Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Sharp Angle – Poker S.

Poker S. (G3) at Belmont Park
8F on Turf (June 20)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 30 one mile graded turf stakes at Belmont Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Earnings this Distance
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 13 winners (43%, $36.90 Win Return, 161 ROI%), 16 Place (53%, 9.60 Place Return), 20 show (66%)

The Poker S. on Sunday at Belmont Park has drawn a salty bunch of turf milers, a good race to get the kind of big data handicapping perspective available only with the Betmix online handicapping database.

Angler tells us that 43% of the in the past 30 one-mile graded turf stakes at Belmont Park have been won by the horse ranking first in the Avg. Earnings this Distance handicapping factor.

There have been some nice payouts too, including at $12.20 victory by Gucci Factor in the 2019 Poker. Overall, this factor has generated a $36.90 Win Return and a plus Place Return as well.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Earnings this Distance slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sharp Angles – Salvator Mile

Salvator Mile (G3) at Monmouth Park
8F on Dirt (June 12)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 graded dirt stakes at Monmouth Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 4 winners (44%, $16.20 Win Return, 190 ROI%), 6 Place (55%), 6 show (66%)

Saturday's Salvator Mile highlights the card at Monmouth Park and has drawn a competitive field of 10.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that one-mile graded dirt stakes at the Jersey Shore are relatively rare - just nine such contests have carded since 2012. But Angler also reveals a positive handicapping factor for this race type.

The Last Turn Time factor has pointed to 55% winners, including four recent Salvator Mile champs - Ismyluckyday ($4.40) in 2014, Res Judicata ($18) in 2016 and the past two winners Sunny Ridge ($5.20) & Pirate's Punch ($6.60).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Turn Time slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Belmont Stakes

Belmont S. (G1) at Belmont Park
12F on Dirt (June 5)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 7 Belmont Stakes
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 9 contenders, 4 winners (44%, $39.10 Win Return, 317 ROI%), 4 Place (44%, $9.10 Place Return), 5 show (55%, $9.70 Show Return)

Saturday's Belmont Stakes is known as the 'Test of Champions' due to its demanding mile and one half distance.

While stamina is surely needed to the get trophy in the Belmont, the Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that early speed is also key to winning this Classic.

Angler shows that 4 of the past 7 Belmont Stakes heroes ranked first in Last E1 Pace. While the two most recent Triple Crown champions, American Pharoah ($3.50) and Justify ($3.60) are among these winners, a pair of longshots round out the sample. 2013 winner Palace Malice returned $29.60 to his backer and a year later Tonalist paid $20.40.

This handicapping factor also pointed to Joevia, third in the 2019 Belmont at 21-1.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
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May Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries in May.

Bet Against Derby Alumni Next Out?

The taxing nature of the Kentucky Derby, its mile and one-quarter distance under 126 pounds and uniquely large field size, are reasons why many handicappers openly look to beat those runners in their next starts.
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Are Fewer Horses Showing Up for the Preakness?

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at how many horses have come out of the Derby to run back in the Preakness over the past 8 years.
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Better Bets as the Day Progresses?

How a racing office puts together a day’s card is most often the best way to maximize betting handle. Races with smaller fields and heavy favorites tend to draw less handle, and often are placed early in the racing day. 
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Are Early Season 2YO Races All About the Chalk?

As the juvenile campaign deepens, form fills in a bit with 2-year-olds and the handicapping process starts to balance some. But early in the year, we really only have workouts, trainer stats, pedigree and the tote to guide us. Many horseplayers are adamant that the live money shows on the babies.
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Sharp Angles – Pennine Ridge S.

Pennine Ridge S. (G2) at Belmont Park
9F on Turf (May 29)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 37 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Belmont Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 38 contenders, 12 winners (31%, $42.00 Win Return, 155 ROI%), 18 place (47%), 25 show (55%, $4.30 Show Return)

The Grade 2 Pennine Ridge Stakes, the Saturday feature at Belmont Park, drew a solid field of nine 3-year-olds, all vying for their first graded stakes victory.

The lineup includes a refugee from the Triple Crown, a pricey recent maiden winner, a turf debuter along with several showing blacktype form on the grass. With such a handicapping puzzle facing bettors, we turned to the Betmix Angler online database for some perspective.

Angler reveals that the Horses Beaten % handicapping factor has produced 31% winners in the 9-furlong grassy graded races at Belmont. These winners have generated a stout $42 Win Return and have hit the board over two thirds of the time.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Honeymoon S.

Honeymoon S. (G3) at Santa Anita
5F on Turf (May 22)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 54 9-furlong graded turf stakes at Santa Anita
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg Last 3 Race Classes
Factor Stats: 55 contenders, 19 winners (34%, $52.20 Win Return, 147 ROI%), 25 place (45%, $4.10 Place Return, 29 show (52%)

The Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes is one of pair of graded events on the Saturday card at Santa Anita.

We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for assistance with this grassy event for sophomore fillies. Angler tells us that Average Last 3 Race Classes has pointed to 34% winners of the 9-furlong graded turf stakes at the Arcadia oval. These winners have generated a juicy $52.20 Win Return and include two recent Honeymoon heroines - Nashoba's Gold ($3.40) and Lady Prancealot ($8.40).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 Race Classes slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Jim McKay Turf Sprint S.

Jim McKay S. at Pimlico
5F on Turf (May 15)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 27 5-furlong turf stakes at Pimlico
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 27 contenders, 8 winners (29%, $26.20 Win Return, 148 ROI%), 14 place (51%, $34.20 Place Return, 15 show (55%, $1.60 Show Return)

The Jim McKay Turf Sprint honors the late, great ABC sportscaster and Maryland racing advocate and it just might be the most compelling handicapping challenge over Preakness Stakes weekend at Pimlico.

The 5-furlong turf affair has drawn full field of 12 with a 5/2 morning line favorite. Races like these are prime candidates for the big data handicapping analysis provided by the Betmix Angler online database.

Angler reveals that the Last Late Pace handicapping factor has shown good results in this race type. Nearly 30% of the contenders ranking first in this factor have won, generating a smart $26.20 Win Return.

It's also pointed to some live longshots in the exacta spot as evidenced by the even higher $34.20 Place Return. Among the runners finishing 2nd are Tempt Me Twice, the 30-1 runner-up in the 2019 McKay.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix

April Handicapping Myths

Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his discoveries in April.

Does Turf-to-Dirt Deliver?

While you’ll often hear horseplayers tout the “turf-to-dirt” angle, can we validate that as a positive move overall, or in certain situations?
Click here to read more

Were Lasix-Free Derby Preps Less Predictable?

With the announcement late last year that all Kentucky Derby qualifying points races would award points only if contested Lasix-free, many wondered (some aloud) about the performances to come. Would the lack of the anti-bleeder medication create chaos? Could you trust the results of the races? 
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More Time Between Starts?

What’s the best time between starts? Do all modern horses need more time or just the stakes performers?
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Derby Day 'Dumb' Money

You’ll often hear seasoned horseplayers and racetrackers talk about the ‘dumb’ money in the Kentucky Derby pools, not only in the big race, but the supporting features.
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Bet-Against Derby Alumni Next Out?

The taxing nature of the Kentucky Derby, its mile and one-quarter distance under 126 pounds and uniquely large field size, are reasons why many handicappers openly look to beat those runners in their next starts. 
Click here to read more

Sharp Angles – William Walker S.

William Walker S. at Churchill Downs
5.5F on Turf (April 24)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last six 5.5-furlong turf stakes at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 6 contenders, 3 winners (50%, $11.20 Win Return, 193 ROI%), 4 show (66%, 7.80 Place and Show Return)

Turf sprint stakes are a relatively new phenomenon at Churchill Downs, especially at the 5.5 furlong distance. However, a scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database has revealed a compelling trend in this newer race type.

Half of the first six 5.5 furlong turf stakes at under the Twin Spires have been won by the horse ranking first in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace. These winners have generated a double digit Win Return along with positive Place and Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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Sharp Angles – Elkhorn S.

Elkhorn S. (G3) at Keeneland
12F on Turf (April 10)

Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 31 12-furlong graded turf stakes at Keeneland
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Factor Stats: 37 contenders, 9 winners (24%, $32.60 flat win bet return, 144 ROI%), 19 show (51%)

The Elkhorn Stakes highlights the final Saturday card of the 2021 Keeneland Spring meeting and the turf marathon has drawn a typically competitive 10-horse field.

We used the Betmix Angler online handicapping database to see what handicapping factors have been predictive in these grassy graded long-distance heats and found that Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed may be the one to focus on.

Nearly a quarter of the contenders ranking first in this factor have been led into the infield winner's circle while producing a $32.60 Win Return. The sample includes the last three Elkhorn winners: Zulu Alpha ($4.00), Bigger Picture ($16.60) and One Go All Go ($21.20).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
Click for the Betmix Angler tutorial
Click to subscribe to Betmix