this video for more information about the Handicapping Overview:
Despite an unblemished record at two and an Eclipse Award trophy on his mantle, Nyquist has had to earn the respect of many racing fans the hard way. His performances in the February 15 San Vicente Stakes (G2) and the April 2 Florida Derby (G2) now send him to the Spring Classics as the most accomplished unbeaten colt since Seattle Slew in 1977. How's that for respect?
In both his 2016 starts Nyquist seemingly had formidable foes to deal with. The speedy multiple graded winner Exaggerator awaited in the San Vicente and while the previously unbeaten multiple graded stakes winner Mohaymen had the home track advantage in the Florida Derby. Nyquist dispatched both colts with ease.
Exaggerator's trainer Keith Desormeaux, for one, was duly impressed.
"Goodness gracious," Desormeaux, said after the race. "Anybody not a believer in Nyquist now—that was an awesome race. To set those kinds of fractions and still finish in close to track record time for a 3-year-old in February? Wow. Hat's off to Nyquist."
Perhaps a narrow, wire-to-wire debut win in a 5F Maiden Special in early June is one of the reasons Nyquist has had an uphill battle to prove his quality and two-turn acumen. Many horses that race that early and that well at that distance don't train on to be serious Classics contenders. But he was certainly impressive in sweeping the subsequent 6.5F Best Pal Stakes (G2) and the 7F Del Mar Futurity (G1) last summer by a combined nine lengths.
Despite a victory in his two-turn debut, the FrontRunner Stakes (G1), the effort was largely panned by racing observers, this one included, as too slow on the teletimer and too pedestrian to the naked eye.
Post 13. Two bumps shortly after the break. At least five-wide on both turns. Those are all things Nyquist overcame in his Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory in which his believers were rewarded with a nearly 5-1 payoff on the undefeated colt. His fellow Californian Swipe ran a close second, further confirming the 2015 West Coast juvenile division form.
No matter how impressive the body of work a horse accumulates one season, there is always some question whether we see a better or worse version of the animal the following year. Nyquist has proved any doubts to be folly with his two impressive 2016 victories. With his Florida Derby score, Nyquist has now won Grade 1 races from 7 furlongs to a mile and one eighth and have been victorious over four different racetracks all over the country.
Nyquist is by the young sire sensation Uncle Mo, also an unbeaten Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Eclipse Award champion. We never got to see Uncle Mo's full potential as a runner as illness derailed his Classics aspirations and he was kept to one-turn events when he did make it back to the races in late summer of his sophomore season. Uncle Mo does descend from more of a middle distance sire-line. His sire, Indian Charlie won the Santa Anita Derby and placed third to Real Quiet and Victory Gallop in the 1998 Derby. Nyquist's grandsire, In Excess, won races like the Met Mile as well as the Suburban Handicap when that was race still a mile and a quarter. Uncle Mo is out of a mare by the Roberto grandson Arch, so there is some stamina influence there.
On the other side of the pedigree, Nyquist's dam, Seeking Gabrielle, is by Forestry out of a daughter of Seeking the Gold, two sires who on occasion sired Classic types but are more widely regarded as speed influences.
Nyquist was purchased by Reddam Racing last March at the Fasig-Tipton Two-Year-Old in Training sale for $400,000. That sale has produced other current Classics contenders like Los Alamitos Futurity/Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Mor Spirit, impressive Maiden & Allowance winner Zulu and Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Awesome Speed.
Largely because of a $1 million bonus offered to a graduate of that sale who also wins this year's Florida Derby, Nyquist is targeted Gulfstream Park's signature race. Time will tell if he'll join Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008) and Orb (2013) as Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby winners this century.
