Xpressbet.com & Horseplayer.com's Jeremy Plonk has been using the Betmix online handicapping database to investigate some common handicapping myths. Read & click below for his January discoveries.
Can You Outsmart the Public?
I crunched the numbers in the Betmix database for every race over the past 5 years, beginning with the start of the 2016 season. I looked at how the public bet every horse in each race – from the favorite down to the 10th wagering choice in a race – and looked at the win percentages for each.
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Are Classier Races More Trustworthy?
You’ll often hear horseplayers lament that they just can’t get a grip on cheaper claiming races, or that maiden races are crapshoots. In turn, they claim to embrace the classier races and horses because they are more confident handicapping them due to their trustworthiness. The general consensus would argue this to be true.
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The Good and Bad of the Rail
Common dirt distances that I studied in the Betmix database are sprints at 6 furlongs, as well as routes as the most common 1-1/16 miles trip. Not only did I study the results by distance, but also field size. Does being on the rail differ in a 6-horse field vs. a fuller field? I also looked at the reliability of rail favorites. The timeframe included all North American tracks over the past 5 years.
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The Career Maiden
We could look at an excessive amount of maiden-breaking attempts as a subjective number. To some, it may be more than 5. Others 10. Even others somewhere in-between or above that total. No matter what your consideration of excessive may be, our ability to look at the numbers in various ranges should be able to give you personal confidence in your assumption, either for or against.
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