Blue Grass S. (G2)
9F on Dirt (July 11)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 29 Keeneland graded dirt stakes at 9F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 30 contenders, 8 winners (26%, $63.00 Win Bet Return, 205 ROI%), 20 place/show (66%, 26.80 Place Bet Return and $21.80 Show Bet Return)

Better late than never. Keeneland has returned and we'll have a Blue Grass Stakes this crazy year after all.

This 2020 edition of this historic race had drawn an especially fascinating field with including the Kenny McPeek-trained filly Swiss Skydiver.

We queried the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some help and found that Average Last 3 E1 Pace has yielded a very nice profit in the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Keeneland.

This factor has also pointed to one of the longer shot to have won the Blue Grass, 2017 hero Irap, who rewarded is backers with a $64.60 win mutuel.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 E1 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Suburban S. (G2)
10F on Dirt (July 4)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 13 Belmont Park graded dirt stakes at 10F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 6 winners (42%, $48.70 Win Bet Return, 273 ROI%), 8 place/show (57%, 15.10 Place Bet Return and $4.20 Show Bet Return)

The 2020 Suburban S. has drawn a competitive field of 8 older male distance runners seeking to put their name along side the likes of Nashua, Bold Ruler, Kelso, Buckpasser, Forego, Easy Goer, Mineshaft and Invasor.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database shows us that there have been only 13 10-furlong graded stakes on the Belmont Park main track since 2012. Angler also tells us that In the Money % has been a predictive handicapping factor in these races.

Over 40% of the contenders ranking first in this factor have had their pictures taken, including the past to Suburban champions Preservationist ($9.90) and Diversify ($14).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the In the Money % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Regret S. (G3)
9F on Turf (June 27)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 28 Churchill Downs graded turf stakes at 9F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Win %
Factor Stats: 34 contenders, 10 winners (29%, $25.80 Win Bet Return, 137 ROI%), 19 place/show (55%, 20.00 Place Bet Return, 1.60 Show Bet Return)

A few days after Churchill Downs announced that fans are expected (fingers crossed) under the Twins Spires for its two biggest days of the year, the storied track hosts what is normally its third biggest card - Stephen Foster Day.

Among the four stakes on the reconfigured Foster agenda is the Regret Stakes for sophomore fillies going 9 furlongs on the grass. This racetype is typically very difficult to decipher so we turned to the Betmix online handicapping database for direction.

Angler tells us that Win % has pointed to nearly 30% winners in the 9 furlong graded turf stakes at Churchill, while generating a very solid $25.80 Win Return. Among the winners is last year's Regret heroine, Hard Legacy who returned $13.80 to her backers.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Win % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Jaipur S. (G1)
6F on Turf (June 20)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 9 Belmont Park graded turf stakes at 6F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 11 contenders, 5 winners (45%, $11.20 Win Bet Return, 150 ROI%), 9 place/show (81%, 1.60 Place Bet Return and $6.00 Show Bet Return)

Turf sprints are becoming more and more important in North America. Case in point is Saturday's Jaipur Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard that now has Grade 1 status.

This year's edition has drawn a deep field of eight and was a perfect foil for the Betmix Angler online handicapping database.

From a relatively small sample of 6-furlong grass stakes at Belmont Park, we learned that 45% of the winners and an impressive 81% of the top three finishers have ranked first in the Average Last 3 Late Pace handicapping factor. Among the winners are three of last six Jaipur conquerors including the double-digit mutuel winners Undrafted ($11.60) and Disco Partner ($11.60).

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Louisville S. (G3)
12F on Turf (June 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 12 Churchill Downs graded turf stakes at 12F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Speed Last Race
Factor Stats: 12 contenders, 5 winners (41%, $12.60 Win Bet Return, 152 ROI%), 8 place/show (66%, 3.80 Place Bet Return)

Turf marathons are often difficult for handicappers to process given the prevalence of sprint/speed-oriented racing in North America.

With the 12-furlong Louisville Stakes on the Churchill Downs lawn on tap for Saturday we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for clues to success in this endangered race type.

Not surprisingly there have been only 12 turf stakes careded going the 12 furlong distance under the Twin Spires, but Angler revealed that Speed Last Race has been predictive in this small sample.

Over one-third of the contenders have factored in the trifecta with over 40% cashing for the win. Even more compelling is the fact that four of the past six Louisville S. winners have ranked first in this handicapping factor.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Speed Last Race slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Fort Marcy S. (G3)
9F on Turf (June 6)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 34 Belmont Park graded turf stakes at 9F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Horses Beaten %
Factor Stats: 35 contenders, 11 winners (31%, $25.60 Win Bet Return, 136 ROI%), 23 place/show (65%, 4.00 Show Bet Return)

North American racing looks fantastically normal this weekend with 22 stakes from coast-to-coast, including four on Saturday's card at Belmont Park.

Among the four is a competitive renewal of the Fort Marcy Stakes for middle distance male turfers and that's where we steered the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for some insights.

Angler tells us that Horses Beaten % has pointed to around one-third winners in this race type and 65% in the money finishes. Recency is also on the side of this Sharp Angle as it has pointed to the winners of three of the seven 2019 9F graded turf races at Belmont.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Horses Beaten % slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Mint Juelp S. (G3)
8.5F on Turf (May 30)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 37 Churchill Downs graded turf stakes at 8.5F
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 42 contenders, 7 winners (16%, $37.20 flat win bet return, 144 ROI%), 23 place/show (54%, $71.20 flat Place Return, $26..40 Show Return)

The grassy Mint Julep at 8.5 furlongs is one of two stakes on Saturday's Churchill Downs card. It drew a large and diverse field that should have horseplayers salivating.

The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that 16% of horses ranking first in Last Late Pace have triumphed in this racetype (8.5F turf graded stakes at Churchill).

We typically shoot for a higher Win % when promoting a handicapping factor but there are some other reasons for optimism.

Three of the seven winners have paid double-digits, including $60 winner Hay Dakota, producing a very nice Win Return of $37.20. The Place Return borders on outlandish at $71.20. Furthermore, On Strike Mom, the $7 winner of last year's Mint Julep is among the seven to find the winner's circle.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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New Jockey - Better or Worse?

We've added a new stat to the main horse table in BirdDog.

Next to the Jockey name you can see the win % for that jockey over the last year. If this is a new rider compared to last race you will also see how much better or worse this new jockey is.

The horse above (#10) is being ridded by Santana, same as last race, so all you see is Santana's win % over the last year.

#6 - Spokane Eagle is being ridden by Rosario, which is a different jockey than last race. Rosario's 1 year win % is 4.19% better than the previous jockey that rode this horse.

If the new jockey has a lower win % than the previous jockey it will show up as a red number:

Getting a better jockey does not always mean the horse is going to run better than it did in its previous start - remember, the horse is carrying the jockey, not the other way around. 

The big stand out statistically is when a horse is getting a worse jockey, and that jockey is worse by 7% or more. Those types of horses will usually underperform.

So far this year there have been 5,541 horses getting new riders that are at least 7% WORSE than the previous jockey. Of those 5,540 horses only 496 won (8.95%).

This new stat is an easy thing to keep an eye on and hopefully it helps point you towards a few more winners.

Matt Winn S. (G3)
8.5F on Dirt (May 23)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 7 runnings of the Matt Winn
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Average Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: 7 contenders, 6 winners (85%, $30.60 flat win bet return, 318 ROI%), 7 place/show (100%, $11.20 flat Place Return, $4.20 Show Return)

In a normal year, Saturday's Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs would attract a moderate-sized field comprised largely Triple Crown refugees and later-blooming sophomores intent on making a summer splash.

This year it's drawn a large and competive field of colts trying to make the cut for the upside down 2020 Triple Crown. Fortunately for handicappers the Betmix Angler online handicapping database provides a steady and consistent stream of important data.

An Angler scan tells us that horses ranking first in the Average Speed Last 3 handicapping factor have triumphed in 6 of the past 7 running of the Matt Winn. Among those is 2018 King Zachary, who returned $26.60 to his backers and the only contender not to win, Fame and Power in 2015, completed the exacta.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Average Speed Last 3 slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

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Sunday Silence S.
9F on Dirt (May 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 22 9-furlong non graded stakes at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last E2 Pace
Factor Stats: 21 contenders, 8 winners (38%, $8.00 flat win bet return, 119 ROI%), 14 place/show (66%, $17.30 flat Place Return, $.20 Show Return)

Sunday Silence was the dramatic winner of the 1989 Breeders' Cup Classic at Gulfstream Park and the South Florida oval honors that great champion with it's featured race on Sunday.

We scanned the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found a useful Sharp Angle for the 9-furlong non-graded dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Contenders ranking first in Last E2 Pace have triumphed 38% of the time and hit the board at a 66% clip. There are also green numbers down the line for Win, Place and Show Returns.

Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last E2 Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.

Want to look for your own Angles using Betmix handicapping software?
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