Woodbine Mile at Woodbine
8F on Turf (September 17, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 runnings of the Woodbine Mile
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Jockey 1-year Win %
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 3 winners (33%, $85.50 Win Return, 575 ROI%), 4 Place (44%) $17.70 Place Return, 5 Show (55%) $4.60 Show Return

A fantastic four-stakes Saturday card is anchored by the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile that has drawn a salty bunch of turf milers.

With a tough field of 11 set to face the starter we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help and learned that the Jockey 1-year Win % handicapping factor has been lucrative in recent Woodbine Mile history.

This factor has pointed to one third of the past nine winners of this race from the obvious (Wise Dan at a $2.50 win payout in 2013) to the longest shot on the board (El Tormenta, the $91.40 winner in 2019) and even in between with the $9.60 winner Mondialiste in 2015.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Jockey 1-year Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

September 13, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses bet to favoritism first-time out are live and should be given extra consideration next time they run.

Background:

Post Saratoga and Del Mar, there will be a great focus on 2-year-old racing the rest of the year. Much is bandied about when it comes to ‘live’ horses on the toteboard and how the public word gets out on them. But when those public heart-throbs lose at first-asking, do we make excuses for them and bet them back? Let’s see by the numbers if that’s a good move.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at all second-time starters in America since 2018. I compared the win percentage of all last-out beaten favorites to those of runners who were bet to favoritism in their debuts and were returning. I also compared the $1 ROI bet to win on each type of runner.

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Beaten Favorites won 22.2% in their next starts with a $1 ROI of $0.79.
Debut Beaten Favorites won 22.6% in their next starts with a $1 RIO of $0.78.

Bottom line:

There’s virtually no difference between a beaten favorite in any type of race as to a beaten favorite coming off a heavily bet debut effort. The debut beaten favorites won just 0.4% more often, and had a penny less ROI than all beaten favorites across the spectrum. This myth is debunked. Don’t be swayed by a horse bet in their debut as any special angle.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, how does this angle perform over various tracks … or which trainers have success with this situation

Ladies Sprint & Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs
6.5F on Turf (September 10, 2022)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 6.5-furlong graded stakes at Kentucky Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 10 contenders, 5 winners (50%, $30.60 Win Return, 253 ROI%), 5 Place/Show (50%) $5.60 Place Return

The Saturday card at Kentucky Downs features 6 stakes, including a pair of the Ladies Sprint & the Franklin-Simpson, both at 6.5 furlongs.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database holds a wealth of data on races at the European-style course and we ran a query looking for positive handicapping factors for the 6.5-furlong graded events. As usual the database didn't disappoint and revealed that horses ranking first in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed have won scored half the time while generating a $30.60 Win Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

ARE CUT-BACKS THE PLAY AT KENTUCKY DOWNS?

Should you look for horses cutting back in distance over Kentucky Downs’ demanding course? (Read More)

TURF OVER DIRT ON WOODBINE SYNTHETIC?

Does Woodbine’s Tapeta course plays more favorably to turf horses than dirt? (Read More)

COMPARING SAFFIE JOSEPH JR. TRAINEES HOME VS. AWAY

Does trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s horses struggle outside of Florida? (Read More)

August 29, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Look for horses cutting back in distance over Kentucky Downs’ demanding course.

Background:

Kentucky Downs opens Thursday with the first of 7 racecards for 2022. The short and unique meeting is held exclusively over turf footing and the course is undulating and challenging. Many handicappers seek horses who have run farther than entered today in their recent efforts.

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at the past 5 years at Kentucky Downs and races at the two most heavily contested distances to see if the winners were horses adding distance, staying the same or, indeed, cutting back from farther trips. More than 250 races are in the database during that timeframe.

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At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at a shorter distance last time owned a 10.2% win rate. They had a $1.01 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at the same distance last time owned a 7.8% win rate. They had a $0.61 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 furlongs, horses who raced at a longer distance last time owned a 8.2% win rate. They had a $0.67 ROI for every $1 bet.

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At 1 mile, horses who raced at a shorter distance last time owned a 6.3% win rate. They had a $0.64 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile, horses who raced at the same distance last time owned a 11.3% win rate. They had a $0.98 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile, horses who raced at a longer distance last time owned a 11.7% win rate. They had a $0.71 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

The same distance and cut-back horses had decidedly more success at the mile trip, but in the 6-1/2 furlong sprint ranks, the stretch-out horses defied the horseplayer assumption and horses adding distance were most successful and most profitable. If you’re betting cut-back horses at Kentucky Downs, consider it more effective in the longer races.

Additional details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which class levels these cut-back and stretch-out horses performed best in.

Travers S. (G1)
10F on dirt at Saratoga (August 27)
Races Analyzed: Last 21 Saratoga 10F dirt G1 Stakes at Saratoga
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 28 contenders, 11 winners (39%), $68.20 win bet return, 221 ROI%, & 16 place/show (58%), $15.70 place return.

Saturday´´ s Travers Stakes features a showdown for 3-year-old male honors and offers horseplayers a challenging handicapping puzzle.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for clues and found that the Win % handicapping factor has shown good returns in the 10-furlong dirt Grade 1s at Saratoga. It´´´ s pointed to 39% winners of this racetype, and while the winningest horses tend to be well-bet, no one will complain about a $68.20 Win Return along with a double digit Place Return.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

August 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:
Having a prep over the track is advantageous in the Travers.

Background:

Saturday’s Midsummer Derby is upon us, and horses converging for the Travers will have had preps across the country and at Saratoga. Is there a local edge for those coming out of races like the Jim Dandy, Curlin or Spa allowances?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look the last 9 Travers editions held in the traditional timeslot, eliminating the 2020 COVID year when it was earlier in the meet and prior to the Kentucky Derby. This produced 101 starters, of which I evaluated the win, place and show percentages of those who prepped locally and those that did not, as well as the $1 ROI on such bets.

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Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 3-for-55 to win (5.45%) with a $0.59 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 7-for-55 to place (12.73%) with a $0.58 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped at Saratoga were 10-for-55 to show (18.18%) with a $0.42 ROI.

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Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 6-for-46 to win (13.04%) with a $1.13 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 11-for-46 to place (23.91%) with a $0.94 ROI.
Travers starters who prepped away from Saratoga were 17-for-46 to show (36.96%) with a $0.97 ROI.

Bottom line:

It’s the horse who DID NOT prep at Saratoga that have had a strong advantage in the Travers since 2013. Despite fewer starters, they produced twice the winners and nearly double up the successful percentage at all levels of finishing in the money. The ROI is significantly higher backing the ship-ins as well. It’s categorically false in recent years to apply any advantage in the Travers to those who last prepped there.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which tracks have had the most success as prep locales for the Travers and more.

Queen´ s Plate
10F on All Weather (August 21)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 25 Woodbine main track stakes at 10 furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 8 winners (27%, $61.70 Win Return, 204 ROI%), 15 Show (51%)

Woodbine is running the Queen´ s Plate in it´ s new August slot after a long run on Dominion Day weekend. What hasn´ t changed is the historic race drawing a large and competitive field.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world´ s most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights on the 11-horse field and learned that the Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace handicapping factor has been profitable in this race type.

The 8 winners pointed to by this factor have produced a very nice $61.70 Win Return, including a double-digit Queen´ s Plate winner in Midnight Aria ($35.20).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

August 15, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk/www.horseplayernow.com
Originally published on www.xpressbet.com

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Woodbine’s Tapeta course plays more favorably to turf horses than dirt.

Background:

With the Queen’s Plate on deck Sunday at Woodbine, many eyes will be on the greater Toronto’s ovals that typically don’t play local races. Does the old theory that synthetic tracks favor turf courses carry over to Woodbine’s Tapeta?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all Woodbine main track races in 2021 and so far in 2022. The more than 1,000 races provide large sample size. I separated all starters based on their most recent start, whether it was on dirt, turf or synthetic and compared win percentages and $1 ROI.

Horses who last raced on traditional dirt won 12.0% on Woodbine’s Tapeta with an ROI of $0.62.
Horses who last raced on turf won 12.6% on Woodbine’s Tapeta with an ROI of $0.76.
Horses who last raced on synthetic surfaces won 11.8% on Woodbine’s Tapeta with an ROI of $0.80.

Bottom line:

The win percentages varied only 0.8% no matter the last surface raced upon. There appears to be no discernible edge in that regard. The dirt-prepped horses, however, provided a much lower ROI, some $.14 less per dollar compared to turf-prepped horses and $.18 less than those last raced on synthetic. This may suggest that even after 15+ years of synthetic racing in North America en masse, the public still doesn’t do a good job identifying which dirt horses will handle the synthetic, and which will not. The similar win rates, but much lower ROI, give me the impression that the dirt-to-synthetic myth remains more in the horseplayer than the horses.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which class levels these surface changes have the most impact. Or, look at other synthetic venues like Turfway, Presque Isle, Golden Gate to see if it plays out similarly.

Yellow Ribbon S. (G2)
8.5F on Turf (August 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 27 Del Mar graded turf stakes at 8.5F furlongs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Race Classes
Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 8 winners (27%, $60.40 Win Return, 204 ROI%), 15 Show (51%)

Saturday´ s Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar drew a field of 7 middle distance turf distaffers set to scramble for the lion´ s share of the $250,000 purse.

We turned to Betmix Angler, the world´ s most powerful online handicapping database, for some insights and learned that the Avg. Last 3 Race Classes handicapping factor has been profitable in this race type.

The 8 winners pointed to by this factor has produced a very nice $60.40 Win Return, including a pair of Yellow Ribbon winners since 2018 in Cambodia ($5.40) and Beau Recall ($6.00).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Race Classes slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix