Category Archives: Handicapping Blog

Betmix Tip – Handicapping Journal

Handicapping Blog

In addition to all of the horse specific handicapping data we compile at Betmix, we maintain data about each race track. You can find some of that information in the Handicapping Journal, and more detailed stats about each racetrack and race type on any individual race page.

The handicapping journal shows you very helpful information about longshots, exactas, trifectas and superfectas from the previous day as well as statistics about trainers, jockeys and sires. You can also find information about how often favorites are winning at each track and by race type. The Handicapping Journal is available for free everyday.

 

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For specific stats about a race type, such as today's free race, click on the TRACK REPORT button.

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Betmix Tip – Handicapping Overview

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There are many great tools in Betmix to help you handicap. Creating a mix (a group of factors and weights) that are specific to a race type is always going to be the best approach. Some people may find that process a bit confusing at first, so to help new users get out of the gate quickly with Betmix we have a very simple and visual tool called Handicapping Overview. You can use this great guide in any race in Betmix using the BirdDog interface.

The Handicapping Overview will display the rankings of each horse in the race based on 19 different handicapping models. At the bottom of the chart all of those rankings are rolled up into a consensus with point totals.

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Top 10 – Uses a weighted blend of the 10 most important factors for the race type

Win% – Uses a weighted blend of the factors with the best win percentages

Hit The Board – Uses factors that predict high percentage of horses that ran 1, 2 or 3

Blend – Uses a mix of factors from each category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, etc.)

Longshot – Uses a mix based on factors with high win ROI numbers.

Overall Rankings – Uses the ideal setting from Overall Rankings. This is based on the setting that predicted the most exactas within the top 4 ranked horses of the sample of similar races.

FACTOR GROUPS

These rankings will give you an idea of how the horses rank within each category using a weighted mix of the factors within that group. Factors that are more highly ranked within the group will be given more weight. You can click on the buttons the represent each factor to see the mix used. To the left of each Factor Group button you will see a “Signal Strength” icon that indicates how strong the factor group is in relation to the other groups. Four Green Bars in the icon is the best and means that the factors within that group are most important for the race type you are handicapping.

SCORE & BIRDDOG

The “Score” rankings are based on ranking the horses using the default factors in the main horse table:

Last Finish Position, Lengths Beaten, Speed Last Race and Class Difference. The score rankings are computed by looking at each horse's rank within each of those factors and they give you a solid look at horses most qualified to compete in today's race.

The “BirdDog” rankings use the top 10 factors from the BirdDog table. This table looks at a large number of similar races with the same amount of starters as the race you are handicapping. If you are handicapping a 6f dirt claiming race with 8 starters, the BirdDog stats will be based on a large group of races that were 6f dirt with exactly 8 starters. The BirdDog table lets you see how often a horse wins when ranked at a certain position. The BirdDog ranks takes the 10 best factors for the race type and computes a score from that.

MixBot

The MixBot performs a few tasks for you very quickly. It searches the database for the most recent similar race (Track, distance, surface, class) and then runs MixMaker to find out how that race was optimally handicapped. It will then apply that mix to the race you are currently handicapping. It will then repeat the process for the most recent similar race won by a favorite, medium priced horse and most recent similar race won by a longshot. The results of these mixes will provide you with a very accurate way of looking at today's race.

COMBINED RANKINGS

The combined results of all of the rankings (Quick Handicapping, Factor Groups, Score & BirdDog)

Factoring Pedigree – 2016 Belmont Stakes Contenders

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Pedigree is perhaps the most important factor in analyzing a horse's ability to navigate the testing 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes. Here are pedigree snapshots of this year's Belmont contenders:

Exaggerator
Sire: Curlin (Progeny average winning distance (AWD): 7.59 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree*: Curlin, Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer
Like his sire, Exaggerator is a Preakness Stakes winner who is competing in all three Triple Crown races. Curlin finished a close second to the A. P. Indy filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes and is the sire of 2012 Belmont winner Palace Malice. Exaggerator is out of a mare by Vindication, a grandson of American Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew out of a great-granddaughter of English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky II.

Destin
Sire: Giant's Causeway (Progeny AWD: 8.74 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Secretariat, Bold Ruler
Giant's Causeway has the longest progeny average winning distance of any sire in this year's Belmont Stakes field. No surprise there as many Giant's Causeway's face the starter in Europe where distance racing is still prevalent (and relevant). Destin's dam was a 9-furlong Grade 1 winner and is by a 10-furlong Grade 1 winner Siberian Summer. Her dam is by Breeders' Cup Classic champ Skywalker. Destin is a full brother to Creative Cause, who finished 5th in the Kentucky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness.

Suddenbreakingnews
Sire: Mineshaft (Progeny AWD:7.34 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Afleet Alex
His late-running style suggests he'll run to the moon and back and so does his pedigree. He's by Mineshaft, a son of Belmont winner A. P. Indy who was twice a Grade 1 winner at 10 furlongs in his Horse of the Year season. Suddenbreakingnews' dam, Uchitel, was winless in three starts but is daughter of Afleet Alex, the last runner to complete the Preakness/Belmont double.

Creator
Sire: Tapit (Progeny AWD: 7.50 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Damascus, Summing, Northern Dancer (x2)
“You get a lot of comfort from his pedigree and how much stay is in his pedigree.” That quote comes from trainer Steve Asmussen. Aside from being a son of the A. P. Indy grandson Tapit, his dam is the tough mare Morena, a 12-furlong Group 1 winner in her native Peru before placing in five U. S. graded races. Morena is a granddaughter of distance influence Private Account, a son of Preakness winner Damascus. Her dam is by Belmont winner Summing.

Click here to watch Belmont Stakes contender race replays on the Betmix YouTube channel

Stradivari
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro (Progeny AWD: 7.63 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Damascus, Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer
As a son of El Prado and grandson of the great European stallion Sadler's Wells, Medgalia d'Oro sires runners more than capable at Classic distances. This is evidenced by his progeny's average winning distance, a healthy 7.63. Stradivari's dam, however, was a straight one-turn runner and you have to back to the fourth generation of her pedigree to find any distance/Classic influences.

Brody's Cause
Sire: Giant's Causeway (Progeny AWD: 8.74 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Northern Dancer, Majestic Prince
Like Destin, Brody's Cause is a son of Giant's Causeway. The female side of his pedigree shows a nice blend of speed and stamina. His dam, Sweet Breana, placed in two of the three Canadian Filly Triple Crown races. She's bred on the Mr. Prospector/Roberto cross, Roberto being an Epsom Darby winner and top North American distance influence. Her pedigree also shows Sadler's Wells and Majestic Prince, who fell just short of the 1969 Triple Crown with a 2nd place finish in the Belmont Stakes.

Cherry Wine
Sire: Paddy O'Prado (Progeny AWD: 7.45 furlongs, one crop/35 winners)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Unbridled, Northern Dancer
Cherry Wine is from the first crop of Paddy O'Prado who, like Medaglia d'Oro, is a son of El Prado and grandson of Sadler's Wells. Paddy O'Prado ran third in Super Saver's Kentucky Derby before going on to become a 10-furlong Grade 1 winner on the turf. His dam, C. S. Royce, won her only two races on the grass and it's a good bet that Cherry Wine will ultimately find the most success on the lawn. C. S. Rouce is a granddaughter of 1990 Kentucky Derby hero Unbridled, but her pedigree is otherwise stacked with speed influences.

Lani
Sire: Tapit (Progeny AWD: 7.50 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Unbridled, Sunday Silence, Northern Dancer (x2)
Tapit is the sire of 2013 Belmont winner Tonalist and Lani shows a trio of Kentucky Derby winners in his pedigree to go with three Belmont winners. If the quirky colt fails in the Belmont Stakes it won't be because of his pedigree.

Governor Malibu
Sire: Malibu Moon (Progeny AWD: 7.09 furlongs)
Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Easy Goer, Bold Ruler, Northern Dancer
For a son of A. P. Indy, Malibu Moon's progeny average winning distance of 7.09 is a little light. He is, however, the sire of 2012 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, who finished 3rd in the Belmont. Governor Malibu is out of a daughter of the Danzig stallion Langhfuhr, both speed influences, but his third dam is by 1989 Belmont winner Easy Goer.

Gettysburg
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile (Progeny AWD: 7.47 furlongs)
Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Empire Maker, Unbridled, Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler, A. P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Conquistador Cielo
Gettysburg is a late addition to the Belmont Stakes to help ensure a reasonable pace. He is owned by WinStar Farm who have major interests in a pair of late-running Belmont contenders. Creator is owned by WinStar and Exaggerator will reside in the WinStar stallion barn upon retirement. Just a staked-placed runner, Gettysburg may be a cut below on form but his pedigree is well-suited to the race as there are five Belmont winners, two Derby winners & a Preakness champ in the first five generations of his pedigree. Oh and he's also a son of Pioneerof the Nile, sire of a certain 2015 Triple Crown winner.

Wild About Deb
Sire: Eskendereya (Progeny AWD: NA/in South Korea)
Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer (x2)
The Peter Pan Stakes 3rd-place finisher is by Florida Derby (G1) winner Eskendereya, a son of Giant's Causeway. Eskendereya couldn't quite get over the hump as a sire and was exported to South Korea. His dam, Smarty Deb, was a multiple stakes winner at Emerald Downs. She's a daughter of Smart Strike (sire of Curlin, etc.) and her second dam is by the first Breeders' Cup Classic winner, Wild Again.

Trojan Nation
Sire: Street Cry (Progeny AWD: NA/deceased)
Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Summer Squall, Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Northern Dancer (x2)
"We think the horse has talent and he's bred to go the distance" - co-owner Aaron Sones. While Trojan Nation's talent could be called into question (he's never won a race) the assertion that he's bred for a Classic distance cannot. He's a son of Street Cry, sire of the likes of Zenyatta and Derby winner Street Sense. His dam, Storm Song, was named champion at two after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She's a daughter of 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall, a half-brother to A. P. Indy.

Forever d'Oro
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro (Progeny AWD: 7.63 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Lemon Drop Kid, Damascus, Seattle Slew, Northern Dancer
With just a nose Maiden victory on the ledger Forever d'Oro will be one of the longest shots in the 2016 Belmont. He's a son of distance influence Medaglia d'Oro out of Kentucky Oaks winner Lemons Forever, a daughter of 1999 Belmont Stakes champ Lemon Drop Kid. Lemons Forever has been a fantastic producer for breeder Charles Fipke. She's the dam of a pair of Grade 1 winners from her first four foals, Unbridled Forever (the 7-furlong Ballerina Stakes) and Forever Unbridled (the 9-furlong Apple Blossom Stakes).

Seeking the Soul
Sire: Perfect Soul (Progeny AWD: 7.58 furlongs)
American Triple Crown race winners in pedigree: Secretariat, Monarchos, Damascus, Bold Ruler
Like Forever d'Oro, Seeking the Soul is a Charles Fipke homebred trained by Dallas Stewart. This team ran 2nd in last year's Preakness at 28-1 with Tale of Verve, a son of the Fipke-owned stallion Tale of Ekati. They also teamed up with Golden Soul, a son of Perfect Soul, to run 2nd in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Perfect Soul is a son of Sadler's Wells out of a daughter of Secretariat. His biggest wins on the track were middle-distance turf events and he's yet to hit it big at stud. Mr. Fipke is no doubt encouraged by his recent Classic successes and is seeking to further bolster his breeding program by putting Forever d'Oro and Seeking the Soul in the Belmont Stakes crosshairs.

*five generation pedigree

Stay tuned for new Betmix pedigree research features that will allow subscribers to quickly analyze a sire's tendencies!

 

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Collected

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The 2016 Preakness Stakes field is comprised of 11 runners, three of whom are multiple graded stakes winners in North America. Handicappers can quickly guess that Nyquist and Exaggerator are two of three. But the third? That's the Bob Baffert-trained Collected.

The City Zip colt captured the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita back on January 9 (with fellow Preakness contender Laoban in third) and the April 16 Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. Sandwiched in between are a fourth place run as the favorite in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and an easy wire-to-wire victory in the Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes.

In the Lexington (watch below), Collected broke from post 10 and pressed the pace set by 40-1 shot One More Round. The colt settled nicely under Javier Castellano and that's something he's improved on in all of his races. He's a developed into a speed horse who can be rated.

Watch the Sham Stakes & all Preakness contender replays on the Betmix YouTube channel

“The Preakness has been the plan since the Lexington,” said Baffert. “He’s a fast little horse with a lot of speed, and we figure he deserves a shot, especially with the shorter (than the Derby) distance. We’ll have fun. We have a nice, fast horse who tries hard.”

Betmix subscribers can check out the new PaceCast feature in BirdDog to see how Collected's presence will affect the early pace in the Preakness.

Bob Baffert has won the Preakness on six occasions, all with runners who had started in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish with a 'fresh horse' was with the fifth-place Senor Swinger in 2003.

Collected's sire City Zip has emerged as one of the more consistent stallions in North America. He's actually the top sire of Breeders' Cup winners over the past two years with three champions - Catch a Glimpse (2015 Juvenile Fillies Turf), Work All Week (2014 Sprint), Dayatthespa (2014 F&M Turf). However, the 10-furlong winner Dayatthespa is an outlier for City Zip, not surprising for a son of Carson City who was the last colt to capture all three of the juvenile sprint stakes at Saratoga.

Collected certainly has the speed and class to be a factor at Old Hilltop and bettors can expect the colt to part of the picture for at least the first mile. And should the favorites stub their toes, Collected could well find himself in a perfect spot to collect a whole bunch of black-eyed susans.

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Stradivari

Handicapping Blog

There will be several 'new shooters' to greet Kentucky Derby hero Nyquist in the Preakness starting gate on May 21. Of those, Stradivari is the lightest on experience but just might be the most intriguing upset possibility.

(Watch 2016 Preakness contender race videos on the Betmix YouTube channel)

The Todd Pletcher-trainee has but three races under his girth - a 4th-place run in an Aqueduct Maiden Special last November followed by pair of scintillating performances in Maiden Special and Allowance company by a combined 25 3/4 lengths.

In early December he dominated a mile and one sixteenth Maiden Special at Gulfstream Park by 11 1/4 lengths (watch below), pressing the early fractions before drawing off. It was a similar story on April 17 at Keenelenad where the final margin was an effortless 14 1/2 lengths in a nine-furlong Allowance. He earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort, only three points off the top Beyers posted so far by Nyquist and Exaggerator (for what it's worth).

Keeneland track announcer Kurt Becker called the race this way:

"Stradivari is under no stress under Johnny V. at the top of the stretch and just keeps widening the margin here."

(Watch Stradivari's Keeneland Allowance win)

Stradivari is by the great stallion Medaglia d'Oro (sire of Rachel Alexandra, Songbird, etc.) out of the multiple graded stakes winner Bending Strings. While the Medaglia d'Oro's can excel at Classic distances (he's a grandson of Sadler's Wells), Bending Strings made all of her serious blacktype cash in one turn events.

Interestingly, Stradivari has never been favored in any of his races thus far and his sporadic racing schedule may have something to do with that. He certainly won't be favored in the Preakness either but he'll likely be part of the early pace at Pimlico, something certainly welcomed by closers like Exaggerator.

Betmix subscribers should be sure to check out the new Betmix PaceCast feature once Preakness entries are drawn to get a good idea of the probable pace scenario. Click here to find out more about PaceCast.

At least for now, Stradivari isn't among those already vanquished by Nyquist and he should have every opportunity to show if he's good enough to put his name on the famed Woodlawn Vase on May 21.

 

BetMix Tip – PaceCast

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We've added a neat new tool to BirdDog that lets you see how a race should unfold based on pace factors.
Its real easy to use, just click on the "Play All" button and you will see a simulation of the race looking at E1 (early), E2 (middle) and Late pace factors. Its a great way to see who might be on the lead early, and who should be running late.

This widget is found in BirdDog, to add it to your screen just click on the options icon and then select "BetMix PaceCast".

The simulation in PaceCast is based on several pace and speed factors for the race type you are handicapping.

Here's a quick video that explains PaceCast:
Give it a try now:  BirdDog Free Race of the day

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Brody’s Cause

Handicapping Blog

In his racing debut last August, Brody's Cause failed to fire as the 3-1 second choice in a Maiden Special on the Ellis Park turf. After that it didn't take long for the chestnut colt establish himself as one of North America's top juveniles - breaking his Maiden at Churchill Downs, scoring in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) over eventual Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Exaggerator and running a sold third to Nyquist in the subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).

His sophomore season has followed a similar dynamic so far. In the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby he ran an inexplicable seventh as the 2-1 favorite before bouncing back in his next start, a handy Blue Grass Stakes (G1) win on April 9. That victory puts him squarely in the Kentucky Derby/Triple Crown mix.

"Brody's Cause just keeps grinding away," is how Keeneland track announcer called the Blue Grass stretch run.

In fact, Brody's Cause worked out nearly identical trips in both of his Grade 1 victories at Keeneland. In the Breeders' Futurity and in the Blue Grass he was content to settle near the back of the field, hustling in to contention midway around the final turn and sustaining that run to wear down the frontrunners.

Watch the Breeders' Futurity and all the major 2016 Kentucky Derby preps on the Betmix YouTube channel.

Owned by Albaugh Family stable, Betmix subscriber and leading bloodstock agent Steve Castagnola is on the team that helped select Brody's Cause at the 2011 Keeneland September Yearling sale.

There was certainly a lot to like about this $350,000 colt's pedigree. He's a son of Giant's Causeway, a consistent source of top class two-turn runners around the world. There is plenty of class and stamina on the bottom side of the pedigree too. His dam, Sweet Breanna, placed in a pair of Canadian Triple Tiara contests. She is a daughter of Sahm, by Mr. Prospector out the great mare Salsabil, winner of the Epson Oaks and Irish Derby. Sweet Breanna's dam is the Roberto mare Sweet Roberta, runner up to Hall of Famer Go for Wand in the 1989 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

There is may be a lack of brilliance in this year's sophomore colt crop at present but there are plenty of intriguing runners who have the stamina to get home first in an upcoming Classic. Brody's Cause is one of them and if he has luck on his side it's very easy to envision him draped in a garland of roses or Black-Eyed Susans or carnations.

Betmix Tip – BirdDog Handicapping Overview

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We've added a few items to the Handicapping overview widget (found in BirdDog) that should make things a bit easier.

There are now check boxes by each section and group.  When something is checked it will be part of the consensus score, if it is not checked it will not be used.

We have also updated the MixBot section. You will see the mix for the most recent race, most recent favorite (paid under $6.00), most recent mid-range winner (paid between $6 - $15) and most recent longshot (paid over $15.00)

Take a look at this short video for more information:
Give it a try now:  BirdDog Free Race of the day

 

Triple Crown Contender Profile – Creator

Handicapping Blog

On February 12 Creator finished second to a horse named Call the Colonel in a Fair Grounds maiden special, the fifth straight loss of his racing career. Just over two months later the colt is a Grade 1 winner and one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.

Creator was able to find the winner's circle in his next outing 15 days later at Oaklawn Park, dominating a maiden special by 7 1/4 lengths after a four wide trip. He was five wide while making up 12 lengths to be third in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 19, setting him up for his impressive April 16 victory in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Watch all the major Kentucky Derby preps on the Betmix YouTube channel.

"He made a nice run in the end," jockey Ricardo Santana said of Creator's Arkansas Derby trip, three wide between horses in the final turn. "Last time it was 14 horses. Today it was 12 horses. (Trainer) Steve (Asmussen) told me to be patient, be patient, because you're going to have a lot of horse. It worked out—worked out really good. I hope I have the same trip in the Kentucky Derby."

As of the writing, Creator will be among three Tapit colts in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field (along with Mohaymen & Lani). He was purchased by WinStar Farm for $440,000 at the Keeneland September sale and turned over to soon-to-be Hall-of-Famer Steve Asmussen. Creator is the first horse WinStar has ever sent to Asmussen but there was a plan in mind.

"Steve has had a lot of confidence in this horse from the start," said WinStar CEO Elliot Walden after the Arkansas Derby. "He's been a very high-strung horse in the beginning. I liked what Steve had done with some of the Tapits he's had in the past, so that's why we sent Creator to him. ... I love his style. I love the way he's been brought along. I think based on today's performance that he would have a very good (Kentucky Derby) chance."

The gray colt has a very interesting female pedigree, one that suggests stamina. He's out of the mare Morena, a champion in Peru and a group winner at 11 and 12 furlongs in her native land. She was winless after being imported to the U. S. although she did place in five graded stakes (including two at Churchill Downs). Morena is a daughter of the obscure Private Account stallion Privately Held, who's best race was a second in the 11-furlong Meadowlands Endurance Stakes. There is further stamina in the pedigree from sire of Morena's dam, Chartytin, a daughter of 1981 Belmont Stakes winner Summing.

Creator will seek to become the first Derby winner since Monarchos in 2001 to have entered his sophomore season without a victory. Kentucky Derby bettors may be wise to forgive this colt's early career failures and instead view him as a talented runner who is peaking at precisely the right time.

Betmix Tip – Mixbot

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 If you are using Birddog, and the Handicapping Overview widget you will see some new information in the MixBot section.

The MixBot is performing a few tasks for you.  First of all it will search the database for the most recent similar race.  A similar race is one that was run at the same track, surface, distance and class as the one you are handicapping.

Once it finds that race it runs MixMaker to find the best Mix, then comes back and applies that mix to the current race for you. It will then put those rankings in the Handicapping Overview widget for you. The MixBot will then repeat the process, finding the most recent race won by a favorite (winner paid less than $6.00), and finally the most recent race won by a longshot (winner paid more than $15.00).

When you see the same horses showing up in the top spots for all three mix combinations you can be pretty confident in the selection.

Sometimes the most recent race will be the same as the most recent favorite or longshot race - if that happens then you will only see two lines of rankings in the MixBot section.

Give it a try now:  BirdDog Free Race of the day