Alcibiades S & Breeders Futurity at Keeneland
8.5F on Dirt (October 8 & 9)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 33 G1 8.5-furlong dirt stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Lifetime Earnings
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 12 winners (32%, $11.00 Win Return, 114 ROI%), 18 Place (48%, $8.30 Place Return), 20 Show (54%)

Here we go! Keeneland roars back to life with typically deep and contentious cards to open up the 2022 Fall Meeting.

Perhaps the two toughest contests over the first three days of the meet are the two Grade 1's for the juvenile set, Friday's Alcibiades and Saturday's Breeders' Futurity. At least 12 starters are scheduled to break from the gate in each.

So what does the Betmix Angler online handicapping database have to say about these races? Angler tells us that the Average Lifetime Earnings handicapping factor has pointed to 32% winners of the recent 8.5 furlong dirt Grade 1s at the historic Lexington oval.

This factor has generated positive Win & Place returns while pointing to recent Alcibiades heroines like My Conquestadory ($4.40), Heavenly Love ($13.40) and Restless Rider ($4.60) along with Breeders' Futurity heroes like Maxfield ($14.80), Essential Quality ($5.80) and Free Drop Billy ($5.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the 1st Average Lifetime Earnings slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

October 3, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The Kentucky Downs turf horses are where you should focus for Keeneland’s Fall Meet on grass.

Background:

With no turf racing at Churchill Downs during its September stand, the natural assumption for horseplayers at Keeneland – which begins Friday – will be to focus on the grass horses who last raced at Kentucky Downs. How do those performers fare historically? Let’s go to the numbers.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all Fall Meet races run at Keeneland going back to 2014. I looked at win percentages and $1 ROI for each horse who raced at Keeneland on turf and dirt via Kentucky Downs final preps and compared vs. all other venues.

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Horses exiting Kentucky Downs races won 9.2% on the Keeneland turf with a $0.59 ROI.
Horses exiting other venues than Kentucky Downs won 10.4% on the Keeneland turf with a $0.83 ROI.

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Horses exiting Kentucky Downs races won 11.9% on the Keeneland dirt with a $0.92 ROI.
Horses exiting other venues than Kentucky Downs won 12.8% on the Keeneland dirt with a $0.76 ROI.

Bottom line:

The Kentucky Downs-prepped turf horses have underperformed on grass at Keeneland in terms of win percentage (-2.2%) and especially $1 ROI for every $1 bet (-$0.24) when compared to horses from all other venues. Interestingly, it’s on dirt where the Kentucky Downs-prepped value lies, posting a sharp $0.92 ROI (+$0.16 compared to all other venues). The numbers – in the past at least – indicate the Kentucky Downs turf path isn’t what the perception is. But that could change without Churchill turfers available this meet. But expect the KD horses to be overbet to start the meet, and be flexible in hopping on board if this trend shifts due to the CD situation.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, was there a particular class of race in which the KD performers did better or worse at Keeneland?

Belmont Turf Sprint S. (G3) at Aqueduct
6F on Dirt (September 24, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 20 6F turf stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 6 winners (30%, $43.30 Win Return, 208 ROI%), 8 Place (53%, $3.90 Place Return), 12 Show (60%, $8.30 Show Return)

Not all of the big stakes on the Belmont at the Big A card at Aqueduct have drawn big, competitive fields but the Belmont Turf Sprint sure did. The race will actually be the first graded turf sprint at Aqueduct but there are 20 non graded 6 furlong turf stakes in the powerful Betmix Angler online handicapping database to analyze.

Angler tells us that the Avg. of Last E2 Pace handicapping factor has produced 30% winners of this racetype and a sterling $43.30 Win Return. It´s also produced 60% in the money finishes and positive Place and Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. of Last E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

Cotillion S. at Parx
8.5F on Dirt (September 24, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 13 Graded 8.5F dirt Stakes at Parx
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey 2-year Win % This Race Type
Factor Stats: 13 contenders, 6 winners (46%, $22.40 Win Return, 186 ROI%), 7 Place/Show (53%).

Saturday is the biggest day of the year at Parx featuring TEN stakes and a pair of Grade 1s, including the Cotillion for sophomore fillies.

With a tough field of 9 set to face the starter we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help and learned that the Jockey 2-year Win % This Race Type handicapping factor has been predictive in the 8.5F graded dirt stakes at Parx, especially the Cotillion.

This factor has pointed to nearly of the past 13 winners of this racetype including 4 Cotillion heroines, two who returned a double digit win mutuels, Midnight Bisou ($10.40) and Street Band ($17.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey 2-year Win % This Race Type slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

September 19, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Major stakes races have become increasingly more difficult to find a price play.

Background:

After a summer at Saratoga with short fields and short prices in graded stakes race, where 42% of favorites won and were an average favorite’s price of just 4-5, there’s a sense that stakes races aren’t providing the value bettors seek. But is that just a recent feeling and providing a bias, or is there more to it?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all graded stakes races in North America from 2014-present. I studied average win odds and percentage of winning favorites and compared those across the years.

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Favorites have won 45.5% in graded stakes in 2022.
Favorites won 45.03% in graded stakes in 2021.
Favorites won 43.8% in graded stakes in 2020.
Favorites won 36.2% in graded stakes in 2019.
Favorites won 38.4% in graded stakes in 2018.
Favorites won 38.2% in graded stakes in 2017.
Favorites won 37.5% in graded stakes in 2016.
Favorites won 33.4% in graded stakes in 2015.
Favorites won 35.1% in graded stakes in 2014.

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Average win odds is 5.08 in graded stakes in 2022.
Average wins odds were 4.90 in graded stakes in 2021.
Average wins odds were 5.11 in graded stakes in 2020.
Average wins odds were 5.49 in graded stakes in 2019.
Average wins odds were 5.37 in graded stakes in 2018.
Average wins odds were 5.28 in graded stakes in 2017.
Average wins odds were 5.57 in graded stakes in 2016.
Average wins odds were 5.30 in graded stakes in 2015.
Average wins odds were 5.20 in graded stakes in 2014.

Bottom line:

Favorites are winning at a higher percentage in graded stakes this year than any of the last 9 in the Betmix database, and up more than 7 points on the averages we were used to seeing from 2014-2020. The major spike began a year ago in 2021 and is holding beyond just a one-time seasonal anomaly. Also the average win odds for graded stakes races has been the lowest the past 2 years of the 9-year study with 2021 a tad shorter in price, though we still have a quarter of the 2022 season to see how things finish.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, how does this angle perform over various tracks?

Woodbine Mile at Woodbine
8F on Turf (September 17, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 runnings of the Woodbine Mile
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey 1-year Win %
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 3 winners (33%, $85.50 Win Return, 575 ROI%), 4 Place (44%) $17.70 Place Return, 5 Show (55%) $4.60 Show Return

A fantastic four-stakes Saturday card is anchored by the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile that has drawn a salty bunch of turf milers.

With a tough field of 11 set to face the starter we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help and learned that the Jockey 1-year Win % handicapping factor has been lucrative in recent Woodbine Mile history.

This factor has pointed to one third of the past nine winners of this race from the obvious (Wise Dan at a $2.50 win payout in 2013) to the longest shot on the board (El Tormenta, the $91.40 winner in 2019) and even in between with the $9.60 winner Mondialiste in 2015.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey 1-year Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

September 13, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses bet to favoritism first-time out are live and should be given extra consideration next time they run.

Background:

Post Saratoga and Del Mar, there will be a great focus on 2-year-old racing the rest of the year. Much is bandied about when it comes to ‘live’ horses on the toteboard and how the public word gets out on them. But when those public heart-throbs lose at first-asking, do we make excuses for them and bet them back? Let’s see by the numbers if that’s a good move.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all second-time starters in America since 2018. I compared the win percentage of all last-out beaten favorites to those of runners who were bet to favoritism in their debuts and were returning. I also compared the $1 ROI bet to win on each type of runner.

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Beaten Favorites won 22.2% in their next starts with a $1 ROI of $0.79.
Debut Beaten Favorites won 22.6% in their next starts with a $1 RIO of $0.78.

Bottom line:

There’s virtually no difference between a beaten favorite in any type of race as to a beaten favorite coming off a heavily bet debut effort. The debut beaten favorites won just 0.4% more often, and had a penny less ROI than all beaten favorites across the spectrum. This myth is debunked. Don’t be swayed by a horse bet in their debut as any special angle.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, how does this angle perform over various tracks … or which trainers have success with this situation

Ladies Sprint & Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs
6.5F on Turf (September 10, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 6.5-furlong graded stakes at Kentucky Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 5 winners (50%, $30.60 Win Return, 253 ROI%), 5 Place/Show (50%) $5.60 Place Return

The Saturday card at Kentucky Downs features 6 stakes, including a pair of the Ladies Sprint & the Franklin-Simpson, both at 6.5 furlongs.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database holds a wealth of data on races at the European-style course and we ran a query looking for positive handicapping factors for the 6.5-furlong graded events. As usual the database didn't disappoint and revealed that horses ranking first in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed have won scored half the time while generating a $30.60 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

ARE CUT-BACKS THE PLAY AT KENTUCKY DOWNS?

Should you look for horses cutting back in distance over Kentucky Downs’ demanding course? (Read More)

TURF OVER DIRT ON WOODBINE SYNTHETIC?

Does Woodbine’s Tapeta course plays more favorably to turf horses than dirt? (Read More)

COMPARING SAFFIE JOSEPH JR. TRAINEES HOME VS. AWAY

Does trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s horses struggle outside of Florida? (Read More)

August 29, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Look for horses cutting back in distance over Kentucky Downs’ demanding course.

Background:

Kentucky Downs opens Thursday with the first of 7 racecards for 2022. The short and unique meeting is held exclusively over turf footing and the course is undulating and challenging. Many handicappers seek horses who have run farther than entered today in their recent efforts.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at the past 5 years at Kentucky Downs and races at the two most heavily contested distances to see if the winners were horses adding distance, staying the same or, indeed, cutting back from farther trips. More than 250 races are in the database during that timeframe.

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At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at a shorter distance last time owned a 10.2% win rate. They had a $1.01 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at the same distance last time owned a 7.8% win rate. They had a $0.61 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at a longer distance last time owned a 8.2% win rate. They had a $0.67 ROI for every $1 bet.

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At 1 mile, horses who raced at a shorter distance last time owned a 6.3% win rate. They had a $0.64 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile, horses who raced at the same distance last time owned a 11.3% win rate. They had a $0.98 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile, horses who raced at a longer distance last time owned a 11.7% win rate. They had a $0.71 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

The same distance and cut-back horses had decidedly more success at the mile trip, but in the 6-1/2 furlong sprint ranks, the stretch-out horses defied the horseplayer assumption and horses adding distance were most successful and most profitable. If you’re betting cut-back horses at Kentucky Downs, consider it more effective in the longer races.

Additional details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which class levels these cut-back and stretch-out horses performed best in.