8.5F on Dirt (July 8) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 19 Horseshoe Indy graded dirt stakes at 8.5 furlongs Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last E2 Pace Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 8 winners (40%, $25.80 Win Return, 164 ROI%), 12 Place (60%, $15.80 Place Return), 15 Show (75%, $7.50 Show Return)
Horseshoe Indianapolis will host its biggest card of the season on Saturday. Horseplayers will be challenged by a total of 8 stakes races, including the graded Indiana Derby and Indiana Oaks for sophomores going a mile and one sixteenth on the main track.
A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Last E2 Pace handicapping factor has pointed 40% winners of this race type while generating a healthy $25.80 Win Return. Among the winners are a pair of Derby winners and 6 Oaks heroines.
Delaware Oaks (G3) at Delaware Park 8.5F on Dirt (July 1) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 18 Delaware Park graded dirt stakes at 8.5 furlongs Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Race Class Factor Stats: 29 contenders, 8 winners (27%, $85.60 Win Return, 247 ROI%), 12 Place (41%), 14 Show (48%, $54.30 Show Return)
Saturday´s co-feature at historic Delaware Park is the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks that has brought together a diverse and competitive field of 10 sophomore fillies.
A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Last Race Class handicapping factor has pointed 27% winners in the 8.5 furlong graded dirt stakes at the Stanton, Delaware oval.
This group includes Calamity Kate who exited the 2015 Grade 1 Acorn Stakes to capture the Del Oaks at a whopping $110.80 win mutuel. Last year's Oaks heroine, Midnight Stroll ($7.20) also ranked first in this factor.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Race Class slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown 9F on Dirt (June 24) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 6 runnings of the Ohio Derby Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed Factor Stats: 6 contenders, 3 winners (50%, $30.20 Win Return, 351 ROI%), 4 Place/Show (66%, $7.80 Place Return, $2.20 Show Return)
Saturday's Grade 3 Ohio Derby kicks of the "second season" for the 3-year-old division. A field of 8 lines up for the $500,000 race, including Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil´s.
With Two Phil´s the likely heavy fave, handicappers will first have to decide if he´s a legitimate standout or is he worth taking a stand against.
A scan of the Betmix Angler online handicapping database reveals that the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed handicapping factor has pointed to half of the last 6 Ohio Derby champions. This group includes Dean Martini, who rewarded his backers with a $31.20 Win mutuel in 2020.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Salvator Mile (G3) at Monmouth Park 8F on Dirt (June 117) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 11 one mile graded dirt stakes at Monmouth Park Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace Factor Stats: 11 contenders, 2 winners (18%, $144.80 Win Return, 758 ROI%), 5 Place (45%), 6 Show (54%)
Saturday's Salvator Mile is one of four Stakes on the Haskell Preview Day card at Monmouth Park and the race has drawn a competitive field of 10.
The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that one-mile graded dirt stakes at the Jersey Shore are relatively rare - just 11 such contests have carded since 2012.
But Angler also reveals that the Last Late Pace handicapping actor has pointed to two recent Salvator Mile champs, one favorite and one huge longshot. Sunny Ridge got the money in 2019 paying just $5.20 while Informative lit up the tote board two years later, paying a whopping $161.60!
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Last Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
Tapit Shoes Tapit - Awesome Flower by Flower Alley All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.62F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 456 Starts, 73 Wins, 16% Progeny at 10F/+: 397 Starts, 48 Wins, 12% Best progeny finish at 12F/+: G1 Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, Essential Quality (12F/Dirt)
The first of two colts by Belmont Stakes king Tapit. It´s no secret that the great Tapit is the sire of a quartet of Belmont Stakes winners and Tapit Shoes is a also a half-brother to 2022 G1 Arkansas Derby and G1 Haskell Inv. (both at 9F) winner Cyberknife. His dam, Awesome Flower, was best up to a mile and is by the Distorted Humor son Flower Alley, a Travers winner whose best moment at stud came when his son I'll Have Another won the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Tapit Shoes gets another stamina boost from his second damsire, Awesome Again.
Tapit Trice Tapit - Danzatrice by Dunkirk All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.62F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 456 Starts, 73 Wins, 16% Progeny at 10F/+: 397 Starts, 48 Wins, 12% Best progeny finish at 12F/+: G1 Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist, Creator and Tapwrit (12F/Dirt)
Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice cost $1.3 million yearling and will be a much lower price than Tapit Shoes to deliver his legendary sire a fifth Belmont Stakes winner. His dam, Danzatrice, was a 3x Stakes winner/G3-placed at 8.5F and is a half-sister to 2018 G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Eclipse Award Champion Jaywalk. Danzatrice is a daughter of the well-bred Unbrided's Song son Dunkirk, runner-up to Summer Bird in the 2009 Belmont. Dunkirk is out of the Kentucky Oaks-winning A. P. Indy dam Secret Status so Tapit Trice´s pedigree shows duplications of both Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Tapit´s damsire) and A. P. Indy, the 1992 Belmont Stakes champion.
Arcangelo Arrogate - Modeling by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: NA Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 17 Starts, 6 Wins, 35.29% Progeny at 10F/+: 20 starters, 2 Wins, 7.14% Best progeny finish at 12F/+: Bold Looker, 2nd in 12F Allowance
As a son of the late, great Unbridled's Song son Arrogate out of a Tapit mare, Arcangelo also shows a duplication of Unbridled in his pedigree (Deputy Minister as well). Arrogate is best known for his stunning victories in the Travers, Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup, all at 10F, and last year's G1 Kentucky Oaks heroine Secret Oath the headliner for his abbreviated stallion career. Arcangelo´s dam is by Tapit and she was sold at auction for $2.8 million even though she never made it to the races. Her hefty price tag is because she hails from one of the truly great female families in the stud book. Most relevant here is the fact that she's a granddaughter of Better Than Honor, dam of not one, but two Belmont winners - Jazil in 2006 and Rags To Riches, the filly who beat the boys in the following year.
National Treasure Quality Road - Treasure by Medaglia d'Oro All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.42F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 222 Starts, 36 Wins, 16.22% Progeny at 10F/+: 164 Starts, 21 Wins, 12.80% Best progeny finish at 12F/+: Spring Quality, 3rd G1 Sword Dancer (12F, Turf)
The Preakness winner is by Quality Road, a great grandson of the speedy and gritty Woody Stephens trainee Gone West (6th in the 1987 Belmont to Bet Twice), who has emerged as one of the top stallions in North America. National Treasure is Quality Road's 15th Grade 1 winner from his first 9 crops and he's out a mare by the Sadler's Wells grandson Medaglia d'Oro. His second dam slants back toward speed as she's by the salty mid-80's sprinter Mt. Livermore, sire of a pair of Eclipse Champion sprinters (Housebuster and Orientate).
Il Miracolo Gun Runner - Tapit's World by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.28F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 19 Starts, 4 Wins, 21.05% Progeny at 10F/+: 21 Starts, 1 Win, 4.76% Best progeny finish at 12F/+: Red Run, 2nd Isaac Murphy S. (12F, Dirt)
Il Miracolo is one of two Belmont starters by young super sire Gun Runner, who ran 3rd to Nyquist and Exaggerator in the 2016 Derby before blossoming into a Horse of the Year, future Hall of Famer and earner of nearly $16 million (2nd only to Arrogate among North American-based runners). Gun Runner is already the sire 6 G1 winners, including a Classic winner in 2022 Preakness hero Early Voting. He has an exceptional record with Tapit mares too as 8 of his 23 starters on this cross have earned blacktype, a 34% strike rate. Those include 2022 G1 Cotillion winner Society and another Belmont hopeful in SW/MGSP Red Route One. Il Miracolo's dam, Tapit´s World was Graded-placed in her racing days, falling a neck short to Grade 1 winner Molly Morgan in the Gardenia S. (G3) going a flat mile. She in turn is a daughter of Higher Ground, winner of the Mazarine S. (G3) at 2 over 8.5F.
Forte Violence - Queen Caroline by Blame All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.65F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 92 Starts, 14 Wins, 15.22% Progeny at 10F/+: 22 Starts, 2 Wins, 9.09% Best progeny finish:at 12F/+: Rumor of Violence, 1st Maiden Special (12F, Turf)
Likely favorite Forte is by the Hill ´n´Dale Farms stallion Violence, a precocious son of Medaglia d'Oro. Violence was a 2YO debut winner going 6F at Saratoga, with future Derby champ Orb back in 3rd. He remained unbeaten that season with subsequent wins in the G2 Nashua S. going a mile and the G1 CashCall Futurity at 8.5F. One of the early faves for the 2013 Classics, Violence started only once at 3, a runner-up showing to none other than Orb in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Forte is his 4th G1 winner and first around 2 turns We can also see from his below 7F progeny Average Winning Distance that 12F is especially rare territory for the Violence runners. Forte´s dam, Queen Caroline, was a 4x Stakes winner on turf at 8 and 8.5F and earned over $400,000. Her sire, Blame, is best known for handing Zenyatta her lone career defeat in the 2010 G1 Breeders´ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. He hails from the distance-oriented sire line of Roberto, through Kris S. and Arch, and is considered one of the rising young broodmare sires.
Hit Show Candy Ride - Actress - Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.08F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 237 Starts, 51 Wins, 21.52% Progeny at 10F/+: 170 Starts, 20 Wins, 11.76% Best progeny finish:at 12F/+: Texting, G3 La Prevoyante (12F, Turf)
Before he developed into one of North America´s leading sires, the unbeaten Candy Ride was a champion miler in his native Argentina before an abbreviated but brilliant 3-race campaign in North America culminating with a sensational victory in the 10F G1 Pacific Classic over Medaglia d´Oro. Hit Show is among Candy Ride´s 5 SWs from just 25 starters out of mares by Tapit, a 20% strike rate. His dam, Actress, was a graded SW at 7F who also captured the G2 8.5F Black-Eyed Susan. Her dam was a champion in Canada while also placing in the 10F Queen's Plate (vs. males) and in the G1 10F Alabama.
Angel of Empire Classic Empire - Armony´s Angel by To Honor and Serve All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.82 Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 27 Starts, 7 Wins, 25.93% Progeny at 10F/+: 6 Starts, 0 Wins Best progeny finish at 10F/+: 0 Starts
Angel of Empire hails from the second crop by Classic Empire, a son Pioneerof the Nile, who is best known as the sire of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah. Angel of Empire's dam, Armory´s Angel, was winless in 8 starts and is a half-sister to GSW miler Conquest Big E. Armory´s Angel is a daughter of the Bernardini son To Honor and Serve, a failed sire who whose signature victory on track came in the 2012 G1 Woodward at 9F over Mucho Macho Man. Angel of Empire's pedigree shows duplications of 1978 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew (5x5) and Miswaki at 4x5. The latter pattern is showing up in more and more in top class European pedigrees, including on the page of last year's G1 12F Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Alpinista.
Red Route One Gun Runner - Red House by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.42F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Belmont dirt: 19 Starts, 4 Wins, 21.05% Progeny at 10F/+: 21 Starts, 1 Win, 4.76% Best progeny finish at 12F/+: Red Run, 2nd Isaac Murphy S. (12F, Dirt)
The second son of Gun Runner in this year's Test of the Champion is more accomplished on the track and his pedigree is more proven at the 12F distance. He´s a full brother to Red Run, who will try to improve on his runner-up finish in the 12F Isaac Murphy S. in the 12F Brooklyn S. (G2) on the Belmont undercard. Their dam, the unraced Red House, is not only by Tapit but she's out of a daughter of the Kris S. son Prized, who beat Sunday Silence on dirt before springing the upset in the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf at 12F (and subsequently winning the G1 San Juan Capistrano at 14F).
Belle Mahone S. (G3) at Woodbine 8.5F on All Weather (June 3, 2023) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 83 Woodbine main track graded stakes at 8.5F Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Trainer/Jockey Combo 2-Year Win % Factor Stats: 86 contenders, 26 winners (30%, $43.50 Win Return, 125 ROI%), 40 Place (46%), 54 Show (63%)
Moira makes her 2023 debut in Saturday's G3 Belle Mahone S. at Woodbine and the reigning Canadian Horse of the Year figures to take attract the bulk of support at the windows. But is she vulnerable?
We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database, that holds data for the past 80+ 8.5F graded stakes on the Woodbine main track, for some insights.
Angler tells us that Trainer/Jockey Combo 2-Year Win % has pointed to 30% winners of this race type and that those winners have generated a very healthy $43.50 Win Return.
Triple Bend S. (G2) at Santa Anita 7F on Dirt (May 27, 2023) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 79 graded dirt stakes at Santa Anita Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Best Speed Last 3 Factor Stats: 95 contenders, 34 winners (35%, $58.40 Win Return, 130 ROI%), 48 Place (50%), 60 Show (63%)
The Triple Bend Stakes is one of two Stakes on the Saturday card at Santa Anita and one of eight big ones over Memorial Day weekend at The Great Race Place.
A field of seven salty sprinters has been drawn for the race that honors the former world record-holder at the 7 furlong distance (1:19.4) so we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for help.
Angler tells us that Best Speed Last 3 has pointed to 35% winners in these 7 furlong graded dirt stakes at Santa Anita and that those winners have generated a very healthy $58.40 Win Return.
Preakness S. (G1) at Pimlico 9.5F on Dirt (May 20, 2023) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 10 Preakness Stakes Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Last Late Pace Factor Stats: 14 contenders, 3 winners (21%, $36.40 Win Return, 230 ROI%), 4 Place (28%, $14.00 Place Return), 6 Show (42%, $5.00 Place Return)
The 2023 Preakness Stakes offers high intrigue as usual. Will Mage become the first Derby winner to capture the Preakness since 2018 or will one of the seven new shooters wear the Black-Eyed Susans?
We turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database for insight and found that the Last Late Pace handicapping factor has been productive in the Preakness in recent years.
In fact, the past three Preakness winners have ranked first in this factor and all of them paid double digits - Early Voting ($13.40), Rombauer ($25.60) and Swiss Skydiver ($25.40)!
Peter Pan S. (G3) at Belmont Park 9F on Dirt (May 13, 2023) Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 23 9F graded dirt stakes at Belmont Park Date Range: January 1, 2012 - Present Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Speed Last 3 Factor Stats: 27 contenders, 15 winners (55%, $25.10 Win Return, 146 ROI%), 20 Place (74%, $8.40 Place Return), 22 Show (81%)
The Kentucky Derby may be in the rearview mirror but there are still some important 3-year-old stakes to be run this spring. Case in point is Saturday´s Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park which has drawn field typical of the recent history of the race. This year´s starting gate includes colts trying to run their way into the Belmont Stakes along with runners just trying to prove they belong at the graded stakes level.
With such an eclectic group we turned to the Betmix Angler online handicapping database and found that the Avg. Speed Last 3 handicapping factor has been helpful in the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Belmont.
Some 55% of the contenders have had their pictures taken while producing a $25.10 Win Return. And over 80% have factored in the trifecta. The winners include a trio of recent Peter Pan heroes - Unified ($3.10), Blended Citizen ($11.40) and Timeline ($2.90) - as well as last year´s Peter Pan runner-up Golden Glider.
(Click on Horse Name to view full 5-cross pedigree)
Forte Violence - Queen Caroline by Blame All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.65F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 245 starters, 25 wins, 10.20% Progeny at 10F/+: 20 starts, 2 wins, 10% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Vibrance, 3rd G3 Red Carpet S. (11F/Turf)
Likely favorite Forte is one of two colts by the Hill ´n´Dale Farms stallion Violence, a precocious son of Medaglia d´Oro (Raise Cain is the other). Violence was a 2YO debut winner going 6F at Saratoga, with future Derby champ Orb back in 3rd. He remained unbeaten that season with subsequent wins in the G2 Nashua Stakes going a mile and the G1 CashCall Futurity at 8.5F. One of the early faves for the 2013 Classics, Violence started only once at 3, a runner-up showing to none other than Orb in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Forte is his 4th G1 winner and first around 2 turns. Forte´s dam, Queen Caroline, was a 4x Stakes winner on turf at 8 and 8.5F and earned over $400,000. Her sire, Blame, is best known for handing Zenyatta her lone career defeat in the 2010 10F Breeders´ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. He hails from the distance-oriented sire line of Roberto, through Kris S. and Arch, and is considered one of the rising young broodmare sires. His daughters have produced nearly 10% blacktype winners from starters, including last year´s Kentucky Oaks co-third choice Kathleen O and this year´s Oaks contender Botanical.
Angel of Empire Classic Empire - Armony´s Angel by To Honor and Serve All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.80 Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 42 starts, 6 wins, 14.29% Progeny at 10F/+: 5 starts, 0 wins Best progeny finish at 10F/+: 0 wins
Angel of Empire hails from the second crop by the Pioneerof the Nile son Classic Empire. This Fappiano sire line has produced 6 Kentucky Derby winners starting with the Fappiano son Unbridled in 1990. Unbridled´s own first crop in 1995 had the Derby favorite (Unbridled´s Song) and Derby winner (Grindstone) and the Fappiano grandson Real Quiet (by Quiet American) scored three years later. Mine That Bird, a son of Grindstone´s Belmont hero Birdstone upset Pioneerof the Nile, a son of Unbridled´s 2003 beaten Derby fave/Belmont winner Empire Maker. Pioneerof the Nile subsequently avenged his Derby defeat as the sire of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah while the Empire Maker grandson Always Dreaming (by 2012 Derby 2nd Bodemeister) wore the roses in 2017. Angel of Empire´s dam, Armory´s Angel, was winless in 8 starts and is a half-sister to GSW miler Conquest Big E. Armory´s Angel is a daughter of the Bernardini son To Honor and Serve, a failed sire who whose signature victory on track came in the 2012 G1 Woodward at 9F over Mucho Macho Man.
Tapit Trice Tapit - Danzatrice by Dunkirk All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.68F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 999 starts, 127 wins, 12.71% Progeny at 10F/+: 391 starts, 48 wins, 12.2% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: G1 Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist, Creator and Tapwrit (12F/Dirt)
Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice probably has the bluest blood of this year´s Kentucky Derby contenders. He´s a $1.3 million yearling by living legend Tapit. While he´s yet to sire a Derby victor, he already has a trio of Belmont Stakes champions on his resume and is considered one of the few, true distance influences among current North American stallions. Tapit Trice´s pedigree also shows duplications of both Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled (Tapit´s damsire) and his own grandsire, Belmont winner A. P. Indy. His dam was a 3x Stakes winner/G3-placed at 8.5F and is a half sis to 2018 G1 Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Eclipse Award Champion Jaywalk.
Two Phil´s Hard Spun - Mia Torri by General Quarters All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.64 Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 443 starts, 52 wins, 11.74% Progeny at 10F/+: 249 starts, 49 wins, 19.6% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Hardest Core, G1 Arlington Million (10F/Turf) & Questing G1 Alabama (10F/Dirt)
Two Phil´s has been a perfect representative of his very good, very versatile sire Hard Spun. A son of the great Danzig, Hard Spun too scored graded victories on dirt and all weather and was a second to Street Sense in the 2007 Run for the Roses (finishing ahead of Curlin). He´s the sire of 15 G1 winners at all distances and on all surfaces, including winners of the 10F Alabama on dirt and Arlington Million on turf. His progeny win at nearly a 20% clip when sent 10 furlongs or longer. Two Phil´s dam Mia Torri is by General Quarters, who qualified for the 2009 Derby with a win in the G1 Blue Grass (over all weather) and scored in the G1 Turf Classic on Derby Day a year later. Mia Torri herself was a multiple SW/G3-placed sprinter in her racing days.
Derma Sotogake (Jpn) Mind Your Biscuits - Amour Poesie (Jpn) by Neo Universe (Jpn) All Progeny Average Winning Distance: NA Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: No starters Progeny at 10F/+: No U. S. starters Best progeny finish at 10F/+: No U. S. starters
Derma Sotogake is by the top sprinter/miler Mind Your Biscuits, who won the G1 Malibu at 7F and the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen at 6F in 2007 and 2008. He also ran 2nd in the G1 Met Mile and G1 Breeders´ Cup Sprint and hails from a speedy branch of the Deputy Minister sire line (Silver Deputy>>>Posse). He does get stamina from the bottom side of his pedigree. His dam was a stakes winner at 10.5F and is by multiple Japanese graded stakes winner Neo Universe, who won the Japanese Derby at 12F. It´s hard to find a top level Japanese pedigree without 1989 Kentucky Derby hero Sunday Silence involved, and indeed Neo Universe is a son of that legendary stallion.
Kingsbarns Uncle Mo - Lady Tapit by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.47F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 373 starts, 54 wins, 14.48% Progeny at 10F/+: 153 starts, 26 wins, 17% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: G1 Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal (12F/Dirt)
Uncle Mo sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist in his first crop and hasn´t looked back. He´s now up to 12 G1 winners, from 6F to 12F, on dirt and turf, including last year´s Belmont Stakes conqueror Mo Donegal. Kingsbarns is one of 4 Derby contenders out of the daughters of Tapit, who is a son of Mo Donegal´s damsire Pulpit. His dam, Lady Tapit, was placed at the G3 level and is a half sister to Gozzip Girl, winner of the grassy G1 American Oaks at 10F.
Raise Cain Violence - Lemon Belle by Lemon Drop Kid All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.65F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 245 starters, 25 wins, 10.20% Progeny at 10F/+: 20 starters, 2 wins, 10% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Vibrance, 3rd G3 Red Carpet S. (11F/Turf)
The ´other´ Violence in the field is out Lemon Belle, a winning daughter of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, who also captured the G1 Travers and G2 Suburban at 10F. Lemon Belle is a half-sister to 2010 G1 Breeders´ Cup Distaff (at 9F) heroine Unrivaled Belle. Should Raise Cain pull off a Derby upset he would be the 15th G1 winner out of a mare by Lemon Drop Kid.
Rocket Can Into Mischief - Tension by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.80F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 818 starts, 136 wins, 16.63% Progeny at 10F/+: 66 starts, 11 wins, 16.6% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Authentic, 1st G1 Kentucky Derby (10F/Dirt)
If you count Mandaloun, who would not run past the subsequently DQ´d Medina Spirit in 2021, 4x leading U. S. sire Into Mischief has a pair of Kentucky Derby winners on his legend-in-his-own time resume. He´s also the sire of the 2020 "pandemic" Derby winner Authentic. The Into Mischief progeny do tend to be best up to 9F and Rocket Can may prove to be a good example of that. He is another out of a mare by Tapit, whose other graded stakes winners as a damsire include 10F G1 Pacific Classic winner Tripoli. Rocket Can´s dam Tension was winless in 2 starts and is herself a daughter Tough Tiz´s Sis, a 2X G1 winner at 8.5F by 2X Breeders´ Cup Classic champ Tiznow.
Hit Show Candy Ride - Actress - Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.12F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 616 starts, 91 wins, 14.77% Progeny at 10F/+: 168 starts, 20 wins, 11.90% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Gun Runner, 1st Breeders´ Cup Classic (10F, Dirt), Shared Belief, 1st G1 Pacific Classic (10F, Dirt), etc.
Before he developed into one of North America´s leading sires, the unbeaten Candy Ride was a champion miler in his native Argentina before an abbreviated but brilliant 3-race campaign in North America culminating with a sensational victory in the 10F G1 Pacific Classic over Medgalia d´Oro. Hit Show is among Candy Ride´s 5 SWs from just 25 starters out of mares by Tapit, a 20% strike rate. His dam, Actress, was a graded SW at 7F who also captured the G2 8.5F Black-Eyed Susan. Her dam was a champion in Canada while also placing in the 10F Queen´s Plate (vs. males) and the G1 10F Alabama.
Confidence Game Candy Ride - Eblouissante by Bernardini All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.12F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 616 starts, 91 wins, 14.77% Progeny at 10F/+:168 starts, 20 wins, 11.90% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Gun Runner, 1st Breeders´ Cup Classic (10F, Dirt), Shared Belief, 1st G1 Pacific Classic (10F, Dirt), etc.
Confidence Game is another son of Candy Ride, who is a grandson of the tough Fappiano son Cryptoclearance. A foal of 1984, "Crypto¨ danced all the dances during his 1987 3-year-old season against the likes of Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch, Gone West and Java Gold, winning the Florida Derby and placing in the Preakness, Belmont and Travers. Confidence Game´s dam, Eblouissante, is by the magnificent broodmare sire Bernardini (by A. P. Indy), whose daughters have produced 15 G1 winners. Eblouissante is a winning half-sister to the great Breeders´ Cup Classic heroine and Hall of Famer Zenyatta (and to G1 9F Santa Oaks winner Balance).
Verifying Justify - Diva Delite by Repent All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.94F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 19 starts, 3 wins, 15.79% Progeny at 10F/+: No starters Best progeny finish at 10F/+: No starters
Verifying has one of the stronger pedigrees in this year´s Kentucky Derby field. He´s from the first crop by 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify out of the G3 Floria Oaks (8.5F) winner Diva Delite, who´s better known now as the dam of 2019 Eclipse Award Champion Midnight Bisou, a 13X SW from 7F to 9F, who earned nearly $7.5 million. No wonder Verifying cost $750,000 as a yearling.
Sun Thunder Into Mischief - Greenfield d´Oro by Medaglia d´Oro All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.80F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 818 starts, 136 wins, 16.63% Progeny at 10F/+: 66 starts, 11 wins, 16.6% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Authentic, 1st G1 Kentucky Derby (10F/Dirt)
Like Rocket Can, Sun Thunder is a son of Into Mischief, whose progeny do tend to be best up to 9F. Unlike Rocket Can, Sun Thunder has yet to break through with his first Stakes victory and his only blackype run was a 2nd in the G2 Risen Star at 9F. His dam, the Medaglia d´Oro daughter Greenfield d´Oro, was winless in 2 starts and she´s a half-sister Radio Silence, a G2-placed juvenile in Ireland. Sun Thunder´s 2nd dam is the Eclipse Champion Female Sprinter Maryfield. So the female line is also slanted toward speed.
Mage Good Magic - Puca by Big Brown All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.08F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 25 starts, 5 wins, 20% Progeny at 10F/+: No starters Best progeny finish at 10F/+: No starters
Mage is one of two colt from the first crop by Good Magic to run his way into the 2023 Kentucky Derby starting gate. A son of Curlin, Good Magic broke his maiden in the 2017 Breeders´ Cup Juvenile at 8.5F and validated that form at 3 with wins in the G1 Blue Grass and G1 Haskell Invitational, both at 8F. He was nearly 10-1 in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and only Triple Crown hero Justify prevented him from wearing the roses. Mage´s dam, Puca, is by 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown and is a half-sister to the millionaire G1-winning turf marathoner Finnegan´s Wake. Puca won the Steve Pini Memorial at 8.32F on Turf (defeating Forte´s dam Queen Caroline) and also ran 2nd in the G2 Gazelle at 9F on dirt. Puca previously produce Gunning, 3rd in Audubon Oaks at 7F.
Disarm Gun Runner - Easy Tap by Tapit All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.29F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 133 starts, 24 wins, 18.05% Progeny at 10F/+: 17 starts, 1 win, 5.88% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Hitting Bombs, 1st Maiden Special (12F, Turf)
Disarm is by young super sire Gun Runner, who ran 3rd to Nyquist and Exaggerator in the 2016 Derby before blossoming into a Horse of the Year, future Hall of Famer and earner of nearly $16 million (2nd only to Arrogate among North American-based runners). Gun Runner is already the sire 6 G1 winners, including 2022 Derby competitors Taiba and Cyberknife, not to mention last year´s Preakness hero Early Voting. He has an exceptional record with Tapit mares too as 8 of his 22 starters on this cross have earned blacktype, a 36% strike rate. Those include 2022 G1 Cotillion winner Society and two other colts on the 2023 Triple Crown prep trail in Red Route One and Dreamlike. Disarm is a half brother to Tap Daddy, who placed in a pair of middle distance Stakes in the U. S. before becoming Champion Stayer in Venezuela.
Disarm Galloping at Churchill Downs
Reincarnate Good Magic - Scat Daddy by Johannesburg All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.08F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 25 starts, 5 wins, 20% Progeny at 10F/+: No starters Best progeny finish at 10F/+: No starters
Reincarnate is the second member of the first crop by Good Magic to run his way into the 2023 Kentucky Derby starting gate. As mentioned in the Mage profile, Good Magic is a Kentucky Derby winner if not for Justify. Reincarnate´s dam, Allanah, is actually a daughter of Justify´s Florida Derby-winning sire Scat Daddy. She won the 6.5F Cincinnati Trophy S. in her racing days and is out of a daughter of the brilliant speedster Holy Bull, beaten fave in the 1994 Kentucky Derby.
Jace´s Road Quality Road - Out Post by Silver Deputy All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.46F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 412 starts, 39 wins, 9.47% Progeny at 10F/+: 161 starts, 20 wins, 12.42% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: 3 G1 winners at 10F - Spring Quality (Turf), Dunbar Road (Dirt), Bleecker Street (Turf)
Jace´s Road is by one of North America´s top stallions in Quality Road, the likely favorite for the 2009 Kentucky Derby if not for an training injury after his convincing wins in the G2 Fountain of Youth and G1 Florida Derby at 8F. Jace´s Road´s dam, Out Post, was a tough turf sprinter in her first career, hitting the board in 13 of her 20 starts and placing in two Stakes races while banking over $200,000. She´s a daughter of the Deputy Minister son Silver Deputy and Jace´s Road is bred on Quality Road´s best cross. Quality Road is the sire of 8 SWs out of mares by Deputy Minister line stallions, including his brilliant G1 winner City of Light (dam by the Deputy Minister son Dehere) and his G1 Kentucky Oaks heroine Abel Tasman (dam by Deputy Minister).
Skinner All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.64F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 655 starts, 95 wins, 14.50% Progeny at 10F/+: 334 starts, 43 wins, 12.8% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Several G1 winners, including Breeders´ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso
Santa Anita Derby 3rd Skinner is by Curlin out of an A. P. Indy granddaughter. Curlin has sired 23 stakes winners and 8 G1SWs, including champions Nest, Malathaat and Stellar Wind, when bred to daughters and granddaughters of A. P. Indy. Like Stellar Wind, Skinner is out of a daughter of Malibu Moon. His dam, Winding Way, was most adept at sprinting with her signature win coming in the 2012 G3 Rancho Bernardo H. at 6.5F at Del Mar.
Cyclone Mischief Into Mischief - Areyoucominghere by Bernardini All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 6.80F Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 818 starts, 136 wins, 16.63% Progeny at 10F/+: 66 starts, 11 wins, 16.6% Best progeny finish at 10F/+: Authentic, 1st G1 Kentucky Derby (10F/Dirt)
With Cyclone Mischief a late addition to the Derby starting gate, super sire Into Mischief will be represented by three colts in the race. His dam, Areyoucoming here, was unplaced in two starts but is a daughter of the the A. P. Indy son Bernardini, whose daughters have already produced 15 G1 winners, not to mention another 2023 Derby contender in Confidence Game (by Candy Ride). Areyoucoming is a half- sister to Suddenbreakingnews, the 2016 G1 Arkansas Derby runner-up (before a 5th place run in the Derby). While Cyclone Mischief is physically built more like a sprinter/miler, there is some distance aptitude on the bottom side of the pedigree with damsire Bernardini and the next two dams being being by Preakness/Belmont hero Afleet Alex and 2-time Prix de l´Arc de Triomphe (12F, Turf) winner Alleged.
Mandarin Hero (Jpn) Shanghai Bobby - Namura Nadeshiko (Jpn) by Fuji Kiseki (Jpn) All Progeny Average Winning Distance: NA Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 112 starters, 15 wins, 13.39% Progeny at 10F/+: 26 starts, 1 win, 3.85% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Alpha Zulu, 1st Maiden Special (10F, Turf)
Like his fellow Japanese-breds Continuar and Derma Sotogake, Mandarin Hero is by a prominent North American runner in Shanghai Bobby. But unlike the sires of those contenders, Shanghai Bobby initially stood in Kentucky so we have some North American data on his progeny. In his racing days, Shanghai Bobby was a precocious son of Harlan´s Holiday (also the sire of Into Mischief), who began his career with five straight victories, including the G2 Hopeful (7F, Dirt), G1 Champagne (8F, Dirt) and G1 Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (8.5F, Dirt). Shanghai Bobby never regained that top level form as a 3-year-old and never sired top level runners consistently enough to avoid being exported to Japan. Mandarin Hero´s dam is by the Sunday Silence son Fuji Kiseki (Jpn), a SW at 8F and 10F. His daughters have produced 5 G1 winners, one at 10F. The rest of the pedigree is also slanted toward one-turn success as the second dam is a granddaughter of champion sprinter Shecky Greene and the 3rd dam is by the classy European miler Known Fact.
King Russell Creative Cause - Believe You Will by Proud Citizen All Progeny Average Winning Distance: 7.03 Betmix Angler Sire Stats Progeny on Churchill dirt: 206 starts, 27 wins, 13.11% Progeny at 10F/+: 61 starts, 7 wins, 11.48% Best progeny finish:at 10F/+: Creative Thinking, 1st Keetana S. (12F, Turf)
King Russell, the last horse to make it into the 2023 Kentucky Derby field is the Airdrie Stud stallion Creative Cause. A son of champion Giant´s Causeway, Creative Cause has had other runners knocking on the Classics door in recent years, namely My Boy Jack (5th in the 2018 Kentucky Derby) and Creative Minister, 3rd in last year´s Preakness. King Russell´s dam, Believe You Will, is a daughter of 2002 Kentucky Derby runner-up Proud Citizen out of the El Prado dam El Fasto. This makes her a full sister to 2012 Kentucky Oaks heroine Believe You Can.
