Tropical Park Derby & Tropical Park Oaks at Gulfstream Park
8.5F on Turf (December 29)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 40 8.5-furlong turf stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: 39 contenders, 13 winners (33%, $71.40 flat win bet return, 191 ROI%), 18 win/place (46%, $12.20 flat place bet return)

The December 29 Tropical Park Derby and Tropical Park Oaks drew full fields of runners looking to take advantage of one last chance to earn blacktype versus fellow 3-year-olds. Consequently, both races offer tremendous wagering opportunities. With that in mind we used the Betmix Angler handicapping software to look for the most predictive factors in 8.5 furlong grass stakes for 3-year-olds at the Hallandale, Florida oval.

Average Turf Earnings appears to be the key to this race type, producing a 33% win rate and an exceptional $70 win return. Just two years ago the winners of both those races ranked first in this factor - Giant Run, the $19.80 winner of the Derby and Ultra Brat, who lit up the board in the Oaks with a $75.40 win mutuel.

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Bonapaw S. at Fair Grounds
5.5F on Turf (December 22)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 36 5.5-furlong turf stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 36 contenders, 12 winners (33%, $30.20 flat win bet return, 141 ROI%), 23 win/place/show (63%, $9.40 flat place bet return & $7.40 flat show bet return)

The Bonapaw Stakes is one of six blacktype offerings on the December 22 Fair Grounds card and the race has drawn a field nine turf sprinters. Using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we've isolated a key factor in the 5.5 furlong grass stakes at the New Orleans oval.

Late speed appears to be the key with runners ranking 1st in Average of Last 3 Late Pace scoring a third of the time. 11 more contenders have hit the board triggering positive place and show bet returns.

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Miss America S. at Golden Gate Fields (2 divisions)
8.5F on Turf (December 8)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 17 8.5-furlong turf stakes at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Win %
Factor Stats: 17 contenders, 6 winners (35%, $37.60 flat win bet return, 210 ROI%), 11 win/place/show (64%, $25.60 flat place bet return & $14.30 flat show bet return)

The Miss America Stakes at Golden Gate Fields drew an overflow field that led track officials to split the race into two divisions. This could be a very good thing for Betmix users. After a scan of the BirdDog online handicapping software we found that horses ranking 1st in Win % have done extremely well in 8.5 turf stakes at the Bay Area track.

It's easy to intuit that consistently winning horses won't offer generous payouts so we were surprised to find that this Angle has produced exceptional win, place and show returns. Coachwhip, the 16-1 runner up in last year's Miss America, is one of three straight qualifiers who've finished 1st or 2nd in this race type.

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Go For Wand H. & Cigar Mile H. at Aqueduct
8F on Dirt (December 1)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 24 8-furlong graded dirt stakes at Aqueduct
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked in Top 3 Days Since Last Race & 1st in In The Money %
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 6 winners (33%, $68.00 flat win bet profit, 288 ROI%), 10 win/place/show ($25.20 flat place bet return & $7.50 flat show bet return)

NYRA hosts its last big race card of the year on Saturday, December 1. The four-stakes menu is anchored by the Grade 1 Cigar Mile and also features the Grade 2 Go For Wand H. for the distaffers going a flat mile. A scan of the Betmix Angler handicapping software reveals that recency and consistency have been strong indicators in the 8-furlong graded races on the Aqueduct main track. The final formula reads: rank among the top 3 in Days Since Last Race along with showing first in In The Money %.

Of the 18 runners in this race type who've qualified, one third have found the winner's circle producing a very generous $68 flat win bet profit. Four more contenders have hit the board sparking very good place bet ($25.20) and show bet ($7.50) returns.

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Oakland S. at Golden Gate Fields
6F on All-Weather (November 17)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 30 6-furlong main track stakes at Golden Gate
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Turn Time
Factor Stats: 40 contenders, 11 winners (27%, $46.80 flat win bet profit, 158 ROI%), 18 win/place (45%, $4.30 flat place return)

The Oakland Stakes, Saturday's feature at Golden Gate Fields has drawn a healthy field of nine older male sprinters. Using the Betmix Angler Handicapping software to analyze the past 30 sprint stakes at the Northern California oval we found that Last Turn Time has been a very positive factor for this race type.

11 of the 40 contenders ranking first Last Turn Time have had their pictures taken and this factor appears to be on an upward trajectory with Tribal Storm taking the Lost in the Fog Stakes earlier this year at 20-1.

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Richard W. Small S. at Laurel
8F on Dirt (November 10)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 31 9-furlong dirt stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace
Factor Stats: 34 contenders, 12 winners (35%, $58.60 flat win bet profit, 186 ROI%), 15 win/place (44%, $10.90 flat place return)

The two-day Breeders' Cup extravaganza has come and gone but there is a still a wealth of stakes action across the country this weekend, including a five-stakes Saturday card at Laurel Park. The $100,000 Richard W. Small Stakes is one of those and it's drawn an overflow field of 15 older males.

When tough races like this arise it's wise to turn to the Betmix Handicapping software. Looking at the last 31 9-furlong dirt stakes at Laurel we find that Last Late Pace has pointed to 12 winners that have produced a very healthy Win Return of $58.60. Among the winners is Afleet Willy, who found the winner's circle in this race last year at an $8.60 win mutuel

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Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint & Turf Sprint
5.5F on Turf
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 141 turf sprints at Churchill Downs
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 E1 Pace
Factor Stats: 149 contenders, 34 winners (22%, $30,60 Win Return), 60 Win/Place (40% $3.20 Place Return)

Turf Sprints have grown in number at North American tracks in recent years and there are now a pair of Breeders' Cup contests for the speedy turfers - Friday's inaugural Juvenile Turf Sprint and Saturday's Turf Sprint. Both races will be contested at 5.5F over the Churchill Downs turf course.

We have a good-sized sample of 141 turf sprints to analyze in the Betmix Angler handicapping software and we found a profitable angle for this race type. Average of Last 3 E1 Pace turns out to be a solid predictor of success with a 22% Win% and a sparkling $30.60 Win Return. The 40% total Win/Place rate also indicates this Factor is a good place to start when looking for a horse to key in these always competitive races.

Another resource for handicapping North American turf sprints is the May 31 Pedigree Handicapping analysis of turf sprint sires.

Best of luck on Breeders Cup weekend!

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When Breeders' Cup pre-entries were announced on October 24, a total of 23 horses were cross-entered in multiple Breeders' Cup races. In most cases the connections have all but decided which race to target but there are a few decisions yet to be finalized. We decided to utilize the Sire Search feature within the Betmix handicapping software to see if any insights could be gleaned.

Perhaps the biggest Breeders' Cup decision to be made is with Roaring Lion. Will he go in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the Churchill Downs main track or stay on course for the Turf over a surface on which he's already won a quartet of Group 1's?

Below is the Turf vs. Dirt performance comparison for stakes starters by Roaring Lion's sire, Kitten's Joy, along with the dirt stakes distance comparisons for the stallions Quality Road and Uncle Mo. The connections of the Quality Road son City of Light will choose between the $1,000,000 Dirt Mile and the 10-furlong $6,000,000 Classic. Uncle Mo's Mopotism has secured a spot in the $2,000,000 Distaff at 9 furlongs and is the first alternate for the 7-furlong $1,000,000 Filly & Mare Sprint.

Maryland Millions Turf at Laurel
8F on Turf (October 20)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: 18 8-furlong turf stakes at Laurel
Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Ranking
Factor Stats: 18 contenders, 8 winners (44%, $15.80 flat win bet profit, 143 ROI%), 14 win/place/show (77%, $3.60 flat place return, $2.10 flat show return)

The annual Jim McKay Maryland Millions day at Laurel features 11 stakes for thoroughbreds born in the Free State. Among the more competitive stakes is the Maryland Millions Turf which drew a full field of 11 with three more waiting on the also-eligibles list.

While a good grass pedigree may seem obvious for success in a turf stakes, this factor has definitely proven profitable in this race type. And by using the Betmix Angler handicapping software we can zero in on exactly which runner has the highest-rated turf pedigree. Runners ranked 1st in Turf Pedigree Ranking have won 8 of the past 18 one-mile stakes over the Laurel turf course (44%), producing a $15.80 Win Return (along with plus Place & Show Returns).

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