Find a Dominant horse using the Race Profile Statistics

We introduced the Race Profile statistics a few weeks ago. You will see them at the bottom of each individual race page and they provide information about winning posts, average winner payout and details about the most predictive factors for each race:

There is a lot of information contained in the Race Profile Stats, and many ways to interpret that data and use it to handicap. One of the many reasons that betting on horses is so intriguing and rewarding is that aside from winning money, there are numerous approaches that you can take to figure out the puzzle. Let's take a look at one way you can use those stats to find great betting opportunities.

Let's start by going over what the information within the Winning Factors box means.  When you look at the factors box you will see information about the most predictive Factors ranked by their ability to predict Win, Place, Show, and a tab called Accuracy that ranks the factors by their predictive ability to get the horses in the correct order from top to bottom.

For this method we are just going to focus on the Win % Factors.

In the above example, I am on the Win % tab which shows the most predictive win factors, and I have clicked on the SPEED category which will display only the factors based on speed.

The race we are looking at is an 8f Dirt CLM race at Indiana Grand from yesterday. If you are a subscriber you can view the race as you follow along.

For 8F Dirt Clm. races at Indiana Grand, the most predictive Speed Factor is AVG SPEED LAST 3. Next to that you see the top 4 horses within that category (6,8,2,5) and the number 32%.  The 32% number means that over the sample of similar races that we have in our database, horses that are ranked the highest within that factor (Avg. Speed Last 3) win 32% of the time. The next most predictive factor is Avg. Best 2 of Last 3, and that factor has accurately predicted the winner 26% of the time.

Looking at the list of factors and the top horses within each factor you could assume that the #6 horse was going to be a major player in this race.  He is ranked 1st in the top 3 most predictive speed factors for this race type.  But, what you cant see by simply looking at the top 4 horses is how closely ranked they are.

In this race there were 3 scratches (#3, #11,#12).  If you are following along at home go ahead and scratch those horses from the race.

Now, lets turn on the factor for Avg Speed Last 3 and see how closely the horses are ranked (By "turn on", I mean give the slider for Best Speed Last 3 a value)

After moving the slider for Avg Speed Last 3, and giving it a value (Turning it "ON") we can see in the rankings view how closely the horses are ranked within that particular factor.

Although the #6 horse is ranked on top he is not "dominant".  There are 3 other horses that are very closely ranked within the factor Avg Speed Last 3. If you turn on the other most predictive speed factor (Avg Best 2 of Last 3) you will see 5 horses in Green.

Although the #6 is ranked on top within the 3 most predictive Speed Factors, he is not heads and shoulders above the rest of the horses. If that is the case then how much importance can you give those factors since there are so many closely ranked horses?

What this tells us is that there are a handful of horses in this race that are equally fast.  We know which speed factors are most predictive at finding a winner, but we cant be very confident in any one horse since they all have similar abilities.

IN A RACE WHERE SPEED SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY EQUAL LOOK FOR A DOMINANT PACE HORSE. 

Now let's take a look at the Pace factors and see which one is most predictive:

This chart shows us that the most predictive pace factor is Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace. The top ranked horses for that factor are (2,4,10,1) and based on similar races the horse that is ranked on top within that factor wins 42% of the time.

When we "turn on" the factor for Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace we see these rankings:

The #2 horse, (Stormanminster) is ranked on top.  He has 100 points and the 2nd ranked horse has 89.8 points.  He is the only horse in "Green" and has a 10.2 point lead over the 2nd ranked horse.  When you have a horse with at least a 5 point lead over his rivals we consider that dominant.  In this case he is very dominant, having over a 10 point lead.

We know from the most predictive factor table for pace that the horse who ranks highest in Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace wins 42% of the time, and we also know that the speed factors do not indicate a dominant speed horse.

The #2 horse won and paid a very generous $28.60.

Look for dominant horses within highly predictive factors
In the above example, the #2 horse was the dominant horse for the Avg of last 3 E2 Pace category. From our race stats we know that factor was very predictive, pointing you to the winner 42% of the time.  If the factor was only able to predict the winner 20% of the time then a dominant horse would not be that important.

Speed and Pace are probably most important
When there are several equally matched speed horses finding a dominant pace horse is very helpful, and when the horses are evenly matched in Pace look for a dominant speed horse.  Finding a dominant horse in other categories like Pedigree, Form, etc. seems to be less important.  While those factor groups are valuable as part of a mix, they do not necessarily dictate how a race will be run.

We will be enhancing the Race Profile Statistics in the near future to indicate which factors contain dominate horses.  Until then it will take you a few clicks to figure it out on the screen.

We can't promise that this approach will work every time (nothing ever does!) but it is a very useful approach when analyzing a race.  To win consistently at the races you need an edge, and this approach can provide you with one.

Winning Posts

This graphic will display the winning posts for this race type and allow you to determine if there is any bias. When looking at certain race types you may decide that the rail is the best place to be, or that a horse has the best chance of winning from the middle or outside. Mousing over any column will show you the number of winners for that particular post.  On the main display you will also see the Program number for each horse and their actual post if it differs from the program number.

Winning Payout

The winning payout graphic will show you how often favorites or longshots win this race type.  It is broken down into four categories: $2.10-$6.00, $6.01 -$10.00, $10.01 - $20.00 and $20.01+.  This data will let you know if this is a race type that is predictable by the public or not. Longshot players can use this screen to find races that tend to produce longshot winners and focus their handicapping on finding a long horse with a big chance. In this example race type you can see that although the race is typically won by favorites, there is also a large number of winners that pay between $10.00 and $20.00.

Races

The Races tab will show you a list of all the similar races that were used to compile the race profile statistics. You can sort by date or payout.  You can click on any of those races and open them up in MixMaker.

Saratoga Longshots

Saratoga is famous for longshot winners. The large field sizes, evenly matched fields, and trainers and owners who are aiming for a win at the track can produce some very high priced winners. What tools does Betmix provide to help you look for those longshots and how will they help you?

The first step is to find which types of races tend to produce more longshots than favorites.  Using the Create My Report Tool you can search by race type and by the amount the horse paid.  Here is the breakdown of the 2013 Saratoga Meet.

The race type that tends to produce the most longshots is Turf Route Races, where 15% of such races produced winners that paid over $20, and 47% of the Turf Route Races at Saratoga had winners pay over $10.  On the other hand, the Dirt Route races tended to produce more winning favorites, with only 5% of those races resulting in winners that paid over $20 and the majority of winners (65%) returned less than $10, with 35% paying $6.00 or less.  So, if you want to find longshots, this type of information will lead you to the types of races you need to handicap.

Once you have the race types that result in more longshot winners you can create a Report that will allow you to analyze what handicapping factors those longshot winners had in common that you can use going forward.

In Create My Report (found in the Tools Dropdown) you can enter the criteria that will build a report for Saratoga Longshots.  Use the following criteria to build the report:
Date Range: July 19, 2013 - September 2 2013
Race Track: Saratoga
Surface: Turf & Inner Turf
Race Type: Select all
Distance: set the distance range to 7.5 furlongs - 1 1/2 Miles
Win Payoff: Set the minimum to $20 and the maximum to $100

You can then add the first 20 races to a report and analyze that in Test My Report. Bringing that report up in Test My Report you can click the Power Factors button to see which factors for Turf Route Races at Saratoga where the win price was greater than $20 produced the most winners, and use those factors to help you build a Mix that you can use to handicap those races at this year's Saratoga meet.  Your Factor report will look very similar to this (depending on which 20 races you selected to include in your report)

Building a Mix weighing the most important factors and not using the least important factors you can then test how many of the Longshot Races you would have hit.  Its a good idea to break this out in more detail and focus on specific Turf Route Races: By distance and Class.  All of that can be done by making the criteria in the Report match the types of races you are looking at.

Of course, this type of analysis can be done for any track, distance, surface, class or pay range.  Many users create multiple mixes for the race types they play and can use this tool to screen for longshots, favorites or other scenarios.

Betmix offers users the ability to handicap races using Mixes, which are a group of factors and values. The Betmix tools offer you a very easy, fast and accurate way to handicap. Creating mixes with the help of MixMaker, or doing deep analysis by creating a report and testing the results will provide you with very accurate insight into how you should handicap races.

Understanding that many people are used to looking at races with a traditional Past Performance view like they would see in the track program or racing form, we have created the PPview (Past Performance View) that will give you a familiar view of the race while also providing you with control over how you see the data and giving yuu the ability to search and rank horses.

The Past Performance view can be seen by clicking the PPView Button:

When you click that button you will see all of the horses with their past performance data in one screen.  One obvious change in comparison to the track program or racing form that you will notice immediately is the color coded running lines.  At any point of call in the race if a horse if far back that position will be be highlighted in red, and if they are on the lead it will be highlighted in green.  Positions in between are shades of orange or yellow.

Looking at the colors, you can easily see which horses are front runners or which horses may be closers.

Each column in the past performance view is sort-able.  You can click on the column headers and the data in that column will be sorted.

You can type values into the search bar and the races you see will be limited to what you searched for.  For example, type BEL 8f Turf and you will only see races that were run at Belmont going 8 furlongs on the Turf.  If you type 'Rosario' into the search box you will see every horse that was ridden by Rosario and can easily see which horses he has ridden in the past and compare that to who he is riding today.

If you click the "Head2Head" button:

You will only see races where horses have run against each other.  This gives you a very quick way to see the key races and find out who has beaten who.

The best way to understand the PPview tool is to jump in ans start playing with it.  You can try it out on the Free Race of the Day, or watch a detailed tutorial video that shows you how to use the Past Performance View.

New Betmix tools and features to help you win more races!       

Hope everyone had a profitable Triple Crown season!

We've added a few new features that we hope you will find helpful:

Color Coded Running Lines  
When you bring up the Horse Information Box (Click on the horse's name) you will now see running lines.  We have color coded them to help you easily see the running style of the horse.  The colors are displayed in shades of:  RED (Far back), YELLOW (Mid pack) and GREEN (On the lead).
Here is an example of a classic "Closer", as the colors in the running lines go from Red to Green."

This horse is a typical "Front runner" who is on or near the lead throughout the race

New Tools for Scoring Mixes
When you test or create a Mix in Race Results or Test My Report you are now able to see the profit, number of wins and win %. You will find this useful when you are creating a Mix since you can now build your mixes to find the highest ROI or the most Winners in a particular category.  If you are looking at a sample of 15 races you may find that the most profitable Mix returned a profit of $50 on win bets, but it only picked 3 winners who paid around $25 each, or you may decide to go with the most consistent Mix that picked 9 winners who were shorter prices and returned a profit of $30. As you know, there are several strategies for building Mixes and many users have started creating several Mixes for each race type.  One Mix may focus on finding the most winners, another on potential longshots, and yet another to find the most Trifectas.  Depending on how you like to bet, you should create multiple Mixes tailored to the types of bets you make.

Here is an example of a Mix for 6f dirt Claiming  races at Finger Lakes. Looking at the last 25 races that were run under those conditions the top ranked horse ran at least 3rd in 24 out of 25 races.  The one race that it did not run 3rd was a field of only 4 horses, so there was no show betting! It ran second in that race (05/27). The profit for making a show bet on those 25 races is not enormous, but if you are Show bettor or are looking for a Key horse in your Trifectas or Supers, this would be a good place to start.  If you are interested in adding this Mix to your saved mixes it can be found in the MixLibrary and is called " Finger Lakes 6f Dirt Clm"

MixMaker Results added
In the past when using MixMaker to help you build a Mix you had to click a button to find the race results and then manually enter that information.  Now the information for the top 3 horses is added automatically.  You can also see the finish position for each horse in the race which helps when you go to "tweak" the mix.

We hope that you all find these new features to be useful and that they help you cash more tickets. We have several exciting new features in the works and will continue to work towards making Betmix the most accurate and easy to use handicapping software available!

In order to test your Mixes or create new Mixes, you need to test them against historical results. We have a couple of ways for you to do that....

RACE RESULTS
When you look at the race results page, you can select a date and track,  and then see the results for races on that day.  You can test any of your saved mixes to see how profitable they would have been, or you can create mixes using the results as a guide.

The results box shows you what would have happened if you bet $2 win, place and show on your top ranked horse, and if you boxed the top 3 ranked horses in a $1 exacta and the top 4 in a $1 Trifecta.

You can see from the above results that the mix we used for that day would have returned a profit on Win, Place, Show and Exacta bets and a loss on Trifecta bets.  As you change the factors you are using in your mix or give more or less weight to a particular factor you are using, the results box will update instantly.  You can also apply any saved mix you have to the results and they will update.  This is useful if you are the type of handicapper that uses the same mix for each race type.

If you design your Mixes for specific race types, then you will want to use the My Race Report tool. There you can select a group of similar races using the search features.  So, for example, if you wanted to see how well your Mix did on the past fifteen 7F dirt Claiming races at Gulfstream Park you could do that by searching for those races, and then adding them to a report.

Once you have found a group of races that you want to use in the results, you can click each race to add it to your report.  You give that report a name, then save it, and you can then test it using the results data for those races.

Now, using a group of similar races, you can create a very accurate Mix for predicting the winners of 7F Dirt Claiming races at Gulfstream Park.

For more information on how to use horse racing results data to win more bets watch this tutorial video.

Find any race in the Betmix database

We've added a neat new tool to Betmix called RACE SEARCH. Using this tool you can search our entire database to find any race.  Search by date, track, post time, surface, race type, distance, age/sex, purse or claiming price.

The results will display a list of all matching races - clicking on any race will open it up in MixMaker where you can create a mix or test your existing mixes on similar race types.

Using the Race Search feature will improve your mixes tremendously, and allow you to build very specific mixes for any track or race type. If you have created a 'super mix' for 1 mile turf allowance races, then just search for matching races running today and you will have a short list of races to bet on. This is an enormously helpful tool and we hope you take advantage of all it has to offer.

The race search tool is one of many exciting new features we will be adding in the coming months, and we cant wait to roll them all out...

Introducing BETMIX 2.0 - The best handicapping software available

We've made some major changes to Betmix.com and are anxious to share them with you. The site has been completely redesigned, and there are many new features to help you handicap with greater accuracy.  Here are just a few of the new features we have added...

New Factors, new sliders
We have added several new factors (Speed Last Race, Win %, In the money %, Last Purse, Avg Last 3 Purses, Trainer Jockey Combo win % and Trainer Jock ROI).  In the old version of Betmix, the sliders had to be "turned on", they are now "on" by default but will only be used in calculations when they have a value.

We also made major changes to our database structure that will allow us to easily add new factors (we will be adding more soon!) and create new and exciting analysis tools.

New Tools

Winning Factors allows you to find all the previous wins in our database for a particular horse and instantly compares that winning effort to today's race.  You can quickly see if today's race sets up in a similar way to the last race the horse won.

Your Mix displays all of the factors you have chosen in a pie chart and provides you with a simple graphic explanation of how the computer is interpreting your mix. By mousing over each pie slice you can see the percentage for each factor and the total number of points you have assigned.

Overall Rankings can now be seen on the main screen as well as by hitting the RANKINGS button so that you can get an instant read on how the horses stack up.

Improved MixMaker

 
We have greatly improved the artificial intelligence behind MixMaker.  Now you can choose to create a mix that puts an emphasis on finding the winner or choose to create a mix that finds the trifecta. The accuracy of MixMaker is much better now, as it has the ability to consider all possible factors in any given race.