Twirling Candy is out of the gate with 12 winners so far, the most of any North American first crop sire. Queen of Silence became winner number one on May 25 with a debut victory going 5/8ths on the Gulfstream Park turf course at odds of 10-1. Three more Twirling Candys have won on the grass and two others have earned victories on the all-weather tracks at Woodbine and Presque Isle Downs. 

Overall, the 12 Twirling Candy winners have come at 12 different tracks from California to Oklahoma to Florida and even over the famed course at Epsom Downs in England. 

The connections of these early winners appear to feel they have some quality as evidenced by the fact that six of the winners have come back to compete against stakes company. Two of them, Annie's Candy and Conquest Twitter, have picked blacktype placings.

Half of the sons and daughters of Twirling Candy have won at first asking, two second-time out, while a quartet took a little more time to get going, breaking through in their third starts.

Here's the full breakdown of the first 12 Twirling Candy winners:

*race favorite

Twirling Candy was a speedy and versatile runner on the Southern California circuit so it’s no surprise that we’re seeing his early runners performing on a variety of surfaces.

The son of the brilliant and undefeated Candy Ride went wire-to-wire in his racing debut in November of his juvenile season, a 7F affair over the all-weather surface at Hollywood Park. On the shelf until the following May, he reeled off three more victories, two of them on the grass at Del Mar in the Oceanside Stakes and Del Mar Derby (G2). Twirling Candy suffered his first loss next out against older runners in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes (now the Awesome Again Stakes). He then closed out his three-year-old campaign in with a track record performance, shading 1:20 in the 7F Malibu Stakes (G1) on the Santa Anita main track (1:19.70).

Twirling Candy's dam is a daughter of the Juddmonte Farm-bred turf star Chester House (a half-brother to American Pharoah's grandsire Empire Maker) which helps explain not only his own affinity for the lawn but also his progeny’s. We’ll have to wait and see if the Twirling Candys will excel at longer distances but both of his grandsires were Grade 1 winners at 10 furlongs and his fifth dam produced none other than 1978 Triple Crown hero Affirmed. For now, it's a good idea to give the sons and daughters of Twirling Candy a long look on any surface, at any track, anywhere in the world.

After a full summer of juvenile racing some new sires with first racing two-year-olds (first crop sires) have emerged that need to be kept on handicapper’s radars. One of those is Darley America’s Girolamo.

This son of A. P. Indy, who stood for just a $5,000 stud fee in 2015, is the sire of seven winners already from 20 starters. That figure puts him in a tie for second behind only Twirling Candy (10 winners) among first crop sires. Girolamo stood his first two years at Sequel Stallions New York and four of his early winners have come against state-bred company. He even appears to have a star-in-the-making in She’s All Ready, who’s dominated her first two starts by a combined 11 ¼ lengths, including a win in the $200,000 Seeking the Ante Stakes last Friday at Saratoga.

All seven of Girolamo winners have won at first asking and he’s had a winner on the grass and on a sloppy main track. Three Girolamo firsters have gone off favored with three others returning double-digit mutuels. Here’s a further breakdown of his seven winners:

*race favorite

In his racing days, Girolamo was more of an outlier for A. P. Indy, one of North America’s top late-developing and classic-distance influences. He was favored in his racing debut at Saratoga in mid-August of his juvenile season and didn’t disappoint. Coming out of the Kiaran McLaughlin barn, Girolamo coasted home under Alan Garcia by 3 ¾ lengths in a 7F main track Maiden Special. McLaughlin started him twice more at two with unplaced finishes in the Futurity Stakes & Champagne Stakes the result.

Girolamo's signature wins came later. At 3 he captured in the Grade 2 Jerome Stakes going a one-turn mile at Belmont Park and added the trophy for Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes going 7/8ths the following season.

Girolamo certainly has the pedigree to be a top flight stallion. A. P. Indy is the sire of several successful/important sons - Bernardini, Pulpit, Malibu Moon, Mineshaft, Congrats among them. As is the case with Girolamo, the dams of the latter four are daughters of the great Mr. Prospector (and Bernardini’s dam is a Mr. Prospector great-granddaughter).

Girolamo’s female lineage is also exceptionally strong. The famed Carnegie/Phipps breeding operation cultivated this female family, one that's already produced successful stallions like Private Account, Mutakddim and the Maryland stalwart sire Not For Love (also the damsire of California Chrome). Girolamo’s full sister, Supercharger, is the dam of 2010 Kentucky Derby hero Super Saver, who is also emerging as a new force in the North America sire ranks. The WinStar Farm stallion now has three Grade 1 winners in his first crop, two at this year’s Saratoga meeting (Alabama winner Embellish the Lace and King’s Bishop winner Runhappy).

With this kind of pedigree it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Girolamo’s train on and excel as more distance racing is carded in the coming months. From what we've already seen, his sons and daughters should be respected no matter where they show up.

Available on both the desktop and mobile versions of Betmix, these buttons will give you a very accurate and quick way to handicap any race.

Clicking one of these buttons will create a mix for you based on the detailed race profile stats we compile for each race in Betmix.  Using these buttons individually or in combination can provide you with great handicapping angles in each race. As an example, if you are betting a superfecta, it would be a good idea to use the top ranked horse from each button.  If the top ranked horses are the same you can add the 2nd ranked horse to your tickets.

The TOP 10 button will create a mix based on the top 10 factors for the race type. It will give the most weight to the top ranked factor and a progressively smaller amount to every other factor in the top 10.  This is a good method for identifying the likely contenders in each race.

The WIN % button will create a weighted mix based on the factors that produce the highest percentage of winners. The highest weighted factor will be the one with the highest win %.  This button will identify a top win candidate.

This button will create a mix using factors that are good at identifying horses that will hit the board.  For each factor category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, Trainer Jockey, Class, Form, Pedigree) the factor that is most likely to predict a top 4 finish is weighted and used as part of the mix.  This is a great tool for finding a key horse for Trifectas and Superfectas.

This button creates a mix using the top factor in each category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, Trainer Jockey, Class, Form, Pedigree). The factors are weighted based on their overall rank.  Using this button will identify the most "balanced" horse in the race, the one that ranks highly in each factor category.

This button uses factors that have high WIN ROI$.  Factors with high can identify horses that are potential longshots.  If the highest ranked horse using this mix is going off at high odds, then it means that the horse fits the profile of the typical longshot winner of the race type you are handicapping.

A few mixes to get you started at Keeneland

Another quick handicapping angle...

A few handicapping angles using race profile stats.

The recently improved Race Profile statistics have generated a lot of feedback and enthusiasm. We have received several emails from users about how they use the stats to handicap and we wanted to share a few of those methods with you.It probably goes without saying, but please remember that nothing works 100% of the time. These angles are provided to give you ideas on how to use the stats and provide you with some inspiration for developing your own methods.

We have spot checked these and found them to be pretty good, but have not done any deep analysis to provide long term win/loss statistics.  Again, the purpose of these tips is to provide you with some ideas and perhaps give you a couple of new approaches to put in your handicapping toolbox.

#1 Finding A Single

If you make multi-race bets (Pick3, Pick4, etc.) you know how important it is to find a solid horse to use as s single to reduce the cost of the tickets.  This is simple method to use, and is great at identifying solid favorites that you should never ignore.

How to do it: Look at the top ranked horse in the overall rankings.  If that horse is also the top ranked horse in the top ranked factor it is a one star single.  If it is also the top ranked horse in the 2nd ranked factor it is a 2 star single, and so on. You're not going to find any longshots using this method, but if you are looking for a likely winner this is an easy way to spot one.
#2 High ROI/High Accuracy

We received this angle from a user who also provided a spreadsheet of each of his picks using this method at Gulfstream Park in January and part of February.  His results showed that he made 144 bets ($4 per play) for a total of $576.00. He had 74 wins (51.3%), and collected $980.00 for a ROI of 70.22%.  His average winning payout was $13.25.How to do it: Looking at the top 3 factors only, find the factors with positive Win ROI.  If more than one of those 3 factors have positive win ROI's then look at the Factor Accuracy score.  The factor with the highest Factor Accuracy is the one to use.  If none of the top 3 factors have positive ROI's then skip the race.  If the factor has a positive win ROI , but the factor accuracy is not above 30 skip the race.  When you have a qualifying race you bet the top 2 horses for that factor to win.

#3 Pace Advantage in a top factor

We've talked about this before, but when a horse has a big advantage in a pace factor you can't ignore it. The Race Profile statistics make finding those horses very easy, and can let you know when it matters.  If a horse has an advantage in a factor that is ranked very low overall its not meaningful, but when that factor is in the top 10 it can produce great results.How to do it: Click on the PACE filter to show only pace factors in the statistics box.  Look for a factor that is ranked within the top 10 and see if the top ranked horse has an advantage of 5 points or more.  If you find a horse that fits the bill, consider giving extra attention to that horse if it appears within the top four in one or more of the top speed factors.  A pace advantage combined with being competitive in speed is a winning combination.

#4 Top Factors in each category

In many races you will notice that most of the top factors come from one category - usually speed. When you put too much emphasis on one category your handicapping may be unbalanced.  An easy way to make sure that you get a comprehensive view of the race is to use top factors from each category. You can select the top factor in each category and add it to the BetPad, or you can give them a value with the sliders to create a mix. The values can all be equal, or you can weight them based on their win percentage.It may not be necessary to use the top factor from each category. If the top ranked factor in Pedigree is ranked 27th overall you can safely ignore that category all together.

#5 Use the last race

One user sent us this suggestion along with some documentation of how many exactas he played and hit.  Very impressive!How to do it: Click on the Races Tab to bring up a list of the races used in compiling the race profile stats

After clicking the races tab, you will see a list of all the races used to compile the date for this race type.  Click on the date of the most recent race and that race will open up in a new window in MixMaker.

When that race is loaded, look at the results and then look at the top ranked factors to find one that contained the top 3 finishers.

Now,look for the highest ranked factor that contained those top 3 horses.

Go back to the race you are currently handicapping and look at the top 4 horses for the factor you found, and box those in an exacta. Very easy, and the results were surprisingly good.

These are nice angles to use for quick handicapping, but in the long run you are going to have much more success creating mixes for specific race.  There is nothing wrong with using methods like this, they can produce good results and can be done very quickly.  Keep in mind that the purpose of sharing these angles is to show you that there is always more than one way to skin a cat, and at the end of the day the only thing that really matters is winning the race. It doesn't matter if you used a mix that took you 6 hours to develop, or if you used one of these quick methods.  Cashing a ticket is all that counts!

We hope that you find something useful in these angles and that they inspire you to start looking at the data in new and profitable ways.

Find a Dominant horse using the Race Profile Statistics

We introduced the Race Profile statistics a few weeks ago. You will see them at the bottom of each individual race page and they provide information about winning posts, average winner payout and details about the most predictive factors for each race:

There is a lot of information contained in the Race Profile Stats, and many ways to interpret that data and use it to handicap. One of the many reasons that betting on horses is so intriguing and rewarding is that aside from winning money, there are numerous approaches that you can take to figure out the puzzle. Let's take a look at one way you can use those stats to find great betting opportunities.

Let's start by going over what the information within the Winning Factors box means.  When you look at the factors box you will see information about the most predictive Factors ranked by their ability to predict Win, Place, Show, and a tab called Accuracy that ranks the factors by their predictive ability to get the horses in the correct order from top to bottom.

For this method we are just going to focus on the Win % Factors.

In the above example, I am on the Win % tab which shows the most predictive win factors, and I have clicked on the SPEED category which will display only the factors based on speed.

The race we are looking at is an 8f Dirt CLM race at Indiana Grand from yesterday. If you are a subscriber you can view the race as you follow along.

For 8F Dirt Clm. races at Indiana Grand, the most predictive Speed Factor is AVG SPEED LAST 3. Next to that you see the top 4 horses within that category (6,8,2,5) and the number 32%.  The 32% number means that over the sample of similar races that we have in our database, horses that are ranked the highest within that factor (Avg. Speed Last 3) win 32% of the time. The next most predictive factor is Avg. Best 2 of Last 3, and that factor has accurately predicted the winner 26% of the time.

Looking at the list of factors and the top horses within each factor you could assume that the #6 horse was going to be a major player in this race.  He is ranked 1st in the top 3 most predictive speed factors for this race type.  But, what you cant see by simply looking at the top 4 horses is how closely ranked they are.

In this race there were 3 scratches (#3, #11,#12).  If you are following along at home go ahead and scratch those horses from the race.

Now, lets turn on the factor for Avg Speed Last 3 and see how closely the horses are ranked (By "turn on", I mean give the slider for Best Speed Last 3 a value)

After moving the slider for Avg Speed Last 3, and giving it a value (Turning it "ON") we can see in the rankings view how closely the horses are ranked within that particular factor.

Although the #6 horse is ranked on top he is not "dominant".  There are 3 other horses that are very closely ranked within the factor Avg Speed Last 3. If you turn on the other most predictive speed factor (Avg Best 2 of Last 3) you will see 5 horses in Green.

Although the #6 is ranked on top within the 3 most predictive Speed Factors, he is not heads and shoulders above the rest of the horses. If that is the case then how much importance can you give those factors since there are so many closely ranked horses?

What this tells us is that there are a handful of horses in this race that are equally fast.  We know which speed factors are most predictive at finding a winner, but we cant be very confident in any one horse since they all have similar abilities.

IN A RACE WHERE SPEED SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY EQUAL LOOK FOR A DOMINANT PACE HORSE. 

Now let's take a look at the Pace factors and see which one is most predictive:

This chart shows us that the most predictive pace factor is Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace. The top ranked horses for that factor are (2,4,10,1) and based on similar races the horse that is ranked on top within that factor wins 42% of the time.

When we "turn on" the factor for Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace we see these rankings:

The #2 horse, (Stormanminster) is ranked on top.  He has 100 points and the 2nd ranked horse has 89.8 points.  He is the only horse in "Green" and has a 10.2 point lead over the 2nd ranked horse.  When you have a horse with at least a 5 point lead over his rivals we consider that dominant.  In this case he is very dominant, having over a 10 point lead.

We know from the most predictive factor table for pace that the horse who ranks highest in Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace wins 42% of the time, and we also know that the speed factors do not indicate a dominant speed horse.

The #2 horse won and paid a very generous $28.60.

Look for dominant horses within highly predictive factors
In the above example, the #2 horse was the dominant horse for the Avg of last 3 E2 Pace category. From our race stats we know that factor was very predictive, pointing you to the winner 42% of the time.  If the factor was only able to predict the winner 20% of the time then a dominant horse would not be that important.

Speed and Pace are probably most important
When there are several equally matched speed horses finding a dominant pace horse is very helpful, and when the horses are evenly matched in Pace look for a dominant speed horse.  Finding a dominant horse in other categories like Pedigree, Form, etc. seems to be less important.  While those factor groups are valuable as part of a mix, they do not necessarily dictate how a race will be run.

We will be enhancing the Race Profile Statistics in the near future to indicate which factors contain dominate horses.  Until then it will take you a few clicks to figure it out on the screen.

We can't promise that this approach will work every time (nothing ever does!) but it is a very useful approach when analyzing a race.  To win consistently at the races you need an edge, and this approach can provide you with one.

Winning Posts

This graphic will display the winning posts for this race type and allow you to determine if there is any bias. When looking at certain race types you may decide that the rail is the best place to be, or that a horse has the best chance of winning from the middle or outside. Mousing over any column will show you the number of winners for that particular post.  On the main display you will also see the Program number for each horse and their actual post if it differs from the program number.

Winning Payout

The winning payout graphic will show you how often favorites or longshots win this race type.  It is broken down into four categories: $2.10-$6.00, $6.01 -$10.00, $10.01 - $20.00 and $20.01+.  This data will let you know if this is a race type that is predictable by the public or not. Longshot players can use this screen to find races that tend to produce longshot winners and focus their handicapping on finding a long horse with a big chance. In this example race type you can see that although the race is typically won by favorites, there is also a large number of winners that pay between $10.00 and $20.00.

Races

The Races tab will show you a list of all the similar races that were used to compile the race profile statistics. You can sort by date or payout.  You can click on any of those races and open them up in MixMaker.

Saratoga Longshots

Saratoga is famous for longshot winners. The large field sizes, evenly matched fields, and trainers and owners who are aiming for a win at the track can produce some very high priced winners. What tools does Betmix provide to help you look for those longshots and how will they help you?

The first step is to find which types of races tend to produce more longshots than favorites.  Using the Create My Report Tool you can search by race type and by the amount the horse paid.  Here is the breakdown of the 2013 Saratoga Meet.

The race type that tends to produce the most longshots is Turf Route Races, where 15% of such races produced winners that paid over $20, and 47% of the Turf Route Races at Saratoga had winners pay over $10.  On the other hand, the Dirt Route races tended to produce more winning favorites, with only 5% of those races resulting in winners that paid over $20 and the majority of winners (65%) returned less than $10, with 35% paying $6.00 or less.  So, if you want to find longshots, this type of information will lead you to the types of races you need to handicap.

Once you have the race types that result in more longshot winners you can create a Report that will allow you to analyze what handicapping factors those longshot winners had in common that you can use going forward.

In Create My Report (found in the Tools Dropdown) you can enter the criteria that will build a report for Saratoga Longshots.  Use the following criteria to build the report:
Date Range: July 19, 2013 - September 2 2013
Race Track: Saratoga
Surface: Turf & Inner Turf
Race Type: Select all
Distance: set the distance range to 7.5 furlongs - 1 1/2 Miles
Win Payoff: Set the minimum to $20 and the maximum to $100

You can then add the first 20 races to a report and analyze that in Test My Report. Bringing that report up in Test My Report you can click the Power Factors button to see which factors for Turf Route Races at Saratoga where the win price was greater than $20 produced the most winners, and use those factors to help you build a Mix that you can use to handicap those races at this year's Saratoga meet.  Your Factor report will look very similar to this (depending on which 20 races you selected to include in your report)

Building a Mix weighing the most important factors and not using the least important factors you can then test how many of the Longshot Races you would have hit.  Its a good idea to break this out in more detail and focus on specific Turf Route Races: By distance and Class.  All of that can be done by making the criteria in the Report match the types of races you are looking at.

Of course, this type of analysis can be done for any track, distance, surface, class or pay range.  Many users create multiple mixes for the race types they play and can use this tool to screen for longshots, favorites or other scenarios.

Betmix offers users the ability to handicap races using Mixes, which are a group of factors and values. The Betmix tools offer you a very easy, fast and accurate way to handicap. Creating mixes with the help of MixMaker, or doing deep analysis by creating a report and testing the results will provide you with very accurate insight into how you should handicap races.

Understanding that many people are used to looking at races with a traditional Past Performance view like they would see in the track program or racing form, we have created the PPview (Past Performance View) that will give you a familiar view of the race while also providing you with control over how you see the data and giving yuu the ability to search and rank horses.

The Past Performance view can be seen by clicking the PPView Button:

When you click that button you will see all of the horses with their past performance data in one screen.  One obvious change in comparison to the track program or racing form that you will notice immediately is the color coded running lines.  At any point of call in the race if a horse if far back that position will be be highlighted in red, and if they are on the lead it will be highlighted in green.  Positions in between are shades of orange or yellow.

Looking at the colors, you can easily see which horses are front runners or which horses may be closers.

Each column in the past performance view is sort-able.  You can click on the column headers and the data in that column will be sorted.

You can type values into the search bar and the races you see will be limited to what you searched for.  For example, type BEL 8f Turf and you will only see races that were run at Belmont going 8 furlongs on the Turf.  If you type 'Rosario' into the search box you will see every horse that was ridden by Rosario and can easily see which horses he has ridden in the past and compare that to who he is riding today.

If you click the "Head2Head" button:

You will only see races where horses have run against each other.  This gives you a very quick way to see the key races and find out who has beaten who.

The best way to understand the PPview tool is to jump in ans start playing with it.  You can try it out on the Free Race of the Day, or watch a detailed tutorial video that shows you how to use the Past Performance View.