Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Classic & Distaff

Handicapping Blog

Classic - 10 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 9 Graded 1 races at 10 furlongs on (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classics)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Last Speed
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 9 races (44%) for $24.40 Win ROI

The last two Santa Anita BC Classic heroes are in this sample - Mucho Macho Man (pictured, $10), the narrow winner in 2013 and Bayern ($14.20) the controversial winner in 2014.

Last Late Pace is another way to look at the Classic. It too has hit at 44% and actually has a higher Win ROI ($57). Bayern falls out with this approach but Mucho Macho Man remains. The real profitability comes courtesy of the double digit winners Melatonin ($34.60 in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap) and Hard Aces ($17.80 in the 2015 Gold Cup at Santa Anita)

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Distaff - 9 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 16 Grade1 races at 9 furlongs on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Distaffs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 8 of the 16 races (50%) for $24.60 Win ROI

A good win percentage but a thin ROI overall. The does include sample include Untapable ($5.20) who won the BC Distaff at Santa Anita as three-year-old in 2014.

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Green

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There are four Breeders' Cup races for older runners on the turf. In the first Sharp Angles post we took a look at the Turf Sprint. Today we highlight some potentially profitable factors for the Turf, Mile and Filly & Mare Turf

Turf - 12 furlongs on the turf (starts on downhill course)
Races Analyzed: 7 Graded races at 12 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turfs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3
Factor Stats: Has won 3 of the 7 races (43%) for $18.80 Win ROI

We have a small sample here but this factor highlighted the most recent BC Turf winner at Santa Anita - Main Sequence (pictured), who got past likely 2016 favorite Flintshire at a $14.04 mutuel.

Other ‘speed’ factors like Best Last Speed have also proven profitable in this race type at Santa Anita.

main_sequence_bc_turf_2014_615x400_orig

Mile - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 13 Grade 1 races at 8 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Miles)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Turf Earnings
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 13 races (46%) for $46.40 Win ROI

This factor has pointed to a pair of double digit winners, including Midnight Storm, the $11.20 victor in this summer’s Shoemaker Mile. Wise Dan is also included in the sample for his second Mile score in 2013 ($3.60)

Filly & Mare Turf - 10 furlongs on the turf (starts on downhill course)
Races Analyzed: 8 Graded 1 for fillies/mares at 12 furlongs on turf (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup F & M Turfs)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average of Last 3 E2 Pace
Factor Stats: Has won 4 of the 8 races (50%) for $19.80 Win ROI

We’d like to see a little higher ROI on an Angle that’s hit at a 50% rate but this factor has produced the last two Breeders’ Cup F & M Turf heroines at Santa Anita - Dank ($5) in 2013 and Dayatthespa ($13) in 2014.

Want to look for your own angles?

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Fast Lane

Handicapping Blog, , , , ,

In this week’s Sharp Angles post we’ll take a look at the two Breeders’ Cup ‘fast lane’ contests - the Sprint and Filly and Mare Sprint.

Breeders' Cup Sprint - 6 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 6 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for males on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Average Last 3 Turn Time
Factor Stats: Has won 2 of the 6 races (33%) for a $39.20 Win ROI

The most relevant sample is pretty small, just six 6F Grade 1's for males at Santa Anita the past three years. However, this factor looks to be an emerging one. 2014 BC Sprint champ (at a $40.20 mutuel) Work All Week (pictured) ranked first in this factor. The most recent winner did too, Santa Anita Sprint Championship conqueror Lord Nelson ($3). Expanding the sample to include Grade 2 6F dirt races for males at the 'Great Race Place' would show another 2016 winner - Kobe's Back, the $7 victor of the Grade 2 Palos Verdes S. on February 7.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - 7 furlongs on the dirt
Races Analyzed: 6 Santa Anita Graded races for females on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup F & M Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Best Speed Today's Track
Factor Stats: Has won 3 of the 6 races (50%) for a $15.20 Win ROI

Small sample and small ROI for this one too but this factor has pointed to the last two BC Filly & Mare Sprint winners at Santa Anita - 2013 heroine Groupie Doll ($8) and 2014 winner Judy the Beauty ($8.20). The other winner was Teddy's Promise the $5 winner of the 2013 Santa Monica Stakes.

Want to look for your own angles?

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup Baby Races

Handicapping Blog, , , , ,

Last week we used Betmix Angler to introduce some potentially profitable angles for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile. This time we'll take a look at the four Breeders' Cup races for Juveniles.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies - 8.5 furlongs on the dirt (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 12 Santa Anita Grade 1 races for 2YOs at 8.5F on dirt (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st Last Race Class
Factor Stats: Has won 7 of the 12 races (58%) for a $167.80 Win ROI

Santa Anita cards a pair of Grade 1 Breeders' Cup preps for the juvenile set, the Frontrunner for colts and the Chandelier for fillies. Since they are run at the same 8.5F distance as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies we have a decent-sized sample of 12 Grade 1's to analyze in Angler.

The Last Race Class factor pointed to a big one at the 2014 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita- Take Charge Brandi, who scored in the Juvenile Fillies at 61-1. But among the other six winners is Secret Compass, the $23.40 winner of the 2013 Chandelier Stakes and Noted and Quoted, who took this year's edition of that race at a $16.80 mutuel. This angle might be a little stronger for the Juvenile Fillies overall as five of the seven winner are female. The two winning colts in the group are Nyquist and American Pharoah, favored winners of the Frontrunner Stakes in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

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Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf - 8 furlongs on the turf (two turns)
Races Analyzed: 16 Santa Anita 2YO Turf Stakes (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 18, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st In the Money %
Factor Stats: Has won 6 of the 16 races (37%) for a $46 Win ROI

The overall win percentage and ROI are a little lower than we'd like to see with this this In the Money % factor. However, it has pointed to three of the past four Santa Anita Breeders Cup Juvenile/Juvenile Fillies Turf winners: 2014 Juvenile Turf victor Hootenanny ($14), 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Lady Eli ($6.80) and 2013 Juvenile Turf hero Outstrip ($14). This angle also has recency going for it as Big Score is among the six winners. That colt took the October 10 Zuma Beach Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths at nearly 5-1.

Want to look for your own angles?

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Sharp Angles – Breeders’ Cup First Look

Handicapping Blog, , ,

Betmix Angler was introduced over the summer and has lived up the hype. It’s an extremely powerful handicapping tool, but one that does require a bit of trial and error to yielded consistent results. We’re kicking off a new blog series called Sharp Angles that will put the focus on some winning angles we’ve discovered by using Angler. By highlighting profitable angles, and the methodology behind them, we hope to advance the overall Angler understanding so that Betmix users can more effectively apply this important tool to their own handicapping challenges.

In three weeks time, the purple and gold Breeders Cup colors will adorn Santa Anita for the fourth time this decade. Two Breeders’ Cup contests, the Turf Sprint and Dirt Mile, are uniquely configured at the SoCal track so we’ve put those races in the Sharp Angles spotlight first.

turf-sprintBreeders' Cup Turf Sprint - 6.5 furlongs on the hillside turf course
Races Analyzed: 25 Graded Stakes races (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 14, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Finish Position Rank
Factor Stats: Has won 11 of the 25 races (44%) for $106.80 Win ROI

This sample includes a $20-plus winner in each of the past three years - 2014 Las Cienegas Stakes heroine Tribal Spy, 2015 San Simeon Stakes winner Get Happy Mister ($27.20) and Holy Lute ($23.40) winner of a division of the Eddie D. Stakes on the opening day card of this year's fall meeting. Sharp form recent form does appear to be key in these ‘down the hill’ Graded events. We find that Speed Last Race has also been predictive, having been the winning factor in 9 of the 25 races (36%) and showing a $79 Win ROI.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - 8 furlongs on the main track (around two turns)
Races Analyzed: 6 Grade 1 races (including 2013 & 2014 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Miles)
Date Range: January 1, 2013 - October 14, 2016
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Today’s Track
Factor Stats: Has won all 6 races (100%) for $25.6 Win ROI

This is obviously a small sample size and a relatively small ROI but it’s hard to argue with perfection. A look at some additional data also suggests this angle is on very solid ground. First of all, opening up the search to all Graded races at the mile distance would increase the sample by two more races and yield two more winners. Second, it does appear that ‘home track advantage’ is a strong indicator in this race type as Average Earnings Today’s Track (66%/$11 ROI) and Trainer Current Meet (66%/$12 ROI) are the next two winningest factors.

Want to look for your own angles?

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Angler Tips & Tricks

Handicapping Blog, , ,

Some helpful new features have been added to Angler, and we have a new video that walks you through a few ways that you can use Angler to your advantage.

1. You can now click one button to see if any horses running today match any of your saved Angles, and print out the report.

2. Your Angles are now saved with their stats so you can sort through Win%, Win ROI etc.

Angler Tips & Tricks video

Learn how to use Angler to evaluate single horses in any race.

Learn how to create an Angle for a specific race type.

Learn how to create an Angle based on any condition or advantage...

Betmix Angler is Here!

Handicapping Blog, , , ,
To win consistently betting on horses you have to have an edge. Angler will give you the edge you need and so much more...

If you are serious about handicapping horses you need to know when a horse is a good bet, or a bad one. What types of races you should play and when to skip them. When a favorite is the right play and when to go against the chalk.

If you can describe the race or the horse, Angler can give you the percentages.

Q: How often do first time starters win MdSpWt races on the turf at Saratoga?
A: About 10% of the time.

Q: How often do horses in 6F dirt claiming races who are in poat #1, & have the best early pace & best speed last race win?
A: About 34% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more?
A: About 11% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more if they ran a bullet workout recently?
A: About 14% of the time.

Q: How often do horses win Allowance races after a layoff of 100 days or more if they ran a bullet workout recently, and have the top trainer & jockey at the meet?
A: About 35% of the time.

Find your profitable angles, save them and then look for them in today's or future races. Put your money in action when you know the odds and percentages are in your favor...

Angler is available to Betmix monthly or yearly subscribers, to learn more about Angler and how to use it please watch this video, or take a look at the help page.

Angler Odds vs. Performance Analysis

Handicapping Blog, , , ,

We've added some very informative new stats to Angler Analysis in BirdDog.

These new stats are all about letting you know how often horses, trainers, jockeys, etc. do what they are supposed to do. You need to know if the horse you are betting on has a history of doing what its supposed to do or not. When a horse does (or doesn't do) what is expected that can be good, bad or ugly.

If you bet a favorite to win or use it in your trifecta and it runs 5th that is a real ugly outcome.

However, if you bet against that favorite and it runs off the board that is a real good thing. The new stats described below will help you determine if your horse has a history of doing what you need it to do today.  Sometimes you want them to win, other times you want them to lose... What's good for me can be bad for you - it all depends on the bets we made.

To make money consistently you need to make value bets - bet on horses that have a better chance to win than the public thinks. That means finding horses, trainers, owners, jockeys, etc. that overperform and not betting on those that are likely to underperform.

The Angler Analysis tool gives you a lot of information about the horses, trainers, jockeys, sires, etc. in a race.

Below is a description of each of the columns and what they mean, the 4 new columns (11,12,13,14) are VERY informative.
  1. RACES - The number of races for the horse, trainer, etc. used in the sample.
  2. WIN $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to win in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
  3. Place $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to place in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
  4. Show $ - Shows you what your ROI would have been for betting this horse to show in each race. Positive ROI numbers are in green.
  5. WIN % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) win the race.
  6. Place % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) run at least second.
  7. WIN % - What percentage of the time did this horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) ruin at least 3rd.
  8. The average finish position.
  9. The average off odds.
  10. The average odds for the horse (or trainer, jockey, etc.) when they win
 

The new data appears in columns 11,12,13 & 14. This info will give you a good indication of how often the horse (or trainer, jockey, owner, etc) does what it is supposed to do. This information is based on Angler data that looks at the "off odds" for each horse and how those odds are ranked.

In every race the horse that has the lowest odds is the favorite and that horse is ranked 1st in off odds. The longest shot in the race is ranked last.  A horse that goes off as the 1:9 favorite in a race is ranked 1st in off odds, a horse that goes off as the 2:1 favorite in another race is also ranked 1st in off odds. The actual odds don't matter here, just the rank - lowest odds are ranked 1st, horses with highest odds are ranked last.

In a perfect world the horse that is ranked 1st (lowest odds) should run 1st, and a horse that is ranked 4th (4th choice in odds) should run 4th. We all know that rarely happens, and these stats are designed to help you profit from that.

11 - HTB as Favorite.
Does the horse hit the board when its supposed to? If the horse is ranked 1, 2 or 3 in off odds (one of the top 3 betting choices) it should run 1st, 2nd or 3rd.  Looking at all of the races in the sample this shows you what % of the time the horse performs well when expected to.

12 - HTB not Favorite. Does the horse hit the board when its NOT supposed to? If the horse is ranked 4th or worse in off odds (not one of the top 3 betting choices) and it ends up running 1, 2 or 3 then it is running better than expected. Horses, trainers, jockeys, etc that have a high number in this column are potential longshots.  They have been underestimated in the past by the betting public and have hit the board when they were not expected to.
13 - OTB as Favorite. Shows you when the horse does NOT hit the board when its supposed to. If the horse is ranked among the top 3 betting choices and FAILS to run 1st, 2nd or 3rd you will see that percentage in this column. If a horse has a very high percentage in this column it is a "money burner".
14 - OTB. This shows you how often the horse does not hit the board and was not expected to hit the board (kind of a sad statistic). The horse is not expected to do well and it doesn't. If a horse has a big number here it lets you know that the horse is usually not a favorite and runs poorly.
This is a fantastic tool for spotting potential overlays and underlays, and also will help you decide when to pull the trigger on a potential longshot (horse often hits the board when its not expected to) or toss a vulnerable favorite (horse has shown that it will fail to HTB when it should).

This information is available in each table in Angler Analysis and really helps you to see which horses, jockeys, owners, trainers can do well when they should - and more importantly - do well when they are not supposed to.

Give Angler Analysis a try now: BirdDog Free Race

The full version of Angler should be ready early next week (knock on wood). If you are currently a subscriber to Betmix (monthly or yearly) then you will have access to Angler and Angler Analysis as part of your current subscription.

Starting August 1st, Angler and Angler Analysis will be part of the Betmix Pro subscription plan and will be offered at a higher subscription rate, so if you are currently not subscribed you might want to jump in now...

How often does the favorite win a horse race?

Handicapping Blog

On average favorites win about 35% of horse races.  But, that win percentage can fluctuate based on the distance, surface, class, etc. For example, favorites are more likely to win dirt races than turf races. Another thing that will obviously make a big difference in the win % of favorites is the number of horses in the race. Favorites will win more often in small fields than in races with a lot of other entrants.

We recently looked at a large sample of data in Angler for races that had 8 horses starting. These races contained all tracks, distances, surfaces, classes, etc. The only consistent thing was that they had 8 starters.

We wanted to look at each horse in those races based on their rank in terms of their final odds. The horse with the lowest odds is the favorite, and the horse with the highest odds was the 8th choice.

AnglerOdds

 

The table above shows you how often a horse runs better, worse or as expected.

If a horse was the favorite, they couldn't run better than expected (as they were expected to win) and the 8th choice couldn't run worse than expected (it was expected to finish last).

The favorites in these 8 horse races won 35.4% of the time and ran worse than that 64.6% of the time.  Worse could be anything from 2nd through 8th. The 2nd betting choice ran as expected (2nd) 20.7% of the time and ran better than expected 21.6% of the time and ran worse than expected (3rd through 8th) 57.7% of the time.

As you look through the table you will notice some interesting things:

The betting public is better at deciding which horse will win than which horse will finish last.

In races with 8 horses the winner will be among the top 4 betting choices 82% of the time.

Horses that are the 5th choice will run better than expected 45.9% of the time, which puts them on a lot of superfecta tickets.

While this information is not all that surprising, it should help you think in general terms about percentages and odds. If you want to make money betting on horses you need to be betting against the favorite in the races that it is going to lose, and as you can see that happens more often that not (64.6% of the time). If you are betting on a horse that is the 5th choice or higher you are only going to win about 18% of the time. A horse could be the 5th choice and have odds of 7:1 or it could be the 5th choice and have odds of 12:1 or more. So, when you consider the general percentage chance that you have of beating the public opinion make sure you are going to be paid accordingly if you are right.

Finding the value plays is the key, and using Betmix will get you there. Betmix angler will help you find value plays and give you answers to almost any statistical question you have about horse racing data.

 

 

 

Betmix Angler

Handicapping Blog, , ,

We've been hard at work on a fantastic new tool called "Angler".

An angle is simply a trend that has occurred in the past with enough frequency to be profitable that you use as a guide to find bets in the future. More on angles and Angler later....

Our Angler interface is not quite ready yet, but we have started mining that data, and have made some really neat stuff available to you in Bird Dog.
Click on the options tab in BirdDog:

Then put a check by "Angler Analysis"

When you add that widget to BirdDog you can grab a massive amount of data about the horses, trainers, jockeys, owners, sires, post positions and odds for the race you are looking at.

This table shows you information about what each horse in the race has done over the last 2 years.

Take a look at the first horse, #1 Favorite Coach.

He is in post #1, and has run 19 races over the last 2 years.

If you would have bet $2 to win on Favorite Coach in every one of his races you would have made a profit of $27.40.  He is a profitable horse for a bettor. If you would have bet $2 win on #6 Fleet Gold Digger in each of his 23 races you would have lost $39.60 - not a profitable horse.  Does this matter?  Are certain horses better spotted by their connections?  Does a profitable horse mean that it wins at big odds?  Are certain horses always over bet and never win?

If you spend a little time looking at the info in this table you can learn quite a bit.

Favorite Coach wins 21% of the time, runs at least 2nd 53% of the time and hits the board 68% of the time.  His average finish position is 2.95, his average odds are about 8:1 and when he wins he going off at about 7:1.

Angler Analysis will show you similar data for Trainers, Jockeys, Owners, Sires, Post, Off Odds, etc.

People are very familiar with Trainer and Jockey stats, but we are going to show you owner stats too. Do certain owners win more often than others?  Why is that? Is it just because they have a few good horses or is it because they manage their stables better?  Are they more involved with placing their horses in the right spots and hold their trainers more accountable for results?
Do you want to bet on a horse owned by someone who is a proven winner, or do you want to take your chances betting on a horse owned by someone who never seems to find the winner's circle?
So many questions...

If you want to win consistently betting on horses you need to be very curious. You should always be wondering why something happened and know what kind of chances you have with a particular horse.

BetMix Angler (Coming Soon!) will allow you to ask virtually any question you can think of and get an answer.  When you find a profitable "angle" you can save it and then find those situations when they occur in the future.

We have been working on Angler since early this year and we believe it will be the most valuable handicapping tool you will ever use.

ANGLER will be part of BETMIX PRO, a new subscription level that will be priced higher than our normal subscription rate.

But - if you are currently a subscriber to Betmix you will not be charged more to access Angler or to use the Angler Analysis widget in BirdDog.  As long as you are a subscriber in good standing you will get all of the benefits of Angler at your current subscription level.

Give it a try now:  BirdDog Free Race of the day

 

All new subscriptions through the month of July will also be upgraded to Betmix Pro, so if you are interested in what Angler can do and like what you see when you use the Angler Analysis widget then please become a monthly or yearly subscriber prior to August 1st so that you do not have to pay the higher rate for BetMix Pro.

Learn more about Angler Analysis and ANGLER in this video: