It's no exaggeration to say that Exaggerator is one of the most consistent colts in this year's three-year-old crop. He won a pair of graded races last year at two and put it all together in his third start at three, a sensational victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 9.

Exaggerator made his racing debut on June 5, 2015 in a 5-furlong Maiden Special at Santa Anita. He finished a non-threatening 5th that day, 9 1/2-lengths behind a horse named Nyquist. For trivia's sake Annie's Candy was the odds-on favorite over the two eventual Kentucky Derby favorites.

Exaggerator went off as the 2-1 choice in his next start, a 6F Maiden Special at Del Mar and got the money by a nose. Trainer Keith Desormeaux then shipped his budding star east for a very gutsy win in the Saratoga Special (G2). Under jockey Junior Alvarado, the colt was bottled up behind three horses at the top of the stretch before bullying his way between rivals to gain the advantage. He still had a fight on his hands as the Todd Pletcher-trained Saratoga Mischief didn't give up easily. Exaggerator prevailed by 3/4-length at the wire.

With Desormeaux's Hall of Fame brother Kent back in the saddle, Exaggerator performed well when stretched out to two turns last fall. He was runner up to Keeneland-loving Brody's Cause in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and 4th to old friend Nyquist in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) before a rich victory in the Delta Jackpot S. (G3) in the Desormeaux's home state of Louisiana.

There were questions about Exaggerator's distance capabilities from fans, handicappers and even his own trainer before his emphatic 9-furlong victory in the Santa Anita Derby. From a pedigree standpoint Classic distances should be within his capabilities. His sire, Curlin, is a two-time Horse of the Year with wins in the Preakness Stakes (G1), Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and Dubai World Cup (G1) on his racing ledger. At stud his scorecard shows runners like Belmont Stakes (G1) champion Palace Malice and 2015 Travers S. (G1) hero Keen Ice.

Although his dam, Dawn Raid, is a granddaughter of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew his female line is slanted more toward speed. In her racing days Dawn Raid set a 5-furlong track record at Woodbine. She's the daughter of a multiple stakes-placed sprinter and sister to Canadian champion Embur's Song, who was best up to 8.5-furlongs. A little further back in the pedigree we find a champion sprinter (Eternal Search) as well as a Queen's Plate winner (Niigon).

In terms of the Kentucky Derby, the main drawback with Exaggerator may be his form cycle. He popped his best race third off a layoff over a sloppy surface he relished. But bettors searching for a safe and consistent horse (likely at a square price in a 20-horse field) could do worse than Exaggerator. It also helps that he's fast and courageous too.

Back in 1971, Canonero II shipped up from Venezuela to shock the racing world by winning the Kentucky Derby in his very first North American start. The connections of Lani, winner of the March 26 U. A. E. Derby (G2), will try to pull off a similar feat.

Lani was a two-time winner in his native Japan, including a listed stakes victory, before his lucrative score in the Meydan twilight.

In the Derby the colt stumbled badly at the start and fell back to last in the early running. Under the expert and patient guidance of star Japanese rider Yutaka Take, Lani was allowed settle and regained contact with the field midway up the backstretch. By the time they were mid-way around the final turn Lani was contending for the lead as if the incident never happened. However, when Lani reached the eighth pole he was under a hard drive and it looked like he might not have enough left to get past leader Yu Change. But then the script flipped again. Yu Change tired. Lani surged past that rival with enough energy to hold the late-running filly Polar River at bay by less than a length.

Kudos to the grey for overcoming a disastrous start and winning a 1 3/16 dirt race in a foreign land. He'll enter the Kentucky Derby having successfully run the farthest of any of his 19 competitors. And his pedigree is certainly suited for a Triple Crown run being by America's sire sensation Tapit out of a daughter of 1989 Derby/Preakness hero Sunday Silence. His next two dams are by Sadler's Wells and Ribot, sire of several Classic winners each around the world.

But that's where the positives end for Lani. His stretch run on Saturday was not visually impressive and the estimated Beyer Speed Figure came in a lowly 83. The field for this year's $2 million event looked particularly weak as there were no grade/group 1 performers in the mix and only two of the entrants were winners at grade/group level when the gates opened. And then there's the colt's temperament. Like many Tapits he apparently has his personality quirks His trainer Mikio Matsunaga said after the race:

“The Meydan staff has been very kind to us, allowing us to take the best care of Lani as possible. He can be very troublesome so we really appreciated the allowances given to us by the track staff [who allowed him to be saddled away from the crowds].”

There will likely be no such accommodations made at Churchill Downs where a raucous crowd of 150,000 or so will gather on the first Saturday in May.

The last foreign-based horse to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby was Bold Arrangement who was second to Ferdinand in 1986 (after prepping first in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland). Lani has even more history against him as the U. A. E. Derby winner has yet to hit to the board in a U. S. Triple Crown race. Here's breakdown of their finishes:

2000 - China Visit: 6th Kentucky Derby

2001 - Express Tour: 8th Kentucky Derby

2002 - Essence of Dubai: 9th in Kentucky Derby, 6th Belmont Stakes

2009 - Regal Ransom: 8th Kentucky Derby

2012 - Daddy Long Legs: DNF Kentucky Derby

2013 - Lines of Battle: 7th Kentucky Derby

2014 - Toast of New York: 6th Belmont Stakes

2015 - Mubtaahij: 8th Kentucky Derby, 4th Belmont Stakes

Should Lani wear the roses he wouldn't be quite the upset that Canonero II was 45 years ago but he does have much overcome.

In classical mythology Cupid is the god of desire and the son of the war god Mars and the love goddess Venus. In the modern thoroughbred world Cupid is the Rebel Stakes (G2) winner and the son of all-world sire Tapit and the exceptional broodmare Pretty 'n Smart. The contemporary legend also stars Bob Baffert, who is virtually unconquerable when he flies into Oaklawn Park.

Expectations for the equine Cupid were high before he was even born on May 19, 2013. His sire, Tapit, had already risen to six-figure status when Cupid was conceived in 2012 and he's now a record-setting two-time champion sire (and running away with another title so far in 2016). His dam had already produced a pair of graded stakes winners when she visited Tapit's court. Cupid was Hip #160 at the 2014 Keeneland September Yearling sale and the Coolmore partnership of Derick Smith, Michael Tabor and John Magnier won the bidding war that ended with their $900,000 salvo. By that time there was yet another stakes winner on Cupid's catalog page - Indianapolis, his half-brother by Medaglia d'Oro, who had scored in the San Pedro Stakes earlier that year at Santa Anita.

The Coolmore boys haven't placed many horses with trainer Bob Baffert over the years. So it's safe to assume they were immediately thinking 'Classics' by sending the gray colt to the white-haired trainer out west. It's also safe to say the ownership group has gotten exactly what they bargained for - a patiently handled springtime graded winner who seems to be peaking at precisely the right time (and who is already well on his way to being a top stallion prospect).

Cupid failed the find the winner's circle at short odds in his first two starts in late 2015 and early 2016, both sprints. But when sent two-turns for the first time on February 7 Cupid dominated an 8.5F Maiden Special at Santa Anita by 5 1/4 lengths. He was reportedly headed to the Sunland Derby before that race was canceled but Plan B worked out rather well with the win in Arkansas.

Talent is not the question with Cupid. What he has to prove now is that he can carry his speed a Classic distance. Pedigree-wise there are some legitimate concerns about this. His dam was a sprinter as were all three of his stakes-winning siblings. His damsire, Beau Genius, was a listed stakes winner at 10F but made his reputation as a tough-as-nails runner who racked up over a million dollars primarily in middle distance blacktype events. Of course, Tapit can sire any kind of runner and he celebrated his first Classic winner just under two years ago when Tonalist scored in the Belmont Stakes. Cupid will also be six days shy of his actual third birthday on the first Saturday in May.

Plan A for Cupid this time is the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 9 back at Oaklawn Park, a stern 9-furlong test. A passing graded means he'll join another Tapit son, Mohaymen, in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Shadwell Farm has an especially strong hand for the 2016 Classics with a pair of unbeaten colts in Mohaymen and Shagaf. However, Randy Gullat's Twin Creeks Racing has been perhaps the most prolific owner/breeder on the Derby trail over the past six years. Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Destin is the latest Triple Crown hopeful to race the Twin Creeks lime and brown silks.

The run began back in 2010 when Mission Impazible won the Louisiana Derby en route to a 9th-place finish in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Twin Creeks was back in force in 2014 with Sam F. Davis S. winner/Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Vinceremos and Florida Derby winner Constitution, both owned in partnership with WinStar Farm. Constitution would miss the Derby with an injury while Vinceremos finished 17th to California Chrome at Churchill. Twin Creeks also bred and sold To Honor and Serve, a serious Derby contender prior to disappointing third-place finishes in the 2011 Fountain of Youth S. and Florida Derby in the colors of Live Oak Plantation.

In 2016 it's Destin, a $400,000 yearling purchase, who's put it all together over the past four weeks with victories in the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby.

Destin had similar trips in both races. He stalked the early leaders moved to gain the lead the top of the lane and fended off stiff challenges from Rafting (from his outside) in the Sam F. Davis and from the Uncle Mo colt Outwork (to his inside) in the Tampa Derby. Destin set the track record and earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby.

Destin is a full brother to a very high-quality colt, Creative Cause, the best American Classic horse sired so far by Giant's Causeway. Creative Cause was a Grade 1 winner at two and won the San Felipe S. (G2) at three prior to a solid 5th to I'll Have Another in the 2012 Derby. His came back with a third in the subsequent Preakness Stakes (G1) in what was his final career start.

The dam of both colts is Dream of Summer, a multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter who stretched her speed to win the 9F Apple Blossom H. (G1) over a field that included Hall of Famer Ashado. Dream of Summer is a daughter of 10F Grade 1 winner Siberian Summer, a son of Siberian Express who's better known as the great grandsire of Uncle Mo.

Destin will attempt to give his owner another Derby trail stakes victory in the Blue Grass S. (G1), Wood Memorial (G1) or Arkansas Derby (G1). A win in either would likely make the colt no worse than third choice on the first Saturday in May and put Twin Creeks in its best position yet for a Derby trophy.

It wasn't especially pretty. It wasn't especially fast. But Shagaf got the job done in the Gotham Stakes, giving owner Shadwell Farm a second unbeaten Kentucky Derby prospect.

The big talk among racing observers and handicappers leading up to the Gotham was the extreme inside speed bias on the Aqueduct inner dirt course. Shagaf broke well from post two under Irad Ortiz, Jr. and seemingly could have grabbed the golden rail but Ortiz relented and let a hustling Laoban seize the initiative. Shagaf instead settled into third along the inside before being shuffled back to fourth on the backstretch. Ortiz began to ask Shagaf going into the far turn and shifted to the three path for the stretch run. There was no immediate gain on the leaders, Shagaf was still third at the 1/8 pole, but he eventually wore down the speedy Laoban for a workmanlike victory.

The final time of 1:45.90 is the slowest time since the Gotham was moved to the Aqueduct inner track back in 2006 and the Beyer Speed Figure registered at a subpar 87.

The effort can be looked on a little more favorably after reading the comments of trainer Chad Brown, who wasn't interested in going out to win the Gotham battle and risk a chance at victory in the Triple Crown war.

"He took plenty of dirt in the race, which will hopefully serve him well down the road," Brown said of the Gotham win. "I think he gained a lot of experience, it was only his third start and this horse has done everything we asked him to do. I don't think he could've run any better in any of the three races for what we want him to do. I'm very happy with the result and I'm happy with the education he got".

Shagaf's pedigree certainly suggests continued improvement can be expected, with a peak coming closer to Belmont Stakes time in June, or even later. He's by 2006 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Bernardini, one the eight male ancestors in Shagaf's four generation pedigree to have won a Triple Crown race. Half of those won the Belmont. Like Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Gun Runner, Shagaf is inbred to Fappiano, an influence that's dominated the American Classics scene in recent seasons.

If both Shagaf and Mohaymen make it to the first Saturday in May unbeaten Shadwell Farm will be the first owners with two perfect colts in the Derby starting gate since Roy and Gretchen Jackson started Showing Up and Barbaro in 2006. As we know, one of those runners wore the roses.

After a promising juvenile season Gun Runner was on the shortlist of many Kentucky Derby winter book handicappers. With his victories in the February 20 Risen Star Stakes (G2) and the March 26 Louisiana Derby (G2) the Steve Asmussen-trainee heads to Churchill Downs with very strong credentials.

The colt made his belated 2016 debut in the Risen Star and had to overcome some adversity to get his picture taken. He broke a half-beat slow from post five under Florent Geroux, who then put the hustle on to preserve position going into the first turn. The pair nevertheless found themselves in a five-horse school behind early leader Candy My Boy and pace-presser Bistraya. After bumping with favored Airoforce late in the first turn, Geroux again hit the accelerator when an opening appeared and ranged up to third. He then used some more of Gun Runner's speed to secure the inside from Bistraya before tipping out to pounce on Candy My Boy around the far turn. At the eighth pole he went on by a stubborn Candy My Boy and appeared home free before getting late and allowing 40-1 Forevemo and the tough-luck Mo Tom to add some drama to the finish. The final margin of victory was a half-length.

Risen Star Stakes video:

His victory in the Louisiana Derby was far more facile. Again ridden by Florent Geroux, the colt got a smooth stalking trip along the inside after breaking from the rail. When Geroux saw pacemaker Candy My Boy begin to tire around the far turn he pushed Gun Runner through a seam to the outside of that runner (and inside Uncle Walter). The pair gained command at the top of the long Fair Ground stretch and powered home from there for the 4 1/2-length victory.

Watch the Louisiana Derby

Gun Runner is bred to be a good one and he's been handled by his connections like a colt with big Classics potential all along. He didn't debut until mid-September, a win going a mile at Churchill Downs over the odds-on Gametown (a $675,000 juvenile purchase). In his second start he handled two-turns with a 2-length Allowance victory at 1 1/6 miles before running 4th in the KY Jockey Club behind Airoforce, Mor Spirit and Mo Tom on a sloppy/sealed surface. He's now won all four of his start on dry main tracks.

By the unbeaten Candy Ride out the Giant's Causeway mare Quiet Giant, Gun Runner was co-bred by the prolific owner/breeders Winchell Thoroughbreds, who race the colt in partnership with Three Chimneys Farm. Over the years the Winchell family has bred the likes of Wood Memorial (G1) winner (and sire sensation) Tapit, Eclipse Champion Untapable, Hollywood Futurity (G1) winner Valiant Nature and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Olympio (among many others). Quiet Giant counts the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher Stakes among her five blacktype victories and she sold for $3 million at the 2011 Keeneland November sale.

A Classic victory by Gun Runner would be yet another for the Fappiano sire-line that's given us Triple Crown race winners like Unbridled, Grindstone, Real Quiet, Mine That Bird, Empire Maker, Birdstone, Red Bullet and, of course, American Pharoah. Gun Runner's sire, Candy Ride, is by the South American sire Ride the Rails, a son of Fappiano's first Classic runner, Cryptoclearance, who placed in the 1987 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. In fact, Gun Runner is inbred to Fappiano at 4x4.

Gun Runner will seek to become the first Louisiana Derby winner to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May since Grindstone 20 years ago. Grindstone actually made a pitstop in the Arkansas Derby (finishing second) on his way to Louisville.

In the 'old days' Gun Runner might have been disregarded by many Kentucky Derby handicappers for being too lightly raced - just two spring preps and only five career starts. But in 2008 Big Brown won the Derby in his fourth career outing with just an Allowance and Florida Derby victory under his girth that year. Since then five other Derby winners have scored off of a two-race spring regimen - American Pharoah, I'll Have Another (2012), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010) and Mine That Bird (2009).

There is certainly enough quality in Gun Runner's race record (on a fast track), pedigree and human connections for handicappers be extremely bullish on his chances of securing a Classic victory this year.